EUROINDICATORS WORKING GROUP. Demetra+, a new seasonal adjustment tool 12 TH MEETING 3 RD & 4 TH DECEMBER 2009 EUROSTAT D5 DOC 287/09

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1 EUROINDICATORS WORKING GROUP 12 TH MEETING 3 RD & 4 TH DECEMBER 2009 EUROSTAT D5 DOC 287/09 Demetra+, a new seasonal adjustment tool ITEM 12.2 ON THE AGENDA OF THE MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP ON EUROINDICATORS

2 1. DEMETRA+ A NEW SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT TOOL By Cristina Calizzani (Eurostat B2) and Jean Palate (National Bank of Belgium) BACKGROUND ORIGIN OF THE PROJECT The availability of modern and reliable software tools for seasonal adjustment (SA) at ESS level incorporating complex statistical procedures in a friendly unified environment is an important precondition both for detailed and massive treatment of time series by NSIs and Eurostat. Following the approval by the CMFB and SPC of the ESS guidelines on SA at the beginning of 2008, Eurostat started the development of a new and more modern tool for SA (Demetra+) in order to replace Demetra, the software developed in the 90s which is actually not complying with the guidelines on SA and which has become too costly to maintain and to update according to advances in research. The Demetra+ project aims at providing the ESS with a new SA tool developed in collaboration with the SA user community, which allows the implementation of the guidelines and which is flexible enough to adapt to the change in the core SA routines and to additional and various users' needs. The solution proposed by Eurostat is driven by the IT developments in the domain of time series already available at the National Bank of Belgium (NBB). The architecture is an open solution based on the NBB library of reusable components and allowing fast developments and extensions. The NBB, the Bank of Spain (BoS), the US Census Bureau (USCB), the ECB and Eurostat are closely collaborating to the deployment of the new tool. PROJECT'S ACTORS The Demetra+ project relies on a collaborative development strategy which encompasses several actors having different levels of involvement. Developers' Group A cooperation agreement for the collaborative development of seasonal adjustment tools between Eurostat, the BoS, the USCB and the NBB was signed in December In March 2009 also the European Central Bank (ECB), Directorate General Statistics joined the afore-mentioned organisations. The cooperation agreement foresees that the organisations collaborating on the development of seasonal adjustment tools regularly meet in the developer's group. That group jointly determines the strategy for the development of the SA tools for the ESS; it ensures, according to the resources it can allocate, proper development, maintenance and testing protocols of each component of the infrastructure and it coordinates the policy of revisions and upgrade of the SA engines. Among the developers' group, a special role is played by the NBB. A grant agreement has been signed in July 2009 with the NBB in order to support financially the IT and conceptual developments of Demetra+ until the end of June The objective of the grant is the adaptation and further development of the NBB toolkit to meet the ESS needs as much as possible and to enable the implementation of ESS guidelines on seasonal adjustment. This action will lead to the deployment of an ESS framework for seasonal adjustment for the benefit of the entire ESS. User Testing Group A user testing group was set up at the beginning of The group, whose composition assures a balanced participation of experts of Tramo-Seats, X12Arima and Demetra, brings together 9 experts from NSIs and NCBs plus Eurostat and ECB participants. The main objective of the User

3 2. testing group is to check if the SA tool under development enables the implementation of the guidelines and to what extent it follows the user requirements. In this respect the group should issue recommendations for aligning the tool with the requirements and propose addition/cancellation of options not in line with the guidelines. A community has been created on OSOR ( for the reporting and exchange of experience between the members of the group and for the repository of the DEMETRA+ software. All feedbacks provided by the testers are regularly posted in OSOR and channelled by Eurostat to the NBB. SA Steering Group (SASG) The SASG is the high level group of experts on SA from some NSIs and some NCBs, which is in charge of the coordination of all the activities on SA in the ESS. DEVELOPMENT PHASES The Demetra+ project follows an iterative prototyping approach designed both to improve communication between developers and users, and to help developers and users to figure out the usefulness or consequences of particular designs before having built the entire system. Since the beginning of the developments in 2008, the work plan has been updated constantly and adjusted according to the progress made in order to make the schedule more realistic. The project, which is now at the end of the prototyping phase, is expected to be ended in June 2010 with the release of the beta version of Demetra + (.NET version for Windows). An additional phase has been added to cover the porting to Java (December 2010). DESCRIPTION OF THE SOFTWARE DESIGN Contrary to the previous Demetra, Demetra+ is not a unique monolithic application, but much more a framework, composed of a set of modules that provide services in the seasonal adjustment domain and of several final applications based on those common services. The final applications include a main graphical interface (Demetra+ itself, providing functionalities similar to Demetra 2.2), several Excel add-ins, a console application for batch processing (SACruncher) and a light WEB service. It will be possible to re-use the common modules for the making of in-house developments.

