2008 First Half Results. Analyst presentation July 29, 2008
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1 2008 First Half Results Analyst presentation July 29, 2008
2 Business review Financial results 1
3 A wide-ranging group A global operator in 6 countries Nearly 50 millions people in Africa with a global customer base of 18.6 millions, up 23%... Morocco: 86% of customer base / +19% International: 14% of customer base / +57% mainly mobile 89% of customer base 2
4 In Morocco, a still favorable environment A solid economy GDP growth estimated at 6.8% in 2008, despite the global economic slowdown Price rise estimated at 3.1% in 2008 and purchasing power preserved A liberalized sector : Launch of strong competitive offers: limited mobility, prepaid broadband internet, subsidies, promotions Launch of 3G Mobile services by the 3 rd operator Partial unbundling access and number portability operational, but littleused. Total unbundling open since July 8, 2008 New decisions made by the regulator More restrictive regulation related to promotions Launch by the ANRT of a new 2G mobile license granting process 3
5 In Morocco, a reinforced leadership Mobile: Customer base: 14.2 million / +21.3% vs. June 2007 Penetration*: 66.9% / + 11 pts Market shares* 66.4% Internet: Customer base: 487 k lines / +9.7% vs. June ,000 Internet 3G+ subscribers Penetration* : 42% of fixed-lines (**) 83.7% Fixed-line: Customer base: 1.3 million / +0.3% vs. June %*** Penetration* : 4,4% (***) (*) ANRT - end of March 08 (**) Excluding public telephony (***) excluding 1.4 million of limited mobility customers (ANRT) 4
6 In subsidiaries, a more difficult environment Economic growths still strong 2008 GDP growth estimated at 6.3% in Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation is higher with the rise of raw materials and food prices: Sub-Saharan Africa: inflation of nearly 9% in Burkina Faso more than 6% in Mauritania (between July 2007 and May 2008) A higher competition in strong markets growth 5
7 In subsidiaries, performances to be confirmed Leadership but higher competition in 2008 Strong customer base growth, but impact of prices rise on consumption A growth in a dynamic market, but still in restructuring process An enhanced customer base reliability and restructuring in France 6
8 Promising half-year results Revenues 14,308 MADm / +10.0% +8.2% on a comparable basis Earnings from Operations 6,666 MADm / +11.1% +12.4% on a comparable basis EFO margin: 46.6% / +1.8 point on a comparable basis Net income group share 4,526 MADm / +17.6% Net margin: 31.6% / +2.0 points 7
9 Business review Financial results 8
10 Mobile in Morocco: highlights Pursuing the generalization of unlimited offers and launch of international rate plans Diversification of promotions and tariffs cut (roaming and international) Launch of 3G+ videotelophony in the beginning of 2008 and new Internet 3G+ bandwidths Add of new Mobile contents to the portal: Disney, Vivendi Games Mobile 9
11 Mobile in Morocco: Growth and leadership Customers, ' June Dec June-08 Var.yoy Customer base 11,713 13,327 14, % Postpaid** % Prepaid 11,250 12,822 13, % Market share* 66.4% 66.5% 66.4% 0.0 pts Postpaid** 61.7% 63.1% 63.4% 1.7 pts Prepaid 66.6% 66.7% 66.6% 0.0 pts Net adds 61.6% 65.1% 63.0% 1.4 pts Churn 23.9% 25.4% 27.6% 3.7 pts Postpaid** 16.0% 17.9% 17.2% 1.2 pts Prepaid 24.2% 25.7% 28.0% 3.8 pts A strong growth despite the competition A preserved prepaid market share and strengthened postpaid position (+1.7 pts) Churn limited increase: +3.7pts between H1-08/H1-07 (*) Source : ANRT March 31, 2008 (**) including subscribers without commitment Mobile 10
12 Mobile in Morocco: ARPU and usage Blended ARPU (MAD/customer/month) Blended Usage (Minutes/customer/month) Incoming Outgoing H H1-08 H H1-08 Pursuing a moderate ARPU decrease (-8.2%) despite the strong customer base growth (+21.3%), due mainly to the fall of interconnection revenues (volume and price impact) Stabilization of outgoing usage: the rhythm of promotions has been maintained at the same level with the set up of a more restrictive regulation Outgoing price/min is down 1.6% at 1.3 dh excl.tax Mobile 11
