WIRELESS IMPACT ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Transcription

1 WIRELESS IMPACT ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BILL LUTHER (Ret.) (FORMERLY CONSULTANT TO U.S. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION AND CHIEF OF INTERNATIONAL RADIOCOMMUNICATIONS POLICY FOR THE U.S. FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION)

2 TOPICS FOR DISCUSSION WORLD SUMMIT ON THE INFORMATION SOCIETY (WSIS) TARGETS GLOBAL AND AFRICAN ICT GROWTH MOBILE-CELLULAR AND INTERNET GROWTH TRENDS INTERNET CONCERNS AND CYBERCRIME FIXED-TELEPHONE SUBSCRIBERS IP / PSTN AND VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VoIP) SKYPING BROADBAND WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM GLOBAL AGENDA WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANCE 2

3 WSIS TARGETS FOR CONNECT VILLAGES; ESTABLISH COMMUNITY ACCESS POINTS 2. CONNECT UNIVERSITIES, COLLEGES, AND SECONDARY AND PRIMARY SCHOOLS 3. CONNECT SCIENTIFIC AND RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS 4. CONNECT ALL PUBLIC LIBRARIES, ARCHIVES, MUSEUMS, CULTURAL CENTRES AND POST OFFICES 5. CONNECT HEALTH CENTRES AND HOSPITALS 6. CONNECT ALL LOCAL AND CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS AND ESTABLISH WEBSITES AND ADDRESSES FOR THEM 7. ADAPT ALL PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL CURRICULA TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY 8. ENSURE THAT THE WORLD POPULATION HAS ACCESS TO TELEVISION AND RADIO SERVICES 9. ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF CONTENT AND PUT INTO PLACE TECHNICAL CONDITIONS IN ORDER TO FACILITATE PRESENCE AND USE OF ALL WORLD LANGUAGES ON THE INTERNET 10. ENSURE THAT MORE THAN HALF THE WORLD S INHABITANTS HAVE PERSONAL USE OF ICT 3

4 Per 100 inhabitants Global ICT developments, Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions Individuals using the Internet Fixed telephone subscriptions Active mobile broadband subscriptions Fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database 4

5 ICT GROWTH IN AFRICA OVER THE PERIOD

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7 HUMANS AND THEIR CONNECTIONS 1. CORRESPONDING TO THE ITU DATA GRAPHS IN THE PREVIOUS SLIDE, AND ACCORDING TO THE GSMA AT THE 2013 MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS, THE TOTAL NUMBER OF MOBILE-CELLULAR CONNECTIONS WILL APPROACH 7.4 BILLION IN THE AVERAGE USER OF MOBILE SERVICES HAD AT LEAST TWO CONNECTIONS IN 2012, E.G., CELL PHONE, AND A TABLET OR E-READER. 3. WI-FI CONNECTIVITY WILL BE AVAILABLE IN NEW VEHICLES (CARS AND TRUCKS) IN THERE ARE 7.1 BILLION HUMANS ON EARTH TODAY - - A NUMBER GROWING MORE SLOWLY THAN CONNECTIONS. 5. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT SERVICE PROVIDERS ARE SEEKING NEW WAYS TO MARKET PRODUCTS AND THAT PEOPLE ARE SEEKING NEW WAYS OF MAKING 7 A BETTER LIFE (CONNECTING WITH OTHERS).

8 MOBILE PHONES MOBILE PHONES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO REPLACING CAMERAS, MAPS, REMOTE CONTROLS, TICKETS, BOARDING PASSES, CASH, CASH REGISTERS, CALCULATORS, NOTEPADS, HANDHELD GAMING SYSTEMS, AND MORE! 1.6 BILLION MOBILE PHONES WERE PRODUCED AND SHIPPED IN % OF ALL NEW PHONES ARE BEING SOLD IN ASIA AND AFRICA. 8

9 MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS BY LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT Developing Developed Developed Developing Total 2.2 billion Total 6 billion 9

10 MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS (START OF 2012) (PER 100 INHABITANTS) Cameroon 53 Central African Republic 41 Congo, D. R. 23 Egypt 101 Ghana 85 Kenya 68 Lesotho 56 Malawi 26 10

11 MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS (START OF 2012) (PER 100 INHABITANTS) Morocco 55 Niger 30 Nigeria 58 Sudan 56 Tanzania 56 Togo 51 Zambia 61 11

12 MOBILE CELLULAR STATISTICAL CAVEATS DOUBLE COUNTING TAKES PLACE AS SOME CONSUMERS SUBSCRIBE TO MORE THAN ONE SERVICE OPERATORS COUNT DIFFERENTLY, OFTEN INFLATING NUMBERS SOME SUBSCRIBERS SHARE PHONES, SPREADING BENEFITS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST IN PENETRATION RATES BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS 12

