1/29/2009. Disparity arises at every decision point in the system. Pamela Oliver Department of Sociology University of Wisconsin - Madison

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Pamela Oliver Department of Sociology University of Wisconsin - Madison African Americans have higher rates of arrest and

That fact does not tell you whether the problem is that lack people are committing more crimes, or that lack people are

More specific information helps you to focus in on where and how the problem is occurring The evidence suggests that there is

at every decision point in the system Social Inequality & Discrimination Social Conditions Offender Decisions Criminal Acts

Decisions Sentences Revocation Decisions Probation Correctional Release Decisions + Sentence Constraints Incarceration

00,000 of the appropriate population Example: In 999 Wisconsin new prison sentences 0 s imprisoned, population of Wisconsin

, lacks imprisoned, lack population of Wisconsin was 8,08. 808 =.00.

1 Pamela Oliver Department of Sociology University of Wisconsin - Madison African Americans have higher rates of arrest and imprisonment, that is a fact. That fact does not tell you whether the problem is that lack people are committing more crimes, or that lack people are treated unfairly in the system. More specific information helps you to focus in on where and how the problem is occurring The evidence suggests that there is OT a problem with lack people committing more crime AD a problem with differential treatment in the system Disparity arises at every decision point in the system Social Inequality & Discrimination Social Conditions Offender Decisions Criminal Acts Enforcement Decisions Arrests, Citations, PP holds Prosecution Decisions Charges & Pre-Trial (earing) Detention Judicial Decisions Sentences Revocation Decisions Probation Correctional Release Decisions + Sentence Constraints Incarceration Revocation Decisions Post-prison supervision (parole, MR, ES) Imprisonment and arrest rates are expressed as the rate per 00,000 of the appropriate population Example: In 999 Wisconsin new prison sentences 0 s imprisoned, population of Wisconsin was,0,. 0 0 =.000. Multiply.000 by 00,000 =, the imprisonment rate per 00, population., lacks imprisoned, lack population of Wisconsin was 8, =.00. Multiply by 00,000 = Calculate Disparity Ratios by dividing rates: / = 0. the lack/ ratio in new prison sentence rates sparity /W Dis Murder/Mansl Opium/Cocaine Sales Motor Vehicle Marijuana Sales Oth Sales Opium/Cocaine Poss. Assault Prostitution Rape/Sex Vandalism Off Poss. Marijuana Poss. Family Offenses Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing Weapons Arson DUI Dane Adult Arrests Public Order (Exc. Traffic) lack rate

2 .. W ratio umber Versus Disparity In Prosecutions 0. /W umber lacks is most disparate but violent, bail jumping, disorder are most cases CT PA VT I IA KS MO D SD WI DE FL KY OK TX AZ CA CO ID MT V OR UT WA lack In Prison or Jail in 00 CT ME J Y RI. IL I MI M MO E O AL AR DE DC FL GA LA MD MS C SC T VA WV AK I WA r=. CT J Y PA RI VT IL IA M E D SD WI DC MT UT 0 0 Disparity In Prison or Jail in 00 ME. I KS MI MO E O AL AR DE FL GA KY LA MD MS C OK SC T TX WV VA AK AZ CA CO I ID MT V OR WA 0 lack/w lack r=. CT J Y PA RI VT IL IA M E D SD WI DC MT UT 0 0 Disparity In Prison or Jail in 00 ME. I KS MI MO E O AL AR DE FL GA KY LA MD MS C OK SC T TX VA WV AK AZ CA CO I ID MT V OR WA 0 lack/w r= -. Underlying Crime + Enforcement

3 Dane County averages (Exc. Traffic) Public Order DUI Family Offenses Drug Poss. Marijuana Poss. Opium/Cocaine Poss. Drug Sales Marijuana Sales Opium/Cocaine Sales Prostitution Weapons Vandalism Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing Arson Motor Vehicle Assault Rape/Sex Off Murder/Mansl ative lack Asian Minority/ Disparity in Adult Arrests Murder/Mansl Rape/Sex Off Assault Motor Vehicle Arson Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing Vandalism Weapons Opium/Cocaine Prostitution Marijuana Sales Sales Oth Sales Opium/Cocaine Poss. Marijuana Poss. Poss. Family Offenses DUI Public Order (Exc. Traffic) ispanics Counted as in Arrest Statistics Are available in a separate presentation, were distributed earlier equal blackdisp nativedisp asiandisp Dane County (average) Most lack/ disparities are statistically significant Differences in crime These cannot be ignored. Underlying factors include inequality, school failure, family troubles. Differences in surveillance Policing is not random: crimes in some places are much more likely to get caught Differences in police responses Jurisdictional differences (e.g. ticket vs. arrest) Warn & release vs. arrest Discretionary charging decisions. E.g. assault vs. disorderly conduct. Escalating interactions resisting arrest, assaulting an officer, etc. Prosecutions, Convictions & Prison Sentences

