SURF THE NEW WAVE Display Supply and Demand Outlook
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1 SURF THE NEW WAVE Display Supply and Demand Outlook 2016 Korea Display Conference 박진한, JinHan Ricky Park Director, IHS Markit Technology
2 2 Changes on demand area forecast Review 2016-FPD demand area YoY 4.7% Share of H1 16 YoY 3.4% As of Q1 16 As of Q As of Q2 16 As of Q % 46.9% FPD demand area(million square meter) Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 As of Q4' As of Q1' As of Q2' As of Q3' FPD demand area(million square meter) 2015(A) 2016(E) Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
3 3 Changes on capacity forecast Review 2016-TFT area capacity YoY 5.3% YoY 5.9% As of Q4 15 As of Q3 16 TFT area capacity(million square meter) Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 As of Q4' As of Q3' TFT area capacity(million square meter) 2015(A) 2016(E) Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand and equipment tracker
4 4
5 5 Main reason for panel shortage Unexpected capacity changes Production issues Earthquake effect from Tainan, Kumamoto and Taoyuan. Lower production yield for MMG process: 43/21.5-inch, 65/32-inch, 45/23.6-inch from G8 Lower glass efficiency for larger sized products: Remodeling Converting electrode materials to Cu: SDC, AUO, INX, CSOT and BOE Adopting 0.4T glass for cost down and curved: SDC and AUO BCS for cost down and better aperture ratio: SDC Restructuring Reduce IT capacity and enforcing TV and AMOLED products Shut down TFT-LCD FAB Switch to AMOLED equipment
6 6 FPD Demand Forecast
7 7 Expectation is just recovered Real GDP growth rate forecast 2017 GDP Updated in Real GDP growth (worldwide) '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' Russia Eurozone US India China Brazil Source: IHS Markit, IHS Global Economic Forecast
8 8 Silent consumer market in the long-term Consumer electronics shipment forecast CAGR( 15-20) 2.6% -1.4% 2.4% -1.9% Source: IHS Markit
9 9 Area demand is steadily growing by key factors FPD demand area forecast Demand for larger size for TV, Monitor and Tablet Demand for Higher resolution: FHD for IT, UHD & 8K for TV Demand for advanced technology: AMOLED, LTPS and Oxide Demand for fancy design: Flexible, Ultra slim, narrow bezel and detachable design Demand from niche market: Curved TV and monitor Million square meter % Others Smart Watch Public Display OLED TV Mobile Phone Mobile PC LCD TV Desktop Monitor Automobile Monitor CAGR 11% CAGR 15% CAGR 78% CAGR 6% CAGR-1% CAGR 5% CAGR 1% Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
10 , expecting to be better FPD demand forecast Panel demand unit Million unit LCD TV Desktop Monitor Notebook PC Tablet Smartphone 1,548 1,606 1,713 2,413 2,402 2,492 Panel demand area Million m LCD TV Desktop Monitor Notebook PC Tablet Smartphone YoY % 1% -1% -2% -8% 0% -16% -7% 4% 7% 0% 4% YoY % 7% 3% 2% -10% 0% -11% 3% 9% 10% 4% 6% Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
11 11 Why not? Larger size TV Potential market for super large size TV Living room TV SET ASP(US$) 4,000 3,000 55" 65" 75" Viewing distance Screen size(inch) Distance (meter) Screen diagonal size 2,000 Dwelling size(m 2 ) USA 139 EU 96 Gemany 94 1,000 France 94 China 108 China-Urban 94 China-Rural Source: Viewing distance(society of motion picture & television engineers) Average size of dwelling(united States Census, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Eurostat) TV ASP(IHS, TV Set market tracker)
