Broadband Britain a mobile perspective

Transcription

1 Broadband Britain a mobile perspective Professor Michael Walker Vodafone Executive Technology Advisor and Vodafone Professor of Telecommunications, Royal Holloway, University of London NICC Open Forum, 23 November

2 A layered model of the mobile telecommunications business Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 2

3 Technology Standards Economies of Scale Global Interoperability Investment Protection Time To Market Internet Player Model 3

4 Broadband radio access HSPA to LTE Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 4

5 Fixed & mobile data rate evolution 100 Mbps 10 Mbps 1 Mbps ADSL 3Mbps ADSL 1Mbps FTTH 100Mbps LTE Mbps ADSL2 25Mbps HSPA+ 5-30Mbps HSDPA 1Mbps HSPA 2-4Mbps 100 kbps 10 kbps 2.4k 3G R9 384k 128k 56k GPRS 38 kbps 28.8k GSM 9.6 kbps 9.6k VF Paknet 8 kbps Fixed Data Mobile Data

6 Mobile broadband access evolution HSPA/HSPA+ LTE LTE-Advanced 3.6/7.2/14.4 Flat-rate price-plans Built-in devices/dongles 21.6/28.8 Example: Vodafone Spectral efficiency and flexibity Latency & peak rate Flat architecture Release 8 finished Commercial deployment announced by Verizon Wireless and others Evolution of LTE Rel. 8 ITU IMT-Advanced Captures Innovation 33 Mio 3G devices 4.5 Mio Mobile broadband 2.8 Billion data revenue 6

7 NGMN simulated performance averaged across vendors 144Mbps Aggregate cell throughput ( total cell capacity when fully loaded ) Peak throughput in perfect conditions 72Mbps Step Change Step Change NGMN 32Mbps 21.8Mbps 3Mbps 6Mbps 4.7Mbps NGMN 16Mbps HSPA 7.2 HSPA+ (5MHz) LTE 2*10MHz LTE 2*20MHz 7

8 Projected user experience HSPA 3.6/7.2/14.4 HSPA WiMAX Wave 2 Measured With correction LTE Release 8 (potential) LTE Release 8 (potential) Spectrum (MHz) 2x5 2x5 1x30 1x30 2x10 2x20 Channel size 5 MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz Typical user rate 1 Mbps 1.5 Mbps 1.7 Mbps 4 Mbps 5 Mbps 10 Mbps LTE capacity is an order of magnitude higher than HSPA 8

9 LTE a global solution performance + LTE Strategy + trial Cost / IPR Global scale Underpinned by a sound spectrum strategy Must support FDD and TDD Must be a global standard 9

10 LTE trials for FDD and TDD LTE-FDD LTE-FDD TD-LTE TD-LTE TD-LTE LTE FDD trials TD-LTE trials Final field trials complete Results meet LTE performance expectations Europe, China and India IIT Kharagpur Lab tests completed field trials prepared 10

11 Measured downlink capacity Vodafone/Verizon trials Comparison of DL trial performance with simulation results Simulated Measured Throughput (Mbps) & Spectral Efficiency (b/s/hz/s) Sector Throughput (Mbps) Spectral Efficiency (b/s/hz/site) Sector Throughput (Mbps) Spectral Efficiency (b/s/hz/site) Sector Throughput (Mbps) Spectral Efficiency (b/s/hz/site) Sector Throughput (Mbps) Spectral Efficiency (b/s/hz/site) LTE FDD, 2x10MHz, N=1 WiMax, 3x10MHz, N=3 HSPA+, Rel-8, 2x5MHz, N=1 HSDPA, Best case, 2x5MHz, N=1 11

12 Downlink individual user capacity (10MHz carrier) Mid-cell user 20Mb/s 11Mb/s 7Mb/s 2.5Mb/s 1.3Mb/s Concurrent users 1 user, 1 user, 1 user, 4 users, 8 users, Interference load 20% load 50% load 100% load 100% load 100% load Cell edge user 3Mb/s 1.5Mb/s 1Mb/s 0.6Mb/s 0.3Mb/s 12

