ICTs AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY: Realizing the Full Potential STEPHEN HARPER GLOBAL DIRECTOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT POLICY OCTOBER 2012
You Need to Have a Smart Society To Have a Sustainable Society If consumption trends continue, we will need two Earths to support us Smart behaviors get us here Source: Global Footprint Network
Technology and Carbon Emissions Drive Computing to Be More Energy Efficient ~2% Opportunity Use Computing to Improve Energy Savings Outside Information and Communications Technology 98% = The Big Opportunity
Aggregate Demand for Computing Accelerating 80x10 18 70x10 18 60x10 18 50x10 18 40x10 18 30x10 18 20x10 18 10x10 18 0 2000-2010: 68% CAGR 74.5 Quintillion transistors shipped in 2010 OR 10 Billion transistors per person on earth Source: Intel/WSTS 4
Compared to the First Billion PCs Installed The Next Connected 2 Billion PCs Will Compute consume half the energy of 1st billion PCs deliver 17x the computational capacity Capacity To Build Smarter Societies 2 Billion PCs 1Billion PCs Energy 320 TeraWatt-hr Compute Capacity 2007 1 Billion PCs Installed Base ½ Energy 151 TeraWatt-hr 17x Compute Capacity 2014 2 Billion PCs Installed Base Source: Intel Microprocessor Marketing and Business Planning, and Intel iag/pcca Power Initiative team, PBCA-PPM
The Micro Story at the Microprocessor Level 1978 2008 Energy- efficiency Improvement Automobiles 40 percent Passenger Airlines 121 percent Agriculture 132 percent Steel Manufacturin g 167 percent Lighting 339 percent Computer Systems 2,857000 percent Source: A A Smarter Shade of Green, ACEEE Report for the Technology CEO Council, 2008. 6
The Micro Story at the System Level 1200 Estimated Annual Energy Consumption KWh Consumed per Year (lower is better) 1000 800 600 400 1015 938 655 229 Going Mobile 200 0 >17x Reduction 59 Unmanaged Pentium Dual Processor 945 with CRT display Unmanaged Pentium Dual Processor 945 with LCD display Unmanaged Core 2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD display Managed Core 2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD display Managed Core 2 Duo Processor T7700 mobile platform For system configuration details, please see Appendix on page 49. Performance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performance of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performance. This data may vary from other material generated for specific marketing requests.
Technology and Carbon Emissions Drive Computing to Be More Energy Efficient ~2% Opportunity the micro story Use Computing to Improve Energy Savings Outside Information and Communications Technology 98% = The Big Opportunity - The macro story
Macro Story Evidence American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) studied this issue and concluded: ICT seen as a major factor in improving energy efficiency of US economy during the Internet era For every extra Kwh of electricity that has been demanded by ICT, the US economy increased its overall energy savings by a factor of about 10 (2008) The Climate Group and the Global e-sustainability Initiative published a report entitled, Smart 2020: Enabling the Low Carbon Economy in the Information Age (2008), concluding: Smart 2020 concludes that ICT strategies could reduce up to 15% percent of global emissions in 2020 against a business as usual baseline US Addendum to Smart 2020 report, prepared by Boston Consulting Group indicates that ICT strategies could reduce US carbon emissions by up to 22 percent by 2020 vs. business-as-usual TAKE AWAY: ICT strategies offer huge potential for addressing climate challenge BUT there is a huge gap between actual performance (ACEEE) and potential (Smart 2020) 9
Macro Story Increasing the EE of Other Sectors Automation Substitution De-Materialization Industrial Robots Logistics for Transportation LEED Certified Buildings Smart Motors Smart Power Delivery Video Conferencing Online Entertainment e-commerce Paperless Office Converting Atoms to Bits On-line Banking Digital Media Content
Smarter Generation A Smarter Grid Smarter Transmission and Distribution Smarter Demand-Side Management Grid Security, Management & Communication Whole-Grid Modeling, Simulation, Monitoring and Control
An Example - Smart Wind: Highly Optimized, Highly Manageable A modern wind turbine contains up to 16 embedded Intel microprocessors to dynamically optimize direction, vane pitch, etc. to optimize energy production Intel AMT TM and TXT ensure that remote wind farms stay running and secure via remote operations centers In addition, network sensors communicate data to the embedded computer to monitor operating parameters Real-time Weather and Wind Forecasting, enabled by a large cluster of High Performance Computing (HPC) microprocessors
The Cloud as an Energy Efficiency Driver The Data Center and the network is at the center of the macro story The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) commissioned Verdantix to examine the impact of a broad US roll-out out of Cloud Computing, based on extrapolation from existing case studies: Huge CO2 emissions reductions Huge financial savings Strong positive financial ROI Indirect benefits from increased business process efficiencies and organizational flexibility SOURCE: The Carbon Disclosure Project/Verdantix: Cloud Computing: : The IT Solution for the 21 st Century
Gap Between Actual and Potential Due to Market Failures Lack of information re potential of various technologies Principal/agent issues High upfront costs Perceived small size of individual savings 14 14
Closing the Actual-to-Potential Gap Requires Smart Public Policies Developing a National Strategy or Roadmap to guide policy direction Lead by example Fostering markets through smart government procurement Empowering consumers by providing better access to energy usage information and tools Broadband, broadband, broadband 15 Establish incentives and rewards for investments in EE ICT
A Few Words About Broadband The International Telecommunications Union s s (ITU) Broadband Commission recently released its report, The Broadband Bridge: Linking ICT with Climate Action for a Low-Carbon Economy This report highlights the central role of more and faster broadband to realizing the promise of Green by IT or the macro story : Climate mitigation via transformational changes in the economy via the dematerialization of physical products and systems (travel substitution and e-products e and services) as well as smarter buildings, transport and systems Climate adaptation via enabling more and better climate modeling, weather information and disaster-response response capabilities
DESSC is: Digital Energy and Sustainability Solutions Campaign (DESSC) Coalition of industry, research organizations, NGOs Advance policies to drive sustainable growth through ICT enabled energy efficiency and clean energy innovation DESSC affiliates or partners in: DESSC US DESSC China EU (ICT4EE Forum) DESSC India Japan (Green IT Promotion Council) Established great website as macro story portal: http://www.digitalenergysolutions.org/ 17
*ITI serves as the host organization for DESC DESSC-US Partners
DESC China Partners 19
DESC China report ICT Promoting China Low Carbon Development Promotion Share with government agencies, MIIT, NDRC, AQSIQ and others; Promotion campaign with publishing on about 270 websites; Listed Top in Google and Baidu with searching word as ICT and Low Carbon ; Good feedback from multi channel. 20
UN Sustainable Energy for All In 2011, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched a new initiative, Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All),, which will engage governments, private sector, and civil society to achieve 3 major targets by 2030: Achieving universal access to modern energy services Doubling energy efficiency Doubling the share of global energy generated from renewable sources SE4All features a heavy emphasis on private sector engagement and partnerships across sectors and across governments/civil society UN developing best practices guidance for different industry sectors ICT guidance focuses heavily on implementing Green by ICT and the e macro story
ICTs for Sustainable Energy Partnership (ISEP)