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Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 01 JUN 2008 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Automating Forecasting and Exploration of Complex Simulation Effects (AFECSE) 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories 3 Executive Campus. Cherry Hili, NJ 08002 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR S ACRONYM(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution unlimited 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR S REPORT NUMBER(S) 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES See also ADM202527. Military Operations Research Society Symposium (76th) Held in New London, Connecticut on June 10-12, 2008, The original document contains color images. 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 27 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

Automating Forecasting and Exploration of Complex Simulation Effects (AFECSE) June 10-12, 2008 Thaddeus Konicki, Janet Wedgwood, Zach Horiatis, and John Welsh Advanced Technology Laboratories

Introduction Problem / Challenge Military planners are moving to Effects-Based Operations (EBO) to achieve desired effects through a combination of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) actions Modeling and simulation can be used to determine the probable desirable and undesirable effects of DIME actions, while developing a better understanding of second- and third-order effects Currently, modeling and simulation environments for EBO are difficult and costly to develop and maintain Page 3

Discussion: Today s Modeling Approaches Most modeling approaches focus on studying a problem in a specific domain that Enable us to explore the intricacies of the subject domains Ignore cross-domain dependencies and dynamics Are typically based on a single modeling paradigm (discrete event, continuous time, or agent-based, etc.) Attempts to create models that try to incorporate all aspects in a single model have not been widely accepted Page 4

Discussion: Benefits of Multi- Paradigm Modeling Most models are based on a single modeling paradigm (discrete event, continuous time, or agent-based, etc.) People who develop domain and paradigm specific models generally choose the best approach to solve the particular problem in their domain A single modeling paradigm may not be able to efficiently handle and represent all aspects of a complex realistic problem Page 5

Goal Enable analysts to easily exploit the power of Modeling and Simulation for exploring Effects-Based Operations through automation of scenario development, model instantiation, integration and initialization and Course of Action (COA) development Page 6

Approach Automate the instantiation of a scenario Represent the platform-independent description of an integrated model set in such a way that an autocoding tool/wizard can generate the simulation platform specific model integration code» Apply ontologies and a system modeling language to capture the relationships between the entities that are being models and the interactions that occur amongst the entities» Parse and reason about the descriptive information found in the platform-independent descriptions to auto-generate the integration and execution control code Page 7

Ontology Language for Entity/ Model Relationships An ontology defines a set of representational primitives that can be applied to model a domain of knowledge or discourse. OWL = Web Ontology Language The principal technologies of the Semantic Web fit into a set of layered specifications: RDF Core Model, RDF Schema Language, OWL Semantic Web languages use XML syntax OWL vocabulary includes a set of XML elements and attributes with well defined meanings Used to describe domain terms and their relationships in an ontology OWL vocabulary is built on top of the RDF(S) vocabulary Has a richness for describing relations among classes, properties, and individuals Apply OWL/RDF(S) to describe the relationships between the entities of a simulation and the models that represent them Page 8

UML/SysML for Integrated Model Interactions SysML is a visual modeling language for system engineering SysML extends, and is compatible with, the Unified Modeling Language (UML) for software engineering SysML reuses UML2 diagrams for Use Case Diagram State Machine Diagram Interaction (Sequence) Diagram SysML extends the following UML2 diagrams Block Definition Diagram (based on UML2 Class Diagram) Internal Block Diagram (based on UML2 Composite Structure Diagram) Activity Diagram (based on UML2 Activity Diagram) Adds the following diagrams Requirements Parametric Constraint Use SysML constructs to capture data flow and interactions between the models Page 9

Integration Assistant for Simulation Instantiation Semantic Conceptual Model (SCM ) Representation UML/ SysML Representation DIAS Entity Representation Mapping Through Process Object to Simulation Institution 1 instance-of Institutions i.e. universities recruits-from Terrorist Network e1 Institution 1 e2 Interaction Instance Interaction Instances provide algorithmic meaning to ontological relationships Model Instances Terrorist Group1 Recruits From Institutions y1 {Y1(t) = F1[x1(t),x2(t)]} x1 x2 public class Institutions extends entity private void Institution1 ( ( DIAS private int e1,e2; Process public aspect Object executemodel1(); { }. }. public class terroristgroup1_recruit sfrom_institution1 extends entity private void DIAS terroristgroup1_recruit Process Object sfrom_institution1 ( ( private int x1,x2; private int y1 y1 public int influence{int a, a, int b){ Institution1 simulation models for recruitsfrom y1 y1 = F1[x1(t),x2(t)]}; instance-of Terrorist Group1 s3 s1 Terrorist Group 1 s4 s2 Our UML/SysML representation adds I/O connectivity between node instances through Interaction Instances public class terroristgroup1 extends entity private void terroristgroup1 () () ( ( private int s1,s2; public aspect executenetwork(); proper DIAS call to to terroristgroup1 Model DIAS Process Object TerroristGroup1 simulation The DIAS Process Object provides the data transfer between DIAS and the simulatable model SimS combines ontological, structural, and behavioral representations of models to enable autocode assisted integration Page 10

