The Vision Council Winds of Change

Transcription

1 The Vision Council Winds of Change Brian Beaulieu CEO

2 Preliminary 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR a year ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP (data through Sep) % US Ind. Prod. (Dec) % Eur Ind. Prod. (data through Nov) % Canada Ind Prod (data through Oct) % China Ind Prod (data through Nov) % Retail Sales (data through Dec) % Housing (data through Nov) % Employment (data through Dec) % ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.

3 All Others Bils $ Revenue Data Trends, All Divisions 3/12 12/12 Lenses -1.2% -2.1% Frames.1%.% Sunglasses -2.2%.4% Readers.9%.8% Readers Bils $ RX Lenses Ophthalmic Frames Plano (Non-Rx) Sunglasses OTC Magnifying Readers '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Billions of Dollars Source: Vision Council.5. 3

4 US Real Gross Domestic Product Sep '15 Forecast Aug '17 Forecast GDP - 3MMA '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 '21 3MMA Source: BEA

5 US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product US IP 12 GDP % % GDP US IP -2.9% -5.3% -15.5% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12) Sources: FRB, BEA

6 Percent of 216 World GDP by Country *Total 216 World GDP: $ Trillion, US$ Data Source: IMF, *67% of R-O-W figures are IMF estimates6

7 World Industrial Production Index to G7 Leading Indicator World IP 15 1/12 Indicator / World IP -1 Indicator -15 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 ' Rates-of-Change Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau For Economic Policy Analysis, OECD 7

8 Net Migration Between States, July 215-July , ,155 Does not include immigration into the US Source: Census Bureau 8

9 State Population Growth Rates Percent Change from Population Estimates 21 to 216 Source: Census Bureau

10 Data Preparation Raw Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan MMT /12 12MMT /12 DATACAST! 15.9% 13.6% 13.6% 14.3% 14.6% 16.7% 13.3% 12.8% 1.4% 1.4% 26.7% 25.5% 25.2% 22.4% 2.% 18.3% 15.4% 12.7% 3/12 Rate-of-Change = JJJJJJJJJJJJJJ 218 3MMMMMM JJJJJJJJJJJJJJ 217 3MMMMMM 1 1 = = 1.4% /12 Rate-of-Change = JJJJJJJJJJJJJJ MMMMMM JJJJJJJJJJJJJJ MMMMMM 1 1 = = 12.7% 18.

11 Rx Lenses Revenue 3MMT MMT 3MMT 12MMT '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Billions of Dollars Source: Vision Council 4. 11

12 Rx Lenses Revenue /12 12/12-1.2% -2.1% '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council

13 Rx Lenses Revenue to US Total Retail Sales Sales 15 Retail Sales Sales Retail Sales '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Vision Council, Census Bureau

14 RX Lenses Revenue to Units of Rx Lenses Sold Sales 1 Units % -2.1% -5-1 Sales Units '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council -1 14

15 Ophthalmic Frames Revenue 3MMT 3 12MMT 3MMT 12MMT '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Billions of Dollars Source: Vision Council 4 15

16 Ophthalmic Frames Revenue %.% /12 12/ '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council

17 Ophthalmic Frames Revenue to US Industrial Production Index Sales 1 US IP Sales US IP '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 12/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Vision Council, FRB

18 Ophthalmic Frames Revenue to US Disposable Personal Income Sales 9 Income Sales Income -4-9 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Vision Council, BEA -6 18

19 Sales 9 Ophthalmic Frames Revenue to Units of Ophthalmic Frames Sold Units % -.4% Sales Units '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council 19

20 Plano (Non-Rx) Sunglasses Revenue 3MMT MMT 3MMT 12MMT '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Billions of Dollar Source: Vision Council. 2

21 Plano (Non-Rx) Sunglasses Revenue % -2.2% /12 12/ '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council

22 Plano (Non-Rx) Sunglasses Revenue to Units of Plano (Non-Rx) Sunglasses Sold Sales 15 Units % -1.% Sales Units '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council

23 Plano (Non-Rx) Sunglasses Revenue to US Total Retail Sales (nominal $) Sales 15 Retail Sales Sales Retail Sales '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Vision Council, Census Bureau

24 OTC Magnifying Readers Revenue 3MMT.25 12MMT 3MMT 12MMT '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Billions of Dollars Source: Vision Council 24

25 OTC Magnifying Readers Revenue %.8% 5-5 3/12 12/ '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18-1 Rates-of-Change Source: Vision Council 25

26 US IP 15 US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator Reported in ITR Trends Report ITR Advisor Indicator Indicator - Monthly US IP - 12/12 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 USIP 12/12 Indicator - Monthly Sources: FRB, ITR Economics