4 lack disparity * if significant Murder A Forcible rape.0.0. A A Aggravated Assault A..9.9 A Larceny/theft * Motor vehicle theft * assaults * Arson Forgery and counterfeiting Fraud * Stolen property, buying, receiving Vandalism * Weapons * Prostitution * sex offenses * Drug offenses * Offenses against family and children * Driving under the influence of subst * Liquor offenses ly conduct * Remaining * Arrest count from UCR, Prosecution count from CCAP; *=p<.0, A= more prosecutions than arrests s lacks Disparity * if significant Murder Forcible rape Aggravated Assault * Larceny/theft * Motor vehicle theft assaults * Arson.00 Forgery and counterfeiting Fraud Stolen: property, buting, receiving Vandalism Weapons Prostitution sex offenses Drug offenses * Offenses against family and children Driving under the influence of subst Liquor offenses.00 ly conduct * Violate court order : traffic offenses Remaining Total * * = p<.0 s lacks Disparity * if significant Murder Forcible rape Aggravated Assault * * Larceny/theft * Motor vehicle theft assaults * Arson 0.00 Forgery and counterfeiting Fraud Stolen: property, buting, receiving Vandalism * Weapons * Prostitution sex offenses Drug offenses * Offenses against family and children Driving under the influence of subst Liquor offenses 0.00 ly conduct * Violate court order : traffic offenses Remaining * * = p<.0 Cases race o Felony Any Felony lack Asian ative ispanic Unk umber,0,9 People with at least one case o felony Any Felony lack Asian ative ispanic Unk Total,,8 # Cases lack Asian ative ispanic Unk o felony Felony umber Cases 90 9 Trial Guilty Plea 9 o Plea, o Trial 90

5 Only cases went to trial in 00 lacks ( felony, non-felony) s ( felony, non-felony) Of the 9 charges that go to trial % of 0 felonies are not guilty % of misdemeanors are not guilty Of the cases that go to trial % of the felony cases are entirely not guilty 8% of the misdemeanor cases are entirely not guilty The proportion of cases of not guilty is slightly higher for lack felony cases and nonfelony cases. Only for s and lacks are there enough cases for a disparity analysis There are more unknown and blank races in the data than ispanics, and only a handful of Asians or ative people. Cases that t go to trial are dropped. d This is a study of plea bargaining and prosecutions. CCAP 00: Proportion in Custody by ighest Severity Class Charged CCAP 00: Proportion in Custody by ighest Severity Class Charged oportion...8 Pro 0. Oth Oth Rob* Oth Oth Oth FA- FG-Z M-OU Race difference is statistically significant. Offense type does not affect custody except for robbery. Two F robbery cases are omitted from the graph: one lack was in custody, one was not. lack Proportion lack lack lack lack lack FA- FG-Z M-OU Dane Jail Custody Race difference is statistically significant. Offense type does not affect custody except for robbery. Two F robbery cases are omitted from the graph: one lack was in custody, one was not. CCAP 00: o Guilty Plea by Severity Class, Custody, Race FA- one FG-Z M-OU FA- Custody FG-Z M-OU FA- Dane Jail FG-Z M-OU Statistically significant effects of custody type. offense severity, and interaction of race and custody status Proportion lack ) igher no guilty plea if not in custody ) Racial difference in being in jail but ultimately no guilty plea ) Racial difference in no guilty plea for misdemeanors not in custody CCAP 00: Any Prison Sentence by Severity Class of Charge, Custody, Race one Custody Dane Jail FA- FG-Z M-OU FA- FG-Z M-OU FA- FG-Z M-OU Proportion lack Offense severity and custody status are significant; race effect varies with offense, severity, custody

6 CCAP 00: Any Jail Sentence by Severity Class of Charge, Custody, Race one FA- FG-Z M-OU FA- Custody FG-Z M-OU Dane Jail FA- FG-Z M-OU Proportion Excludes those sentenced to prison lack ot in Custody In Custody lack lack Frequency of Cases 0,000,000,000,000 umber Cases Custody status difference is statistically significant. Race not significant except for lower offense severity for people not in custody. Frequency of Cases: ot In Custody Frequency of Cases: In Custody lack lack umber Cases umber Cases Police discretion decisions for lesser offenses Arrest vs. ticket, warning, letting it go Impact of deployment decisions on chances of getting caught Impact of differences between jurisdictions Charging decisions after arrest A good way of assessing the impact of prior record & other aggravating/mitigating circumstances on charging and sentencing (this is a do-able statistical problem, but requires better data and a lot of work)