4 3. TramoSeats FORTRAN / BoS X12/X13 FORTRAN / USCB DBs Files TSToolkit Users' defined extensions Demetra+ Excel Addins In-house applications... WEB Service SACruncher WEB Clients The main graphical interface is aimed at providing several facilities to make seasonal adjustment. Users will be able to analyse in details a specific time series (single processing mode) or to process many series at once, in an interactive way (multi-processing mode) or in a completely automated way (batch processing). The software is designed to handle series coming from various sources and to process Tramo-Seats and X12/X13 in a similar way. Demetra+ should meet most of the users' needs. It is able to handle relatively large sets of series (up to ). Larger processing should be handled by means of the fully automated SACruncher tool. On the other hand, the Excel add-ins should be limited to small sets (< 500 series). The different final applications depend on a common layer (TSToolkit), which provides many statistical services, including SA processing. This one is finally rendered by the core engines through fast function calls. MAIN FEATURES The new SA framework presents many different facets, functional, statistical or technological. We present below the most important ones. Encapsulation of Tramo-Seats and of X12/X13 Demetra+, like the previous Demetra, encapsulates the current Fortran core engines of Tramo- Seats and of X12/X13. It means that the actual results of any SA processing are always provided by the routine of the original programs. So, they should be exactly the same as those provided by the original programs.

5 4. The version of Tramo-Seats that will be integrated in the final product will correspond to the last official version of the program (probably published at the beginning of 2010), or at least, to a version that integrates the last improvements of Tramo-Seats (the current prototype is based on a code dated August 2009). Through lack of resources at the US Census Bureau, it will not be possible to include in the first version of Demetra+ the X13 core engine. Demetra+ will be based, at best, on the last version of X12 (build 188 of version 0.3, available at the beginning of December 2009) or, at worst, on the version used in Demetra 2.2. Standardization of SA processing Tramo-Seats and X12/X13 provide very similar features. However, both algorithms slightly differ on many details, on the input side(regression variables...) as well as on the output side (methods, diagnostics...), so that it is not always easy to compare them. One of the main goals of Demetra+ is to standardize as much as possible the two solutions. That standardization takes several forms: - common definition of many input parameters (including some regression variables like the calendar effects) - common graphical interface: most of the results are presented using the same graphical interfaces (layout, charts...); - common output: Demetra+ is able to generate similar output for both methods; more especially, it can produce xml files corresponding to xml schemas valid for both algorithms. - common diagnostics: many diagnostics coming from Tramo-Seats or from X12/X13 can be applied on both methods (for example, regression diagnostics, spectral analysis, sliding spans, revision history...); Demetra+ provide a common set of analysis tools, based on independent implementations; - common auxiliary algorithms: some features, like the benchmarking of the SA series, will be developed in Demetra+. It should be noted that one of the goal of providing standardized tools is to become independent of the core engines. Most of the common modules developed in Demetra+ could be re-used with new implementations of Tramo-Seats and of X12/X13 as well as with new SA methods. Application programming interface (API) The common modules (TSToolkit) consist in.net libraries that can be used in any other.net applications. They provide high level object-oriented services as well as their underlying low-level features. The final applications provided by the framework cannot satisfy every user's need. In some cases, developing in-house applications is the only solution. Using the high-level functions of the framework, the integration of seasonal adjustment processing in such modules is becoming much more straightforward. Advanced users could re-use the low-level modules to provide new analysis tools in the seasonal adjustment domain but also new seasonal adjustment methods (structural models) or even new applications in other loosely related time series domains (benchmarking, temporal disaggregation...).

6 5. Extensible solution Some services provided by Demetra+ may be extended by external developers. New modules will be automatically integrated in the main application, without modifying its code itself. The most important extensible services will be the following: Access to external time series providers: o Demetra+ is already able to handle time series coming from different sources: Excel workbooks, text files, xml files, SDMX files, databases with suitable tables through a generic ODBC interface... o External developers could add their own modules to retrieve time series from specific databases, from specific software (Fame, SAS...) or from any other source (WEB services...) Production of outputs: o Demetra+ is able to produce xml files, text files, Excel workbooks or to send the main results to a generic database (through ODBC). o Users should be able to implement their own handling of the results (for instance to produce html files or advanced Excel workbook...) Diagnostics: o Demetra+ offers a set of pre-defined diagnostics on SA processing o Users should be able to add their own tests. They will be automatically displayed in the graphical interface. Those extensions should be made in a technology compatible with the framework (.NET for the first release of Demetra+ but also Java in the future). A detailed documentation, with some examples, will be provided with the first release of Demetra+. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS The process of development of Demetra+ is very challenging but the results which have been achieved so far and the level of commitment and interest expressed by all the actors involved in the project confirm the suitability and the potentiality of the approach chosen. Additional important issues related to the future governance of Demetra+ have also to be addressed in the next phases of the development. The versioning of the official releases, the property of the tool and the documentation (IT and users') as well as the possibility to release the tool as Open Source, are strategic issues for the success of the project. It is expected that the development of Demetra+ will contribute to the enhancement of expertises and to the harmonisation of seasonal adjustment procedures across institutions in the ESS as it happened in the past with Demetra for Windows. In addition the new SA IT architecture will be flexible and modern enough to cope with the continuous advances in research and with the challenging users' request.

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