MD&A. Growing Subscribers with Slightly Decreasing ARPU CONTENTS
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1 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS F Y 2011 MD&A CONTENTS I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2011 was a significant year for dtac as we began our entire network upgrade and our 3G HSPA on 850 MHz launch which was our major step in providing the best network experience for our customers under Life Network campaign. Despite the floods in many major areas, dtac s performance was good with the growth of revenue and net profit of 9.6% and 8.5% from a year earlier, respectively. The major driver of such growth was data revenue and cost efficiency. In addition, dtac announced a special dividend at Baht per share as a result of the financial restructuring project. II OPERATION SUMMARY Due to the floods in many areas of the country, net additional subscribers and mobile phone usage (MoU) in 2011 decreased from those of the previous year. However, the usage in value added service especially data service had a significant growth from the continued increasing popularity in smart phones and social network applications. III FINANCIAL SUMMARY dtac continued generating high operating free cash flow, in spite of higher-than-last-year CAPEX, mainly driven by our higher revenue and capability in cost control even under the pressure from the increase in revenue sharing. Consequently, we could still had a record high net profit. IV 2012 OUTLOOK In 2012, value added service especially data service will continue to be the key driver of our revenue growth. This year, the full-year impact from the increase of revenue sharing to CAT at 30% will pressure our overall costs but the reduction in corporate income tax rate from 30% to 23% will be positive to our results. Executive Summary Strong Operations and the Launch of 3G HSPA on 850MHz dtac 2011 operations were strong in terms of both net profit and operating free cash flow net profit stood at Baht 11.8 billion, 8.5% up from the previous year and the operating free cash flow for the year 2011 was Baht 21.5 billion, equal to that of last year even though this year CAPEX was Baht 1.6 billion higher. Total revenues for 2011 grew at 9.6% YoY to Baht 79.3 billion from the increase in voice revenue and value added service especially data service revenue. Our EBITDA was still strong and we could maintain our level of high free cash flow despite the floods in many areas of the country and the increase in revenue sharing under concession in quarter was another year of continuing popularity in mobile internet as in robustly higher mobile phone usage as a result of the popularity in smart phones and social network applications. This momentum will still be carried into Net additional subscribers increased for 1.6 million in Although the growth was slower than that of last year, considering the mature market with the penetration rate at over 110%, such increase in net additional subscribers showed the growth prospect of the industry. The main drivers of the increase were the success from the launch of 3G HSPA on 850 MHz and our continuous effort in maintaining our customer base. In addition, in December, dtac entered into a facility agreement of Baht 30 billion with a local financial institution and announced a special dividend payment at Baht per share for the purposes of capital restructuring and future investments. On the regulatory update, in August, dtac officially launched the service of 3G HSPA on 850 MHz and in October, The National Broadcasting Communications and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), as the regulator governing the broadcasting, radio, television, and telecommunication sectors including frequency allocation, was officially established. The formation of NBTC demonstrated the development of the Thai telecommunication industry with a clear direction leading to the frequency and industry master plans, frequency allocation and licensing processes accordingly. Operation Summary Growing Subscribers with Slightly Decreasing ARPU At the end of 2011, total subscriber base rose to 23.2 million, net additional subscribers were 1.6 million from the previous year. Although the growth was slower than that of last year, considering the mature market with the penetration rate at over 110%, such increase in net additional subscribers showed the growth prospect of the industry. Postpaid net additional subscribers for the full year 2011 were 73,197, 110% increase from the earlier year, reflecting the success in our launch of 3G HSPA on 850 MHz and our INVESTOR RELATIONS 1
