G2M Research Fall 2017 NVMe Market Sizing Webinar

Transcription

1 G2M Research Fall 2017 NVMe Market Sizing Webinar October 24, 2017

2 G2M Research NVMe Market Report Agenda State of the NVMe Market and Key Predictions Use Cases, Drivers, and Hurdles for Various NVMe SSD Form Factors; NVMe Servers NVMe All-Flash Arrays, Storage Appliance, and NVMe over Fabric Markets: Evolving Together NVMe Key Company Awards Final Thoughts G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

3 State of the NVMe Market

4 Key Highlights From the NVMe Ecosystem The # of available NVMe SSD models/series has increased 46% in the last 12 months Major All-Flash Array (AFA) companies are now starting to build around NVMe and NVMe-oF Several OEMs have significantly expanded their NVMe server offerings (but not Dell or HPE) NVMe over Fabric (NVMe-oF) has finally started to get traction within the storage market G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

5 Total NVMe Ecosystem: $60B by 2021 $70, $60, WW Revenue - NVMe M.2 SSDs ($M; includes Hyperscale NVMe M.2 SSDs) WW Revenue - Enterprise PCIe AOC NVMe SSDs ($M; includes hyperscale PCIe AOC NVMe SSDs) WW Revenue - Enterprise U.2 NVMe SSDs ($M) WW Revenue - Enterprise NVMe-oF Adapters ($M) $50, WW Revenue - Enterprise NVMe Storage Arrays ($M) WW Revenue - Enterprise Storage Appliances with NVMe Bays ($M) $40, WW Revenue - Enterprise Servers with NVMe Bays ($M) $30, $20, $10, $ (act) G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

6 NVMe Market Size and Health 1 NVMe SSDs: 21 companies, 67 series (+21) 2 NVMe Servers: 9 companies, 37 series (-2) 3 NVMe AFAs: 8 companies (+1) 4 NVMe Appliances: 7 companies (+6), 13 series (+11) 5 NVMe-oF HBA/NICs/RNICs: 4 companies, 7 series (+1) 6 NVMe-oF Accelerated Adapters: 5 companies (+2) G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

7 Top Forecasts for the NVMe Market The NVMe market will reach $60 Billion by 2021 (servers, software-defined storage servers, external arrays, I/O adapters) Over 50% of enterprise servers will be NVMe-enabled by 2019 (NVMe-enabled servers will average 5.6 U.2 bays per server) SDS Storage Appliances Over 70% of storage appliances will be NVMe-enabled by 2021 (The average storage appliance will have 30 U.2 NVMe SSDs) NVMe-oF adapter shipments will exceed 1.5M units by 2021 (Roughly 10% of these adapters will be accelerated, using FPGAs or SoCs) Over 70% of AFAs will be NVMe-based by 2020 (Over 2/3 of the NVMe-based AFAs will utilize U.2 SSDs in 2020) NVMe SSD Market Growth The market for NVMe SSDs will reach $9B by 2021 (U.2 NVMe SSDs will reach price parity with SATA SSDs in 2018) G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

8 NVMe SSDs and Servers U.2, M.2, and PCIe AOCs

9 NVMe Enterprise SSDs: A Tale of the Tape Not surprisingly, SSD capacity is directly related to form factor M.2 (2TB max) less than U.2 and PCIe AOC SSDs (11TB max) The number of models is also related to form factor M.2 (11 models), U.2 (26 models), PCIe AOC SSDs (29 models) BUT the CAGR ( ) for each is vastly different M.2: 40% CAGR (1.38M units shipped in 2016) U.2: 109% CAGR (853K units shipped in 2016) PCIe AOC: -1% CAGR (215K units shipped in 2016) Driving factors in the decline of PCIe AOCs: No capacity advantage vs U.2 # of open slots much lower for PCIe AOCs (and M.2) than for U.2 No ability to hot-swap PCIe AOCs (not true for U.2) G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

