Global Tier 1 5G Deployments and X-Hauling Presented by Jake Saunders VP, Asia-Pacific ABI Research @ GSMA s Future Broadband Forum 28 th June, 2018 v1 2018 ABI Research 1 2017 ABI Research www.abiresearch.com The material contained herein is for the individual use of the purchasing Licensee and may not be distributed to any other person or entity by such Licensee including, without limitation, to persons within the same corporate or other entity as such Licensee, without the express written permission of Licensor.
Table of Contents 1. Introduction to ABI Research 2. Road to 5G 3. Challenges in the X-Haul 4. Summary & Conclusions 2018 ABI Research 2 2017 ABI Research www.abiresearch.com The material contained herein is for the individual use of the purchasing Licensee and may not be distributed to any other person or entity by such Licensee including, without limitation, to persons within the same corporate or other entity as such Licensee, without the express written permission of Licensor.
1. Introduction to ABI Research We are a technology market intelligence company with a 25-year proven track record of putting information into the hands of executives. Insights Market Data ABI Research qualifies the important markets of today, defines the strategic technologies of tomorrow, and provides insight on how technology is adopted into vertical markets. Teardowns Presentations Reports 2018 ABI Research 3 2017 ABI Research www.abiresearch.com The material contained herein is for the individual use of the purchasing Licensee and may not be distributed to any other person or entity by such Licensee including, without limitation, to persons within the same corporate or other entity as such Licensee, without the express written permission of Licensor.
2. Road to 5G > 5G 3GPP Initiatives will place substantial bandwidth at the disposal of mobile telcos Spectrum Work in 3GPP Release 15 and 16 September 2018: Phase 1 (Rel 15) bands up to 52 GHz December 2019: Phase 2 (Rel 16) on bands up to 100 GHz Availability of Large Contiguous Spectrum GSA recommended 100 MHz of spectrum But standardization support 20 MHz up to 100 MHz Support for Carrier Aggregation and Massive MIMO Not all operators will get 100 MHz contiguous spectrum, so carrier aggregation is needed Massive MIMO in sub-6 GHz research, even mmwave Existing LTE Network and Spectrum Holding For non-standalone 5G NR, LTE used as control plane anchor When 5G embb user moves out of range, device switches to gigabit LTE 2018 ABI Research 4
2. Road to 5G > Different spectrum bands can complement each other cmw is from 3 GHz to 30 GHz (wavelength is 10 cm to 1 cm) mmw is from 30 GHz to 300 GHz (wavelength is 10 mm to 1 mm) Wide range of bands requires a new perspective from telcos 2018 ABI Research 5
2. Road to 5G > 3.5 GHz and 26~28 GHz are the principal 5G bands, but not the only ones 5G Spectrum Identified by Country Trials in the 28 GHz band have the largest share Followed by 3.5, 3.6~3.8 GHz band trials However countries are actively evaluating & consulting for 700 MHz, 600 MHz & other low bands 700 MHz 600 MHz * Local spectrum awards influenced by local economic drivers * T-Mobile USA has declared it will use 600 MHz spectrum for 5G 2018 ABI Research 6
2. Road to 5G > After 2021, 5G traffic expected to ramp up dramatically Traffic by Wireless Protocol 2016: Mobile video represented 48% 2025: Mobile video captured 78% 2022: 5G traffic starts to grow dramatically Anticipated 5G Commercial Starts 4K video will represent 15% of video content by 2020, 40% by 2025 2018 ABI Research 7
2. Road to 5G > Network Slicing to Prep the Mobile Telco for 5G Applications Source: arcep A bold vision but how to make it happen? 2018 ABI Research 8
2. Road to 5G > Notable 5G trials and potential deployments Telenor: With Huawei, to achieve a max demo speed of 70 Gbps in E- band spectrum with MU-MIMO T-Mobile Ger: With Huawei, demoed E2E network slicing, including RAN, transport, and CN AT&T: Nokia demoed a FWA 5G internet TV streaming app in the 39 GHz band NTT DoCoMo: With Ericsson, inter-op testing and OTT field trials in 4.5 GHz and 28 GHz Vodafone UK: With Ericsson, testing NG gigabit throughput in sub-6 GHz bands; target use cases include VR/AR and advanced cloud-based services China Mobile: With Huawei, demoed 22 Gbps AR/VR using 3.5 GHz and mm-wave (Ka band) Zain Saudi: With Nokia exploring the 5G IOT apps such as industrial networking, smart factories/offices, remote healthcare, VR, & 4K video 2018 ABI Research 9