2 Q411 Q311 Q410 Postpaid 2,399 2,359 2,326 Prepaid 20,817 20,506 19,294 Total 23,217 22,865 21,620 Table 1: Total active subscribers (in thousand) Q411 Q311 Q Postpaid Prepaid ,523 1,929 Total ,596 1,963 Table 2: Net additional subscribers (in thousand) continuous effort in maintaining our customer base. For Q411, dtac had net additional subscribers of 0.4 million, strong growth from the previous quarter due to the high seasonality in the fourth quarter. Mobile phone usage in 2011 dropped from last year as a result of our effort in modifying packages by reducing free minutes. MoU without IC and with IC decreased for 8.2% and 7.9% from a year earlier. However, MoU in Q411 slightly increased at 0.2% from the previous quarter but decreased at 8.4% from the same quarter last year. Such decrease could be explained by the floods in many areas of the country. Blended ARPU with and without IC in 2011 slightly decreased at 0.8% and 1.5% from the previous year respectively. The decrease rate slowed down due to the growth in value added service usage especially mobile phone usage. For Q411, blended ARPU without IC increased for 1.5% from the previous quarter due to seasonality but decreased for 0.5% from the same period last year due to increasing subscribers. Postpaid MoU declined at 3.5% for the full year 2011 but ARPU without IC increased by 1.6% from 2010 as the increase in VAS revenue offsetting the reduction in voice revenue. However, in 2011, prepaid ARPU without IC slightly decreased by 0.1% from 2010 Financial Summary Strong Revenue and Net Profit but MoU sharply declined at 8.7% from our effort in modifying packages by reducing free minutes. In Q411, the strongly increasing contribution from VAS revenue on ARPU was clearly seen. Postpaid ARPU without IC increased at 2.0% and MoU increased at 4.9% QoQ but prepaid ARPU without IC remained the same level as the previous quarter with 2.0% drop in MoU. In comparing to the same quarter last year, postpaid ARPU without IC increased by 4.2% but prepaid ARPU without IC decreased by 1.1%. Postpaid % % % - w/o IC % % % Prepaid % % % - w/o IC % % % Blended % % % - w/o IC % % % Table 3: MOU (minutes/sub/month) Postpaid % % % - w/o IC % % % Prepaid % % % - w/o IC % % % Blended % % % - w/o IC % % % Table 4: ARPU (THB/sub/month) Operating Revenues Driven by Growth of VAS and Smart Phone Usage Total operating revenues for 2010 amounted to to Baht 79.3 billion, growing 9.6% from the previous year which well achieved our target of high single digit growth and 10.1% growth from normalized 2010 revenue. The strong growth was mainly from continuously increasing number of subscribers and robustly high mobile internet as seen in the strongest growth in VAS. As a result, the contribution from VAS to service revenues without IC highly rose from 13.9% in 2010 to 17.4% in 2011 although voice revenue was still the biggest contributor to the company s overall service revenues. Operating revenues consists of: 1) Voice revenue for 2011 increased at 3.9% YoY from strong expansion of subscriber base. For Q411, voice revenue slightly increased at 0.6% QoQ from higher subscriber base. R e v e n u e f r o m v o i c e s e r v i c e accounted for 74.8% of total service revenues without IC, decreasing from 74.9% in Q311 and from 75.8% in Q410 due to higher contribution from VAS. 2) Revenue from Value Added Services (VAS) for 2011 showed the strongest growth of 34.3% YoY from continuously increasing in mobile internet usage as a result of growing number of smart phone users. VAS revenue in Q411 grew 12.0% QoQ and 35.2% YoY from season s greeting in the fourth quarter and highly increasing mobile internet usage. For Q411, revenue from VAS represented 19.3% of service INVESTOR RELATIONS 2
