Pay-TV services worldwide: trends and forecasts PAY-TV SERVICES WORLDWIDE: TRENDS AND FORECASTS

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1 RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT PAY-TV SERVICES WORLDWIDE: TRENDS AND FORECASTS MARTIN SCOTT and ROMAN ORVISKY Analysys Mason Limited 2018

2 About this report This report provides: forecasts for the number of pay-tv households, services, spend and average spend per user (ASPU) forecasts split by pay-tv platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and OTT video delivered to the TV set forecasts for eight regions an overview of the trends and drivers in the market. Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led research programmes and our consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at Geographical Regions modelled: Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging Asia Pacific Developed Asia Pacific North America Latin America REPORT COVERAGE Key performance indicators Total pay-tv services Connections as a percentage of households Spend ASPU All of the above split by the following access technologies: Cable (analogue and digital) IPTV Pay DTT Satellite (DTH) Over-the-top (OTT) video to the TV 1 1 A limited set of KPIs is available in this report for OTT video services to the TV. Additional KPIs are available in the report OTT video worldwide: trends and forecasts Analysys Mason Limited

3 Contents [1] 8. Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison 9. Worldwide: pay-tv penetration will grow to 57% of households; the emerging Asia Pacific region will be responsible for most of this growth 10. Worldwide: retail revenue from pay TV and OTT video to the TV will grow by USD50 billion from 2017 to 2022, but 85% of growth will be from OTT 11. Worldwide: cable growth has peaked; satellite will grow a little, but IPTV will make the greatest gains between 2017 and Worldwide: worldwide pay-tv penetration will grow in all regions except North America, where cord-cutting will be the most significant 13. Regional forecasts 14. Western Europe: IPTV will drive revenue growth, but top-level ASPU will remain quite stable in the region 15. Western Europe: IPTV will grow as the rest of the market contracts 16. Western Europe: Sky s OTT launch will trigger a significant shift to OTT-tothe-TV viewing in three of the region s biggest markets 17. Central and Eastern Europe: traditional pay-tv spend will grow, but OTT video spend will dramatically outpace that of IPTV 18. Central and Eastern Europe: IPTV will continue to bring new customers to pay TV 19. Central and Eastern Europe: affordability and availability of illegal services will limit the demand for OTT video 20. Middle East and North Africa: revenue growth will be strong in both traditional and OTT-to-the-TV segments 21. Middle East and North Africa: strong growth in IPTV will challenge the longestablished dominance of regional satellite broadcasters 22. Middle East and North Africa: the popularity of illegal streaming will be a barrier to OTT adoption 23. Sub-Saharan Africa: satellite will dominate the growing pay-tv market 24. Sub-Saharan Africa: the overwhelming majority of the pay-tv market will be split between satellite and pay-dtt platforms 25. Sub-Saharan Africa: affordability and infrastructure issues will prevent OTT to the TV from becoming a mass market proposition 26. Emerging Asia Pacific: IPTV will thrive, but the greatest winner in terms of spend and subscriber growth will be OTT to the TV set 27. Emerging Asia Pacific: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable 28. Emerging Asia Pacific: OTT growth will be strong, but not at the expense of traditional pay TV in most markets in the short-to-medium term 29. Developed Asia Pacific: revenue growth will be low as markets are saturated and OTT competition is growing 30. Developed Asia Pacific: the popularity of free-to-air broadcasting will limit the future growth of pay TV 31. North America: cord-cutting will continue, but premium users who retain their services will prevent a substantial ASPU decline 32. North America: cord-cutting will continue, but premium users who retain their services will prevent a substantial ASPU decline 33. North America: cable operators will drive migration to managed IP delivery 34. North America: OTT services will continue to grow in popularity as more producers launch their own alternatives Analysys Mason Limited

4 Contents [2] 35. Latin America: pay-tv markets will grow further, as cable continues to be the leading technology 36. Latin America: demand for local and premium content will limit the decline of a relatively high ASPU 37. Latin America: the number of OTT-to-the-TV users will more than double during the forecast period 38. Forecast methodology and assumptions 39. Our spend forecasts focus on linear and on-demand content to the TV 40. Our definition of OTT-video-to-the-TV services 41. About the authors and Analysys Mason 42. About the authors 43. About Analysys Mason 44. Research from Analysys Mason 45. Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited

