What are the next Steps after the UN GGE?

Transcription

1 UNIDIR Conference on Cyber Stability Regime Coherence Geneva, 09 July 2015 What are the next Steps after the UN GGE? Karsten Geier Head, Cyber Policy Coordination Staff Federal Foreign Office Berlin, Germany Karsten Geier / 1

2 Numerous states are pursuing military cybercapabilities. Cyber capabilities are not limited to great military powers. Cyber stability is affecting international security. Karsten Geier / 2

3 Cyber capabilities are affecting international security. Cyber action is not limited to cyber space. It can create real damage in the physical world. Karsten Geier / 3

4 Four scenarios for the use of cyber capabilities in international conflict: (1) All-out cyber-war. (2) Limited use of cyber capabilities as part of a larger warfighting effort. (3) Use of cyber capabilities as an element in hybrid conflicts. (4) International military crisis developing from a cyber-action. Karsten Geier / 4

5 Favoring offense over defense, cyber capabilities provide an incentive to attack. They introduce a degree of uncertainty into international relations, which has the potential to be destabilizing. Diplomats and international security experts have to ask themselves how to respond. Karsten Geier / 5

6 2014/2015 GGE views on how international law applies to the use of ICTs by States cover: Jurisdiction over ICT infrastructure; State sovereignty; The inherent right of states to take measures consistent with international law and as recognized in the UN Charter; Where applicable, the principles of humanity, necessity, proportionality and distinction; The use of proxies; and International obligations regarding internationally wrongful acts. Karsten Geier / 6

7 GGE recommendations include voluntary, non-binding norms on: Measures to increase stability and security in the use of ICTs; Responses to ICT incidents; The use of State s territory for internationally wrongful acts; Cooperation concerning terrorist and criminal use of ICTs; Respect for human rights; ICT activity that intentionally damages critical infrastructure; States measures to protect critical infrastructure from ICT threats; Responses to requests for assistance in mitigating malicious ICT acts; The integrity of the supply chain, so that end users can have confidence in the security of ICT products; Reporting of ICT vulnerabilities and information on available remedies; and The role of CERTS. Karsten Geier / 7

8 Proposals for taking this work further: Convene another GGE; Establish an open-ended working group; Take the matter into the Geneva Conference on Disarmament; or Find alternative formats. Karsten Geier / 8

9 Convene Another GGE? Pro: Recommendation in 2014/2015 GGE report, noting need for further debate GGE format proven and successful. Secretary-General can select the most qualified individuals. Contra: 2014/2015 GGE has explored all discernible room for consensus. Further progress impossible. GGE does not represent international Community as a whole. Karsten Geier / 9

10 Open-Ended Working Group or Conference on Disarmament? Pro: Accessible to all Member States. Contra: Difficult to reach consensus. Unclear starting point. CD cannot even agree ist workplan. Unclear how to ensure availability of required expertise. Karsten Geier / 10

11 If the choice is between another GGE, an open-ended working group or the Conference on Disarmament, the GGE appears the only viable option. However, we may not wish to limit our choices, or we may wish to consider flanking measures. Karsten Geier / 11

12 Some Ideas: Task UNIDIR to undertake systematic monitoring of threats in the sphere of ICT security and the development of cyber capabilities by States. Convene an advisory board, composed of individuals invited by the Secretary General, bringing together government experts, industry experts and civil society representatives. Request advisory board to present annual report on ICT as it pertains to international peace and security. This would replace the current reports by the Secretary-General with the views of UN Member States on the issue. Karsten Geier / 12

13 Thank you for your attention. Karsten Geier / 13