3 revenues without IC, rising from 17.4% in Q311 and 15.0% in Q410. 3) Revenue from International Roaming (IR) service in 2011 declined 16.1% YoY following the contraction of tourism industry due to floods in many areas of the country in the second half of the year. For Q411, IR revenue decreased at 16.2% QoQ and 40.6% YoY because in Q411 the floods affected the major areas which were Bangkok and vicinity including Ayudhaya which were the country s key Service revenues 14,953 14, % 14, % 58,577 54, % Interconnection revenue 3,834 3, % 3, % 14,611 14, % Handsets and starter kits sale 1,490 1, % 1, % 5,844 3, % Other operating income % % % Total revenues 20,308 19, % 18, % 79,298 72, % regulatory fees 4,840 4, % 3, % 16,705 14, % Cost of services 1,898 1, % 1, % 7,014 6, % Interconnection cost 3,572 3, % 3, % 13,531 13, % Cost of handset and starter kits 1, % % 5,128 2, % Total operating costs 11,682 10, % 9, % 42,379 37, % Gross profit 8,626 9, % 9, % 36,919 35, % SG&A 2,563 2, % 2, % 9,777 10, % Other income % % % EBITDA 6,114 7, % 6, % 27,296 25, % Depreciation and amortization 2,659 2, % 2, % 10,479 10, % Interest income % % % Gain/Loss on foreign exchange % % % EBIT 3,676 4, % 4, % 17,509 15, % Financial cost % % , % Income tax -1,221-1, % % -5,266-3, % Net profit for the period 2,380 3, % 2, % 11,812 10, % Table 5: Income statement * 2010 figures included retroactive IC settlement with CAT/Hutch and gain from the disposal of Chai Building Q411 e c o n o m i c z o n e a n d t o u r i s t attractions. Moreover, as growth in voice revenue and VAS revenue was higher, the contribution from IR revenue to service revenue without IC in Q411 stood at 3.0%, decreasing from 3.6% in Q311 and from 5.3% in Q410. 4) Interconnection Revenue (IC) for 2011 increased for 3.7% from For Q411, IC revenue grew at 6.5% QoQ and 8.3% YoY. 5) Other service revenues, comprising mainly revenues from IDD services Q311 Amt % Amt % Q410 %QoQ %YoY Amt % and other fees, for 2011 increased for 2.5% from 2010, but for Q411, it decreased at 30.8% QoQ and 25.1% YoY. Revenue from telephone sets and starter kits sale for the full year grew due to the popularity in smart phones and tablets from Apple, Samsung and Blackberry. It strongly increased at 89.6% from last year. For Q411, revenue from handsets and starter kits sale grew at 33.3% QoQ and 48.7% YoY from the launch of iphone4s in the late quarter Amt % Amt % %YoY Voice 11, % 11, % 0.6% 10, % 3.6% 44, % 42, % 3.9% - postpaid 2, % 2, % -1.4% 2, % 0.6% 11, % 11, % -1.2% - prepaid 8, % 8, % 1.3% 8, % 4.7% 33, % 31, % 5.8% VAS 2, % 2, % 12.0% 2, % 35.2% 10, % 7, % 34.3% IR % % -16.2% % -40.6% 2, % 2, % -16.1% Others % % -30.8% % -25.1% 2, % 2, % 2.5% Service revenues ex. IC 14, % 14, % 0.7% 14, % 4.9% 58, % 54, % 7.2% IC* 3,834 3, % 3, % 14,611 14, % Service revenues 18,786 18, % 17, % 73,188 68, % Table 6: Breakdown of service revenues *2010 figures included a one-timee retroactive IC cost to CAT/Hutch. INVESTOR RELATIONS 3
4 Operating Costs Pressure from Increase in Revenue Sharing Increase in revenue sharing to 30% in September 2011 directly impacted the operating costs, which increased by 7.3% from last year despite the reduction in network OPEX. Excluding regulatory and IC costs, operating costs increased at 4.1% from the earlier year. Operating costs mainly include: 1) Regulatory costs comprised of revenue sharing to CAT and numbering fee to the regulator. For 2011, the regulatory costs increased at 13.7% YoY in line with service revenue growth and the increase in revenue sharing effective in the late September. For Q411, regulatory costs increased at 18.5% QoQ and 23.3% YoY. 2) Network OPEX declined 4.3% from 2010, driven by lower electricity and maintenance costs from replacement of old equipment and renegotiation of service agreements with external service providers. For Q411, network OPEX increased at 9.0% QoQ and 19.5% YoY mainly from network expansion. 