Smart Card Alliance Meeting Next Generation Applications for SIM Smart Card Alliance Meeting Mobile Ecosystem Mark Lowenstein, Managing Director Phone: 781-416-WRLS Email: mlowenstein@m-ecosystem.com 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 1
Agenda Key Industry Catalysts Next Generation of Applications and Technology 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 2
Theme 1: Changing Industry Structure and Economics 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 3
New Economic Reality A New Economic Reality on the One Hand Flat subscriber and revenue growth in the U.S. Capex down Cost structure remains high (000) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Unit Shares by Mode 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Local LD Wireless DSL Cable Modem Surging MOU on the Other AVG MOU 500+; Landline displacement is largest growth opportunity for wireless carriers. Wireless growth is coming at expense of landline U.S. MOUs 2x that of Europe Voice cheap relative to text Landline 5 /min $250B $77B Mobile 11 /min 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 4
Accelerated Switch and Replacement Cycle Wireless number portability Voice services cheap and a commodity Handset replacement rates accelerating 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 5
Reducing OPEX Outsource distribution Channel rationalization Self-care Reduce backhaul costs Managed services Network sharing (impacts OPEX too) Outsource IT Taking unnecessary resources out of the network 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 6
Theme 2: Evolution in Wireless Networks 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 7
Evolution of WAN: Status Quo for Now Circuit-switched Persistent narrowband Broadband Data rates (in kbps) More than 256 40 to 60 14 Voice Packet-enabled enabled Data services Rich messaging and entertainment Pre-2001 Now? 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 8
The Always On Ecosystem Networks Circuit/IP Moving to all IP Pervasive computing Presence Management Simultaneous Voice and Data Devices Support always on Thicker clients Persistence Standards/ Protocols OSs Open standards Billing/OSS Security Persistent Connection Always On User Experience Immediacy, Reliability Applications MMS Mobile Office, gaming Early multimodal Evolve to multimedia Unified Messaging 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 9
Theme 3: Device Revolution 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 10
Device Revolution Pocket PC 64MB memory huge differentiator Tighter integration with MSOFT wireless strategy Best platform for multimedia Great new devices on the way 2.5G Phones Large color screens Integrated cameras Polyphonic Sound Downloadable Applications Multimedia Support Palm OS Integrated phone, messaging, PIM, Web New email client Will support alwayson Poor at multitasking CDMA 1x and GPRS App-Centric Devices Larger screens QWERTY keyboard Integrated with messaging applications and e-mail 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 11
Theme 4: Wireless Data is a Reality 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 12
Wireless Data Status Will contribute 5% of revenues to carriers in N.A. this year Largely led by SMS Ringtones, game downloads are next For 2004: - MMS - WLAN - Instant Messaging - Location Aware Services 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 13
Part 2: The Role of SIM in the Next Generation of Applications and Services 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 14
Personal Productivity Permanency Privacy Protection Our 4Ps for SIM-Based Apps 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 15
1. Productivity Old Model Network and synch centric Case Study: Device VAD New Model Device and OTA centric 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 16
Context Enablement Tools Case Studies: - mm02 MMS soccer - RealNetworks 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 17
2. Permanency Mobile e-mail MMS SMS Device-VAD Wireless IM App fatigue/fragmentation/silos Link user profiles to presence-based apps Storage 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 18
Building Loyalty in a Competitive, WNP Era Loyalty programs Exclusivity around content Embedded personal productivity, profile, security applications Hybrid network-device PIM Mobile becomes centric to micro-payments infrastructure Wireless becomes part of fabric tying together digital media 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 19
3. Privacy & Security Authentication and security VPNs Password storage and protection Provisioning Commerce and transactions Network and device management Evolving DRM infrastructure 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 20
4. Protection Accelerated switch and replacement cycle - WNP - Handset replacement rate Balance of power with device OEMs Ecosystem complexity 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 21
Tearing Down the Silos Mobile e-mail MMS SMS Wireless IM Device/Network-VAD 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 22
Concluding Points Wireless is the lexus point of next generation communications Era of the great proliferation : networks, devices, applications. How will all this be managed? IP-based networks, device revolution are helping create new classes of services and opportunities Wireless is more closely linked to the fixed line world than ever before Communications industry structure will undergo fundamental change this decade 2003, Mobile Ecosystem 23