Predicting the Next Wave of Semiconductor Growth

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1 Predicting the Next Wave of Semiconductor Growth Wally Rhines President and CEO Mentor, a Siemens Business January 16, 2018

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3 Electronic Equipment Revenue ($Billions) New Semiconductor Applications Drive Waves of Growth and New Company Leaders ~ $2.5 Trillion in 2018 $3,000 New Markets Spawn New Leaders $2,500 Internet of Things Era $2,000 $1,500 Notebook PC Era Embedded Systems Era Mobile Comms Era $1,000 $500 Mainframe Era Stand-alone PC Era Networked PC Era $0 Sources: Mentor Graphics Analysis and VLSI Research February 2015

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5 The Gompertz Curve y = a e be -ct y Benjamin Gompertz, 1825 Mathematical model for time series Growth percent is fastest at the start and slowest at the end Example Growth of tumors Population growth Mobile phone uptake Market impact in finance time

6 # of units/year Cumulative units Typical Product or Industry Life Cycle units/year t units/year o time time

7 Gompertz Curve Lifecycle Maturity with Lower unit growth rate Cumulative units Highest percent growth rate Constant unit growth rate Y =0 (~37% of final units) time Forecast

8 Gompertz Curve for Project Management Forecast completion Actual completion Cumulative lines of debugged code or Cumulative simulated transistors Y =0 time Forecast

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10 Units Shipped (Billions) $ Average Selling Price Solid-State Imager Cost and Unit Volume 6.0 Image Sensor Unit Shipments & ASP $ $ $15 $ $5 0.0 $0 Source: IC Insights OSD-2015

11 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) Gompertz Curve for Solid-State Image Sensors Image Sensor Units Forecast Source: IC Insights OSD-2015

12 Video Surveillance Surveillance cameras to increase around 46% (CAGR) Transparency Market Research, May

13 Myriad of New Applications for Solid-State Imagers

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15 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Desktop Shipments S-Curve Gompertz Forecast Desktop PCs Forecast Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

16 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Desktop Shipments S-Curve Gompertz Forecast Desktop PCs Forecast 2007 Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

17 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Desktop Shipments S-Curve Gompertz Forecast 2007 vs Desktop PCs Forecast 2016 Forecast 2007 Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

18 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Desktop Shipments S-Curve Gompertz Forecast Desktop PCs Forecast 1998 Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

19 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Desktop Shipments S-Curve Gompertz Forecast 1998 vs Desktop PCs Forecast 2016 Forecast 1998 Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

20 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Notebooks Gompertz Forecast Notebook PC Forecast Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

21 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Notebooks Gompertz Forecast Notebook PC Forecast 2001 Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

22 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) PC Notebooks Gompertz Forecast 2001 vs Notebook PC Forecast 2016 Forecast 2001 Sources: Semico Research, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics

23 Cellular Subscribers (Billions) Total Cell Phone Subscribers Gompertz Forecast Source: The Guardian Global Subscribers Forecast Source: International Telecommunications Union

24 Cellular Subscribers (Billions) Total Cell Phone Subscribers Gompertz Forecast Source: The Guardian Global Subscribers Forecast 1997 Source: International Telecommunications Union

25 Cellular Subscribers (Billions) Total Cell Phone Subscribers Gompertz Forecast 1997 vs Source: The Guardian Global Subscribers Forecast 2016 Forecast 1997 Source: International Telecommunications Union

26 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) Smartphones Smartphone Units Forecast Source: IC Insights Market Driver Report, 2016

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28 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) Smart Meters Smart Meters Forecast Sources: IC Insight, IC Market Drivers, 2015

29 Cumulative Unit Volume (Billions) IoT Wearables Wearables Forecast Sources: IC Insight, IC Market Drivers, 2016

30 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) IoT Fitness Trackers Fitness Trackers Forecast Sources: IC Insight, IC Market Drivers, 2016

31 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) IoT Medical Wearables Medical Wearables Forecast Sources: IC Insight, IC Market Drivers, 2016

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33 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) 3D Televisions D TVs Forecast Source: IC Insights Market Drivers, 2016

34 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) Automotive Night Vision Systems Night Vision Systems Forecast Source: Strategy Analytics, 2016

35 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) Automotive Drowsiness Monitor Systems Drowsiness Monitors Forecast Source: Strategy Analytics, 2016

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37 Cumulative Transistor Unit Volume Total Transistors 5.E+22 5.E+22 4.E+22 4.E+22 3.E+22 3.E+22 2.E+22 2.E+22 1.E+21 1.E+21 1.E+21 8.E+20 6.E+20 4.E+20 2.E+20 0.E E+22 5.E+21 0.E+00 Total Transistors Forecast Source: VLSI Research, 2016