Semantic Conceptual Model Example PIM Person uses Infrastructure instance-of damages Electrical is-a participates-in Attacks Infrastructure Attacks instance-of Electrical Infrastructure Attack Group1 instance-of Terrorist Group implemented-by GroupModelA Group1_ ModelA Leader 2 instance-of instance-of Leader hasbehavior suggests-acts Behavior instance-of calculatecostofattack Leader1 Our Simulatable Scenario (SimS) Enables Mapping of Semantic Models to Simulation Experiments Page 11

Conceptual Models with Actions Coerce Instance-of Actions on Leaders Detain on Group1 Freeze Assets instance-of Leader has-leader Instance-of recruits-from Terrorist Group participates-in Taking an action on a model = changing relevant model parameters Leader1 hasbehavior member-of influences participates-in Behavior Person The conceptual model takes on new dimensions to support autocoding requirements Page 12

PIM-PSM Model Relationship Entity Person Leader 2 instance-of instance-of Al Sadr calculatecostofa ttacks (code in Model) Mahdi Militia TankPerson LeaderPerson Method instance-of Terrorist Group implemented-by GroupModelA hasbehavior suggests-acts Group1_ ModelA Behavior instance-of calculatecostofa ttacks Aspect instance-of hasprocess Process Ldr calculatecostofatt acks- Autogenerated Code- processmethod hasmodel hasmethod Model Al Sadr Model- Provided code Page 13

SysML Structural Models; Relationships and Data Flow 1 Leader Leader Simulation * 3 1 5 TerroristOrg Recruit Infrastructure SysML Block Definition Diagram (BDD) is used to capture the components of the composable simulation. The BDD can also be used to visualize the entity and model relationships that are now captured as Ontology Networks. Use the Internal Block Diagram (IBD) to capture the flow of data and messages between the entity models. media 1 Leader Leader Simulation 3 TerroristOrg «flow» 1 Recruit «flow» 5 Infrastructure «flow» Page 14

Integrated Model Sequence Diagram; Entity Interactions After importing ontology into SysML tool, Sequence Diagram data is used to provide information on execution flow and event generation Page 15

System Implementation Simulation entities Relationships amongst the entities Identify models that represent the entities Ontology Design Platform Independent Protégé 3.2 Ontology Design Platform Specific Protégé 3.2 Semantic Conceptual Model {scenario description} UML/SysML to OWL Conversion Xalan XSLT Processor (OWL/RDFS) (OWL/RDFS) Parse Protégé - OWL Jena EAPM parameters used to describe the DIAS code structure Dictionary Transform Guide (ATL) EAPM Matrix Generation (ATL) Interactions between models Data flow between models UML/SysML Structure and Behavior MDG Tech for SysML Enterprise Architect MDG Integ for Eclipse Eclipse/EMF XMI Class Diagrams Block Diagrams Ports and Flows Activity Diagrams Dias Platform Autogenerated Code EAPM Autocode (ATL) Page 16

DIAS Architecture Representing Simulation Platform DIAS (Dynamic Information Architecture System: Argonne National Laboratory) Uses the EAPM to define how the models are integrated Entities: People places or things to be modeled Aspects: Specific behaviors of the Entities Process: Linkage of a behavior to a particular model Model: Code that communicates and runs a model There is great regularity to the EAPM structure that is very amenable to autocoding Page 17

Ontology Capture of Entity/Model Relationships with Protégé-OWL Page 18

Transform UML to OWL in order to Extract Interaction Info UML Tool Enterprise Architect share Ontology Tool export XSLT XMI-to-OWL Translation Template import Protégé-OWL Jena XMI XSLT Processor OWL XMI XML Metadata Interchange XSLT Extensible Stylesheet Language Transformations Xalan 2.0 OWL-DL OWL-S OWL-P Page 19

Xalan 2.0; Used to Translate from XMI to OWL-S Page 20

Example of XMI-to-OWL-S Translation Template Example is taken from Describing Semantic Web Services: From UML to OWL- S, Kim and Lee, 2007 IEEE International Conference on Web Services Page 21

OWL Service Ontology Service Profile Service Service Grounding Service Model Page 22

EAPM Generator: Entity Interface Information displayed (extracted from the UML/SysML) for an Entity: 1. Name 2. COA name, if part of one 3. Attributes (or parameters) 4. Aspects (or behaviors) 5. Events emitted (or sent) 6. Events received 7. Event data name 8. Event handlers 9. Events scheduled 10. Number of associated processes Next Button: Once the user fills the form and presses Next, the entity.java code will be auto-generated under the indicated package name directory structure Page 23

EAPM Generator: Process Interface Information displayed (extracted from the UML/SysML) for a Process: 1. Name 2. Input parameters 3. Output parameters Next Button: Once the user fills the form and presses Next, the process.java code will be autogenerated under the indicated package name directory structure Page 24

EAPM Generator: Model Information displayed (extracted from the UML/SysML Model: 1. Name 2. Is the model Internal or External? 3. Model method of interest Next Button: Once the user fills the form and presses Next, the model.java code will be auto-generated under the indicated package name directory structure Page 25

Products Platform Independent Model (PIM) Related OWL and SySML» Conceptual Model augmented with behaviors, actions and effects» Model Integration Design Capture Process» OWL to SySML Translation Processes» Approach to capturing COA (action, node, effect triple plus temporal aspects) Simulation Experimentation Related EAPM Generator : Simulation skeleton auto-coding tool and COA definition (OWL/SySML to DIAS translation) What-If Experimentation User Interface Page 26