13 Mobile subsidiaries: customer bases strong growth Mobile customer base* (thousand) ARPU** (MAD/customer/month) Market share* Penetration* 155 Mobisud 72 / -27% 424 Gabon Télécom 116 / -32% 33% 87.9% % +95% 756 Onatel 104 / -43% 35% 10.9% % Mauritel 71 / -31% 70% 41.6% June 07 June 08 The global customer base of African subsidiaries reached more than 2.35 millions, up 61% in a year ARPU drop with the customer base strong growth and the decrease of usage (*) Decembre Source ITU (**) Harmonization of ARPU and reprocessing of 2007 data Mobile 12
14 Mobile revenues structure en MADm - IFRS H H %change comp. basis* Gross revenues 8,889 10, % Maroc Telecom 7,900 8, % Mauritel % Onatel % Gabon Telecom % Mobisud (France + Belgium) ns % of gross revenues 61.6% 64.7% 3.3 pts Mobile revenues continue to increase, except in Mauritania and Gabon due to price cuts The Mobile activity generates about 2/3 of consolidated revenues (*) at constant exchange rate Mobile 13
15 Mobile margins structure MADm - IFRS H H % change comp. basis** Earnings From Operations 4,588 5, % Maroc Telecom 4,341 4, % Mauritel % Onatel % Gabon Telecom Mobisud (France + Belgium) Operating margin 51.6% 50.5% -0.4 pts An operating margin maintained at more than 50%, despite a light decrease of 0.4 pt : In Morocco, despite competition pressure, acquisition and operating costs are under control, that helps to enhance the margin by 0.9 pt In Mauritania and Burkina Faso, costs are under control and the decline is mainly due to the amortization rise with the Mobile capex sharp increase In Gabon, excluding a new tax (10% of revenues), the margin stands at 11.4% (*) at constant exchange rate Mobile 14
16 Fixed & Internet in Morocco: highlights New range of international rate plans New price cuts and promotions: ADSL, International, Internationals Leased Lines, VPN New TV channels for IPTV offer Participation to operation, that facilitate Internet equipment for teachers Fixed & Internet 15
17 Fixed in Morocco: a slight customer base growth lines ' June Dec June-08 % change yoy Maroc Telecom number of lines 1,325 1,336 1, % Residential % Corporate % Public telephony % Penetration rate* 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0 pt Consolidation of Maroc Telecom position in the corporate segment No demand on partial unbundling / Total unbundling operational since 07/08/2008 (*) Fixed-line customer base by equity method taking into account each access, 2007 data reprocessed (**) Source : ANRT, excl. limited mobility Fixed & Internet 16
18 Internet in Morocco : ADSL and Mobile 3G+ Mobile 3G+ 444 Internet customer base (in thousands) International Internet Bandwidth (in Gbps) 24,8 25,1 ADSL Narrowband ,1 7, ,4 June 07 Dec 08 June juin-08 Slowdown of ADSL customer base growth (+10%), relieved by 3G+ Mobile Internet subscription Fixed & Internet 17
19 Fixed subsidiaries : strong growth Fixed customer base (in thousand) Market share* Penetration* % 31 Gabon Télécom 100% 2% % 130 Onatel 100% 1% % 46 Mauritel 90% 1% juin 07 juin 08 The subsidiaries total customer base in Africa reached lines Growth is mainly due to CDMA offers (*) Source: companies Fixed & Internet 18
20 Fixed & Internet revenues structure H % change comp. basis** en MADm - IFRS H Gross revenues 5,532 5, % Maroc Telecom* 4,727 4, % Mauritel % Onatel % Gabon Télécom % % of gross revenues 38.4% 35.3% -3.3 pts Morocco: Limited decrease of the voice average monthly invoice (-3.9%), due to the competition on the phone shop segment ( Téléboutiques ), compensated by: Internet and Data revenues growth The subscription fee increase (+10 dirhams) Others subsidiaries: decrease of average monthly invoice, with the development of CDMA customer base and different price cuts (*) at constant exchange rate Fixed & Internet 19
21 Fixed & Internet margins structure MADm - IFRS H H % change comp. basis** Earnings From Operations 1,411 1, % Maroc Telecom 1,417 1, % Mauritel % Onatel Gabon Telecom % Operating margin 25.5% 27.7% 3.7 pts Enhancement of Fixed activity margin in Morocco with mainly the decline of national outgoing traffic interconnection costs (combined effect of price and usage decline) Burkina Faso and Gabon: decrease in correlation with revenues (*) at constant exchange rate Fixed & Internet 20
22 Business review Financial results 21
23 Scope of consolidation and other elements No change in the scope of consolidation Other elements: Provision of a new tax in Gabon, corresponding to 10% of Mobile revenues Exchange rates impact: Negative in Mauritania (-2.9%) Positive in Euro zones and FCFA (+2.2%) 22