13 POSTPAID AND PREPAID CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS IN AFRICA 13

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17 Individuals using the Internet, by level of development 17

18 INTERNET USERS (M0BILE)* PER 100 INHABITANTS (START OF 2012) (PER 100 INHABITANTS) Cameroon 5.0 Central African Republic 2.2 Congo, D. R. 1.2 Egypt 39.0 Ghana 14.0 Kenya 28.0 Lesotho 4.2 Malawi 3.3 THE NUMBER OF FIXED-WIRED* INTERNET USERS IS LESS THAN 1% EXCEPT FOR EGYPT (2.6%). 18

19 INTERNET USERS (MOBILE)* PER 100 INHABITANTS (START OF 2012) (PER 100 INHABITANTS) Morocco 51.0 Niger 1.3 Nigeria 28.5 Sudan 19.0 Tanzania 12.0 Togo 3.5 Zambia 11.5 THE NUMBER OF FIXED-WIRED* INTERNET USERS IS LESS THAN 1% EXCEPT FOR MOROCCO (1.8%). 19

20 INTERNET CONCERNS FRAUD - AUTHENTICITY CYBERSTALKING OR VOYERISM GAMBLING MONEY LAUNDERING DRUG TRAFFICKING PORNOGRAPHY TAXES SPAM QUALITY INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS VIRUSES SECURITY (PRIVACY AND IDENTITY THEFT) SOCIAL ISSUES INCIDENTAL CULTURAL IMPERIALISM WIRELESS NUMBER DIRECTORY (PRIVACY) COSTS 20

21 CYBERCRIME PREVENTION HAVE ANTIVIRUS SOFTWARE, ANTI-SPYWARE AND A FIREWALL NEVER RESPOND TO SPAM DON T OPEN SUSPICIOUS S OR ATTACHMENTS NEVER PROVIDE PASSWORDS OR PERSONAL INFORMATION TO UNSOLICITED S OR WEB SITES WHEN ASKED TO ALLOW OR DENY AN APPLICATION ACCESS TO THE INTERNET, CHOOSE DENY UNLESS YOU ARE CONFIDENT IN THE SITE WHEN SHOPPING OR BANKING ONLINE, MAKE SURE THE WEBSITE CONTAINS AN S AFTER HTTP ( ) AND LOOK FOR THE PADLOCK ICON IN THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER OF THE COMPUTER 21

22 Per 100 inhabitants Fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, Developed World Developing D/ict/definitions/regions/index.html Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database 22

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24 IP TELEPHONY AND THE PSTN PSTN IS BASED ON CIRCUIT-SWITCHED TECHNOLOGY, EVOLVED AS A VOICE NETWORK (HIGHLY REGULATED) INTERNET IS BASED ON PACKET-SWITCHED TECHNOLOGY, EVOLVED AS A DATA NETWORK (LARGELY UNREGULATED) INTERNET IS HEADED TO REPLACE THE PSTN BY A NEXT GENERATION NETWORK (NGN) IN THE U.S., THE FCC IN DECEMBER 2009, STARTED PLANNING TRANSITION FROM A CIRCUIT-SWITCHED NETWORK TO AN ALL-IP NETWORK 24

25 WHAT IS VoIP / INTERNET VOICE? VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VoIP) ALLOWS TELEPHONE CALLS USING A COMPUTER NETWORK - - A DATA NETWORK, LIKE THE INTERNET: VoIP CONVERTS THE VOICE SIGNAL FROM YOUR TELEPHONE INTO A DIGITAL SIGNAL THAT TRAVELS OVER THE INTERNET, THEN CONVERTS IT BACK AT THE OTHER END SO YOU CAN SPEAK TO ANYONE WITH A REGULAR PHONE NUMBER OR WITH ANOTHER SKYPE USER. WHEN PLACING A VoIP CALL USING A PHONE WITH AN ADAPTER, YOU HEAR A DIAL TONE AND COMPOSE PHONE NUMBERS JUST AS YOU ALWAYS HAVE. VoIP ALSO ALLOWS YOU TO MAKE A CALL DIRECTLY FROM A COMPUTER USING A CONVENTIONAL TELEPHONE OR A MICROPHONE. 25

26 TYPICAL SKYPE VoIP CHARGES (2013) Destination Rate/minute USD (cents) Rate/SMS (cents)* Cameroon Central African Republic Congo, D. R Egypt Ghana Kenya Lesotho Malawi *A one-time connection fee applies to each Skype call. Subscription packages reduce rates in every case. Receiving phones incur charges for SMS (140 characters) if a plan doesn t exist. 26

27 TYPICAL SKYPE VoIP CHARGES (2013) Destination Rate/minute USD (cents) Rate/SMS (cents)* Morocco Niger Nigeria Sudan Tanzania Togo Zambia *A one-time connection fee applies to each Skype call. Subscription packages reduce rates in every case. Receiving phones incur charges for SMS (140 characters) if a plan doesn t exist. 27