3) Interconnection cost (IC) declined for 2011 increased at 1.9% from 2010 and Q411 IC cost increased 8.9% QoQ and 8.4% YoY. Moreover, dtac had net IC balance for the year 2011 at Baht 1,080 million from Baht 159 million in 2010 (excluding a onetime retroactive IC revenue from CAT at Baht 653 million). For Q411, dtac had net IC balance at Baht 262 Regulatory 4,840 4, % 3, % 16,705 14, % Network % % 3,149 3, % IC* 3,572 3, % 3, % 13,531 13, % Others 1, % % 3,866 3, % Operating cost of services 10,309 9, % 8, % 37,251 34, % Table 7: Breakdown of operating cost of services *2010 figures included a one-time retroactive IC cost to CAT/Hutch. Selling & marketing expenses General administrative expenses % % 2,909 2, % 1,812 1, % 1, % 6,702 6, % Provision for bad debt % % % SG&A expenses 2,563 2, % 2, % 9,777 10, % Table 8: Breakdown of SG&A million decreasing from Baht 320 million in Q311 but slightly increasing from Baht 245 million in Q410. 4) Other cost of services, including prepaid card production costs and commissions, IR and IDD costs, insurance costs and other operating costs, for 2011 increased at 12.0% from last year from network expansion and increase in insurance affected from flooding. Other cost of service in Q411 declined by 8.4% QoQ and 8.8% YoY due to decreasing IR and IDD activities. Cost of telephone sets and starter kits for 2011 increased at 102.2% from 2011 following the increase in corresponding revenues but at a larger extent due to lower margin in handsets than that of starter kits. For Q411, this cost increased by 40.5% QoQ and 60.8% YoY. Selling, General and Administrative Expenses (SG&A) Slightly Decreased SG&A SG&A slightly improved for the 3 rd consecutive year since the start of cost efficiency programs in the beginning of For 2011, SG&A decreased by 2.5% from 2010 mainly from lower provision for doubtful accounts. For Q411, SG&A slightly increased by 1.4% QoQ but decreased by 2.5% YoY. SG&A comprise: 1) Selling and marketing expenses or the year 2011 increased at 4.5% from last year while the proportion to total revenues dropped from 3.8% in 2010 to 3.7% in However, selling and m a r k e ting e x p e n s e s i n Q decreased by 13.3% QoQ due to the marketing events for the launch of 3G HSPA on 850 MHz in quarter 3 but increased by 5.1% YoY. The proportion to total revenues for Q411 stood at 3.6%, decreasing from 4.3% in Q311 and slightly decreasing from 3.7% in Q410. 2) General administrative expenses for 2011 increased at 2.1% from last year. The proportion to total revenues for the year stood at 8.5%, decreasing from 9.1% in For Q 4 1 1, g e n e ra l a d m i n i s t ra tive expenses increased by 8.8% QoQ and 2.5% YoY from the increase in consultancy fees and donations. The proportion to total revenues for Q411 stood at 8.9%, increasing from 8.5% in Q311 but decreasing from 9.3% in Q410. 3) Provision for doubtful accounts for 2011 strongly decreased by 75.6% from last year as a result of continued focus on quality of subscribers and change in method of doubtful accounts provisioning from percentage of revenue to aging method. For Q411, provision for doubtful accounts increased by 9.5% QoQ (effect from low provision base in Q311) and significantly decreased by 91.0% YoY. Depreciation and Amortization Up from additional CAPEX 1) Amortization of deferred rights for 2011 slightly rose by 0.4% from 2010 from network expansion and shorter amortization period from fewer years under concession. The network was expanded to serve increasing demand especially in mobile internet. For Q411, the amortization of deferred rights remained the same as the previous quarter and slightly increased by 0.2% YoY. 2) Depreciation and amortization of SG&A for the year 2011 increased by 8.0% from last year from investment in computer system and new social network applications. For Q411, this expense decreased by 2.0% QoQ but increased by 12.5% YoY. INVESTOR RELATIONS 4
