North American Consumer Digital Camera Forecast:

Transcription

1 June 3, 2008 Abstract North American Consumer Digital Camera Forecast: Report Fast Facts Published: May 2008 Pages: 42 Tables & Figures: 40 Price: $4,770 Order Information To place your order today, contact Michelle Boczanowski at or via infotrends.com Abstract This document presents the 2008 Consumer Digital Camera Forecast for North America along with a comprehensive analysis of the consumer digital camera and imaging market. It includes forecasts for consumer point-and-shoot cameras and digital single lens reflex cameras (DSLRs) through 2013, camera vendor market shares, as well as analysis of the market dynamics and players. About InfoTrends InfoTrends, a Questex Company, is the leading worldwide market research and strategic consulting firm for the digital imaging and document solutions industries. We provide research, analysis, and advice to help clients understand market trends, identify opportunities, and develop strategies to grow their businesses. To learn more about our company, visit InfoTrends, Inc. For More Information If you would like to order extra copies of this report, receive permission to use any part of the report, or be informed of upcoming market updates, reports, and related projects, please us at info@infotrends.com. Headquarters: Europe: Asia: 97 Libbey Industrial Parkway 3 rd Floor, Sceptre House Hiroo Office Building Suite Castle Street Hiroo, Shibuya-ku Weymouth, MA Luton, Bedfordshire Tokyo United States United Kingdom, LU1 3AJ Japan info@infotrends.com euro.info@infotrends.com info@infotrends.co.jp

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 4 Introduction... 6 Methodology... 6 Digital Camera Product Segmentation... 7 Toy-Cams... 7 Point-and-Shoot Digital Cameras... 7 Consumer Digital SLRs... 7 Professional Digital SLRs... 8 Definitions A Year in Review... 9 Digital Camera Market Overview A Maturing Digital Camera Market Reaches Cross Roads The Traditional Photo Experience A Connected Experience The Unknown Photo Active Segments Replacement Buyers are the Mainstay of the Market Price Compression Digital Camera Market Drivers Repeat and Replacement Buyers Individuals Become Owners of Digital Cameras Feature Packed Cameras at Ever Lower Prices Short Repurchase Cycles Keep Market Buoyant Spontaneous Digital Camera Purchases Camera Phones Spur Late Adopters into the Digital Camera Market Digital Camera Market Barriers Market Saturation Current Camera is Fit For Purpose Slowing Economy Negatively Impacts Consumer Spending On Non-Essentials No Interest in Photography Digital Camera Trends Inexpensive and Easy to Use Digital SLRs Features Meet Consumer Needs Rather Than Showcasing Manufacturer Capability Consumer Demand Drives Pixel Race Wireless Cameras Become a Little Easier to Use Improving Video Quality Drives Up Video Capture Sensor Technology Personalization of Digital Cameras OLEDs Become More Prevalent in Digital Cameras North American Consumer Digital Camera Forecast Household Penetration Repeat vs. New Digital Camera Customers Unit Forecast Revenues Average Selling Price Forecast by Product Segment Digital SLR Point-and-Shoot Resolution Trends InfoTrends, Inc.

3 Price Segments Vendor Market Share Canon Kodak Sony Nikon Olympus Fujifilm Samsung HP Other Players Canada Conclusion Appendix (Data Tables) List of Figures Figure 1: Was there a particular event or reason that motivated you to purchase this digital camera?13 Figure 2: Median Price Paid For Digital Camera Figure 3: Digital Camera Forecast Mix by Repeat vs. First-Time Owners Figure 4: Development of Mean Price Paid for Camera ( ) Figure 5: Levels of Photo Activity Among Different Photographer Types and Propensity for Buying Another Digital Camera Figure 6: Number of Cameras in Use in Households Figure 7: Multiple Camera Ownership and Use of Cameras By Different Individuals in Household Figure 8: Median Price by Pixel Segment ( ) Figure 9: U.S. Digital Camera Penetration Figure 10: Camera Owning Households Buying Another Camera vs. New Camera Households Figure 11: North American Digital Camera Unit Forecast, Figure 12: North American Digital Camera Revenue ($M) and Annual Growth Rate, Figure 13: North American Digital Camera Average Selling Prices, Figure 14: Digital SLR and Point-and-Shoot Digital Units by Percentage, Figure 15: Digital SLR and Point-and-Shoot Digital Camera Shipments (M), Figure 16: Digital SLR and Point-and-Shoot Digital Revenue (M), Figure 17: North American Pixel Segment Unit Share (%) Forecast, Figure 18: North American Price Segment Unit share (%), Forecast Figure 19: North American Price Segment Unit (M) Forecast, Figure 20: U.S. Digital Camera Market Share, Figure 21: Canadian Digital Camera Unit Forecast, List of Tables Table 1: Digital Camera Product Segments Price Range and Feature Set, Table 2: Point-and-Shoot and Digital SLR Units ( 000), Table 3: Point-and-Shoot and Digital SLR Revenues ($M) Table 4: Pixel Segment Unit Forecast (K), Table 5: North American Price Segment Unit share (%), Forecast Table 6: North American Price Segment Unit (K) Forecast, Table 7: U.S. Digital Camera Market Share, Table 8: Canadian Digital Camera Unit Forecast, Table 9: North American Consumer Digital Camera Forecast Table 10: Pixel Segment Unit Sales Forecast InfoTrends, Inc.

