ITU-D Workshop on NGN and Regulation for India. Trends on Convergence and Migration Leaps

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1 ITU-D Workshop on NGN and Regulation for India Trends on Convergence and Migration Leaps New Delhi (India), October 2010 Oscar González Soto ITU Consultant Expert Spain New Delhi, India, October 2010 ITU - Trends on Convergence - OGS Union

2 Agenda Convergence Convergence related questions Dimensions and profiles Key factors: Economies of scale Market and Business trends per category Technology and Business Leapfrogging Union 2

3 Convergence related questions Does convergence refer only to Fixed and Mobile? Does convergence matter only to developed countries? Is convergence more expensive? What benefits may be addressed by convergence? How convergence may help developing countries? Others? Union 3

4 Convergence dimensions Convergence is taking place at several domains At Network domain One network for all service types: NGN, IMS At Service domain Fixed, Nomadic, Mobile, Interactive and Broadcasting, Content, etc. At radio Access domain DECT, WiMax, 3G, LTE, etc. At Operational and Business domain OSS, Billing, etc, for all customer classes At Terminal domain 2G, 3G, PDA, iphone, etc. Union 4

5 Convergence profiles Level of convergence Convergence Domain Separated Implementation Low level convergence Medium level convergence Full convergence Network Core Operations Services Network Access and Edge Terminals Traditional Mode of Operation Initial traditional status: Separated networks, services and operations Union 5

6 Convergence profiles Level of convergence Convergence Domain Separated Implementation Low level convergence Medium level convergence Full convergence Network Core Operations Services Network Access and Edge Terminals Traditional Mode of Operation Transition Convergence Profile Example of convergence for most operators in developed economies Union 6

7 Convergence profiles Level of convergence Convergence Domain Separated Implementation Low level convergence Medium level convergence Full convergence Network Core Operations Services Network Access and Edge Terminals Traditional Mode of Operation Transition Convergence Profile Ambitious Convergence Profile Example for leading operators on convergence (100% on core and 30 to 70% on edge and access) Union 7

8 Convergence profiles Level of convergence Convergence Domain Separated Implementation Low level convergence Medium level convergence Full convergence Network Core Operations Services Network Access and Edge Terminals Traditional Mode of Operation Transition Convergence Profile Ambitious Convergence Profile Complete Convergence Profile Future profile driven by: Initial status, Market development, Economy of scale and Operator Strategy Union 8

9 Key Factors: Economies of scale Economies of scale (EoS) are an inherent characteristic to the telecom technologies that impact on solutions, efficiency and cost reduction The five dimensions of the economy of scale: Benefits per dimension By Size of the systems By Technology capabilities By Traffic efficiency with the occupancy By customers Density By Volume of purchasing Cost reduction per unit (i.e.: 10% to 30%) New technologies with higher productivity (i.e.: x10) Better utilization for a given GoS when larger systems (i.e.: +20%) Quadratic decrease with coverage radio increase Discount per volume in log scale (i.e.: up to 40%) Union 9

10 Economy of scale per system size Cost per unit u 1 u 1 = a 1+ B / S 1 u u = a B 2 / S Full capacity cost m 1 m 2 X M 1 M 2 t 2 t 1 m 1 m 2 X M 1 M 2 Equipment size t = a S + B t = a S + B Equipment size Cost reduction as function of size and occupancy Union 10

11 Cost reduction per technology evolution. Example for Ethernet ports $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Source: Dell Oro Group Union 11

12 Economy of scale per traffic efficiency Impact on efficiency increase for a given quality with traffic and group size (non-linear effect) 0.9 Resource Efficiency P = Offered Traffic Union 12

13 Cost reduction per technology evolution. Example for fixed BB residential access in EU [Source: Analysys Mason, 2010] Union 13

14 Agenda Convergence Convergence related questions Dimensions and profiles Key factors: Economies of scale Market and Business trends per category Technology and Business Leapfrogging Union 14

15 Business domains and trends Example of Value Added chain and operators movements to gain economy of scale and market Applications and Services Network nucleus Edge Metropolitan network Local Access Agreements with content providers and e-commerce Application Service Providers Internet Service Providers (ISPs) Backbone Service Providers (BSPs) Agreements and merging Agreements with wholesale operators Acquisition/merging of service providers Development of new access loops and Unbundling Access Providers (CAPs) Agreements with content providers New multi-service development Agreements with content and application service providers Mobile Service Providers (MSPs) Established Service Providers (ESPs) FMC Union 15

16 Business Planning case Evaluations to be based on robust techno-economical tools due to high number of alternatives and complexity Case study performed for medium size country with mixes of customer classes and services domains: Multiservice IP Network with integrated operation available Three service categories: Voice, Data/Internet, Video distribution Modeling demands, multiservice traffic flows, dimensioning, network resources, CAPEX, OPEX and financial results for different levels of competition Evaluate differential future Cash-flows, NPV, IRR, etc. for a 10 years period Union 16

17 Business Planning case Effects of the mix of customers on Reference Scenario: Low competition level Network NPV 8e+08 7e+08 Euro 6e+08 5e+08 4e+08 3e+08 2e+08 SOHO and Small Enterprise All Segments (reference) Residential 1e+08 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 0e+08-1e+08 Year SME and SOHO with quicker recovery but less NPV and company value at medium term All customer segments case with much better behavior Union 17

18 Business Planning case Effects of the mix of services on Reference Scenario: Low competition level Network NPV 7e+08 Euro 6e+08 5e+08 4e+08 3e+08 2e+08 1e+08 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 0e+08 Internet Internet & VoDSL Internet & Video All Services (reference) -1e+08-2e+08 Year Major impact of service classes on NPV and company survivability Single service classes without future High benefit of all services case Union 18