12 12 Why not? Larger size TV Over 60-inch TV share 24% 26% 27% 29% 30% Revenue share 14% 13% 9% 9% 4% 4% 21% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 13% 12% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 20% 21% 10% 10% Area share Unit share Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
13 13 Maximize the efficiency & differentiation TV Size competition by panel suppliers Share by size in inch category 46~48-inch 50-inch 49-inch Current suppliers Gen 7: AUO, INX, LGD Gen 8: BOE, CSOT, SDC Gen 7: LGD, AUO Additional suppliers + INX, HKC, CEC Gen AUO Gen 8 + BOE Gen CSOT Gen 10.5 Share by size in inch category 42-inch inch 43-inch 39.5/40-inch Gen 8: INX + Sharp Gen 10 + INX, HKC, CEC Gen 8.6 Gen 7: AUO, LGD Gen 8: BOE, CSOT + LGD Gen 8 + SDC Gen 8 + BOE Gen CSOT Gen 10.5 Gen 7: SDC, INX + Sharp Gen 10 Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
14 14 FPD Supply and Demand Outlook
15 15 Aggressive investment for Larger FAB & AMOLED FAB investment plan in China Manufacturer Factory Gen Application Phase Probability Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 AUO FVO Kunshan L6K LTPS 6 LCD 1 100% % BOE BOE B7 Chengdu LTPS 6 AMOLED 1 90% % % 5 BOE Chongqing B8 8.5 LCD 4 100% BOE Fuqing B LCD 1 90% % BOE Hefei B LCD 1 90% % BOE Ordos B6 LTPS 5.5 LCD+AMOLED 2 90% CEC Panda PND Chengdu 8.6 LCD 1 70% CEC Irico Irico Xianyang 8.6 LCD 1 75% China Star CSOT Shenzhen T2 8.5 LCD+AMOLED 2 100% CSOT Wuhan LTPS T3 6 LCD 1 100% LCD+AMOLED 2 100% CPT Vibrant Display Tech Fuzhou 6 LCD+AMOLED 1 90% HKC HKC Chongqing 8.6 LCD 1 100% LG Display LGD Guangzhou LCD 1 100% % Samsung Display SD Suzhou 8.5 LCD 3 100% Tianma TNM Xiamen 2 LTPS 6 LCD 1 100% % TNM Zuoling Wuhan LTPS 6 AMOLED 1 90% % 5 Truly TLY Huizhou A 4 LCD+EWD 1 100% TLY Huizhou B SEC L4 LTPS 4 AMOLED 1 100% TLY Shanwei 2 SEC L5 5 LCD 1 90% Visionox GoVSX Kunshan LTPS 5.5 AMOLED 1 100% % Royole Ryl Shenzhen AMOLED 1 78% 3 6 Mainly for large display Mainly for small medium display Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand & equipment tracker
16 16 Aggressive investment for AMOLED & restructuring FAB investment plan in Korea, Taiwan and Japan Manufacturer Factory Gen Application Phase Probability Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 AUO AUO Taichung L8B 8.5 LCD 3 100% Foxconn Foxconn Kaohsiung LTPS 6 LCD+AMOLED 1 100% Innolux Corp. CMO Kaohsiung Fab8_b 8.6 LCD 1 100% JDI JDI Hakusan D3 LTPS 6 LCD 1 100% LG Display LGP Kumi AP3 LTPS (P6) 6 AMOLED 4 100% LCD+AMOLED 3 100% LGD Paju P9-E6 G6 6 AMOLED 1 90% % % 10 Samsung Display SD A3 6 AMOLED 1 100% % % % % % % % SD A4 (L7-1) 6 AMOLED 1 70% % % % % 10 SMD A2 5.5 AMOLED 6 100% SD A2-E (V-1 Pilot) 5.5 AMOLED 1 90% % Sharp SHP Kameyama 2 Oxide 8 LCD 3 90% Mainly for large display Mainly for small medium display Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand & equipment tracker
17 17 Dispose and restructure FABs TFT FAB shutdown forecast Manufacturer Factory Gen Application End Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 AUO QDI Linkou L3D 3.25 LCD Jul E Ink PVI Hsinchu Fab1 2 LCD+EPD Sep Innolux Corp. TPO Jhunan Fab1 T LCD+AMOLED Jul JDI HIT Mobara V3 #1 4 LCD Jan HIT Mobara V3 LTPS 4 LCD Apr STL Higashiura # LCD+AMOLED Apr LaiBao PCK Kobe #2 2.5 LCD Jan LG Display LGP Kumi P LCD Apr LGP Kumi P3 3.5 LCD Apr LGP Kumi P6 6 LCD Oct Panasonic LCD IPSA Himeji 1 8 LCD Sep Samsung Display SEC Chonan L6 5 LCD Apr SEC Tangjong L7-1 7 LCD Dec SMD V1 Pilot 8 AMOLED Aug Sharp SHP Tenri CGS-A 3.25 LCD Oct Decreased area capacity by above FABs Decreased area capacity/total area capacity million m 2 2% 6% Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand & equipment tracker
