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2 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & 116 D :[ 0 ^ C]I: : C: #/ F 0: `>)a: X V)_ M ;)FW -* N 2 -* OL -I: >:J N-)W _ C]I: K / #/.[)F d2 HC: * -: df/ cl 5 Nb K / #/ )X L. 2 0-* (RTAs) 1 C]I: : C: ^ e 5 -I: `>)a: U. 2 +O: L -- _ b C]I: #/?X +J.-II/ : C: + +)F Y-_ 0 -* G fg YL@.-* )* L M A -: C]I: M A2?X NV)_ -* G ii: 5 N (FDI) 2 h5 [C)F: gw:2 3 G-_ C -* -- >C: W: df/ YL@ U_ 0LM N)_ F jl N-I3 W 1W.( N1390 NO _e) 2 0/ [ : C: W+ +)F K > / kj C]I: V)_ 2 +.-: # 22 - V)_ 1@l: V)_ + F C: N5 C]I: G.: [X C]I: 0- L jl d: O* B [OE C]I: A2 d2i: )F 0+ *: B N: +.(77 m N1389 N*)-:: 2?nC)2 / 1370?2 -) NO -A): I: F #/ )I: ;M NB >9 j@ j@3 : N?nC)2 -A.(63 m N1388 NO3) 2 M-O I- -I3. 2 )* M-O F I- 0M #/ + + B : o 2 0-* +LM UC): 22 ii: Ii_ [ ): #/ + Nq)#: dg:. >9 f>]: -X Ip #/.(120 m N1391 N]J)-0-: _ [ MF 1.Regional Trade Agreement 2.Foreign Direct Investment

3 117...#K =;IJ 7E E,+ 1 G A2 N G :2 +)2^ U_ Y. YW O - 0r C]I: V)_ G >9 K* d@_ C]I: #/ -@ `>)a: ja 0C@ GO: 2 )F*. 2 F #/ ): ]J +)W F +* - 0-* i_ 0 : 9 s 5I*.* Y-_ G A2.-I/K/ G9A2 I: #/ L: 0-IL: -: #/ W-V)_ O A2? - d2i: 22 +I QP: s f33 : : N:-C: +. 0r C]I: 0C@ t TCE ; uv2.*: N@: O: t 45* : ja 0M.*: 0-* 2E: #/ + + 0C@ ) 5 )22 9 ) N-Ii )* + Y ?2 A@]: D P N OFF w]: )F G9 /W E s (1950) I / V)_ +@ #/ )_ / *./ E - G : 5 M A N-II/:,gX M-O./ 5 A NT 2 d2 N-II/: x1x *: M #/ /./ -I: / 5 MF G.VE: #/.*: #/ I/ 3 o*:,ei: G?X + / * - :.-II/: N-II/ -@ -@ / #/ 2 + )*gw / -II/: -5 M-O./ #/ za E TyI: / + I +* Y^.-/: N- -:/ Viner, ) -II/ d2 0 5 kj G -I: G 2 )W _ 0 A@]: -C : 9A: V)_ F B2 I s.( World Trade Organization

4 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & 1 I: s * «Ay /*» s NI s UC:. 2.*: `A b >9 +)/ #/ -I3 :. G [X (Summers, 1991) :2 (Wonnacott & Lutz, 1989) L@ G/ -I: V)_ 2 e -I)F Ay /* / U@ + E G / -I)F + -C)A: (Krugman, 1991) +W/ NM 2. 2 G,E j G L b -I: >F: N 2 )2 F I: G 3W 2.-: j/ UC UX IL b >9,gX _ -)2 M-O A2 0)FW CyI: +I3 F + M E : Ns q- F G,E -^: / 2 -C)A:. 2 )W _ ( Bhagwati, 1996 ) W > V)_ s )F G9 C]I: G QP: N)1W j^ V)_ j/ if / : U:J +)W s / G + ^ e -W: Y1: W.-)Ms N*: G i: 4 3 Y1: wn]9 +.-I/: w]: 0-2 q> 0- q>. 2 KL F N 0-* w]: I B2 / G G,E j/ )2 22 J C]I: G NU>@+ G ): }]2 UO* G +. 2 kj : -E: i:,gx + H2. 2 G + > E G / - 1>)a: #/ : C:?#: ja./ 0W /./ Yn_ - G [X )_ A }.-* 4a#: V)_ Gk)C: I kj.-*. : W-II/UO / -: jl kj + G -I: 0C@ G9 #/ / 2 L: W+ +A.-I* )* M-O G 0-II/+A U:J /: ;+ )#. -A): ; #/ Natural Trading Partners 2. Preferential Trade Agreements :PTAs 3. Stumbling Blocks 4. Building Blocks