13 Commercial deployments of LTE Verizon Wireless: has spectrum at 700 MHz, has confirmed intention to deploy, has selected LTE FDD in 10 MHz carrier anticipate 2010/2011 China Mobile: believed to want at least 10 MHz carrier at 2.3 MHz, prefers TD LTE as it is an evolution of TD-SCDMA anticipate/guess 2011 Germany: Government expressed interest in licensing UHF at 800 MHz as part of digital dividend, will be LTE FDD, probably each licence in a 10 MHz carrier DoCoMo likely to deploy at 2.1 GHz Various European auctions of 2.6 GHz spectrum planned for next few years UHF digital dividend spectrum to be auctioned in European countries over next few years Rumour that Clearwire may deploy TD LTE at 2.6 GHz as well as/instead of WiMAX 13

14 Adequate and appropriate spectrum is key to success Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 14

15 What Spectrum 3G extension bands at 2.6 GHz and UHF 3G extension band UHF 15

16 IP is the universal network protocol Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 16

17 Evolving the connectivity layer using IP Yesterday Vertical services Services Content Tomorrow Multi-service platforms Services Content Mobile Fixed Telephony Fixed Data Net WLAN Services Environment IP Multi-Services network Access Access Access Transport, Switching & Access Networks 17

18 Access to the web is the driving force Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 18

19 The application for broadband is the web Web is introducing new ways of communicating through social networks PersianBlog.Com 19

20 Social networking growth 1 Billion people use social networking websites world wide 150 Million people access a social networking website every day 3 Billion minutes spent on social networking every day 8 Billion pages accessed on social networking websites every day 20

21 Mobile Web experience has come a long way... But it hasn t always been going the right way May look the same user insight has told us that this is important but overall experience is not the same due to User Interface constraints Display size & resolution Navigation within a page Text input Rather than simply mobilising the Web take a different approach Small client-side apps that provide simple Web functionality to the user in a bubblegum presentation format The Widget concept is perfect! Information available at a glance 21

22 Widgets improve responsiveness Browser model Web page Mobile browser XML data Widget model Web Idle screen Enables a zero-latency Web experience 22

23 OMTP BONDI accessing device capabilities #1 #2 Web browser Web Runtime Web apps Device APIs Enhanced Web apps Web page Simple Widget Contextualised Widget 23

24 Open standards a catalyst for eco-systems Web Runtime Operator Network APIs Symbian Blackberry Windows Mobile ipohne OS Linux (n) Palm WebOS BREW Android Vodafone Telefonica O2 T-Mobile China Mobile Verizon Wireless Three Device Network Web Apps Web Services 24

25 Betavine Social Exchange crowd-sourcing mobile internet solutions Problems Owners: Local communities, Local NGO s, NPO s, Solution Providers: Local Universities, Local & Global Developers in the Betavine community Problems are brought to BSX by NGO s, NPO s or community groups Benefit: Rapid solutions to grass-roots problems Local OpCo s Partners Local and global developers propose & enable solutions Benefit: Develop skills, mobile apps eco-system and reputation. Future roots to market for products Local op co and partners explore routes to sustainable deployment 25 Benefit: Mobile solutions, new source of local products, increased mobile data usage

26 Commercialisation of data services Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 26

27 GB (DL+UL) /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/2009 Price and data growth Source VF ES. Total Monthly Bytes of Downlink and Uplink Data Traffic in 2G & 3G Networks 27

28 The cost/revenue challenge Traffic Costs Diverging expectations for traffic and revenue growth Revenue Voice Data Time 28

29 The capacity/competition balance Handsets Laptops Embedded Terminal Users needs Customer propositions Service Enabling Connectivity Applications and stores Network APIs Device APIs Web services IP Architecture Access Spectrum and regulation GSM 3G/HSPA LTE 29

30 Fragmentation of spectrum destroys value the GSM case as an example Total network capacity % 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% Operators 30 MHz 40 MHz 50 MHz 30

31 Rate of increase in competitiveness falls off HHI For European Mobile Industry and India HHI Number of Operators Equal share UK NL Germany Austria France Belgium Spain Italy India Source: Arthur D Little report "Telecom Operators", March 2007, and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) measures competitiveness of market Economic benefit of consolidated capacity outweighs any loss of competition 31