2. Road to 5G > Cell-sites are getting significant upgrades Dynamic beamforming shapes cell coverage Proactive Cell Shaping Migrating to MIMO Antennas MIMO antennas Deployed 2x2 MIMO LTE is well established and now moving to 4x4 MIMO Standard 3 sector converted to 6 sector Vector Sectorization Increasing number of smartphones support 4x4 (Samsung, Apple, Huawei) Many Operators have trialed 8x8 MIMO. This is for Multi- User scenarios And then there is Massive MIMO 16x16, 32x32, 64x64 2018 ABI Research 10
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > Backhaul bandwidth requirements, 2017, 2022, and 2025 Cell-site are increasingly blending in but Lifecell in Lviv, Ukraine Latency: CPRI architecture requires 75 µs, F1 needs 5 ms and even S1/NG needs 30~5 ms 2018 ABI Research 11
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > MIMO Antenna Development: Role of Active vs Passive Deployments are midband 1.7 GHz to 3.5 GHz In 32T.32R or 64T.64R configuration MIMO Installed Base by Platform ABI Research believes for MNO, 10% of sites = massive MIMO, take 5 years 2021: Massive MIMO penetration for LTE-Advanced Pro & 5G reaches 4.7% Fiber-optic plays essential role in cell-sites with active antennas 2018 ABI Research 12
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > Mobile service providers face considerable challenges Tower management companies are acquiring existing & new cell-sites Macro & small cell Installed Base-stations by Cell Type World-wide Stimulating upgrades to cell-sites, including fiber-optic roll-out In 2017: 49% macro cell sites are multi-operator sites By 2022: 55% are multioperator sites The average* number of basestations per telco: 15,000 to 30,000 * Excluding China 2018 ABI Research 13
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > Backhaul Technology Tradeoffs, Wireless vs Fixed vs Satellite Backhaul Method Microwave (6-40 GHz) V-Band (60 GHz) E-Band (70/80 GHz) Fiber-optic Copper (Bonded) Satellite Satellite Future-proof Available Bandwidth Medium High High Very High Very Low Low Deployment Cost Low Low Low Medium Medium/High High Suitability for Heterogeneous Networks Support for Mesh/Ring Topology Interference Immunity Outdoor Cellsite / Access Network Outdoor Cellsite / Access Network Outdoor Cellsite / Access Network Yes Yes Yes Outdoor Cellsite / Access Network / Core Yes where avaialble Indoor Access Network Indoors Rural only Medium High High Very High Very High Medium Range (Km) 5~30,++ 1~ ~3 <80 <15 Unlimited Time to Deploy Weeks Days Days Months Months Months License Required Yes Light License/ Unlicensed Note: Shading Indicates preferred choice for 5G mobile back haul Licensed/Light License Yes No No Yes Fiber Microwave Mobile telcos will need a range of backhaul solutions but fiber-optic will be preferred 2018 ABI Research 14
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > Total (Macro + Small Cell) Backhaul by Method, World Markets, Historical 2017 and Forecast 2025 Satellite Microwave Fiber Total installed base of backhaul links increases 1.5-fold Fiber-optic (26% to 40%) and Microwave: 41~100 GHz (5% to 13%) are the biggest winners 2018 ABI Research 15
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > Total (Macro + Small Cell) Backhaul by Method, By Region, Historical 2017 and Forecast 2025 Satellite Microwave Fiber However considerable variation exists between regions. Especially NE Asia (China, Korea & Japan) and North America Residential broadband, cellsite upgrades will prime demand for fiber-optic Regulatory stimulation will be needed 2018 ABI Research 16
3. Challenges in the X-Haul > Backhaul makes up a significant proportion of Total Cost of Ownership Macrocell site TCO over 5 years: US$ 100,000 to US$ 200,000 Small Cell site TCO over 5 years: US$ 20,000 to US$ 50,000 Cell-sites have to be built... but OpEx (67%) the larger expense Novel deployment solutions needed Backhaul is a comparatively small part of CapEx (15%) but plays bigger role (30%) in OpEx Conduit access regulatory stimulus needed 2018 ABI Research 17
4. Summary & Conclusions Network slicing empowers a wide range of 5G apps A number of base-station upgrades being rolled out 3GPP Release 15 and 16 will provide an enormous capacity boost Multiple backhaul solutions needed Microwave complements fiber-optic Several spectrum bands proposed; 28 GHz & 3.5 GHz are key, 700 MHz & 600 MHz have role to play Fiber-optic will be an anchor technology of the 5G future but needs regulatory stimulus 2018 ABI Research 18
Thank you www.abiresearch.com Jake Saunders 2018 ABI Research 19