5 119...#K =;IJ 7E E,+ I^ B -)M O MI 22 W~ -) #/ :0W 2 : ; J:.-I)F d2i: N- N 02 ; -`@ 1 NHIF/ 45* > #: : 01)2 ; -f./ -I)2 N?-: 01)2 ; -h Cos S$* -R / -: jl : #/ + G [X / -I)F -C)A: V)_ )# #/ G )52 #/ K G9 )52 IA.-*. + W-II/UO. G B _ / U@. W-II/UO :.-* #: M 22 U F: Nb OL N >]: # -I: M U:J O>. F #/ + GA@]:.(Baldwin,1997)-I)F el: B A2 M : 2E: / *: 01)2 1>)a: ; #/ + (G G9) G G-* HIF/A:. 2 O j #/ G i #/ G9 + HIF/ :-* `A UO* ( Roy Allen, 1970 ) +@ B2 +@ ij = e. m [ e ][ m ] i i j j Cos ij = E E ik 2 ik.. M k jk M 2 jk k = 1, 2,3, K, n 1, n = M jk k./ j#/ G k./ i #/ G9 = E ik 0W 0-II/ #/ N0-II/9 #/ t: d k j Ni ] +. 0-II/ Y W. 2 j #/ i #/ k./ X ijk. 2./ #/ G9 U/ / 2 E ij = X N[M s [ i #/ k./ i j ijk N[M s j #/ k./ W-II/9 Y W 2 i 1. Cosine Index

6 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% &. 2 k./ j #/ G U/ M / 2 M ij = X ijk / E ik : ( k = 1, 2, 3, K, n 1, n ) : 2./ [>_ n / N#/ G9./ [>_ n j #/ G L m j d +.*: 0 # e i,x. 2 M ik : ( k = 1, 2,3, K, n 1, n )./ FC: [ + : -A n./ k +A * (,- Y ) i #/ G9./ d/ / -: # K3/ / -: # cl 2 ( : Y ) j #/ G./ d/.(-- Ç] >_ IA) 2 #:Å j #/ G )52 i #/ G9 )52. (Lineman,,1988, p. 445)*: W0- HIF/dFX + + WL N-* FO j #/ G i #/ G9./ d/ W 0-*?: * ÉC_ 0-II/ 0-II/9 #/./ M@ IA N-: # U:/ UO i G / 2 +* N-* 19 M jk E jk Nk Y W. 2 [ 2 Cos ij = o d + -I)F J [ m j e i F +O: j s) : UC): #: G-* I HIF/ A:.- UO L3 A_ 4a# 0 -: Yj 0-II/ #/ Yi 0-II/9 #/ Y>A: /@X N-I* [ #: Én:/ #/ G 2 +O: M GJ.-W.-I* 0/ G M-O ÉA_ F i j 120 #K ;IJ 7E -O :./ H2+.* #/ G )52 U/ - -) ;+ HS -/ H2 KO1 A #/./ G./ 4a#: 9 ( )./ B #/ G9 >/ UC: uv2 N-W: s SITC ) A./ G t: O / -: )2./.-II/: 4a#: U_-X / i. 2 ( )./ B #/ G9 t: M ( 30@ 20 *: 2E: )# (-/ UC: ) ]2.(Arnon, Sprick & Weinblatt,) *+A -C: U_-X -9