18 18 Expect to be tightness Capacity area growth vs. demand area growth Oversupply Oversupply Shortage Tightness LCD, AMOLED, AMEPD Demand Y/Y% 6% 14% 5% 5% 7% 5% 4% TFT Capacity for AM Applications Y/Y% 5% 5% 7% 5% 2% 6% 6% Notes: Demand includes AMEPD, AMLCD, AMOLED, a-si, LTPS and oxide panels for both large-area and small/medium applications. Capacity includes all ramped capacity for fabs with 30% probability for all applications,, glass sizes and technologies. Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand & equipment tracker
19 19 Balanced glut ratio for large display Glut, Inventory and FAB utilization forecast 60.0 Demand Capacity Glut Glut ratio Area (million square meter) % 12.6% 9.0% 8.2% 12.2% 7.0% 6.4% 7.5% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Glut(%) Balance (0~10%) +0.5w Inventory Normal level(4.0w) -0.5w piles up decreases decreases rebuild piles up FAB Utilization 90% 80% 80% 86% 90% 91% 85-90% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand & equipment tracker Display production and inventory tracker
20 20 How many TV panel is carried over to next year TV Panel vs. SET shipment comparison LCD TV module vs. set shipment comparison and gap forecast 2, % 2,000 TV Set Accumulated Shipment TV Panel Accumulated Shipment Accumulated Gap. 8.0% Million Units 1, % 1, % % 0 Q1'12 Q1'13 Q1'14 Q1'15 Q1'16 Q1'17 Notes: Accumulated shipment for TV and panel from Q Source: IHS 0.0% 2015 IHS Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
21 21 How many TV panel is carried over to next year TV Panel vs. SET shipment comparison LCD TV panel shipment Million unit 300 Actual panel shipment SET shipment panel for repair and A/S Open Cell/BMS business China Low-Tier and OEM emerging market Others Usage for monitor Usage for public display Actual LCD TV panel shipment LCD TV Set shipment Gap (Panel - SET) Accumulated Gap Source: IHS Markit, Display long-term demand forecast tracker
22 22 Gen10.5 FABs to have an impact on TV market BOE & CSOT s plan for Gen10.5 Gen10.5 (2940x3370) Panel Size Economical Cut Glass Efficiency % % % % 61 (21:9) 10 93% 70 (21:9) 8 91% vs. Panel Size Gen8.5 (2940x3370) Economical Cut Glass Efficiency % % % % Market share of production at Gen10.5 (million unit) 43" 65" 75" 2 97% 11 (Production volume at Gen10.5) 21%% (share of production at Gen10.5) % 53 (Panel demand) Source: IHS Markit, Display supply demand & equipment tracker
23 23 Chaiwan(China + Taiwan) union LeEco + VIZIO Investment Technology TV OEM Share Brand Main Market Channel China No. 7 in 2015 (behind China top-6, ahead of Samsung) Want to penetrate N. America, AP (India) Cash injection (5%) Invest 20% (65%) (15%) China others (15%, 毅昌, 天樂, 歌爾 ) N. America No. 2 in 2015 (behind Samsung) Struggling to penetrate overseas market Invest 8% (15%) (9%) Invest 8% (47%) (29%) Panel Invest 24% INX Sharp CSOT CEC HKC Technology support
24 24 What is next wave FPD market revenue forecast Next? FPD for Mobile FPD for TV Mobile phone FPD for IT application LCD TV Mobile PC Monitor CRT TV
25 25 Surf the new wave 초대형 TV 시장선점 AMOLED 시장확대 영원한적군도아군도없다
26 26 READY TO SURF!!!
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