L Modeling and Simulating Social Systems with MATLAB
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1 L Modeling and Simulating Social Systems with MATLAB Lecture 4 Cellular Automata Karsten Donnay and Stefano Balietti Chair of Sociology, in particular of Modeling and Simulation ETH Zürich
2 Schedule of the course Introduction to MATLAB Working on projects (seminar theses) Create and Submit a Research Plan Introduction to social-science modeling and simulation Handing in seminar thesis and giving a presentation (final deadlines to be communicated) K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 2
3 Goals of Lecture 4: students will 1. Consolidate their knowledge of dynamical systems, through brief repetition of the main concepts and revision of the exercises. 2. Understand the important concept of Cellular Automata as discrete representations of interactions on an abstract grid (or configuration space). 3. Get familiar with the basic notion of Neighborhoods which is important for the definition of Cellular Automata. 4. Implement simple Cellular Automata in MATLAB (Game of Life, Highway Simulation, Epidemics: Kermack- McKendrick model revisited) K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 3
4 Repetition dynamical systems described by a set of differential equations (example: Lotka-Volterra) numerical solutions iteratively for instances using 1 st Euler s Method (example: Kermack-McKendrick) the values and ranges of parameters critically matter; they determine which dynamics the model represents (Ex. 2, the ratio of recuperation to infection parameter determines the epidemiological threshold) time resolution in Euler Method must be sufficiently high to capture ( fast ) system dynamics (Ex. 3) not all MATLAB-own ODE solvers work equally well for every dynamical system under consideration (Ex. 3) K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 4
5 Projects Suggested Topics 1 Artificial Financial Markets 7 Emergence of Culture 13 Language Formation 19 Specialization of Labor 2 Civil Violence 8 Emergence of Values 14 Learning 20 Traffic Dynamics 3 Collective Behavior 9 Evacuation Bottleneck 15 Opinion Formation 21 Trail Formation 4 Disaster Spreading 5 Emergence of Conventions 10 Friendship Network Formation 11 Innovation Diffusion 16 Pedestrian Dynamics 17 Self-organized criticality 22 Wikipedia 23 Modeling Peer Review 6 Emergence of Cooperation 12 Interstate Conflict 18 Social Networks Evolution 24 Sequential Invest. Game K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 5
6 Project Implementation of a model from the Social Science literature in MATLAB 1 week left: Form a group of two or three persons Choose a topic among the project suggestions (available on line) or propose your own idea Fill in the Research Plan (available on line) and send it to sbalietti@ethz.ch AND kdonnay@ethz.ch by Subject line: [MATLAB FS11] name1,name2,name3 E.g. [MATLAB FS11] donnay, balietti K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 6
7 Research Plan Structure 1-2 (not more!) pages stating: Brief, general introduction to the problem Fundamental questions you want to try to answer Existing literature you will base your model on and possible extensions Research methods you are planning to use Use a Word/Openoffice format, to easily track changes It will become the first page of your report K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 7
8 Research Plan Upon submission, the Research Plan can: be accepted be accepted under revision be modified later on only if change is justified (create new version) Talk to us if you are not sure Final deadline for signing-up for a project has been extended to: Monday March 21 th K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 8
9 Cellular Automaton (plural: Automata) A cellular automaton is a rule, defining how the state of a cell in a grid is updated, depending on the states of its neighbor cells. They are represented as grids with arbitrary dimension. Cellular-automata simulations are discrete both in time and space K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 9
10 Cellular Automaton The grid can have an arbitrary number of dimensions: 1-dimensional cellular automaton 2-dimensional cellular automaton K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 10
11 Moore Neighborhood The cells are interacting with each neighbor cells, and the neighborhood can be defined in different ways, e.g. the Moore neighborhood: 1 st order Moore neighborhood 2 nd order Moore neighborhood K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 11
12 Von-Neumann Neighborhood The cells are interacting with each neighbor cells, and the neighborhood can be defined in different ways, e.g. the Von-Neumann neighborhood: 1 st order Von-Neumann neighborhood 2 nd order Von-Neumann neighborhood K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 12
13 Game of Life N i = Number of 1 st order Moore neighbors to cell i that are activated. For each cell i: 1. Deactivate: If N i <2 or N i >3. 2. Activate: if cell i is deactivated and N i = K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 13
14 Highway Simulation As an example of a 1-dimensional cellular automaton, we will present a highway simulation. For each car at cell i: 1. Stay: If the cell directly to the right is occupied. 2. Move: Otherwise, move one step to the right, with probability p Move to the next cell, with the probability p K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 14
15 Highway Simulation We have prepared some files for the highway simulations: draw_car.m : Draws a car, with the function draw_car(x0, y0, w, h) simulate_cars.m: Runs the simulation, with the function simulate_cars(moveprob, inflow, withgraphics) K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 15
16 Highway Simulation Running the simulation is done like this: simulate_cars(0.9, 0.2, true) K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 16
17 Kermack-McKendrick Model In lecture 3, we introduced the Kermack- McKendrick model, used for simulating disease spreading. We will now implement the model again, but this time instead of using differential equations we define it within the cellular-automata framework K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 17
18 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: S: Susceptible persons I: Infected persons R: Removed (immune) persons β: Infection rate γ: Immunity rate R S γ recovery β transmission I K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 18
19 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: S: Susceptible persons I: Infected persons R: Removed (immune) persons β: Infection rate γ: Immunity rate K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 19