5 List of figures [1] Figure 1: IPTV share of traditional pay-tv connections and the number of OTT-tothe-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, Figure 2: Traditional pay-tv and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, worldwide, Figure 3: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, worldwide, Figure 4: The number of pay-tv connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, worldwide, Figure 6a: The number of traditional pay-tv connections as a percentage of the number of households, by region, Figure 6b: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, by region, Figure 7: Traditional pay-tv and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, Western Europe, Figure 8: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, Western Europe, Figure 9: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, Figure 10: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, Figure 11a: The number of traditional pay-tv connections as a percentage of the number of households, Western European countries, Figure 11b: The number of traditional pay-tv connections as a percentage of the number of households, Western European countries, Figure 12: Traditional pay-tv and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, Figure 13: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, Figure 14: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, Figure 15: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Central and Eastern Europe, Figure 16: The number of traditional pay-tv connections as a percentage of the number of households, Central and Eastern Europe, Figure 17: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Central and Eastern Europe, Figure 18: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the- TV-set services, Middle East and North Africa, Figure 19: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, Figure 20: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Middle East and North Africa, Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Middle East and North Africa, Figure 22: The number of traditional pay-tv connections as a percentage of the number of households, Middle East and North Africa countries, Analysys Mason Limited

6 List of figures [2] Figure 23: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Figure 24: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the- TV-set services, Sub-Saharan Africa, Figure 25: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, Figure 26: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, Figure 28: The number of traditional pay-tv connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Sub-Saharan Africa, Figure 29: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the- TV-set services, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 30: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 31: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 33: The number of traditional pay-tv connections as a percentage of the number of households, emerging Asia Pacific countries, Figure 34: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, emerging Asia Pacific countries, Figure 35: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the- TV-set services, developed Asia Pacific, Figure 36: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia Pacific, Figure 37: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, developed Asia Pacific, Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, developed Asia Pacific, Figure 39: The number of traditional pay-tv connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, developed Asia Pacific, Figure 40: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the- TV-set services, North America, Figure 41: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, North America, Figure 42: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, North America, Figure 43: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, North America, Figure 44: The number of traditional pay-tv connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, North America, Analysys Mason Limited

7 List of figures [3] Figure 45: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the- TV-set services, Latin America, Figure 46: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, Figure 47: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Latin America, Figure 48: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Latin America, Figure 49: The number of traditional pay-tv connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Latin America, Figure 50: Scope of our pay-tv spend forecasts Figure 51: Definition of OTT video services to the TV Analysys Mason Limited

8 Worldwide: pay-tv penetration will grow to 57% of households; the emerging Asia Pacific region will be responsible for most of this growth Figure 1: IPTV share of traditional pay-tv connections and the number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, NORTH AME RICA WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE LATIN AME RICA EMERGING ASIA PACIFIC KEY: Metrics for 2022 IPTV share of traditional pay-tv connections MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPED ASIA PACIFIC OTT-to-the-TV-set as a percentage of households Source: Analysys Mason 1 For a full list of countries modelled as part of each region, please see the accompanying data annex. Analysys Mason Limited

9 CONTENTS REGIONAL TRENDS FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited

10 About the authors Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) co-ordinates Analysys Mason s research initiatives related to media, TV, fixed broadband and convergence. He manages the Video Strategies and Fixed Broadband Services research programmes. Martin has held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 13 years, including heading the company's Consumer Services, Data and Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer Survey and Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His areas of specialisation include telco TV strategy, OTT video and media, consumer smartphone usage, the bundling and pricing of multi-play services, including quadruple-play bundling, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. He also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis of primary research. Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor s degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.. Analysys Mason Limited

11 Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Analysys Mason s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters, and service and content providers. Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities that new technology brings. RESEARCH Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. Analysys Mason Limited

12 Research from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited

13 Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited

14 PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN MARCH 2018 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Registered in England No Analysys Mason Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2018

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