The Programmable World Opportunities and Challenges Guillaume Mascot Head of Government Relations APJ & India March 2017 1 Nokia 2016
Megatrends are bringing the programmable world Network, compute & storage Internet of Things Augmented intelligence Human & machine interaction Social & trust economics Digitalization & ecosystems Broadband everywhere, distributed cloud, near infinite storage Connectivity for a trillion things Human assistance and task automation at machine scale Virtual and augmented reality, reshaping how we interact with machines Sharing economy and digital currencies making trust and security essential Digitalization of operations expanding into consumer and biology 2 Nokia 2017
4th Industrial Revolution is under way Artificial Intelligence, cloud, robotics, VR Social & human impact Economic flexibility & social mobility PCs, automation IT 5G Industrial change Mass production Mechanization Steam Electricity People & Things Driver Enabler 1770 1870 1970 2020 1 st Industrial revolution 2 nd Industrial revolution 3 rd Industrial revolution 4 th Industrial revolution 3 Nokia 2017
The Network will radically change New user demands with extremely diverse requirements example: 10-100 10000 Public x more devices >10 Gbps peak data rates Massive broadband Surveillance 100 Mbps average throughput x more traffic M2M ultra low cost Smart city cameras 10 years on battery Massive machine type communication (LTE-M) example: Smart Metering # of Devices Cost Power example: Traffic Management Critical machine type communication <1 ms latency (Low power) Wide area Crowd Outdoor Ultra-dense A trillion of devices with different needs GB transferred in an instant Mission-critical wireless control and automation 4 Nokia 2017 e2e Security Telco grade Reliability Service Flexibility Massive Scalability
Need to satisfy the IoT thirst for connectivity Unprecedented demand means a huge opportunity Numbers are according to Nokia Bell Labs and analyst researches Connected devices by 2020 Cellular IoTglobal daily connection requests by 2020 New, diverse and extreme requirements to existing networks Max potential value of sized applications in 2025 Up to 46 B Up to 135x $11Tn Forecast M2M CAGR (2014-2019) revenue Of IoTdata will go unused Of IoT applications Differentiation opportunities for mobile operators 27% ~90% 1,000s New 5 Nokia 2017
IoT services are very diverse Not all IoT devices and applications have the same connectivity requirements Uplink data Logistics Utilities Battery life Latency Module cost Activity Container tracking Smart City Gas metering Connected car Mobility Density Coverage Surveillance cameras Diverless control 6 Nokia 2017
The Programmable World Potential Use Case Evolution Business driver Automotive 1.2 million lost lives -90% of crashes by human error Time & energy waste by traffic Industry to re-define mobility Health Aging societies -leveraging remote medical support 2030: 52 million deaths by non communicable diseases Events and tourism Tourism is 9.8% of world GDP with growing competition Event visitors expect better connectivity and apps LTE Advanced LTE Advanced Pro Assisted driving Vehicle hazard warnings HD location updates and situational awareness for intelligent vehicles Automated traffic and parking steering Predictive health surveillance Remote diagnostic surveillance and risk assessment Early disease forecasting Augmented location experience Location finder Multicast Video replay on-demand Augmented reality 5G Automated driving Cooperative advanced cruise control Vehicle Platooning Smart intersection control Dynamic environment zones Remote treatment Robot assisted examination and tele-consultation in 4D and 5D Remote surgeries Freely selectable 3D views Freepoint viewing Player perspective Virtual reality 7 Nokia 2017
The Programmable World Potential Use Case Evolution Business driver Industry 4.0 50% higher productivity Mass individualization Defragmentation of communication systems Homes and buildings Cost efficient multi Gbps access deployment Efficiency and security gains, a multi B market Mega cities Public safety, efficient energy supply and traffic management for dense urban population LTE Advanced LTE Advanced Pro Cognitive maintenance Sensor connectivity for monitoring and predictive maintenance Augmented (AR-supported) maintenance VR supported plant planning Building management Energy management Home security Home maintenance: notification of leaks, smoke or high water levels Public safety and supply Mission control for public safety Video Surveillance Connected mobility across all means of transport Environment monitoring Public parking and traffic steering 5G Artificially intelligent production Common communication platform for all manufacturing use cases Wireless zero latency robot collaboration Autonomous vehicles in warehouses Super-efficient home UHDmedia to every home Home automation Super efficient mega cities Intelligent traffic infrastructure Surveillance drones Tourism AR/VR 8 Nokia 2017
IoT Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) technologies Existing NW evolution and Disruptive technologies SIGFOX LoRa CIoT (CleanSlate) NB-IoT (Rel. 13) emtc (LTE-M) (Rel. 13) EC-GSM (Rel. 13) 5G (targets) Range Max.Coupling Loss Spectrum Bandwidth <12km 160 db Unlicensed 900MHz 100Hz <10km 157 db Unlicensed 900MHz <500kHz <15km 164 db Licensed 7-900MHz 400 khz <15km 164 db Licensed 200kHz in-band, guard-band, stand-alone <10km 156 db Licensed 1.4MHz in-band <15km 164 db Licensed 8-900MHz 200kHz <12km 160 db Licensed Data rate <100bps <50kbps <150kbps <40-50kbps <1Mbps 10kbps <1Mbps Module cost 4.00$ (2015) 2.64$ (2020) Network cost, US example Impact on networks 10 $/year/km 2 (new HW) 4.00$ (2015) 2.64$ (2020) 10 $/year/km 2 (new HW) 4.00$ (2015) 2.64$ (2020) 12 $/year/km 2 (new HW) Large Large LARGE (totally new RAT) 4$ (2015) 2-3$ (2020) 1 $/year/km 2 (SW upgrade) Small to Moderate 5.00$ (2015) 3.30$ (2020) 1 $/year/km 2 (SW upgrade) 4.5$ (2015) 2.97$ (2020) 1 $/year/km 2 (SW upgrade) <$2 <1 $/year/km 2 Small Moderate Requires 5G NWs 9 Nokia 2017
Service providers are embarking on NB-IoT around the world 24 Operators are committed to deploying NB-IoT 20 Commercial NB-IoT Networks are forecasted by end of 2017 by GSA 10 Nokia 2016 Source: GSA, June 2016
IoT and Future Networks: Key policy domains Connectivity & spectrum Standardization Net Neutrality Data protection / ownership / location Security Digital Skills 11 Nokia 2017
12 Nokia 2016