4 Table 11: Pixel Segment as a Percentage of Total Sales Forecast Table 12: Price Segments Unit Forecast Table 13: Price Segments as a Percentage of Total Units Forecast Table 14: Digital SLR Forecast Table 15: Point-and-Shoot Forecast Table 16: Point-and-Shoot versus Digital SLRs Shipments as a Percentage of Total Forecast Table 17: Point-and-Shoot versus Digital SLRs Revenues as a Percentage of Total Forecast Table 18: Canadian Consumer Digital Camera Forecast Table 19: United States Consumer Digital Camera Forecast InfoTrends, Inc.

5 Introduction This forecast provides a six-year forecast for digital camera market in the U.S. and Canada, and includes an analysis of the key market drivers, barriers, digital camera vendors, and ongoing market issues, as well as digital camera design and technology trends. Methodology The forecast methodology used in generating this report is based on a supply-demand model, as actual shipments from previous years were compared and potential user demand was examined. It involved studying related case histories and considering new technology developments and market trends. The forecasting process was supported by direct contact with manufacturers and suppliers, as well as utilization of secondary sources and end-user research data. Interviews conducted with sales and marketing managers of major manufacturers covered their views of the market, shipments, market share, competitor shares, future products, market trends, technology developments, and market feedback. The information from competing vendors was used to create a balanced picture of the present status of the market in terms of units shipped and revenues. Shipment data has been cross-checked against channel responses and data from competing vendors. In addition, InfoTrends factored in results from its own end-user studies. Adjustments were made when model shipments quoted by the vendor were not justifiable or when vendors did not disclose all information. Table 1: Digital Camera Product Segments Price Range and Feature Set, 2007 DC Segments Price Range Toy-cams $25-$75 Up to 3 million pixels Point-and-shoot Sub $100 - $999 VGA to 8+ million pixels Consumer Digital SLR Under $1,500 Over 6 million pixels Professional Digital SLR Over $1,500 Over 5 million pixels Current Sensor Resolution Zoom Image Display None or Digital Usually Optical Interchangeable lenses Interchangeable lenses None Yes Yes Yes Toy-Cams Toy-cams are at the bottom of the price scale (typically priced under $75), and generally do not compete with mainstream point-and- shoot cameras because of feature deficiencies. Toy-cams are offered in a variety of novelty designs, including matchbox-size, pen cams, and mini DV-style cams. As defined in this forecast, most toy-cams do not feature an LCD screen or optical zoom. They are basic fixed-focus automatic cameras. Most toy-cams feature CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor) sensors rather than CCD (Charge-Coupled Device) sensors. In this segment, CMOS sensors offer significantly reduced manufacturing costs compared to CCDs, as well as very compact components that enable a wide variety of designs InfoTrends, Inc.

6 Point-and-Shoot Digital Cameras Prices of point-and-shoot digital cameras currently range from under $100 to $1,000, with most priced under $300. These are mainstream cameras that span the gamut of basic entry level, fixed-focus models with an LCD screen to full-featured, high resolution, high performance digital cameras that include an LCD screen, optical zoom, and manual image capture controls. Point-and-shoot models currently feature a minimum resolution of 4 megapixels. Unlike the digital SLR class of cameras, point-and-shoot models do not feature interchangeable lenses. Consumer Digital SLRs Consumer digital SLR cameras feature interchangeable lenses and advanced image capture controls. These models are priced under $1,500. Consumer digital SLRs entered the market in late At this time, consumer digital SLRs featured a minimum resolution of 8 megapixels. Prices for consumer digital SLRs continue to drop, and entry level models can now be purchased for as little as $500. Professional Digital SLRs Professional digital SLR cameras feature interchangeable lenses, advanced image capture controls, and a rugged design. Current models are priced over $1,500 and are designed for advanced amateurs and professionals. This material is prepared specifically for clients of InfoTrends, Inc. The opinions expressed represent our interpretation and analysis of information generally available to the public or released by responsible individuals in the subject companies. We believe that the sources of information on which our material is based are reliable and we have applied our best professional judgment to the data obtained InfoTrends, Inc.