24 Consolidated income statement en MADm - IFRS H H % change Revenues 13,007 14, % Operating costs -7,008-7, % Controlled increase of costs: despite the strong rise of Other operating income and expenses (+20.6%), mainly due to commissions paid Thanks to the moderate rise of costs of purchases and payroll costs Earnings From Operations 5,999 6, % Others* % An improved margin with the acquisition costs control and the decrease of interconnection costs of Fixed in Morocco Financial results Tax -2,064-2, % Financial costs are up with the constitution of an asset depreciation provision and the adjustment of Gabon Télécom interest expennses on loans (IFRS) Net income 3,928 4, % Net income group share 3,850 4, % The effective tax rate is 32%, due to deferred tax of MAD 166 million. Excluding this element, effective tax rate is 30% (*) Other income and charges from ordinary activities and income from equity affiliates 23
25 Consolidated balance sheet en MADm - IFRS 31/12/ /06/2008 % change Non current assets 23,242 23, % Current assest 14,507 12, % o/w Cash 3, % Total Balance sheet 37,749 35, % The cash position has decreased with the dividend payment (MAD 8.2 billion) Subsidiaries represent 24% of the total assets in 2007 vs. 5% in 2006 Equities 18,634 14, % Non current liabilities 1,436 1, % Excluding net income, the total equity is stable Current liabilities 17,679 18, % o/w short/long term debt 2,392 5, % o/w overdraft facilities of MAD 3.1 billion, used by MAroc Telecom 24
26 Cash flow statement MADm - IFRS The net cash position is negative: H H Variation Value % Cash flow Activity 5,443 4, % Cash flow Investment -2,322-1, % o/w: Capex -2,143-1, % Acquisition % Cash flow Financing -2,962-5,640-2, % o/w: Dividends -6,950-8,220-1, % Change in borrowings 3,968 2,514-1, % Change in cash 168-2,833-3,001 ns Cash position at the beginning of period 2,741 3, % Cash position at the end of period 2, , % Financial debt -5,666-5, % Net cash position -2,757-4,018-1, % Decrease of cash flow from operating activities is mainly due to the difference between tax paid and income tax expense (the tax rate reduction has no repercussion on interim payment): MAD 0.8 billion. Excluding this element, cash flow from operating activities increased slightly Capex: MAD 1.9 billion 2007 dividends: MAD 8.2 billion Overdraft facilities: MAD 3.1 billion 25
27 Capex MADm - IFRS Capex H1-07 2,143 H1-08 1,930 % change -9.9% Capex/revenues 17.3% 16.5% 16.3% Fixed & Internet Consolidated Mobile Fixed & Internet 1, , % -5.9% 13.3% 13.5% 10.1% Mobile H H Capex program must accelerate on the 2 nd half H1-07 capex include sub-marine cable (240 MADm) 26
28 Contribution by activity Gross revenues Earnings From Operations 57% 8% 30% 74% 2% 5% Mobile MT Mobile subsidiaries Fixed MT Fixed subsidiaries -2% 24% The Mobile represents the majority of group revenues: 65% of gross revenues 76% of the operating income 27
29 Business review Financial results 28
30 Morocco, a growing country Africa, a high potential Favourable economic indicators 2009 forecasts: +5.2% Inflation under control: 3.1% in 2008 Stabilization of the unemployment rate (<10%) supported by ambitious projects Infrastructure, Offshoring, Tourism Partly financed by foreign investors and measures to enhance the purchasing power: tax rate cuts Promising economic forecasts: More than 5.6% /year in 2009/2010 (source: World Bank) Telephony penetration lead up to grow quickly: Less than 19% in Sub-Saharan Africa en 2007 (source : ITU) A filed of growth and profitability thanks to synergies to be implemented and setting to the standards of management methods 29
31 Upgrade of 2008 forecasts At constant scope: Consolidated revenues growth will exceed 8% Consolidated earnings from operations growth will exceed 11% 30
32 Appendix Customer base and positioning Consolidated data Morocco data Mauritania data Burkina Faso data Gabon data 31
33 Appendix: Customer base and position Morocco France Belgium (MVNO) Customer(m) Market share Penetration Mobile % leader 66.9% Fixed % leader* 4.4%* Internet % leader 42%** Customer (k) Mobile 155 Mauritania Customer (k) Market share Penetration Mobile 1,015 70% leader 41.6% Fixed 46 90% leader 1.1% Internet 7 100% leader 15%** Burkina Faso Customer (k) Market share Penetration Mobile % / 2 nd 11% Fixed % leader 0.7% Internet 15 ND / leader 11.5%** Gabon Customer (k) Market share Penetration Mobile % / 2 nd 87.9% Fixed % leader 2.6% Internet 12 ND / leader 39%** Maroc Telecom group Sources : Maroc (ANRT) / Other (ITU) (*) excluding limited mobility (**) Penetration compared to Maroc Telecom fixed-lines, excluding public telephony 32