7 121...#K =;IJ 7E E,+!!7 A* KE WX! -V -2 Ñ3 1965?2 0-* O* F 2E: 2. K > N-* 01)2 1>)a: jr^ A: +.(Balassa, 1965) G#) (UNIDO, 1986) -E): U>: )AI9 A2 :2 (World Bank,1994) / (Crafts and Thomas, 1986)H: / (Aquino, 1981) I/ > / W/.(ITC UNCTAD/WTO,1995) 2 U>@+ G VVa A: IJ. 2 TCE -I 0-:j^ GO: -E: e{ E F 45* G 0-E: V)_ B2 0-* 45* gw M / 2?O* 4C 2. 45* / - :./ 0-* O* F.-M >9 45* + WO +CCE: 0-* J : 2 w* + 2. B2 0-* j #/ 9 RCA ij = X X ij j / X / X iw w G9 i./ 0W j #/ G9 [2-9 M F/ G9 45* + I:. 2 G9 U/ j #/ U/ G9 [2-9 M F/ ha: >9 45* + pi3.w: _ 19 + C: / 2 W )*- 4Va i./ G9 j #/ / 2 /X * i_ K 19 j #/ / -: # K >9 45* + +)W _.- F #/ /X - A F i./ G9 Nd +-.-: #./G9 (4Va 2 ) W4Va 2 F N*: 2 + G O: / #/ -I3./ O* F #/ / #:./ -A 3.* 2E: 0-* O* 2E: )@. -5 )# #/ + G O: N-* )/ - K )# 0-* -A : -1: GJny `>)a:./ G9 #/ 0-* O* F./ -9 #/ N#/ F G.VE: QI.-: # 0

8 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & 122 &*, WX! - F -X / / A: V5* (Drysdale,1967)?-F : 2 G9?-F 45* >/ ].-: # #/ h : n k t t k X iw M ww M M iw jw C ij =.. = t k k t k 1 X iw M ww M iw M jw k ; = X iw Nj i #/ + G O: 45* =C ij : 2 w* ] L t t = M ww N i #/ G9 U/ ; = X iw N i #/ k./ G9 t t U/ ; = M N i #/ G U/ ; = M iw jw N G U/ ; k k G ; = M iw k./ G ; = M ww N j #/ G 4Va M J UO: 45* / 2 -C)A:?-F. i #/ k./ U:J 0-I # NG9 G M@ O t* N 2 #/ +. G _ W: 0-45* + d +-.-* -@ M@ # 0-I# NK )WL C: 0 19 )WL 0 45*. 2 #/ h + Nj#/ G i #/ 9./ G AÖP (UNCTAD, 2010) -ÖE): UÖ>: G A2 u1i/.2 ;LW I GÖ9 N h : 2 0 w* + #/ G >/ GÖ9 [Ö2 0 +Ö.-Ö: UO# G9-9 0,097 B2): Ö>: 2,3 0.h GÖ9 ;. jl -9 0, ,037 GÖ9 -Ö* ÜÖ.(-Ö9 54,1.2 -* Ü) -2. >: 47,7.?Ö2 0?Öy.Ö2 -Ö* ÜÖ +)# 2 )* #L - )2^ 0 #Ö jlö -Ö9124 UÖ_?Ö2 F?2 G9 -* Ü / ,12.Ö2 -Ö* ÜÖ 2001?2. >: 23,9 G9 ;.-:

9 123...#K =;IJ 7E E,+ -Ö* ÜÖ. Ö jl 2008?2. >: 108, ? á: )2^ 0?y G9 Ö /-Ö/ Ö/ -: #./ L/ F 2 Ö LÖ.Ö/20 8 N 4 LÖ/ FÖ.-Ö: UO# G9 U/ I Ö/ -Ö: #./ L/ F ,9 87,3 N 81,8 d N 4 LÖ/ F.-: UO# G9 U/ -9 78,8 I / -/ Ö G ;. Ö2 -Ö9 86,4 83,7 N 81,9 dö Ö LÖ.Ö/ ,2 Ö 0?Öy -Ö9 25,88.Ö2 -* Ü 2001?2. >: 1,4 Öá: )Ö2^ N0?Öy G -Ö* Ü. 2 ) jl 2008?2. >: -Ö* ÜÖ Ö/ Ö2 2003?Ö2 Ö tö: 0 +Ö.2 -* Ü +)# 2 0 Ö G ;.-: # jl -9 57,6 U_?2 F?2 G Ö>: 67,3 Ö 0?Öy -9 20,56.2 -* Ü 2001?2. >: 18,2 0Ö Öá: )Ö2^ 0?Öy Ö G -* Ü. 2 ) jl 2008?2. G -Ö* ÜÖ / ?2 t: * Ü +)# 2.-: # jl -9 33,1 U_?2 F? Ö/ -Ö/ / -: #.h./ L/ F 2.Ö/ 20 8 N 4 LÖ/ F.-: UO# #/+ G U/ -9 7,8 I -Ö9 41 Ö.Ö/ [Ö>_ 20 +ÖI. Ö2 -Ö9 41,27 27,9 N 20,5 d L Ö Ö Ö./ L/ F 2 NW+.-: UO# #/ + G UO#Ö #Ö/ +Ö G UÖ/ -Ö9 5,7 ÖI Ö / -/ / -: # +ÖI ,3 13,3 N 9,7 d L./ 20 8 N 4 L/ F.-: Ö G O?X.-: UO# G U/ -9 21,3./ [>_ 20. Ö>: Ö. >: ,29 -* 0 + LÖ/ 45Ö* Ö/ #Ö #Ö/ Ö G9 G L/ F FC: G j G9

