Urban Land Institute A Bend in the Road

Transcription

1 Urban Land Institute A Bend in the Road Brian Beaulieu CEO

2 216 Forecast Results 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP % US Ind. Prod % Eur Ind. Prod % Canada Ind Prod % China Ind Prod % Retail Sales % Housing % Employment % ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions. 2

3 US Real Gross Domestic Product Sep '15 Forecast 12 Aug '17 Forecast GDP - 3MMA 1 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 3MMA Source: BEA 3

4 US Industrial Production to US Gross Domestic Product US IP 12 GDP % % % -5.3% GDP US IP -15.5% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12) Sources: FRB, BEA

5 Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities Services Revenue to Gross Domestic Product GDP Trils$ Revenue Bils$ Agencies 7.5% Realtors 9.5% 12 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Legal 3.4% Data P 9.7% GDP Revenue 3MMA Sources: Census Bureau, BEA 45 5

6 US and Minnesota GSP Growth Rate '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 U.S. Minnesota 3/12 Rates-of-Change Source: BEA 6

7 Minnesota to Minneapolis-St. Paul Gross Domestic Product Minneapolis - St Paul 235 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area Minnesota Minneapolis-St Paul Minnesota '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 3MMA Data Trends in Billions of Chained 29 Dollars Source: BEA 255 7

8 US to Minnesota Unemployment Rates Sept 217 MN 3.7% US 4.2% Minneapolis-St. Paul 2.9% 2 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 US Minnesota Source: BLS 8

9 9

10 Real Gross Domestic Product Republican Democrat GDP 3/12 3/12 Rate-of-Change Source: BEA 1

11 S&P5 Stock Prices Index Raw Data Trends Source: Wall Street Journal 11

12 Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) Ratio January 19 August 217 Source: Robert Shiller Yale University Analysis prepared by : Baird Family Wealth Group 9/5/17 12

13 US Treasury 1-Year Bond Nov-'16 Dec-'16 Jan-'17 Feb-'17 Mar-'17 Apr-'17 May-'17 Jun-'17 Jul-'17 Aug-'17 Sep-'17 Oct-'17 Nov-'17 1-Year Bond Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates Source: US Dept of the Treasury 13

14 Data Preparation Raw Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov MMT /12 12MMT /12 DATACAST! 15.9% 13.6% 13.6% 14.3% 14.6% 16.7% 13.3% 12.8% 1.4% 1.4% 26.7% 25.5% 25.2% 22.4% 2.% 18.3% 15.4% 12.7% 3/12 Rate-of-Change = November 217 3MMT November 216 3MMT = = 1.4% /12 Rate-of-Change = November MMT November MMT = = 12.7%

15 R-O-C 2 US Architectural and Related Services Revenue (excluding engineering) 3/12 MMT /12 6.3% 4.% MMT MMT 6-4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 5 15

16 US Median Weekly Earnings (deflated) $ Median Earnings - Raw Data Constant ( ) Dollars Source: BLS 3 16

17 Thousands $53, $48, $43, $38, US GDP per Capita $36,312 $45,56 $52,195 $48,374 $33, $28, $23,31 $28,734 $23, $17,37 $18, $13, Thousands of Constant 21 US Dollars Source: World Bank 17

18 $56, Minneapolis-St. Paul Per Capita Personal Income Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area Per Capita Income $49, $55,148 $42, $35, $36,786 $28, Dollars Source: BEA 18

19 World GDP per Capita Thousands $11, $1, $1,391 $9,59 $9, $8, $7, $6, $5,16 $6,268 $7,163 $8,163 $5, $4, $3,689 $3, Thousands of Constant 21 US Dollars Source: World Bank 19

20 Percent of 216 World GDP by Country *Total 216 World GDP: $ Trillion, US$ Data Source: IMF, *67% of R-O-W figures are IMF estimates 2

