W H I T E P A P E R S e r v e r R e f r e s h t o M e e t t h e C h a n g i n g N e e d s o f I T? Sponsored by: Sun Microsystems and Intel Kenneth Cayton September 2008 E X E C U T I VE SUMMARY Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA 01701 USA P.508.872.8200 F.508.935.4015 www.idc.com The installed base of server systems has grown rapidly over the past 10 to 12 years, driven primarily by x86-based system growth. x86-based servers are expected to account for approximately 95% of the server shipments for 2008. A significant number of those shipments will replace/refresh existing installed systems. There are many reasons to refresh servers, including replacing systems that are no longer functional, meeting the compute demands required by new business requirements, or saving energy and cutting costs with new, more efficient systems, or a combination of all of the reasons. The technology available in servers has changed rapidly, giving end users increased ability to build more flexible and efficient environments. The hardware is more powerful and efficient, and new capabilities on x86, such as virtualization, have improved users' ability to maximize the use and flexibility of their servers. Some of the forcing functions driving change are underutilized systems, space and power constraints, operating expenses, and business growth:! Systems that are underutilized are being looked at to understand how to better make use of server investments. One solution is to increase usage through virtualization and consolidation. This is frequently accomplished by refreshing with more capable systems while consolidating on fewer systems. This results in fewer systems with a smaller footprint and lower energy costs.! Space and power issues may be driven by actual constraints or a desire to cut cost with smaller footprints or to just slow/stop growth.! Operating expenses may be the result of proliferation of systems or system types, or both. Server consolidation helps lower server count and possibly types as well. This offers good potential to lower operating complexity and cost but usually requires good planning as well.! Business growth and competitive pressures are creating a need for more compute resources to support increased usage and new applications.
SITUATION OVERVIEW IDC believes that over 32 million servers are installed worldwide today and expects that number to grow to over 41 million servers in 2012. The age and usefulness of these systems vary widely. According to the 2008 IDC Server Workloads study, 27% of installed systems are one to three years old, 19% are four years old, and 54% are five years or older. Figure 1 shows the installed base forecast for Unix, Linux, and Windows. Unix is basically flat, while Linux is expected to increase at a CAGR of 9% and Windows is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7%. Windows dominates market share with 67% of units in 2008 and is expected to grow to approximately 70% in 2012. FIGURE 1 Server Installed Base Forecast, 2008 2012 (M) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Windows Linux Unix Source: IDC's Server Installed Base Forecast, May 2008 Why Refresh? One of the leading questions IT organizations face when thinking about their installed base of servers is when and how to refresh those servers. IT organizations are constantly evaluating their ability to meet the needs of their users and balancing their existing infrastructure against those needs. The demand for compute resources is constantly increasing in most businesses today. There is a long list of potential business issues that may need to be addressed. For example:! Update/retire obsolete systems # Need to replace old systems that are no longer supported and/or servers that lack the performance needed to run newer applications 2 #214217 2008 IDC
! Workload growth # Support new applications # Increased workload on existing applications exceeds the capabilities of the current systems # Consolidated workloads! Operating efficiency improvement # Improve operating efficiencies such as ease of manageability, scalability, sustainability, and technology change management to increase output and control operating expenses # Need for higher reliability to meet end-user SLA requirements # Decrease time to deploy applications and application services! Environmental control # Reduce or control environmental issues such as power, cooling, and space limitations! Cost control # Reduce capital expenditure costs Common Approaches When demand increases or changes occur in structure, IT organizations may use several different approaches to meet the new requirements. They could replace or upgrade existing systems, add additional new systems, consolidate or restructure application usage, or outsource applications, or a combination of these choices. Granted, this is a simplistic view to point out that IT organizations have multiple options to consider when they are revising their systems and operations. Upgrades The following list highlights some of the criteria IT organizations should consider when deciding whether or not to upgrade rather than purchase an additional server or a replacement server. When these are true, then an upgrade is a viable option:! The system will have sufficient life span to support new and/or additional workloads with an upgrade.! There is available space for the additional processors, memory, and IO required for an upgrade.! The upgraded system will be able to support the added workload requirements.! New workloads are compatible with existing workloads already running on the server either with or without an upgrade to the existing system. 2008 IDC #214217 3
