Kaufman Brothers 13 th Annual Investor Conference

Transcription

1 Kaufman Brothers 13 th Annual Investor Conference Craig DeYoung, VP Investor Relations New York, New York September 14, 21 / Slide 1

2 Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average selling price, gross margin and expenses. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to: economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors (the principal product of our customer base), including the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand for our customers products, competitive products and pricing, the impact of manufacturing efficiencies and capacity constraints, the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of new products, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights, the risk of intellectual property litigation, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment, changes in exchange rates and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML s Annual Report on Form 2-F and other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. / Slide 2

3 Agenda General update ASML Business/Market Overview Outlook summary / Slide 3

4 / Slide 4 General update

5 General update Short term: no change No customer has delayed shipment of any tool Meeting customer demand remains challenging Technology conversions continue in each sector Bit capacity grows while minimal wafer capacity added Medium term: the business may fluctuate Continued urgent demand for tools at ASML customers BUT: General Macroeconomic worries Cisco cautious and Intel reduces guidance due to PC demand weakness Rumored slowdown at Samsung, TSMC, etc ASML remains diligent in it s communication with customers in order to detect any changes in their short/medium term outlook / Slide 5

6 ASML business/market overview / Slide 6

7 Net sales Total net sales M ,768 3, ,53 2, , , , Guidance: 21 sales to grow 1-15% above historical peak of 3.8 billion Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Numbers have been rounded for readers convenience. / Slide 7

8 Backlog: Record value with 3% less units, ASP grows 6%+ vs prior peak backlog, not creating oversupply Backlog value Units ASP 14.6 ASPs ASP Units Jan 4 Jul 4 Jan 5 Jul 5 Jan 6 Jul 6 Jan 7 Jul 7 Jan 8 Jul 8 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Backlog value M Backlog in units 5 / Slide 8

9 Market overview Semiconductor unit growth back to historical trend, catch up capacity investments required in all sectors after a long period of slow capacity growth Share of new technology nodes in total semiconductor market accelerating as shrink continues to enable reduced chip cost and increased bit growth New technologies nodes require much more immersion layers and litho tool capacity than actual installed base allows / Slide 9

10 Node transitions consume growing numbers of immersion tools while adding little wafer capacity Immersion Exposures Immersion Exposures DRAM Year Node 8x,6x 6x,5x 5x,4x 4x,3X LOGIC Year Node 9x,6x 9x,6x 6x,4x 6x,4x Immersion Exposures Immersion Exposures NAND Year Node 5x,4x 4x,3x 4x,3x 3x,2x MPU Year Node 6x,4x 6x,4x 4x,3x 3x,2x Snapshot based on average customer product mix (3mm) and layer stacks / Slide 1

11 Technology transitions continue with capacity additions required in 211 to meet forecasted demand* DRAM NAND Wafer Starts [3 mm equiv. KWSM] x nm 3x nm 4x nm 5x nm 6x nm 8x nm 9x nm 8x nm 2 mm 9x nm 2 mm 1XX nm 2 mm Max. capacity Wafer Starts [3 mm equiv. KWSM] x nm 2x nm 3x nm 4x nm 5x nm 6x nm 7x nm 5x nm 2 mm 6x nm 2 mm 7x nm 2 mm Max. capacity Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Logic+DSP+MCU 2x nm 6x nm 3x nm 9x nm 4x nm 13 nm 5x nm x nm 3x nm 4x nm 6x nm 9x nm MPU 6 1 Wafer KWSM Wafer KWSM Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q *Litho demand in line with Gartner bit growth demand forecast for DRAM 52%, for NAND 76% in 211. Logic demand forecast is 17% unit growth in 211 / Slide 11 Source: ASML Simulation model (6/1)

12 DRAM prices further weakened in August Still good margins for all DRAM manufacturers MAIN DRAM SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (1/28-21YTD) DRAM 2.8 1Gb DDR2 8 MHz SPOT PRICE 1Gb DDR2 8 MHz CONTRACT PRICE 1Gb DDR3 166 MHz SPOT PRICE 2.4 1Gb DDR3 166 MHzCONTRACT PRICE Chip ASP [$US] mm cash-costs for 6x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1. & 1.2 USD 3 mm cash-costs for 5x nm 1 Gb DRAM between.8 &.9 USD 3 mm cash-costs for 7x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1.4 & 1.6 USD 1,6 US$ cash profit per DDR3 IC (>65% GM, if made at 5x nm) mm cash-costs for 4x nm 1 Gb DRAM between.65 &.75 USD Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Source: DRAMeXchange (31/8/21), ASML MCC / Slide 12

13 Technology Leadership - Reinforced Immersion Lithography: - Installed Base >16 Systems - leading performance on CD imaging uniformity well below 1 nm and overlay of less than 2 nm -More than 2 NXT installed and producing -38 NXT systems in backlog end Q2 1 NXT:195i EUV: - 6 systems shipping thru mid Taking orders for 212 NXE:31 Source: ASML / Slide 13

14 / Slide 14 Outlook summary

15 Outlook summary Short term: no change Memory customers continue strategic node shrinks and planned capacity addition to meet long term memory demand As Foundry sector competition heats up; customers shrink to support growing leading edge demand and add capacity for future MPU sector prepares for 22nm ramp consuming increasing quantities of leading edge tools Medium term: the business may fluctuate Short/Medium term supply/demand issues may present themselves in some sectors Long term: sound growth opportunity End demand drivers in mobile internet, smart phones, PC s, tablets, etc remain solid Continued ASP improvement in leading edge tools Long term modeling suggests revenue opportunities well beyond current target / Slide 15

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