34 Appendix: Consolidated data H MADm - IFRS H % change Published Comp.basis Published Published Comp.basis Consolidated revenues 13,007 13,214 14, % 8.2% Mobile (gross) 8,889 8,988 10, % 13.0% Fixed and Internet (gross) 5,532 5,650 5, % -2.0% EBITDA 7,548 7,546 8, % 12.7% % margin 58.0% 57.1% 59.4% 1.4 pts 2.4 pts Mobile 5,399 5,414 6, % 13.9% % margin 60.7% 60.2% 60.6% -0.1 pts 0.5 pts Fixed and Internet 2,149 2,132 2, % 9.9% % margin 38.8% 37.7% 42.3% 3.4 pts 4.6 pts Earnings from operations 5,999 5,940 6, % 12.4% % margin 46.1% 45.0% 46.6% 0.5 pts 1.8 pts Mobile 4,588 4,580 5, % 12.2% % margin 51.6% 51.0% 50.5% -1.1 pts -0.4 pts Fixed and Internet 1,411 1,360 1, % 13.1% % margin 25.5% 24.1% 27.7% 2.2 pts 3.7 pts Capex 2,143 1, % Mobile 16.5% 12.8% -3.7 pts Mobile 1,184 1, % % revenues 13.3% 10.1% -3.2 pts Fixed and Internet % % revenues 17.3% 16.3% -1.1 pts 33
35 Appendix: Morocco data H MADm - IFRS H Gross revenues 12,627 13,673 Mobile 7,900 8,923 Communications 7,520 8,360 Handsets Fixed and Internet 4,727 4,750 Voice 3,143 3,040 Interconnection Data Internet EBITDA 6,983 8,060 % margin 55.3% 58.9% Mobile 4,999 5,776 % margin 63.3% 64.7% Fixed and Internet 1,984 2,284 % margin 42.0% 48.1% Earnings from operations 5,758 6,649 % margin 45.6% 48.6% Mobile 4,341 4,982 % margin 54.9% 55.8% Fixed and Internet 1,417 1,667 % margin 30.0% 35.1% % change 8.3% 12.9% 11.2% 48.2% 0.5% -3.3% -11.6% 15.6% 9.3% 15.4% 3.6 pts 15.5% 1.5 pts 15.1% 6.1 pts 15.5% 3.0 pts 14.8% 0.9 pts 17.6% 5.1 pts 34
36 Appendix: Mauritania data H % change at constant exchange rate MADm - IFRS H Gross revenues Mobile Fixed and Internet EBITDA % margin 49.2% 50.7% Mobile % margin 61.0% 59.5% Fixed and Internet % margin 19.1% 25.7% Earnings from operations % margin 37.1% 35.8% Mobile % margin 50.5% 45.3% Fixed and Internet 5 12 % margin 3.0% 8.3% -1.2% 2.1% -9.4% 1.9% 1.5 pts -0.5% -1.6 pts 21.4% 6.6 pts -4.5% -1.3 pts -7.9% -5.2 pts 145.1% 5.2 pts 35
37 Appendix: Burkina Faso data MADm - IFRS H H % change at constant exchange rate Gross revenues % Mobile % Fixed and Internet % EBITDA % % margin 44.6% 36.2% -8.4 pts Mobile % % margin 63.7% 56.1% -7.5 pts Fixed and Internet % % margin 29.3% 13.9% pts Earnings from operations % % margin 20.3% 10.1% pts Mobile % % margin 38.7% 28.3% pts Fixed and Internet ns % margin 5.6% -10.4% pts 36
38 Appendix: Gabon data H % change MADm - IFRS H Published Comp.basis Published Gross revenues Mobile Fixed and Internet EBITDA % margin 10.4% 6.8% 8.4% Mobile % margin 15.2% 15.1% 26.0% Fixed and Internet % margin 5.7% -1.0% -11.3% Earnings from operations % margin -6.0% -12.7% -13.4% Mobile % margin 3.6% 0.0% 9.1% Fixed and Internet % margin -15.2% -24.5% -38.5% Comp.basis -15.0% -6.7% -22.9% 6.4% 1.7 pts 60.5% 10.9 pts -57.5% pts -11.3% -0.6 pts ns 9.2 pts -21.0% pts 37
39 Mobile in Morocco: ARPU and usage ARPU (MAD/customer/month) Usage (Minutes/customer/month) S1-07 FY Incoming Outgoing S Postpaid Prepaid Blended Postpaid Prepaid Blended Postpaid Prepaid* Blended 38
40 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Maroc Telecom. This information cannot be considered as historical data and reflects management s opinions on the expected impact on earnings of its strategy as well as its forecasts related to new or existing programs, technological developments or market conditions. Although Maroc Telecom believes that is expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. It can give no assurance that these expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out herein. Key factors that could cause differences between the expected and actual results include strategic, financial and operational initiatives by Maroc Telecom, changes in the competitive environment, regulatory changes in the telecom market, and risks and uncertainties linked to currency fluctuations, technological trends, economic activity and international operations. The forward-looking statements contained in this document are based on opinions valid at the date of the report only. 39
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