10 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & 124 (#,E[7 6 Z (, #K YA S$* WX! 0*?- : G G9 + HIF/ 45* HIF/ A: ?2 t: -C: +. 0?y. 2 0-* 2E: NG2E: + N 2 )*gw 0?y )2^ / G9 HIF/ 45* I:. 2 W-II/UO +)/ + 19 KL /- 2 0?y.h G G9 jl O: / 2 + W N45* 0M 45* + +^ [_ [: U@.*: `AP 45* + H2 2 -*O* 0 / 2 #/ 9 )52 Y5 1 B>F: W-II/UO./ =& (#,E[7 6 Z (, \E) #K S$* WX! - 2 &Z (#,E[7 6 Z (, 1 ]E S$*WX! & 5 ^) ,1052 0,1377 0,0768 0,0422 0,0133 0,0109 (#,E[7.V (#,E[7.V 1 (, ]E S$* WX! & 5 ^) 0,0647 0,6408 0,0059 0,0563 0, M G2E: U9X à) :g5: 0, *?- : G9 G + HIF/ 45* ?y G9 G + HIF/?y )2^ / ?2 t: -C: +.? * 2E: W-II/UO +)/ NG2E: + N 2 )*gw 0 G9 G HIF/ 45* I:. 2 (,

11 125...#K =;IJ 7E E,+ O: / 2 + W N45* + 19 KL /- 2 0?y - 45* + H2 G9 jl 0-I # QP: +.-* G9 2I: - )52 MI a q)* F #/ + / 2.- )/ W-II/UO *V)_ >A (, (#,E[7 6 Z K1 =Y!!7 A* KE.h HS _ 6 -/ dfx 9./ -A 3?- U>E N2E: ) _. 2 0-* ?2 Yn_./ -/ 580 Yn_ :*: / Yn_ M / -/ 2555./ 9./ FC: / 2./-/ 3794./ Yn_ 0./ -/ -A )# 9./ QI / 2 0-I # F 9./ -A /./ -/ 136 #/ + 9./ -/ 624 / -: #.h 2410 / -: # F 9./ -A. 2 9 F./ FC:. 2 9 F./ -/ / -/ / *: ) 0?y #/ + F 9./ 9 2 )# F F 9./ QI G9 A2 W4Va #aqi U9 - #/ + Ni_.-I :(#,E[7 6 Z (, ;, E K1 DA =Y K - 3 &Z./%./ -A 9./ -A w* M G2E: U9X à) :g5:.h

12 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & 126 D (#,E[7 6 Z (,!!7 A* KE K1 =Y : $EDA` (K D) N 2 F [ [ / 9./ -`@ 2 F I / 9./ -f. 2 F / 9./ -h (, (#,E[7 6 Z a)!!7 K1 A* ;, K1 =Y - 4 &Z 6 Z A* ;, (,? 6 Z A* ;, (#,E[7 Y b! Y 6,2 9,18 0 Nd ,67 73,94 0 N0: ,49 20,5 L +Å ,41 25,85 5? ,12 3,34 G /5 L 2 0: ,11 17,79 GL2 0: K f ,28 9,24-12 UW ,49 2,78 1 _ ,28 17,58 -I?O* 0-: 2- N M G2E: U9X à) :g5: `,Y = c0k DE (#,E[7 6 Z K1 A* ;, - 5 &Z ,1 4,48 4,51 36,46 6,76 2,78 7,2 26, ,27 4,09 4,72 49,05 16,33 5,15 8,77 40, ,17 5,41 6,12 44,91 5,15 2,49 9,39 51, ,63 7,04 6,71 29,55 4,4 2,58 7,03 24, ,93 3,31 1,32 48,24 3,17 2,53 3,61 13, ,75 1,5 1,6 12,67 1,51 1,29 3,73 3,12 Y b! 0/ 2 0 I: d2 0/ 2 0 NMW 0 N@@ YW>/ 3 )/ )F I^... I^ )I@ M f* ]C U9X ÇJ I^ -:?5 Y