38 Cumulative Transistor Unit Volume When Will We Need an Alternative to the Silicon Transistor Switch? Maturity approaches 5.E+22 5.E+22 4.E+22 4.E+22 3.E+22 3.E+22 Constant growth rate 2.E+22 2.E+22 1.E+22 Today 5.E+21 0.E+00 Total Transistors Forecast Source: VLSI Research, 2016

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40 Three Major Areas of IoT Semiconductor Growth Data center analytics, networking and storage Big digital SoCs Storage Solid state memory Gateways Data collection hubs IoT nodes Sensors Actuators Imagers Transmitters

41 Most of the IoT Semiconductor Revenue Today Is In the Data Center Data center analytics, networking and storage Big digital Storage Gateways Data collection hubs IoT nodes Sensors Actuators Imagers Transmitters

42 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) Servers S-Curve Server Semiconductor Consumption as a Percentage of Total Semiconductor Revenue % Server Unit Shipments Forecast Sources: Gartner Group, IC Insights & Mentor Graphics analysis

43 From Mega Datacenters to Hillary Clinton s Closet

44 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) Datacenter Optical Interconnects 40 Gb Ethernet Gb Ethernet Forecast Source: Lightcounting, 2015

45 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) Datacenter Optical Interconnects 100 Gb Ethernet Gb Ethernet Forecast Source: Lightcounting, 2015

46 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) Datacenter Optical Interconnects All Data Rates Data Center Optical Interconnect Forecast Source: Lightcounting, 2015

47 Today s IoT Evolution/Revolution Server Network Center Big data Big VLSI Big memory Big $ Gateways Medium data Medium VLSI Medium memory Medium $ Sensors/Actuators Ultra small Ultra low power Ultra low cost Small, sensing, computing, memory, broadcast Low $

48 Intelligence Flows Downhill Dumb Terminals Mini Computers Mini Computers Mini Computers Personal Computers Personal Computers Dumb Terminals Dumb Peripherals Smart Peripherals 1960s 1980s 1990s 2000s

49 Gateways Will Become a Big Market for Semiconductors Data center analytics, networking and storage Big digital Storage Gateways Data collection hubs IoT nodes Sensors Actuators Imagers Transmitters

50 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) IoT & Intelligent Gateways IoT & Gateway Semiconductor Consumption as a Percentage of Total Semiconductor Revenue % (IC only) Gateways Forecast Sources: IC Insights, Market Drivers

51 Semiconductor IoT Nodes Big Volume, Low Unit Prices Data center analytics, networking and storage Big digital Storage Gateways Data collection hubs IoT nodes Sensors Actuators Imagers Transmitters

52 IoT End-Use Nodes Volume is urban infrastructure Traffic lights, Metering (water, electric, etc.) $20 $15 $10 $5 $9.6B IoT Semiconductor by End Category $11.9B $15.4B $18.4B Wearable Systems CAGR = 207% Connected Vehicles CAGR = 36% Connected Homes CAGR = 26% Connected Cities CAGR = 18% Industrial Internet CAGR = 24% Sensors, Actuators Discrete 2015 IoT Semiconductor $15.4 Billion 30% 70% MPUs/MCUs, SoCs, Memory, Analog, Wireless & Wired ICs $ f Market Total CAGR 5 Year = 24.2% Sources: IC Insight, IC Market Drivers, 2015

53 IoT Edge Device Complex but extremely cost-sensitive design Sensor with MEMS A/D converter Analog signal processing Digital interface Radio (RF communication) Microcontroller Microcontroller ST Microelectronics / STM32L151C6 ARM Cortex-M3 processor Accelerometer Battery Charger IC Texas Instruments / BQ24040 Bluetooth IC Nordic Semiconductor / nrf8001 Source: ifixit.com

54 Cumulative Unit Volume (Millions) MEMs-Based Sensors (Excluding Actuators & Optoelectronic Sensors) MEMs-Based Sensors as a Percent of Total Semiconductor Revenue % % % MEMs Sensors Forecast Source: IC Insights, 2016

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56 Internet of Services Information services $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Intelligent control systems $ $ $ $ Engineered packaged solution $ $ Sensor $

57 Value of Data A single twin-engine aircraft with an average 12-hr. flight-time can produce up to 844 TB of data. Bhoopathi Rapolu, Aviation Week, Jan 18, 2016

58 Non-Semiconductor Companies are Designing New Chips 382 million people have diabetes globally Continuous glucose monitoring Can potentially track 100s of bio markers Source: IC Insights McClean Report

59 Will Information Companies Become the Next Generation of Semiconductor Companies?

60 IoT As a Source of Future Semiconductor Revenue Growth IoT data owners will make most of the money Traditional semiconductor companies will attempt to capture data ownership value Growing semiconductor/sensor capability will create new semiconductor applications and bring new companies into semiconductor design

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