G. Srinivasan/Rupa Kumar Kolli

Transcription

1 WMO G. Srinivasan/Rupa Kumar Kolli Contributors: A.R Subbiah/ Rodney Martinez/Kareff Rafisura/Ruby Rose/Jai Ganesh WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

2 Overview Climate information & services at national level Approach and structure of NCOFs Examples very briefly Conclusions WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

3 NMHSs provide Climate information and Services on a continuum of time-scales for Climate risk management and adaptation actions Impacts/ Risks/ Adaptation Current Climate Variability Future Climate Change Seasonal Decadal Weather scale Inter-annual yrs Synoptic Interpretation/ Statistical/ Dynamical/.[Seamless] 2100 From a user perspective Response Response to approaching Tropical Cyclone Reservoir water storage and release Planning/ Preparedness/ Preparedness to potential events now & future Planning for the whole wet or dry season or planning major infrastructural interventions Agriculture operations Formulating a range of package of practices to be adopted for WMO CCL XVI TECO irrigation, 2014, spraying, Heidelberg, harvest Germany etc. different 30 June seasonal 2014 situations 3

4 User Interface within GFCS User Interface Platform - to provide a means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water, health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism, transport, etc User Interface Climate Services Information System Observations and Research, Modeling Monitoring and Prediction Climate Risk Management Defined as a systematic and coordinated process in which CAPACITY BUILDING climate information is used to reduce the risks associated with climate variability and change, and to take advantage of opportunities, in order to improve the resilience of social, economic and environmental systems. WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

5 Need to provide platform(s) for climate services Picture: Mumbai city, India ~ million, 4 th largest, metro area km 2 Picture: Geneva, Switzerland ~ 0.9 million, Grand Geneva Canton WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

6 User Interface Feedback allows providers to obtain information on how needs for services are being met Dialogue - discussion and interpretation, improving the service chain through research and coordination Evaluation monitor, verify systematically the delivery and effectiveness of services Outreach improve communication and dissemination (both policy makers and downstream users) WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

7 WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

8 Potential National Mechanisms Framework for Climate Services at the national level well-coordinated arrangements between the key national institutions responsible for observations, research, tailored products and expert advice as well as the user sectors. National Climate Outlook Forums (NCOFs) Adapting the global and Regional scale forecasts to the national context Tailoring products and translating key messages for users (Multidisciplinary Working Groups) Facilitate understanding/interpretation of climate information provided for effective use Jointly Evaluating the impact of expected conditions (with existing vulnerabilities) Coordination mechanisms at National level Depend a lot on specific National context Depend a lot on the positioning of NMHS within the Framework at the national level Needs a strong and sustained users liaison Needs coordination of Research (including climate change aspects) Needs coordination of climate data and knowledge base WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

9 National Level Components of Climate Services GFCS Nat. Consultations National agencies agriculture and forestry, marine (coastal and ocean), water resources, health, energy, the environment and disaster management, and other climate sensitive sectors; National and local Govt. committees dealing with policy formulation involving a consideration of climatic issues NMHSs Primary climate information provider National Climate Outlook Forums Universities and other Research institutions Non-governmental organizations Private/public partnerships NCOFs WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

10 NMHSs: steps towards GFCS NMHSs already provide climate services Mandated both nationally and internationally Structured and trained to provide 24/7 services with standard practices Constitute a pool of technical expertise dealing with weather and climate WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

11 Categories of Infrastructural Capacities Climate Observations Climate Data Management Interaction with users Seasonal Climate Outlooks Climate Monitoring Specialised climate products Decadal Climate Prediction Basic Climate Services Cat 1 Essential Climate Services Cat 2 Full Climate Services Cat 3 Advanced Climate Service Cat 4 Long-term Climate Projections Customized climate products Climate Application Tools WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

12 Challenges CLIPS, 1995 development of operational climate predictions directed towards useful, user oriented applications National and regional systems to provision climate information and prediction services Confidence in convening a multi-stakeholder process Confidence their own products Concerns that limitations of predictions may get highlighted Human resources /infrastructure WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