19 Business Planning case Effects of the mix of services on typical scenario: Medium competition level Network NPV 5e+08 Euro 4e+08 3e+08 2e+08 1e+08 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 0e+08 Internet Internet & VoDSL Internet & Video All Services (reference) -1e+08-2e+08 Year Increase of competition level amplifies the previous effects on feasibility: big differences between service mixes Data only or single service classes without feasibility at medium term Very robust behavior for the all services case Union 19

20 Agenda Convergence Convergence related questions Dimensions and profiles Key factors: Economies of scale Market and Business trends per category Technology and Business Leapfrogging Union 20

21 Technological alternatives at core Scenario A Circuit based Scenario B Packet based Dark Fiber Managed Lambda Bandwidth Multiservice ATM/FR/IP ATM VPN, IP VPN Ethernet ptp Internet Gbit access IP VPN LAN to LAN connection ATM/FR IP SDH Optical switching DWDM equipment Optical fiber GigE,10/100BT Ficon,Escon, Physical Infrastructure Fibre Ch.. IP Routing Ethernet GigE Union 21

22 Network Architecture towards NGN Trends in WLL technologies for Bandwidth and Mobility Convergence of different radio systems towards the integration of solutions and services at the IMT advanced Union 22

23 Network Architecture towards NGN Trends in UMTS solutions for higher capacity and performance Evolution of the 3G and 3,5G versions towards 4G with increasing speeds and decreasing latency time Union 23

24 Network Architecture towards NGN Fixed network steps/leapfrogging Grow for Bandwidth Cost decrease per bit NGN pre-ims NGN full IMS NGN-SWST ATM/FR/SDH PSTN Analog PSTN Digital ISDN Steps by developed countries Technology timed evolution Historical migration steps for fixed network operators with early development and services deployment Union 24

25 Network Architecture towards NGN Fixed network steps/leapfrogging Grow for Bandwidth Cost decrease per bit Example of Leapfrog for developing countries NGN pre-ims NGN full IMS NGN-SWST ATM/FR/SDH PSTN Digital ISDN Steps by developed countries PSTN Analog Technology timed evolution Migration strategy is strongly dependent on country opportunity, infrastructure and service maturity Union 25

26 Network Architecture towards NGN Fixed Access network steps/leapfrogging Grow for Bandwidth Cost decrease per bit VDSL FTTB FTTH ADSL2+ Modem 64 Modem 128 ADSL Steps by developed countries Technology timed evolution Historical migration steps for internet access operators with early development and services deployment Union 26

27 Network Architecture towards NGN Fixed Access network steps/leapfrogging Grow for Bandwidth Cost decrease per bit Example of Leapfrog for developing countries VDSL FTTB FTTH ADSL2+ Modem 64 Modem 128 ADSL Steps by developed countries Technology timed evolution Migration strategy is strongly dependent on country opportunity, infrastructure and service maturity Union 27

28 Network Architecture towards NGN Mobile network steps/leapfrogging Grow for Bandwidth Cost decrease per bit HSPA+ LTE UMTS GSM/EDGE NMT GSM GSM/GPRS Steps by developed countries Technology timed evolution Historical migration steps for mobile operators with early development and services deployment Union 28

29 Network Architecture towards NGN Mobile network steps/leapfrogging Current status for deployment of 3G networks and beyond as reported by 3G Americas organization Union 29

30 Network Architecture towards NGN Mobile network steps/leapfrogging Grow for Bandwidth Cost decrease per bit Example of Leapfrog for developing countries HSPA+ LTE UMTS GSM/EDGE GSM GSM/GPRS Steps by developed countries NMT Technology timed evolution Migration strategy is strongly dependent on country opportunity, infrastructure and service maturity Union 30

31 Business Migration Leaps staircase for leading growing alternatives Extension for new customer types Customers for connectivity Classic Telcos Upgraded Telcos Extension for new services domains Conventional voice and data services + Services of IN, VPN and Mobile Union 31

32 Business Migration Leaps staircase for leading growing alternatives + Customers for new services Extension for new customer types Extended Telcos Customers for connectivity Classic Telcos Upgraded Telcos Extension for new services domains Conventional voice and data services + Services of IN, VPN and Mobile + Internet and video Distribution (triple play) Union 32

33 Business Migration Leaps staircase for New Universal Telcos + Customers for end applications + Customers for new services Extension for new customer types ISPs New Universal Telcos Extended Telcos ASPs Customers for connectivity Classic Telcos Upgraded Telcos Extension for new services domains Conventional voice and data services + Services of IN, VPN and Mobile + e-applications, + Internet and video Hosting, CC and distribution (triple play) Virtual Net Specific migration and timeframe to be optimized for the country context and regulatory conditions Union 33

34 Business Migration Leaps Evolution of revenues with service domains Revenue level (ARPU) ASPs Video and multiservice voice revenues IN and data Time and Extension for new services domains Conventional voice and data services + Services of IN, VPN and Mobile + Internet and video distribution (triple play) + e-applications, Hosting, CC and Virtual Net Convergence strategy is fundamental to grow in a competitive environment Union 34

35 Conclusions Recent higher capacity technologies take benefit of economies of scale and are cheaper per communication unit Skipping intermediate development steps will reduce transition and operational costs Selection of Leaps per country is a function of initial maturity stage and demand growing rate Developing countries may benefit from a business staircase strategy based on the experiences at developed ones Union 35

36 Recommendations Take benefit of experiences, benchmarking and proper modeling of key techno-economical factors Focus on consolidated migration steps and technologies with multiple services domains Take benefit of all economies of scale!! Which convergence will happen? Combination Driven by Market, Economy of scale and Competition!! Union 36

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