27 US Purchasing Managers Index % As seen in /12 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 1/12 Rate-of-Change Source: Institute for Supply Management -5 27

28 US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index R-O-C 65 MMA Raw Data 12MMA '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Above 5 Indicates expansion Source: Institute for Supply Management 45 28

29 US Stock Prices Index Raw 12MMA Source: Wall Street Journal 29

30 US Treasury 1-Year Bond Oct-'16 Dec-'16 Feb-'17 Apr-'17 Jun-'17 Aug-'17 Oct-'17 Dec-'17 Feb-'18 1-Year Bond Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates Source: US Dept of the Treasury 3

31 1-Year Government Bond Yield 16 Yield on 1 Year Treasury Note % '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Percent Source: FRB

32 US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft R-O-C 2 3/12 12/12 9.7% 4.6% MMT MMT 12MMT $ '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 32

33 US Consumer Credit Outstanding Per Capita $ Credit Outstanding 4 2 '48 '52 '56 '6 '64 '68 '72 '76 '8 '84 '88 '92 '96 ' '4 '8 '12 '16 '2 Annual Data Trend in Thousands of Dollars Source: FRB 33

34 Percentage US Auto Loan Delinquency Rate to Percent of US Student Loans Over 9 Days Delinquent to Real Estate Residential Loan Delinquency Rate Auto Student Residential 11.2 Percentage 15 1 Year Avg Year Avg Year Avg 6 3 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 212 = 1 Sources: FRBNY, FRB

35 US Delinquency Rates for Commercial & Industrial Loans R-O-C MMA /12 12/12.2% -2.3% MMA 12MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 ' Percent Source: FRB 35

36 US Total Retail Sales to ITR US Retail Sales Leading Indicator Retail Sales 15 Indicator Retail Sales Retail Sales Forecast Indicator - Monthly '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19-15 Retail Sales = 12/12, ITR Retail Sales = Monthly Sources: Census Bureau and ITR Economics 36

37 US Total Retail Sales to US Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Income Retail Sales 15 Savings Rate Retail Sales Savings Rate Please Note: Savings inputs shifted forward 23 months '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 ' /12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Census Bureau, BEA 37

38 US Housing Price Index $228.3 $ Raw Data 15 1 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 ' = 1 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency 1 38

39 US Private Sector Employment Private Sector Employment Growth Job Openings Quit Rate Rising 1.7% C 3.2% B Employment Mils of Jobs '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Annual Data Trend Source: BLS 85 39

40 US Overall Wage Growth Raw Data '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Percent Source: FRB Atlanta 4

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42 Rig Count 175 United States Overview Weekly Oil Price & Rig Count USD/bbl $ $1 $ $63.27 $ Oil Rigs WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks $4 $2 Jan 214 Aug 214 Mar 215 Oct 215 May 216 Dec 216 Jul 217 Feb 218 Sep 218 Rigs: Weekly Count WTI: Average Weekly Price Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes $ 42

43 DEPRESSION DRIVERS 43

44 US Tax Rates and Real GDP Growth 9.% 1.% 7.% 9.% 8.% Real GDP Growth Rate 5.% 3.% 1.% -1.% -3.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% Top Marginal Tax Rate -5.%.% Real GDP Growth Rate - 3/12 Top Marginal Tax Rate Sources: Tax Foundation, BEA, 44

45 7% 6% 5% US Corporate Tax Rate and Gross Business Investment Corporate Tax Rate % Gross Business Investment (% of GDP) Linear (Gross Business Investment (% of GDP)) 45 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % '6 '64 '68 '72 '76 '8 '84 '88 '92 '96 ' '4 '8 '12 '16 Percent Sources: Tax Policy Center, FRED 45

46 Percent of Total US Tax Receipts by Source 46 6% 6% 5% 48.8% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% Individual Income Taxes 8.8% Corporation Income Taxes % Percent Sources: Tax Policy Center 1% % 46

47 US Federal Government Current Tax Receipts to Consumption Expenditures to Current Transfer Payments to Federal Government Interest Payments Tax/Exp/Paym $3, $2,625 $2,25 $1,875 $1,5 $1,125 $75 $375 $ Current Tax Receipts Consumption Expenditures Current Transfer Payments Interest Payments Interest Billions of Dollars Source: BEA 47

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49 ITR Management Objectives Preparing for the Future 1. Is your revenue trend sensitive to Disposable Personal Income 2. Determine if your cycles line up with US Total Industrial Production 3. Make sure your training and retention programs are top notch 4. Drive efficiencies with technology 5. Are you positioned where there is a growing demographic 6. Take advantage of still-low interest rates 49

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