! There will be sufficient headroom and flexibility to handle potential usage spikes and changes. Replacement/Refreshed Servers Servers are replaced or refreshed for many different reasons. Some of the more frequently cited reasons are:! Servers are no longer viable or desirable for upgrades as listed earlier or need additional capability not available through an upgrade.! Existing system is being retired because of nonsupport or maintenance issues.! The system is unable to support the growth of the current application and will be repurposed to run another application.! To meet consolidation requirements, a server with higher performance, more memory capacity, and increased IO capabilities is required.! Restructuring using virtualization to gain better utilization and flexibility exceeds the system's capabilities.! Power and cooling constraints and/or goals require more efficient systems.! Space constraints require smaller footprint servers.! Operational efficiency requires different systems. Outsourcing Applications Outsourcing runs from single applications to complete IT operations. Examples of two commonly outsourced applications are payroll and HR. This paper focuses on decision making for internal IT infrastructure and as such does not attempt to answer questions relative to outsourcing decisions. The x86 Market This paper focuses on the x86-based Sun server line using Intel Xeon processors. The x86 server market is expected to increase from 2008 to 2012 at a 6% CAGR. The expected growth in the server market is a reflection of the changing requirements in the market. The general growth indicates an increase in computing requirements. The growth in smaller, more compact form factors points to the change in space, power, and manageability requirements. An examination of form factors shows that blades are expected to increase at a 28% CAGR, which is more than four times the total market growth over the same period. Figure 2 shows that rack-optimized servers are growing slightly and non-rack-optimized servers are declining slightly. In essence, blades represent most of the unit growth in the x86 server market. 4 #214217 2008 IDC
FIGURE 2 x86 Server Forecast, 2008 2012 12 10 8 (M) 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Non-rack-optimized Rack-optimized Blade Source: IDC's Server Forecast, 1Q08 "Upgrade or Refresh: What Makes Sense?" Solving the Problem! It's an easy decision to retire an outdated, underperforming, and unsupported system. The more important decision is what the replacement should be and what criteria should be used to select the new system. In some cases, the systems may not meet those requirements, making the decision easy, but they may still need to be replaced with higher-performing, more efficient and flexible up-to-date systems. The following are some of the potentially key reasons to refresh a server (sample problems and solutions are also noted):! Boost application performance and responsiveness # Problem: Application speed and responsiveness is borderline or unacceptable. # Solution: A new server will typically be multiple times faster than an older system. Server technology continues to advance rapidly and has increased server performance more than four times over the past three to four years while maintaining the same cost structure. 2008 IDC #214217 5
! Contain or lower costs plus reduce server footprint # Problem: Lower energy consumption and cost, plus decrease datacenter space requirements; or increase compute capacity in the same space while maintaining or lowering energy requirements. # Solution: New, more energy-efficient systems in smaller form factors utilizing lower-power multicore processors provide more performance in a smaller space while decreasing the power required to perform an operation.! Create a flexible, manageable environment for consolidation and better operations # Problem: Maximize flexibility, increase utilization, reduce management overhead. # Solution: Virtualization capabilities provide a platform for getting more flexibility and utilization out of servers. New servers are generally designed to be virtualized with virtualization hardware acceleration built in to the Intel silicon. In addition, they have a more balanced system to eliminate potential bottlenecks while running highly utilized systems with multiple applications operating simultaneously. Virtualization can be used to better control applications on a single server and to make multiple servers look alike for transparent operations. This allows flexibility in where applications run, thus making a more flexible environment. These are a few examples of why and how server refresh should be done. The best choice is always to plan ahead in a proactive fashion. The goal should be to make changes as soon as possible to meet business needs and maximize resources. An End-User Example When a large hosting company purchased several smaller companies, it acquired several datacenters with a variety of equipment. After analyzing its newly acquired assets, it decided on a plan for one of the datacenters to consolidate over 800 servers and 80 racks to 4 Sun Blade System chassis in 2 racks. The company was able to virtualize the servers and load the applications onto fewer, more powerful servers. This move significantly reduced space requirements, power and cooling requirements and costs, maintenance costs, and management complexity and costs. This consolidation was accomplished while simultaneously increasing the workload and maintaining desired headroom for the business' changing requirements. This is an excellent example of proactively looking at resources and planning to be more efficient and cost-effective. 6 #214217 2008 IDC
SUN AND INTEL SOLUTION On January 22, 2007, Sun Microsystems and Intel Corporation announced an agreement to optimize the Solaris operating system for use on Intel Xeon processors. The optimizations for and enabling of Solaris and OpenSolaris on Intel Xeon processors focus on four key areas:! Improved performance. Enhancements have been made to Solaris, resulting in a significant performance boost on Intel Xeon processor based systems.! Efficient power management. Sun and Intel have developed ways to lower power utilization on Intel Xeon processor based systems by optimizing Solaris to take advantage of Intel's built-in power management functions.! Increased reliability, availability, and serviceability (RAS). The Solaris Fault Management Architecture (FMA) software is being enhanced to adapt to the Intel Xeon processor's RAS features to provide a more reliable enterprise compute solution.! Virtualization enhancements. Sun and Intel have worked together to take advantage of innovations created in the Xen open source community to enable features in Intel's Virtualization Technology (VT) and Sun's xvm virtualization platform for a more robust set of virtualization capabilities. Since that time, Sun has built a family of Intel Xeon based servers as a part of its x64 line of servers. These systems offer end users a choice of operating system (Windows, Linux, or Solaris) on Intel Xeon processor based systems, in either rack or blade form factor, and they support VMware, Sun xvm Server, and Microsoft Virtual Server virtualization technologies. IDC end-user research shows that servers are used in a wide number of ways based on different usage models. For example, databases of different sizes and purposes run on every size system. Large complex