13 127...#K =;IJ 7E E, Y b! Y 6,05 8,1 5,93 6,16 5,63 3 )I ,4 6,97 4,48 1,16 3,76 3,85 0-# u>o 1 K/ ,73 4,39 6,12 7,88 5,24 4,21 (+>^^ -F/) F/ U): ,75 7,76 7,14 6,78 5,92 5,04 G.VE: 2 1@2>^ N1@2>^ ,59 18,46 15,57 12,97 6,43 1,72 -I?O*, ^ 3^ ,39 3,75 2,24 1,29 3,12 1, I)F `/? ,23 29,11 1,48 21,65 12, U i]c: U^ ,53 8,5 6,08 7,72 8,54 6,63 YI:@ ä@ ,44 13,49 32,72 9,51 4,96 5,76 M ,07 4,44 1,29 1,12 1,19 1,19 GJ1): GA]_ ãl M G2E: U9X à) :g5: ,56 518,1 19,42 3,75 66,37 5,7 22,93 4,37 5,84 8,36 3,52 22,4 25,12 47,51 21,3 28,1 15,08 5,08 10,99 26,92 7,52 10,53 4, HS 9 6 = c0k DE (, K1 A* ;, - 6 &Z ,48 771,21 39,43 3,19 106,85 11,25 2,65 5,65 13,39 11,96 5,18 43,63 38,5 50,6 32,73 72,51 21,88 4,86 27,63 42,6 11,68 19,59 9, ,04 398,54 21,36 5,15 44,87 2,86 19,4 6,48 2,37 10,17 1,44 21,08 19,15 49,34 15,71 7,16 16,69 4,79 8,08 13,85 5,13 17,05 4, ,96 484,27 8,35 4,96 45,85 3,3 74,01 4,47 3,29 2 2,61 10,53 16,33 44,99 13,59 11,38 10,03 5,84 4,07 24,88 3,78 3,86 1, ,59 623,51 15,36 5,23 61,17 6,07 4,4 1,67 1,73 2,33 5,11 13,78 21,62 53,88 27,09 14,55 12,49 6,56 1,87 23,68 9,57 8,64 1, ,66 553,81 16,76 2,32 58,35 4,7 1,19 1,66 1,44 4,09 4,34 16,75 23,87 28,95 19,81 9,73 11,92 3,6 1,43 33,59 8,22 5,98 5,18 Y d b! 0/ K#5 0: 2 1J... I R9 N+ NR9 G.VE: #/... + åi2 :: åi * 0- BC... +åi2 ::åi2 )52OåI22+2/ åi2 0-# )1W -A: : 2 0-# 0# [ 0)FI/ +åi2 0)FI/ f2 åi2 0)FI/ åi2 i: ^^ i: +@ +Å -90,75 )/ +^ _ f - q: [F>/ GI/ +> LI + / N+ 0-* x>b GCE>: Y@ NåI>* N@@ Y