21 How Does Manufacturing Contribute to Exports? In 216, about 6 in 1 US Export Dollars came from manufacturers. $797.9B Manufacturers (59.8%) $296.6B Wholesalers (22.2%) $24.6B Other and Unclassified (18.%) Dollars Source: Census Bureau 21

22 World Industrial Production Index to G7 Leading Indicator World IP 15 1/12 Indicator / World IP -1 Indicator -15 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 ' Rates-of-Change Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau For Economic Policy Analysis, OECD 22

23 US Population Growth Region Population, percent change April 1, 21 July 1, 216 US 4.7% Hennepin County 7.% Ramsey County 6.3% Minneapolis 8.1% St. Paul 6.1% Source: Census Bureau 23

24 US to Minnesota to Minneapolis and St. Paul Population Growth Overall Population Growth (21-16) 4.7% 4.1% Minneapolis: 8.1% St. Paul: 6.1% Source: Census Bureau 24

25 Minneapolis-St. Paul to Minnesota to US Education Levels 96% 94% 92% 9% 88% 86% Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area Year-over-Year Growth Rate Percent 12-Month of Population Moving Age Average 25 and over Percent of 12/12 Population Rate-of-Change Age 25 and over Who are High School Graduates Who are *College Graduates 93.5% 92.9% 87.5% 4% 38% 36% 34% 32% 3% 4.5% 34.8% 31.3% 84% 82% Annual Trend: Phase: Year-over-Year: *Bachelor s Degree or Higher Minneapolis-St. Paul MN US 28% 26% Industry Outlook 216: Minneapolis-St. Paul MN US 217: 218: Source: Census Bureau ACS Survey 25

26 US IP 15 US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator Reported in ITR Trends Report ITR Advisor Indicator Indicator - Monthly US IP - 12/ '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 USIP 12/12 Indicator - Monthly Sources: FRB, ITR Economics

27 US Purchasing Managers Index As seen in /12 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 1/12 Rate-of-Change Source: Institute for Supply Management -5 27

28 US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index R-O-C 65 MMA 65 6 Raw Data MMA '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Above 5 Indicates expansion Source: Institute for Supply Management 45 28

29 US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft R-O-C 2 3/12 12/12 6.% 2.2% MMT MMT 12MMT $ '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 29

30 US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excl. Aircraft) to US Machinery Manufacturing Capacity Utilization New Orders 3 Utilization Rate 3 2 1/12 12/ Utilization Rate -3 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 New Orders New Orders Forecast Rates-of-Change Sources: Census Bureau, FRB

31 US Consumer Credit Outstanding Per Capita $ Credit Outstanding 4 2 '48 '52 '56 '6 '64 '68 '72 '76 '8 '84 '88 '92 '96 ' '4 '8 '12 '16 '2 Annual Data Trend in Thousands of Dollars Source: FRB 31

32 Percentage 15 US Auto Loan Delinquency Rate to Percent of US Student Loans Over 9 Days Delinquent to Real Estate Residential Loan Delinquency Rate Percentage Auto Student Residential Year Average Year Average Year Average 6 3 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 212 = 1 Sources: FRBNY, FRB

33 US Delinquency Rates for Commercial & Industrial Loans R-O-C MMA /12 12/12 2.% -15.6% MMA 12MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 ' Percent Source: FRB 33

34 US Total Retail Sales to ITR US Retail Sales Leading Indicator Retail Sales 15 Indicator Retail Sales Retail Sales Forecast Indicator - Monthly '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19-15 Retail Sales = 12/12, ITR Retail Sales = Monthly Sources: Census Bureau and ITR Economics 34

35 US Total Retail Sales to US Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Income Retail Sales 12 Savings Rate Retail Sales Savings Rate '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 12/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Census Bureau, BEA -9 35

36 Single Unit Housing Starts R-O-C 5 MMT /12 12/ % 9.8% MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Million of Units Source: US Census Bureau 36