databases typically run on large servers, but they could also be run across a cluster of smaller systems. Sun has fully recognized the need for a family of servers to meet various end-user requirements. This document highlights seven Sun/Intel servers that represent various size and types of systems to meet these needs. The first four are either 2- or 4-socket rackmounted systems. They cover usage models from Web servers to application and database servers and the need for high density versus high capacity. The last three are 2- and 4-socket blades for the highest density, modularity, serviceability, and scalability. Sun Fire X2250 is a 2-socket 1U server designed for HPC workloads. It uses the fastest version of Intel's Xeon 5400 Series processors and the fastest version of FB- DIMM memory to make it very efficient for high-performance computing (HPC) workloads. The X2250 server can be configured with a 120W processor for the highest performance of the Sun models or with the fastest 50W Xeon processor 5400 series available (2.5GHz), allowing for greater performance and lower energy costs. This system is also appealing for high-performance Web serving. The overall price/performance ratio is very good. 2008 IDC #214217 7
Sun Fire X4250 is a 2-socket 2U server designed for Web serving, database, and HPC. It supports up to 64GB memory and up to 16 SAS disk drives allowing local hosting for large database applications so most companies no longer need to purchase a separate storage unit. As a result, operational costs for space, energy, and cooling are decreased while more work is performed. Sun Fire X4150 is a 2-socket 1U server designed for Web serving, virtualization, security, DNS, caching, firewall, and high-performance grid computing workloads. It combines high compute density, high storage capacity, and network connectivity for a very flexible multipurpose compute platform. Sun Fire X4450 is a 4-socket 2U server. The Sun Fire X4450 server is optimized for high performance in a compact footprint and designed for energy efficiency and simplified manageability. It is intended for use with server consolidation and virtualization, database and Web serving, data warehousing and data analysis, and business processing. With the new 6-core Intel Xeon processor 7400 series, the Sun Fire X4450 is the industry's first and only 4-socket (24-way) x64 2U server. Sun Blade X6250 server module is a 2-socket blade server. It is designed for modular computing, serviceability, flexibility, and efficiency. It has hot-swappable disks and no fans or power supply units on the blade for higher availability. Key usage models and applications supported are virtualization and consolidation, Web infrastructure, HPC, and back office (e.g., CRM, ERP, DSS). Sun Blade X6450 server module is a 4-socket blade server with up to 192GB of memory. It is designed for modular computing, serviceability, flexibility, and efficiency. With its large memory capacity, the Sun Blade X6450 supports a broad set of enterprise-level applications. The key workloads and usages supported are virtualization and server consolidation, HPC, database, and back office (e.g., CRM, ERP, DSS). Sun Blade X8450 server module is a 4-socket blade server with up to 128GB of maximum memory. Designed to process large-scale Oracle and SAP applications, and to offer two to three times the density of rackmounted servers, it has enterpriseclass RAS capabilities with hot-pluggable, redundant components. Key uses include enterprise-class applications, HPC, server consolidation and virtualization, plus x86 clusters and grids. As discussed and shown earlier, these systems offer a broad set of choices and capabilities in hardware and software, including support for multiple operating systems and virtualization technologies. 8 #214217 2008 IDC
CHALLENGES/OPPORTUNITIES Sun has both a challenge and an opportunity in the x86 market. It has developed a comprehensive line of x86-based servers that are not well known in the market. Sun is known as a technology company focused on Solaris, Unix, and SPARC processors. Solaris, Linux, and Windows on x86 need to be more visible to educate the market on Sun's full product line. New technology is an opportunity for IT organizations to better the performance and services supplied to their company. Action is required to leverage this opportunity. Sun and Intel face both the opportunity and the challenge of better educating their prospects and customers on their options to lower costs and increase productivity by utilizing new available technology/systems. They need to develop easy-to-understand and easy-to-implement examples of rearchitected usage models that incorporate "how to" models for end users. CONCLUSION IDC estimates that the server market has grown to an installed base of over 32 million systems worldwide. This large installed base represents an opportunity for vendors to supply the systems required to replace these systems as they need to be refreshed. The x86 market is the largest and fastest-growing segment of the market. These Sun Intel Xeon processor based systems are targeted directly at the market and offer both Windows and Linux operating systems along with Solaris. Their form factor is on target by being focused on rack-optimized and blade servers that represent the growth within the x86 market. End users have an opportunity to improve their environment with wise choices that will give them better performance, lower operating costs, better efficiency, and more flexibility. The challenge is to understand their unique requirements and discover what options are available. This should involve working with their trusted partners to best match up needs and capabilities/solutions. End users should look at Sun's broad portfolio of systems as one of their options when refreshing their systems or adding additional systems. The number of systems that need to be refreshed will continue to grow over the forecast horizon. New technology will continue to drive betterperforming, more efficient and cost-effective systems over time. Copyright Notice External Publication of IDC Information and Data Any IDC information that is to be used in advertising, press releases, or promotional materials requires prior written approval from the appropriate IDC Vice President or Country Manager. A draft of the proposed document should accompany any such request. IDC reserves the right to deny approval of external usage for any reason. Copyright 2008 IDC. Reproduction without written permission is completely forbidden. 2008 IDC #214217 9