5 Amortization of deferred right Depreciation and amortization - SG&A EBITDA and Net Profit EBITDA Margin Affected by Increase in Revenue Sharing EBITDA in 2011 was Baht 27.3 billion, increasing by 6.3% from 2010 and 9.7% in normalized EBITA as a result of strong revenue and continued cost efficiency. EBITDA margin, however, decreased to 34.1% from the increase in revenue sharing despite our continued cost efficiency. For Q411, EBITDA decreased by 12.8% QoQ and 7.8% YoY. EBITDA margin in Q411 stood at 29.7%, significantly decreased from 35.4% in Q311 and 34.7% in Q410 as a full impact from increase in revenue sharing. Net profit for the year 2011 grew at 8.5% from 2010 from increasing EBITDA and lower financial cost from debentures repayment and the growth of normalized net profit YoY was 14.1%. For Q411, net profit 2,159 2, % 2, % 8,540 8, % % % 1,940 1, % D&A expenses 2,659 2, % 2, % 10,479 10, % Table 9: Depreciation and amortization expenses declined by 22.6% QoQ and 19.3% YoY. Balance Sheet and Key Financial Information Continued Solid Financial Position Total assets at the end of 2011 stood at Baht billion increasing from Baht 99.3 billion at the end of 2010 from the increase in cash and cash equivalent. Interest-bearing debt at the end of 2011 was Baht 4.6 billion, decreasing from Baht 8.9 billion at the end of 2010 as a result of debentures and long-term loans repayment. Shareholders equity at the end of 2011 was Baht 34,888 billion, decreasing from Baht 68,878 billion as a result of capital restructuring and special dividend announcement of Baht per share. Operating free cash flow (defined as EBITDA - CAPEX) for the full year 2011 was Baht 21.5 billion, higher than our target of Baht 20.0 billion as a result of growing revenue despite the higher CAPEX for the year 2011 at Baht 5.8 billion, Baht 1.6 billion up from 2010, which focused on network upgrade to serve higher demand in data as well as network improvement and expansion. In addition, dtac s cash flow used in financing activities stood at Baht 11.8 billion from debentures and long-term loans repayment and dividend payment of Baht 7.4 billion. In total, for the year 2011, dtac generated a net cash inflow of Baht 9.3 billion and our cash including short-term investments stood at Baht 22.0 at the end of Cash and cash equivalent 21,973 12,648 Other current assets 9,152 8,853 Non-current assets 72,722 77,813 Total assets 103,847 99,313 Current liabilities 64,850 25,178 Non-current liabilities 4,109 5,258 Total liabilities 68,959 30,435 Shareholders equity 34,888 68,878 Total liabilities and shareholders equity Table 10: Balance sheet 103,847 99, Outlook Continued Mobile Data Service as Key Driver In 2011, voice service recovered from the increase in subscriber base. However, VAS was the key growth driver and is expected to maintain its growth in 2012 especially the mobile internet and data service. The popularity in smart phones, tablets and social network applications will remain high. dtac has invested in the most advanced technology to serve this growing trend and to ensure the best network experience for our customers. Our guidance for 2012, we expect the net additional subscribers for the industry at million despite the exceeded 110% penetration rate. We expect our revenue growth at the high single digit in which the main growth drivers remain increasing number of subscribers and increasing data service. CAPEX for 2012 will be in the range of Baht billion and the operating free cash flow will be approximately Baht billion. We would like to point out that 2012 results will be affected by: Full-year impact from revenue sharing under concession at 30%; and Reduction in corporate income tax rate from 30% to 23%. CONTACT US: TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION PLC. Investor Relations Department 319 Chamchuri Square, 28 th Fl., Phayathai Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok Tel: (66) Fax: (66) IR@dtac.co.th Kaewridthara Viriyawathana Kansinee Payakjumroen INVESTOR RELATIONS 5
6 Appendix Active vs Registered subscribers Q411 Q311 %QoQ Q410 %YoY Active subscribers Postpaid 2,399,371 2,359, % 2,326, % Prepaid 20,817,137 20,505, % 19,294, % Total 23,216,508 22,864, % 21,620, % Registered subscribers Postpaid 2,399,371 2,359, % 2,326, % Prepaid 23,839,113 23,065, % 21,647, % Total 26,238,484 25,424, % 23,974, % INVESTOR RELATIONS 6
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