13 NCOF Aim To facilitate provision of standardized climate products based on high quality climate information from Global Producing Centers (GPCs), Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) and relevant Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) at relevant timescales through a regular and sustained multi-stakeholder dialogue process between information provider and users at the national level. WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

14 NOCF Objectives Ensure that climate information products, including their uncertainties and limitations, are understood by and communicated to users. Discuss user views to make these climate information accessible, user-friendly and applicable. understanding risks and opportunities of past, current and future climate information; and for inter-agency coordination of policies, sectoral plans and programs linked to potential impacts of hydrometeorological hazards. Evolve a culture of working together through joint climate information interpretation sessions for managing risks in various climate-sensitive sectors, like agriculture, irrigation, disaster risk reduction and health. Strengthen and enhance the interface for inter-agency coordination of policies, sectoral plans, and an ongoing process of understanding and responding to risks posed/opportunities brought about by past, current, and future climate. WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

15 NCOF format NMHSs (co-organized with key stakeholders) to convene regular forums at least once around the onset of main season to ensure the receipt, interpretation, communication, and application of climate information for managing risks. during an appropriate month of the year to give enough lead-time for preparedness and contingency measures. A post-season verification may also be held with provisions for forecast delivery and application for a next season. WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

16 NCOF Agenda 1. National Climate Monitoring status; 2. Review of the seasonal forecast performance in the previous season; 3. Report of the actions taken by user agencies; 4. Delivery of current seasonal climate outlook, and discussion of potential impacts and preparedness measures to be undertaken; 5. Interpretation in sector specific working groups 6. Identification of areas for improvement and actions to address gaps in preparation for the coming season. 7. Special topics and current issues of interest may be also discussed climate change projections, impacts WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

17 Climate Monitoring National Climate Monitoring Products A set of about six NCMPs are being considered A balance between requirements by national users and needs of compiling the global climate Focus on anomalies and variability, rather than specifically long term changes Monthly areaaverage of total precipitation anomalies expressed as percentages Monthly areaaverage of standardised precipitation index (SPI) Monthly areaaveraged Percent of Time Tmax > 90th Percentile of Daily Maximum Temperature 7100 period for standardisation Significant climate and weather event relevant to the area or region. NCMP Guidance document WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

18 NCOF Agenda also addresses Support the integration of weather and climate information applications into broader national development platform. Support and encourage sub-national meetings and activities that would strengthen further application of climate services from national down to the local level. Soliciting the feedback (structured questionnaires) from users on the early warning information and services provided by NMHSs. Planning demo-projects to illustrate potential use in new areas Reporting brief, but provides summary of critical aspects WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

19 Pilot NCOFs Mozambique March 3 to 6, 2014 at Maputo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM) convened the meeting with more than 20 key national agencies participating Belize June 2014 At two location with stakeholders representing key sectors (more than 70 participants) Other similar - South America & South East Asia WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

20 Enhancing Utility of Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Managing Climate Change Risks. This component is being supported under the EC-FAO Food Security project on "Linking Information and Decision-Making to Improve Food Security in Selected Countries of the Greater Mekong Sub-Region". Cambodia was one of the three countries, where we were implementing this activity. What should be the Terms of Reference for the Forum meetings Organizers / Co-organizers MOWRAM/MAFF/CARD/NCDM? Frequency twice a year [one-day or two-day] Participation agencies / Level? (subnational invitees) Broad agenda? Expected outcomes Documentation / reporting of proceedings Implementation of the recommendations / outcomes Feedback and reporting to the forum Policy formulation at National level WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

21 In conclusion Lot of efforts are already being made by Members - Systematic and coordinated process for production and use of climate information - Integrated global to national levels - Capacities to build bridges and serve specific needs - Guidelines on Frameworks for Climate Services at the National Level, WMO, A comprehensive WMO NCOF guidance document under preparation WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June

22 Thank You WMO CCL XVI TECO 2014, Heidelberg, Germany 30 June