37 12 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul Housing Vacancy Rates Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area Rental Vacancy Homeowner Vacancy % % '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 2 Percent Source: Census Bureau

38 Minnesota Housing Unit Building Permits R-O-C 12 MMT 125 3/ / MMT 12MMT 18.4% -15.5% '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau 38

39 Minnesota Single-Family Housing Unit Building Permits R-O-C 8 MMT /12 12/12 8.7% 2.9% MMT 12MMT '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau 39

40 US Multi Unit Housing Starts to US Apartment Vacancy Rate Housing Starts 9 Vacancy Rate Housing Starts Vacancy Rate '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Rates-of-Change Source: Census Bureau

41 National Annual Effective Rent Growth Year-over-year apartment rent increase Axiometrics 41

42 R-O-C 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul Single Family Housing Unit Building Permits Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area MMT /12 12/ % 9.9% MMT 12MMT '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 8.5 Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau 1 42

43 R-O-C 15 Minneapolis-St. Paul Housing Unit Building Permits Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area MMT 9 1 3/ / % % MMT 12MMT '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau 43

44 Ramsey County Housing Unit Building Permits R-O-C 4 MMT /12 12/ % '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 3MMT 12MMT 1. Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau

45 Hennepin County Housing Unit Building Permits R-O-C 3 MMT /12 12/ MMT -14.5% MMT '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau 45

46 US Housing Price Index 3 25 $228.3 $ Raw Data 15 1 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 ' = 1 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency 1 46

47 Minnesota Housing Price Index Raw Raw Data, 1991 = 1 Source: FHFA 47

48 3 Minneapolis-St. Paul to Minnesota Housing Price Index Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area Minnesota - Raw Data Minneapolis-St. Paul - Raw Data Raw Data, 1991 = 1 Source: FHFA 48

49 25 US to Minneapolis Median Home Sale Prices Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area $ $ US Median Price 1 5 Minneapolis Median Price '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Annual Data Trends Source: National Association of Realtors 5 49

50 Minnesota Construction Industry Employment R-O-C 3/ /12 5.1% 3.7% MMA MMA 12MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Thousands of Workers, Seasonally Adjusted Source: BLS 8 5

51 Minnesota to Hennepin Construction Employment Minnesota 1 5 Hennepin County 1 4.% 3.7% Minnesota Hennepin County '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 12/12 Rates-of-Change County data through March

52 Ramsey County Construction Employment /12: -6.5% 3/12: -1.3% MMT 12MMT Data Trends, Thousands of Workers Data through March 217, Source: BLS 8 52

53 R-O-C /12 Minneapolis Construction Industry Employment Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area 12/12 4.3% 2.% MMA MMA MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Thousands of Workers Source: BLS 53

54 US Municipal Bond Issuance R-O-C 6 MMT 12 3/ / MMT -7.9% -24.% $ '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 3MMT 2 Billions of Dollars Source : SIFMA 54

55 Minnesota Total Value of Nonresidential Construction (Starts) 8 MMT 8 6 3MMT MMT $ % -4.7% 2 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Billions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 55

56 Minnesota Total Value of Private Nonresidential Construction (Starts) R-O-C 8 MMT MMT 4 12MMT $ % -5.6% 2 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Billions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 56

57 Minnesota Total Value of Retail Construction (Starts) 15 3MMT MMT MMT $1.1 Bils % 28.7% '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 3 Billions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 57

58 Minnesota Total Value of Commercial Construction (Starts) R-O-C 2 MMT MMT 12MMT $ % -38.3% '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 8 4 Millions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 58

59 Minnesota Total Value of Community Construction (Starts) 18 MMT MMT MMT $ % 46.% '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 6 3 Millions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 59

60 Minnesota Total Value of Medical Construction MMT MMT MMT $ % -11.4% '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 4 2 Millions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 6

