FORGING A TRUE GLOBAL CONNECTION - BROADBAND PASSES 500 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS Laurie Adams Gonzalez Marketing Director Broadband Forum September 20, 2010
It has only taken 11 years to get to half a billion fixed broadband lines. The internet and all that it brings has taken hold like no technology since the invention of fire. It has brought the world closer together, improved health and education standards and introduced an era of cooperation and information sharing that will hasten economic growth and improve standards of living for potentially billions around the world. Oliver Johnson, CEO of Point Topic
Global Highlights Global broadband subscribers reached 498 million lines (497,768,162) by the end of June 2010 A 2.63% growth in the quarter and 11.99% in the last 12 months to end of Q2 2010 Point Topic estimates we passed the 500 M mark around the third week of 3Q10 Global IPTV subscription reached 38.5 million Over 2.3 million new IPTV subscribers added Q210
Broadband growth continues in all regions China the powerhouse of global broadband in the 21st century so far was responsible for 43% of all net broadband lines added in Q2 2010 and performed far better than the same quarter in 2009 In Western Europe many markets did better than the equivalent 2009 quarter. Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland and Turkey amongst others all reported strong numbers Central and South American markets have cooled to an extent but many are still reporting good quarterly growth (in the 5%-7% range) However North America, the USA (85.8 M) and in particular Canada (10.2 M) have significantly slowed
Regional Breakdown
12 Month Broadband Growth for Top 10 Countries
IPTV Report
IPTV taking root in more countries Strong growth in IPTV subscribers- Over 2.3 million new IPTV subscribers added Q2 10 Over 38.5 million people using IPTV world-wide by the end of Q2 2010 The growth is in line with broadband growth so the proportion of the world s broadband lines carrying IPTV remains the same as Q1 at 7.7%. Europe- most established region for IPTV with almost 19 million subscribers, of which almost half are in France. China (with Hong Kong and Macau) had the most net additions this quarter 421,000 ranking it second, with USA in third place with almost 6.5 million subscribers. China dominates the Asian IPTV market with over 5.5 million IPTV subscribers India showing enormous potential, but is just at the start of IPTV deployment Services are also developing in other areas as well. For example, Colombia reported over 100,000 subscribers for the first time in Q2 2010
IPTV Regional Breakdown
Top 10 IPTV Countries Country 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q2 France 7,490,000 9,018,305 9,400,750 China 4,762,000 6,337,000 6,758,000 USA 4,720,631 6,071,898 6,485,374 South Korea 1,649,725 2,576,663 2,909,136 Japan 1,465,413 1,861,127 1,960,743 Germany 861,000 1,520,400 1,633,200 Belgium 589,000 814,000 868,000 Spain 709,188 824,520 835,300 Italy 822,000 825,000 824,514 Sweden 460,000 692,000 715,000
Technology Breakdown
Regional Headlines
Asia Highlights China (including mainland, Hong Kong and Macau territories) is the most rapidly growing market in the top 10 broadband countries China is responsible for 43% of all the broadband lines added in the world in Q2 2010 China is growing 6 times as fast as the next largest broadband country- the USA China has now moved to second place in the list of top 10 IPTV countries by subscriber overtaking the USA in Q2 2010. Now adding subscribers 5 times as rapidly as France it is likely to be the leading IPTV market in the world in 2011. Although China dominates the story in Asia it is by no means the only market where there is movement. Example: Malaysia growth is more than twice what it was in Q209 compared to Q210. India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan and Thailand are all growing rapidly and sustainably. Elsewhere soft numbers in Japan and South Korea again reflect a relative level of saturation. There continues to be significant technology substitution with for example the drop of 600k DSL lines in Japan being more than offset by the increase in fiber subscribers.
Middle East & Africa Many countries in Africa are reporting strong broadband growth with Egypt leading the way in growth terms adding just under 100k lines in the quarter equal to 9% quarterly growth. Turkey, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Senegal, Bahrain all showed strong positive growth in the quarter resulting in an improved performance in Q2 2010 set against the same period in 2009. IPTV is also establishing a foothold and is in the early stages of growth and penetration in markets like Egypt, Qatar and the UAE. Africa s connectivity is improving rapidly with a number of undersea cables either just completed or coming on stream in the next couple of years. This will take the continents data capacity to more than 16 terabits in 2012 up from practically zero in 2000. This will have a significant effect on broadband tariffs in the region and should see increased take-up in the coming years.
Europe The markets in Europe are still recovering from the global financial problems. That said the region as a while improved on its performance in Q2 2009. Strong numbers were reported by Germany, Italy the UK and Spain and there are patches of brighter light in Poland and Slovakia and the Baltic states Much of northern Europe are also improving and growing strongly once more. Europe is still the dominant IPTV region in the world with France continuing to lead the way. it is worth highlighting the strong performance in Poland with IPTV growth well over twice that of broadband lines. While take-up ceilings are affecting growth in some markets there is plenty of headroom left outside the early adopters and with broadband in the EU to be available to all by 2020, according to the commission stated goals, services enabled by broadband, like IPTV, will have be a significant factor in Europe s online development in the next few years.
Americas The numbers reported from the American continent show a major north/ south divide. FTTx in the USA has surged, adding almost 350k fiber lines representing a growth rate of almost 6% indicates a growing trend of technology substitution. The USA and Canada have had a slow quarter in terms of broadband lines added, with Canada having its slowest period since 2000. This can be at least partly attributed to the end of many of the stimulus initiatives implemented by the authorities in these territories. IPTV subscriber numbers are growing faster than the number of broadband subscribers in the North American territories. In Central and South America, there is still strong growth in these emerging markets and improvement is expected through 2010. Paraguay, Uruguay and Colombia all did well in Q2 2010 while powerhouses of the region, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil are all robust if unspectacular. IPTV is also starting to make headway in the limited number of markets that there are large scale deployments 2010 could be a banner year for Colombia and Mexico.
Where do we go from here?
How do we reach the next 500M? E2E multi-service supporting architecture Include IPv6 integration support MPLS core & access aggregation Flexible interface to local loop which could be fiber, DSL, cable or wireless user connections More Sophisticated Remote Management IPv6 numbered device support Clear Data Models for Smart metering, Connected Home & Broadband Business devices and gateways Enhanced visibility and trouble shooting capabilities More Interoperability and Choice At the core and in Mobile Backhaul applications Local loop system and chipsets Within the Home Network More efficient network operations Automated optimization of DSL transmission parameters by the application of DSL Quality Management Standards for transparent access from network management systems to managed network elements Final requirements for Exponential Growth Better business cases for SPs to be incented to roll out Government/regulatory policies that encourages network providers to expand and improve their broadband networks. Stimulus funds and incentives can help but minimizing regulatory burdens on network providers may have a greater impact. Educated consumers and businesses about the value of BB to their world Policy placing priority on basic broadband service to unserved areas; not requiring extreme bit rates.
Check out our latest White Papers NEW! TR-069 Deployment Scenarios (PDF Download) August 2010 Use of MPLS in LTE (PDF Download) February 2010 BroadbandSuite 3.0 Companion Guide (PDF Download) September 2009 Energy Efficiency, Dematerialization and the Role of the Broadband Forum (PDF Download) September 2009 Next Generation Broadband Access (PDF Download) August 2009
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