Climate Risk & National Security: People, not Polar Bears

Transcription

1 Climate Risk & National Security: People, not Polar Bears Rear Admiral Dave Titley, USN (ret.), Ph.D. Director, Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk Penn State University UNCLASSIFIED Counting the Cards in Nature s Casino 1

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6 The Food Challenge

7 Why we Care It s About People It s About Water UNCLASSIFIED It s About Change

8 450K Years of Variability

9 but 8K Years of Stability

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11 Global Temperatures ( )

12 Global Air Temperature Anomalies

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14 Recurrent Flooding in Norfolk Virginia

15 Number of Natural Disasters

16 A Typical Climate Projection

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19 Four Climate Impacts on a Military Capacity Readiness New Missions Arctic Impacts to Bases Disaster Relief Security Threats

20 Four Climate Impacts on a Military Capacity Readiness New Missions Arctic Impacts to Bases Disaster Relief Security Threats

21 It s an Ocean It s Changing It s not a Vacuum 23

22 Arctic Sea Ice ( ) UNCLASSIFIED 24

23 Additional Arctic Considerations + UNCLASSIFIED 25

24 Strategies abound

25 Arctic Trade Arctic Routes: Ice Coverage Today & Tomorrow Sea Routes Northern Sea Route 2025: 6 weeks open 41 controlling draft Transpolar Route 2025: 2 weeks open Deep ocean transit Northwest Passage 2025: intermittently open 33 controlling draft UNCLASSIFIED Courtesy: US Navy 2014 Arctic Roadmap Crossroads Sea route distances: Distance from the Bering Strait to

26 M/V NORDIC ORION Summer Cruise 2013

27 Four Climate Impacts on a Military Capacity Readiness New Missions Arctic Impacts to Bases Disaster Relief Security Threats

28 Where we usually think about

29 But we also should consider

30 3.7M people within 1m of high tide UNCLASSIFIED Benjamin H Strauss et al 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7

31 Additional impacts

32 What about the Netherlands?

33 Four Climate Impacts on a Military Capacity Readiness New Missions Arctic Impacts to Bases Disaster Relief Security Threats

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35 Four Climate Impacts on a Military Capacity Readiness New Missions Arctic Impacts to Bases Disaster Relief Security Threats

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37 Drought, Flood Impact Food Prices

38 A good (but sobering) read UNCLASSIFIED

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40 So What to Do?

41 Further Reading UNCLASSIFIED The risks to national security are accelerating. Climate Change is a Catalyst for Conflict We can no longer assume that the extremes of tomorrow will resemble the extremes of yesterday.

42 We Can t do this Ourselves INTERAGENCY NATIONAL DOD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL Engaged nearly 450 individuals from over 125 organizations UNCLASSIFIED 45

43 Pilot project Norfolk Virginia

44 Improving Prediction Capability Earth System Prediction Capability Recapitalize aging suite of global atmospheric models Interagency collaboration TC Forecasts Sea Level Rise GHG Monitoring Revolutionary advancement National predictive architecture UNCLASSIFIED Extreme Weather, Floods, Droughts Initial Navy investments in today s budget Arctic National Security 47

45 An Adaptation Methodology Climate Change Projections Uncertainty Quantification Climate Change Observations Adaptive Management UNCLASSIFIED Risk Assessment Assessing & Managing Climate Security Risk 48 Impact Assessment

46 Surprises still to come

47 Good news

48 A caution flag from the past The decisions made in 1914 reflected political policies pursued for short-term gains and benefits, coupled with institutional hubris, and a failure to imagine and understand the UNCLASSIFIED

49 What can one person do? L. L. M. A.

50 60K Years of Variability Unstable Burroughs Stable Today Time UNCLASSIFIED (Really) Old History is a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells 55

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55 Thank You UNCLASSIFIED 61