10 NVMe Enterprise SSD Use Cases M.2 SSDs: Boot devices, web servers, compute servers PCIe AOC SSDs: Application acceleration, databases U.2 SSDs: Mainline storage (arrays, storage appliances) Typical use case: 2 redundant M.2 SSDs/server (most M/Bs support 2 M.2s) Generally no storage/content mgmt issues (image mgmt only) Think of Facebook, distributed databases Significant storage/content mgmt issues (backup, migration, etc.) Servers with PCIe AOCs are data islands Replacement of enterprise SAS/SATA SSDs, HDDs Also replacement of PCIe AOC NVMe SSDs G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

11 NVMe Servers: More Companies, More Models 2016: NVMe U.2-capable servers available from 9 companies 39 models, but only 23 series (SuperMicro: 23 models, 9 series) Most had 10 or less U.2 bays (many with only 2 U.2 bays) 2017: NVMe U.2-capable servers available from 9 companies 37 actual server product series Growth in # of series at Lenovo (4), Oracle (8) Most have 4 or more U.2 bays; 8 series with 12 or more U.2 bays G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

12 NVMe Enterprise SSD Market Direction By end of 2019, 50% of enterprise 2.5 SSDs will be U.2 This is more architectural-driven than price/performance-driven Most motherboards will natively support U.2 NVMe drives NVMe will be at price parity with SAS/SATA at that point BUT 2.5 SAS/SATA drives won t go away anytime soon Expect AOC SSD users to migrate to U.2 in next few years Easer data management; hot-swappable; same capacity as AOCs AOC use cases limited to where x4 PCIe isn t enough for application SOFS MAY enable M.2 to take share from U.2 use cases Simplifies storage and data management problem BUT won t start to happen until M.2 hits compelling capacities (think 8-16 TB; probably 3-4 years away) G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

13 NVMe AFAs, Storage Appliances, and NVMe-oF: Evolving Together

14 NVMe AFAs, Storage Appliances, NVMe-oF in 2016 Most NVMe arrays from startups in 2016 Limited data management capabilities ( big and fast thumb drives ) More technology demonstrations than real products Major AFA vendors (EMC, NetApp, Pure) were silent on NVMe In NVMe storage appliances, SuperMicro was the only company with purpose-built NVMe storage appliances NVMe-oF was struggling to get a foothold Real-world NVMe-oRoCE deployments were largely limited to Microsoft S2D storage appliance implementations NVMe-oFC deployments limited by weak market interest in Gen6 and enhanced Gen5 FC Use of NVMe-oF for host-target networking in AFAs limited by NVMe AFA issues mentioned above G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

15 NVMe AFAs, Storage Appliances, NVMe-oF in 2017 For NVMe AFAs, a lot has changed in 12 months Some NVMe array startups have exited the market Major AFA vendors have started using NVMe SSDs for media, and NVMe-oF for back-end fabric (Pure Storage, Kaminario, Tegile) Dell/EMC, NetApp seriously talking about NVMe for their products NVMe storage array market has exploded in size Total of 7 companies, 13 models of NVMe storage appliances (AIC, Micron, One Stop Systems, QNAP, QCT, SmartIOPS, Supermicro) For NVMe-oF, design win activity is in high gear Major AFA vendors start using NVMe-oF as back-end fabric Maturation of RoCE limitations becoming less problematic More NVMe-oF adapters, including accelerated NVMe-oF (targets) G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

16 NVMe AFAs and NVMe-oF: Intertwined Futures NVMe AFAs, NVMe-oF back-ends: compelling use case NVMe over Ethernet more robust than SAS/SATA as back-end fabric; 100GbE has more bandwidth than SAS 16x PCIe 3.0: more bandwidth for data movement inside JBOFs Data center back-end with NVMe-oF vs rack-level back-end with SAS/SATA NVMe-oF host-target connectivity: a work in progress Hurdles to real deployments (DCB switches, application readiness) slowly going away Availability of accelerated NVMe-oF adapters (SoCs, FPGAs) reduces workload for arrays to implement NVMe-oF Will see how NVMe-oTCP changes things for Ethernet NVMe-oF G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