14 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & Y d b! Y 66,8 232,9 22,48 11,93 14,69 56,08 0-**-2 [#^ - 0 -I12W 2^ ,98 59,65 50,08 45,43 22,16 17,47 L Y ,64 5,11 6,05 1,04 3,31 2,96 GA]_ u: / M G2E: U9X à) :g5:./ :-: 2- à). -I)2 >/ K / -/ 9 BC N F.h [ / 9.h FC: F 9./ 0)FW NQI N0- d 0M -I3 #/ 9./ d/ F K3/ 0- M -I/: G9 A2 #/ `AP / W ) : i_.-i/: O* )F W NV)_ #/ G V)_ 0a 2 9.: GO: O: UC): V)_ O jae U:A K /. 2 F: A2 O* (#,E[7 6 Z (, ]E DAZ #K ;IJ 7E N/ +A:./ [ L: [ ) O ja + 9./ Yn_ :. 2 0-* 01)2 02 ; HS./ gw-/ åi Ys _ j* -/ H2 #/ 0-* 01)2 N(PC_TAS 2008) [)F2 U>E : K * ;^ GJny Ns : M@ 01)2 uv * +A 9./ -/ 2 Y. N 9 2E:. 2 2I* N II/9 N. 0 -/ mv5 / 0-II/ s : #/ / -*: fa) : N-/ + + uv2.-* 9 N./ -/ + H2 Y2.-* -/. 2 0-* 2E:

15 129...#K =;IJ 7E E,+./ QI,- )* * 2E: )# )/ I: 0-# 01)2-9 N#/ + 2E: ; O L ja +. 2 #/ + : I* V,- NuOJ A@]: 2 N./ }]2 W 1W I# d 7 0*? * 2E:. 2 #/ + : 2 0-* Y UX:.h./ Yn_ G9./ Yn_./ #/ G9 + q)#:./ Yn_ : 2- PC-TAS NHS _ j* -/ dfx 0# w@ 9 G9 N G9 + q)#:./ Yn_ NUO* G9 + -C: +)/.-: 2- G G9 UP1.-* +A G 9 0-# 01)2 N(5 >X:) +)/ )2 + NW +.-* 2E: L 0-# 01)2-9 +A N + / G1 + -* Y L 9 2E: UX:.-* G9 +LM #/ + G Y = DE 9) (#,E[7 6 Z (, \E) #K ;IJ - 7 &Z ( ` (#,E[7.V DE (, K1\*)% 01)2 % 9 UF)^.2G9.2B2): G9?2 5 G -A 9 : U_-X0?25./ )2 19, , , , ,

16 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & (, DE (#,E[7 6 Z K1 ;IJ ;IJ + 0) % K1 \*)%.2G9.2B2):?2 5 G9 5 G -A K1 DE : U_-X 0?2./ (, >_ ) , , , , , M G2E: U9X à) :g5: )# -: # 9 2 TCE.2 G9. >: 886 ; 0?y #/ I:. 2 0?2. >: 52 B2): G9 ) >: 266. >: 89 d 0?y N-9 10 I: / N 2. BC I: 2 0-* 01)2 9 2 NW * 01) ,7 9 +)# / 2 M 0 y. >: 273 ) TCE.2 G9. >: 1,2; I:. 2 / 2. >: 370. >: 123 d 0 y 2 0-* 01) I: 9 (, E (#,E[7 6 Z #K :$$\ K E 45* #/ h + G O: 2 d2i: 45* O h : / / A: V5* (1969)?-F. 2?-F + W-II/UO 45* + 01)2 A@]: +.-: # #/ ?2?y HS _j* -/ H2 G9 : 2 0-* Y UX: 2E:. 2 0-* 5 0 Q:

17 131...#K =;IJ 7E E,+ G y+ _ j* HS -/ dfx./) G9 s : #/ G + uv2.-* ha)2 PC-TAS 0# ( 2 0-II/ L 2 : #/ -I/: 9 / /)#: q)#:./ G [2 G9 U/ 9./ [2.-* _ I 9./+ q)#:./.-* 2E: G U/ s : #/./ + q)#:./ NG9 U/ [2 2E: 9 F NÇ UX: [FC.-* ha)2 NG U/ [2 2E: k k ( RMS i )./ #/+ F y+ ( RXS i )./ NIFX)-* 2E:?-F 45* N5 W2 UX: fk>9x 0M.-: 2-.h +?-F 45* 2E: à) 8?-.( N1386.h #/ : AP H2 G2E:. 2 0-* W-II/UO N0?y )@.-I)F 5 )/ # :45* + 22 U:J 2 d )* #/ -*.h :./ [2 s : #/ G F [2 )52 N0-* O* F. 2 0-II/+A G9 U/ s ` (#,E[7 6 Z (, ]E &*, WX!.8 &Z 0 U/ ?2 0,1605 0,1458 0,1726 0,1193 0,2204 0,2528?-F 45* 0-M G2E: U9X à) :g5: D#) R@ Q: 9 F./ (-9 17)./ 136 -A + / 2./ / W)FW NQI N0- / T>A (-9 83)./ / 9./ N L. 2 4,9 FC: F./ 2./ -/ 9 N-)* F q)#: G9 #/ +