7 er 00,000 Population Rate Pe Dane Male In_Prison Rate Per 00,000 Population W W W W W W AW AW W W A W W W W W W W A A A A A A A A A A A A A A lack ispanic ative Asian Ages 8- only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County rity/ Disparity Mino 0 Dane Male In_Prison Minority/ Disparity W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A lack ispanic ative Asian Ages 8- only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County er 00,000 Population Rate Pe 0 00 Dane Female In_Prison Rate Per 00,000 Population A W W W W W W W W W W W W AW WA WA WA W A A A A A A A A A A A A lack ispanic ative Asian Ages 8- only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County rity/ Disparity 0 0 Mino Dane Female In_Prison Minority/ Disparity W W W A W W AW AW AW AW W AW AW A A AW AW AW AW AW A A A lack ispanic ative Asian Ages 8- only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County Dane County ew_prison_sentences Rate Per 00,000 Population 0 A W A A W W W W AW AW AW W W W AW AW W W W W A A A A A A A A A lack ispanic ative Asian Ages 8- only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents

8 Dane County ew_prison_sentences Minority/ Disparity A AW WA AW AW AW A W AW A W W W W AW AW W W W W A A A A A A lack ispanic ative Asian Ages 8- only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents DaneCounty lackminority/ Disparity y Offense Group Drug Assaultive Rob/urg DUI Includes ew Sentences Only DaneCounty lackrate Per 00,000 Population y Offense Group Drug Assaultive Rob/urg DUI Includes ew Sentences Only DaneCounty Rate Per 00,000 Population y Offense Group Drug Assaultive Rob/urg DUI Includes ew Sentences Only DaneCounty ispanicminority/ Disparity y Offense Group Drug Assaultive Rob/urg DUI Includes ew Sentences Only 8

9 DaneCounty ispanicrate Per 00,000 Population y Offense Group Drug Assaultive Rob/urg DUI Includes ew Sentences Only Given that you are on probation, what are you chances of revocation? Over 90% of revocations involve no new sentence, but this is difficult to count anyway y Looking only at felonies, there is a disparity in probation revocation n revoked... Proportion 0.0. Proportion of first-time probation felony cases revoked lack ative Asian ispanic ot adjusted for time at risk of revocation Dane County Cases in Community Supervision evoked probability re 0. Probability of first-time felony probationer being revoked lack ative Asian ispanic Dane County episodes beginning Once you are sentenced to prison or revoked into prison, you get in the revolving door of post-prison revocations Parole, mandatory release, extended supervision apply to different people but are roughly comparable in their revocation rates, are grouped together here 9

10 Rate of Prison Admission for Revocation.. evoked probability re 0. Probability of revocation post-prison lack ative Asian ispanic Dane County episodes, felonies only rate white black native asian hispanic Dane County Disparity in Prison Admission for Revocation 0 0 disp white black native asian hispanic Dane County lack/ Disparity in Corrections/Arrest Ratio (Dane ). Murder/Mansl. Rape/Sex Off.. Assault.. 8. Motor Vehicle 0. Arson. Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing. Vandalism. Weapons. Prostitution. Opium/Cocaine Sales. Marijuana Sales. Oth Sales. Opium/Cocaine Poss.. Marijuana Poss. 8. Poss.. Family Offenses. DUI. Public Order. (Exc. Traffic) 0 lack bar is a ratio of one to use as a benchmark Comparison of corrections episodes to arrests ew corrections episodes beginning within months of offense date in DOC record lack/ Disparity in Prison/Arrest Ratio (Dane ). Murder/Mansl. Rape/Sex Off.. Assault.. 8. Motor Vehicle 0. Arson. Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing. Vandalism. Weapons. Prostitution. Opium/Cocaine Sales. Marijuana Sales. Oth Sales. Opium/Cocaine Poss.. Marijuana Poss. 8. Poss.. Family Offenses. DUI. Public Order. (Exc. Traffic) 0 8 lack bar is a ratio of one to use as a benchmark Comparison of prison episodes to arrests ew prison episodes beginning within months of offense date in DOC record 0

11 .. Allocation of Total lack- Difference in Corrections Probation + Prison % %... Allocation of Total lack - Difference in Prison Sentences % % 0% 0. Arrests Convict 0. Dane County Arrest Convict Sentence Dane County Proportion off lack - Difference in Rate of Correctional Supervision. Murder/Mansl. Rape/Sex Off.. Assault.. 8. Motor Vehicle 0. Arson. Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing. Vandalism. Weapons. Prostitution. Opium/Cocaine Sales. Marijuana Sales. Oth Sales. Opium/Cocaine Poss.. Marijuana Poss. 8. Poss.. Family Offenses. DUI. Public Order. (Exc. Traffic) Proportion off lack - Difference in Rate of Entering Prison. Murder/Mansl. Rape/Sex Off.. Assault.. 8. Motor Vehicle 0. Arson. Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing. Vandalism. Weapons. Prostitution. Opium/Cocaine Sales. Marijuana Sales. Oth Sales. Opium/Cocaine Poss.. Marijuana Poss. 8. Poss.. Family Offenses. DUI. Public Order. (Exc. Traffic) Arrest Convict Arrest Convict Sentence egative values indicate s have higher rates than lack ars represent proportion of total difference between lack and rates egative values indicate s have higher rates than lack ars represent proportion of total difference between lack and rates

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