17 Growing NVMe-oF Adapter Vendor Ecosystem 18 models of adapters from 6 companies Ethernet (NIC/RNIC): Broadcom, Cavium, Mellanox (also IB) Fibre Channel: Broadcom, Cavium Accelerated Ethernet: Attala, Broadcom, Kalray, Kazan, Mellanox A variety of factors likely to improve NVMe-oF market adoption Adoption of NVMe-oF by major array vendors, NVMe-oTCP, routable RoCE, SoftRoCE all positives for NVMe-oF Expect 2019 to see significant deployment of NVMe-oF G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

18 NVMe Storage Appliance Trends Big growth in storage appliances during last 12 months 7 companies (+6), 13 product series (+11) For storage appliances, NVMe flash doesn t necessarily mean NVMe-oF I/O between host and storage appliance iscsi, NFS, CIFS, CEPH, SWIFT are all still important Many customers use NVMe for future-proofing move, performance PCIe slots in storage appliances allow flexibility in future SOFS: NVMe-oF use case for storage appliances, HCI Example: Micron SolidScale (packages Excelero SOFS S/W) Other partnerships in the works G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

19 Scale-Out Flash Software: Market Disruptor (?) SOFS changes paradigm of how storage is deployed Allows pooling of disparate storage resources into one (or more) common namespaces Think of SOFS as DAS on steroids, without management issues Current SOFS software vendors: Elastifile, Excelero Other SOFS-capable offering from a variety of storage HW, HCI, SDS, and file system vendors (but most are not flash-specific) Those with software built around flash can bypass a variety of issues, and are more likely to be more performance-optimized G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

20 G2M NVMe Key Company Awards and Final Thoughts

21 NVMe Key Company Awards for 2017 NVMe SSDs NVMe Servers NVMe AFAs NVMe Storage Appliances NVMe-oF Intel SuperMicro Pure Storage SuperMicro Mellanox Beijing Memblaze, Micron Cisco Attala Systems Micron NGD Systems Oracle G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

22 Final Thoughts on NVMe in NVMe is inevitable think of it like Ethernet speeds 2 U.2 will be most popular form factor for NVMe SSDs 3 NVMe AFAs will start to take off in NVMe-oF will be enabled/paced by NVMe AFAs 5 Disaggregation of storage will become widespread 6 SAS/SATA (and HDDs) will be around for a long time G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

23 G2M Research Contact Information Chief Researcher: Mobile Web: (business) LinkedIn: - YouTube: - SlideShare: G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

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25 Acronyms and Definition Check Point Term Definition NVMe Non-Volatile Memory Express NVMe-oF NVMe Bay NVMe I/O Block NVMe Accelerator Block SSD Non-Volatile Memory Express over Fabrics (Ethernet, InfiniBand, Fiber Channel) NVMe connected 2.5 device slot typical installed into servers & arrays NVMe based I/O card (Ethernet, InfiniBand, Fiber Channel) NVMe based CPU, GPU or FPGA based card for analytics or clustering Solid State Drive M.2 A small form factor mezzanine SSD for laptops and cloud servers U.2 The new name for an SFF-8639 connector (primary NVMe Bay connector); 2.5 form factor RDMA Remote Direct Memory Access (Typically RoCE or iwarp ) RoCE iwarp AFA Hyperscale PCIe PCIe AOC SAS/SATA SATA Remote Direct Memory Access over Converged Ethernet internet Wide Area RDMA Protocol All Flash Array Non-enterprise servers or data center such as OCP, Cloud, Google etc. Peripheral Component Interconnect Express PCIe Add-On Card (for NVMe, usually an SSD form factor) Serial Attached SCSI/Serial Advanced Technology Attachment (originally a HDD interface) Serial AT (Advanced Technology) Attachment SOFS Scale-Out Flash Storage Software SDS G2M Communications, Inc.. All rights reserved. Software Defined Storage