61 Minnesota Total Value of Government Construction (Starts) 12 MMT MMT MMT -5.8% -29.4% $ '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Millions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 61

62 Minnesota Total Value of Industrial Construction (Starts) R-O-C 12 MMT MMT 12MMT $ % -38.4% '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Millions of Dollars Source: CMD Group 62

63 US Federal Construction Spending 12/12 Phase 3/12 Annual Trend (bils) Direction Nonresidential.3% C -3.8% $21.8 Down Roadways 54.7% C 18.% $1.1 Down Power -45.6% A -13.1% $.9 Up Source: Census Bureau 63

64 US State and Local Government Construction Spending 12/12 Phase 3/12 Annual Trend (bils) Direction Total State & Local -3.6% A -3.7% $255.1 Down Airport Terminals 32.1% C 2.3% $7. Up Runways -27.5% D -3.9% $3.1 Down Bridges -5.4% A -3.8% $29.3 Down Roadways -2.8% D -6.% $87.1 Down Sewer & Water Lines -2.6% D -16.9% $14.9 Down Sewage & Waste -14.7% A -9.2% $19.2 Down Water Supply -9.6% D -8.6% $11.2 Down Source: Census Bureau 64

65 US Consumer Price Index to US Producer Price Index % 2.2% Consumer Price Producer Price '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 1/12 Rate-of-Change Source: FRB -1 65

66 Rig Count 175 United States Overview Weekly Oil Price & Rig Count USD/bbl $ $1 $ Oil Rigs WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks 729 $52.62 $6 $4 $2 Jan 214 Jun 214 Nov 214 Apr 215 Sep 215 Feb 216 Jul 216 Dec 216 May 217 Oct 217 Mar 218 Rigs: Weekly Count WTI: Average Weekly Price Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes $ 66

67 US Total Renewable Energy Consumption Quadrillion Btu Source: EIA 67

68 Local Area Inflation Source: BLS 68

69 Minnesota to Hennepin County Total Full-Time and Part-Time Employment (number of jobs) Minnesota 6 Hennepin County % 1.9% Minnesota Hennepin County /12 Rates-of-Change Annual data through 215, Source: BEA 69

70 Minnesota to Ramsey County Total Full-Time and Part-Time Employment (number of jobs) Minnesota 6 Ramsey County % 1.5% Minnesota Ramsey County /12 Rates-of-Change Annual data through 215, Source: BEA 7

71 US Overall Wage Growth Raw Data '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Percent Source: FRB Atlanta 71

72 Minnesota Average Annual Wages R-O-C 1 3/12 12/12 7.9% MMA % MMT 12MMT $ '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Thousands of Dollars Source: BLS 3 72

73 R-O-C 1 5 Minneapolis-St. Paul Average Annual Wages Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area 3/12 12/12 8.1% 3.6% MMA MMT 12MMT '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Thousands of Dollars Source: BLS 73

74 8 Minnesota to Hennepin County to Ramsey County Average Annual Wages % 3.7% 3.7% Minnesota -4 Hennepin County Ramsey County -6-6 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 ' /12 Rates-of-Change Data through March 217, Source: BLS

75 Employment, Mils 15 North America Robotics New Orders to US Manufacturing Employment Robotics, Ths Employment Robotics '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 5 Data Trends, Millions Employed vs Thousands New Orders Sources: World Steel Association 75

76 Minneapolis-St. Paul Wages BLS, Occupational Employment Statistics, May 216 Source: BLS 76

77 US Federal Government Current Tax Receipts to Consumption Expenditures to Current Transfer Payments to Federal Government Interest Payments Tax/Exp/Paym $3, $2,625 $2,25 $1,875 $1,5 $1,125 $75 $375 $ Current Tax Receipts Consumption Expenditures Current Transfer Payments Interest Payments Interest Billions of Dollars Source: BEA 77

78 ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions. STAY INFORMED! Receive monthly updates on the economy with the subject line ULI