28 A WORD ABOUT BROADBAND BROADBAND IS AN ACCELERATOR OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BROADBAND DELIVERY SYSTEMS: DIGITAL SUBSCRIBER LINES CABLE MODEMS OPTICAL FIBER POWERLINE TELECOMMUNICATION SATELLITES TERRESTRIAL FIXED WIRELESS MOBILE WIRELESS NETWORKS 28

29 ADVANTAGES OF BROADBAND REDUCTION IN THE DIGITAL DIVIDE GREATER INVESTMENT IN NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS INCREASED DEMAND FOR EQUIPMENT GREATER EFFICIENCIES IN DISTRIBUTION OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND INFORMATION ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CREATION OF NEW OR OFFSHOOT INDUSTRIES INCREASES IN WORKER PRODUCTIVITY AND WAGES SERVICE OFFERINGS AT LOWER PRICES TO THE CONSUMER JOBS MULTIPLIER 29

30 BROADBAND AT THE START OF 2012, THERE WERE MORE THAN 1 BILLION MOBILE-BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS WORLDWIDE. MOBILE BROADBAND HAS BECOME THE SINGLE MOST DYNAMIC ICT SERVICE REACHING A 40% ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION GROWTH (2011). AT THE START OF 2012, IN AFRICA THERE WERE LESS THAN 5 MOBILE-BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS PER 100 INHABITANTS AND THE NUMBER OF FIXED-WIRED BROADBAND CONNECTIONS WAS ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE, INDICATING WHERE THE COST- EFFECTIVENESS OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY CAN BE FOUND IN THIS REGION. 30

31 (FLUID) TRANSMISSION SPEED DEFINITIONS (FCC, 2010) BROADBAND: 4 Mb/s ; 1 Mb/s STANDARD DEFINITION TV: 4 Mb/s HIGH DEFINITION TV: Mb/s *THE CURRENT ITU DEFINITION OF BROADBAND IS 256 kb/s. 31

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34 GROWTH IN BROADBAND WORLDWIDE

35 WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM GLOBAL AGENDA (2013) SELF-HEALING MATERIALS (COMPUTERS) REMOTE SENSING (iphone / ipad TO WRIST BAND) ORGANIC ELECTRONICS & PHOTOVOLTAICS CARBON DIOXIDE CONVERSION ENERGY EFFICIENT H 2 O PURIFICATION 3-D PRINTING AND REMOTE MANUFACTURING PRECISE DRUG DELIVERY THROUGH NANOSCALE ENGINEERING 35

36 WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO) AND TELECOMMUNICATION TRADE LIBERALIZATION WTO MEMBERSHIP ALLOWS MEMBERS TO MAKE BINDING TREATY COMMITMENTS IN SPECIFIC SECTORS, INCLUDING TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES WTO MEMBERS HAVE MADE SPECIFIC GATS COMMITMENTS IN SOME OR ALL ASPECTS OF TRADE IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES IN BASIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS 36 SOURCE: ITU TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDICATORS

37 WTO AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES WTO REFERENCE PAPER, ADOPTED BY A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS MAKING COMMITMENTS IN BASIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS, IMPOSES OBLIGATIONS REGARDING: COMPETITIVE SAFEGUARDS INTERCONNECTION UNIVERSAL SERVICE LICENSING REGULATOR INDEPENDENCE SCARCE RESOURCE ALLOCATION (E.G., NUMBERS & SPECTRUM) 37 SOURCE: ITU TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDICATORS

38 WHY WTO GATS COMMITMENTS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS MATTER TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES COMMITMENTS FUNCTION AS A WELL-KNOWN SIGNALING DEVICE TO INVESTORS AND FOREIGN SERVICE SUPPLIERS COMMITMENTS CAN CREATE MOMENTUM FOR FURTHER DOMESTIC SECTOR REFORM, AND IT CAN ALSO ANCHOR THOSE REFORMS WITHIN AN INTERNATIONAL LEGAL FRAMEWORK TO GUARD AGAINST POLICY REVERSAL DEPENDING ON SPECIFICS, COMMITMENTS COULD PROMOTE CONSUMER WELFARE AND TELEDENSITY, COMPETITION, AND PRIVATIZATION INITIATIVES 38

39 WTO COUNTRIES SECTOR REVENS AS % OF GDP YEAR WTO TELECOMS COMMITMENT COUNTRIES WITH BASIC TELECOM COMMITMENTS PERFORMED BETTER GREATER SECTOR REVENUES THAN COUNTRIES WITHOUT BASIC TELECOM COMMITMENTS FASTER GROWTH RATES 39

40 All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them. Galileo Galilei THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? 40