18 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & 132./ -/ 644 N F FC: I / 9 F G9 A2 _ 0M -I3 QP: +. 2./ d/ M - : o-i/: K -- 2I: AP V)_ / 2 A_ + 0-I # N#/ / W ) : i_.-i/: O* W #/ + G V)_ 0a 2 9.: GO: O: UC): V)_ O jae U:A K /. 2 F: A2 O* 886 ; 0?y 9 +)# I: >: 52 )TCE.2 G9. >: / 2. >: 266 0?y ,7 BC I: 2 0-* 01)2 M 2 : ; 0 y 9 +)# / ?2. >: 273 ) TCE.2 G9. >: 1,2 : I: / 2. >: * 01) (9 )?- 01)2-4./ : / -0-* A: L./ NU/ L. 2 )M N 5 9 / /./?- j/?j I: IJ -I: N-: # HS _ j* -/ H2 [J?- 01)2 -W _ 2)2 A

19 133...#K =;IJ 7E E,+ : : / 9 / df/ -1: GJny 0-* 01)2 ) TCE G G9 L:. e{ G A2 / ie$ I -R DK E > = ]E /ZK #K AKK j7» N(1386) é-j: NIFX.1 # : NW jr^ GA@]: F2l: N«(, ZX #K /K =C% N«%D,/K (, #K ^E DK» N(1390) é-j: NIFX.2 #.21 :I#r^ NA= N B j@3 N(1389) +I@Y NO3.3 # NL ^ )F N4 0* NY?2 N N[I^?2 N NI C1_ #/ N(1391) N]J.4 # N)F N10 0* A2 F: / L N(1389) :n2.* +FX -E: f2 N*.5 # N)F: L ^ N70* NY2?2 N N -#K AKK ],Kk$ 5)9 8Fl, (! 6Z N(1382) +FX N/.6 #.19 0M# )/ :^ N(=BF =;1I) (, 5)9 E D$ #/ + C]I: G I2 O:.(1390)O -A2 N_e.7 # NL ^ N60 0* N15?2 N:+E D$=C% NL/: 2 C]I: * 8 -O 1.Allen, Roy. G. D (1970), Mathematical Economics, London.# 2. Arnon, Arie, Sprick and Weinblatt (1996) The Potential for Trade between Israel, the Palestinians and Jordan, the World Economy, Vol. 19, No. 7, pp # 3. Atai, Farhad (2006), The Ethic Issue in the Relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan, Regoinal Security Issues, No.2.pp:61-66.# 4. Balassa, B. (1977), Revealed Comparative Advantage Revisited, The Manchester School.# 5. Baldwin, R (1997), the Causes of Regionalism. The World Economy.Vol. 20, No.7, pp #

20 1391 ()*+,% 11! "#$% & Bhagwati, J. and Panagariya, Arvind, eds. the Economics of Preferential Trade agreements, Washington: American Enterprise INST Press,1996.# 7. Crafts, N. F. R. & Thomas, M (1986), Comparative Advantages in UK Manufacturing trade, The Economic Journal, Vol. 96, PP # 8. Drysdale, P. (1967), Australian Japanese Trade, Canberra, Australian National University. PhD. Thesis.# 9. ITC (International Trade Center) UNCTAD/WTO (1995), National Export Performance and International Demand, Research paper.# 10. Krugman, P.(1991), Increasing Returns and Economic Geography. The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 99, No. 3, pp # 11. Lineman, H, Measures of Export-import Similarity the Linter Hypothesis once Again.1988.# 12. Meade, J. (1955). The Theory of Customs Unions. Amsterdam, North- Holland.# 13. UNCTAD, Hand book of International Trade ( ), (accessed on 4/8/2012).# 14. Viner, J. (1950). The Customs Union Issue. New York. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.# 15. Wonnacott, R.I., and Mark Lutz Is there a Case for Free Trade Areas. In Jeffrey Schott, ed., Free Trade Areas and US Trade Policy. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.#

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