20 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: S: Susceptible persons I: Infected persons R: Removed (immune) persons β: Infection rate γ: Immunity rate K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 20
21 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: S: Susceptible persons I: Infected persons R: Removed (immune) persons β: Infection rate γ: Immunity rate K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 21
22 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: S: Susceptible persons I: Infected persons R: Removed (immune) persons β: Infection rate γ: Immunity rate K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 22
23 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: For the MATLAB implementation, we need to decode the states {S, I, R}={0, 1, 2} in a matrix x. S S S S S S S I I I S S S S I I I I S S S R I I I S S S R I I I S S S I I I S S S S I S S S S S S K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 23
24 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: We now define a 2-dimensional cellularautomaton, by defining a grid (matrix) x, where each of the cells is in one of the states: 0: Susceptible 1: Infected 2: Recovered K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 24
25 Kermack-McKendrick Model The Kermack-McKendrick model is specified as: At each time step, the cells can change states according to: A Susceptible individual can be infected by an Infected neighbor with probability β, i.e. State 0 -> 1, with probability β. An individual can recover from an infection with probability γ, i.e. State 1 -> 2, with probability γ K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 25
26 Cellular-Automaton Implementation Implementation of a 2-dimensional cellularautomaton model in MATLAB is done like this: Iterate the time variable, t Iterate over all cells, i=1..n, j=1..n Iterate over all neighbors, k=1..m The iteration over the cells can be done either sequentially, or randomly K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 26
27 Cellular-Automaton Implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 27
28 Cellular-Automaton Implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 28
29 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 29
30 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 30
31 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 31
32 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 32
33 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 33
34 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 34
35 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 35
36 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 36
37 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 37
38 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 38
39 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 39
40 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 40
41 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 41
42 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 42
43 Cellular-automaton implementation Sequential update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 43
44 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 44
45 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 45
46 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 46
47 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 47
48 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 48
49 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 49
50 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 50
51 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 51
52 Cellular-automaton implementation Random update: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 52
53 Boundary Conditions The boundary conditions can be any of the following: Periodic: The grid is wrapped, so that what crosses a border is reappearing at the other side of the grid. Fixed: Agents are not influenced by what happens at the other side of a border K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 53
54 Boundary Conditions The boundary conditions can be any of the following: Fixed boundaries Periodic boundaries K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 54
55 MATLAB Implementation of the Kermack- McKendrick Model K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 55
56 MATLAB implementation Set parameter values K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 56
57 MATLAB implementation Define grid, x K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 57
58 MATLAB implementation Define neighborhood K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 58
59 Main loop. Iterate the MATLAB implementation time variable, t K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 59
60 Iterate over all cells, MATLAB implementation i=1..n, j=1..n K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 60
61 For each cell i, j: Iterate MATLAB implementation over the neighbors K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 61
62 The model, i.e. updating MATLAB implementation rule goes here K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 62
63 Breaking Execution When running large computations or animations, the execution can be stopped by pressing Ctrl+C in the main window: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 63
64 Exercise 1 Download the files draw_car.m and simulate_cars.m from the course web page, Investigate how the flow (moving vehicles per time step) depends on the density (occupancy 0%..100%) in the simulator. This relation is called the fundamental diagram in transportation engineering K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 64
65 Exercise 2 Download the file disease.m which is an implementation of the Kermack-McKendrick model as a Cellular Automaton. Plot the relative fractions of the states S, I, R, as a function of time, and see if the curves look the same as for the old implementation K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 65
66 Exercise 2b Modify the model in the following ways: Change from the 1 st order Moore neighborhood to a 2 nd and 3 rd order Moore neighborhood. Make it possible for Removed individuals to change state back to Susceptible K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 66
67 References Wolfram, Stephen, A New Kind of Science. Wolfram Media, Inc., May 14, proj_gamelife/conwayscientificamerican.htm Schelling, Thomas C "Dynamic Models of Segregation." Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1: K. Donnay & S. Balietti / kdonnay@ethz.ch sbalietti@ethz.ch 67
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