options (alternatives)

)! "!#$% #!&! '#($ * +,-./012-3/,-/ 452363/,7,89:636 ; <=>?@ABCDE=F@GGH>IJ@KLGMLBH=>JL>LGNCHC ; O@?HCH=> PQ=RG@EST=GKH>IDTBLI@C ; U@GLBH=> =V O W B= C=E@ =BX@Q O H C?HAGH>@C * 452363/,YZ8[3,\ 1,05. ],25.-83,-: ; O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@QTBQH?B `>?@ QBLH>BN a bcdefegh ijklc a mjnegof bcdefegh pneqcnej ; O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@Q U H C_ a rstcdqcu mjloc a vchfeqeweqx yhjlxfef š z{ }~} ƒ ~}~ 7 9350 452363/, ˆ5/.:./Š3056 8.8Œ5 /.[ /. 8,89:Ž3,\ 052363/,./ 95Œ6 : * 6-.12-1.3,\ 8,0.58[3,\-ˆ5Œ 0/, 3,-/ Œ/.5 Œ8,8\58 95 8.-6 * 5 9323-9: 2/,6305.3,\ -ˆ5 ; A=CCHRG@ LGB@Q>LBHK@CJ ; LKLHGLRG@ H>V=QELBH=> ; M>?@QBLH>BH@C H>K=GK@FJL>F ; Q@G@KL>B AQ@V@Q@>?@C * 2/Œ 3,3,\-ˆ565-/ 8..3Š5 8- / -3Œ89 /. \//0 052363/,6 options (alternatives) goals (objectives) FIND the option that best satisfies the goals RANK options according to the goals ANALYSE, JUSTIFY, EXPLAIN,, the decision œ ž Ÿ ž options EVALUATION ª ªÀ å àýááôôâ ÑÒÓÔÕÖ ãäûþ ßÙ ÒÙÖÛÒÓÔÕÖ ¹ ºª» ¼ºº ª½ º ¾ºª ªº ¹ÀÁ ÑÒÓÔÕÖ ÔÒÖ EVALUATION MODEL ANALYSIS ª««hwcfq± ²³ µ cqonh ØÙÕÖÕ ÚÛÕÜÕ ÚÔÕÝÞÖÕ ÂÃÄÅÆÇÈÉ ÊÈËÌÄÌÉÍÆ ÎÌÏÉËÐÐ

ž cars buying maint safety doors PRICE TECH CAR pers COMF lug problem decomposition ²ç³è µéêµ ë ëçìíìîïð ë ñ íòççïóçêµîïôëóõöì µèóîëìóð õóóøéùùôôôúûüèµýëµôú çüùîèóë ïµ þ ³ÿú ü îèóë ïµ û Ÿ INTELLIGENCE L?B H>FH>I PQ=RG@E AA=QBM> HBN T@>CH>I W>LGNCHC AG=QLBH=> Identify decision situation and understand objectives Identify alternatives DESIGN =QEMGLBH=> =V T=GMBH=>C @>@ QLBH=> =V WGB@Q>LBHK@C ^=F@GGH>I THEMGLBH=> Decompose and model problem structure uncertainty preferences CHOICE WGB@ Q>LBHK@ T@G@?BH=> =LG ^LHEHLBH=> O@?HCH=> ^L_H>I EAG@E@>BLBH=> Sensitivity Analyses Choose best alternative Implement Decision ž OTTJ O TT a ngot bcdefegh ngdcff 8] 12342252 U ^T IJKLMN XUYYLLZ 6227 189 TJ ^~ WQJQNSJKLMN [\SV a ^olqe_pneqcnej IJKLMNOLJN a ojleqjqewc `tqeaefjqegh PQMNM RSMTM RLMUVNM ^olqe_yqqnekoqc a efb yhjlxfef jhu veaoljqegh!"#$%&' ()**+,,- ^guclf cjxcfejh dcqegnbf :;<=>?@AB@CD<DAE> FDGACHH.$&/0" a ^jnbgw ^gucllehf h s ijklkmn op qril g y tuvpn wknx t rukz{vkuivkp pvukpr s v}ivknx ^jq cajqedjlƒylfcknjedƒ vqjqe fqedjl ^gucllehf a yddgohqehf ƒ ehjhdejl ^gucllehf ^=F@ GGH>I ž ž 452363/, 1 /.- Z/05993,\ 452363/, 7,89:636 æ

š 1 /65-ˆ8- /,5 Œ16-2ˆ//65 5-55, 65Š5.89 Š Œ Ž Š ŽŒ Š Ž Œ ž ˆ * š ŽŒ Š Ž Œ * ˆ5 œš Œ ŒŠ Œ / 2ˆ//63,\ 582ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 0562.3 50 3-ˆ 8 Šž Œ,1Œ 5. 5 \./ 3- Ÿ 9/66 3, /. 8\\.5\8-50Š8915 ˆ32ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5-/ 2ˆ//65 Ÿ O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@ QTBQH?B `>?@QBLH>BN ª«ª ± ² ª«µ ³ ¹ ³ µ 1 m θ a 1... a m θ 1 y 11... y 1m : : : θ n y n1... y nm O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@Q U H C_ ª«ª º ª»» ¼ θ ½½ ³ ± ² ª«µ ³ ¹ ³ µ 1 m θ P(θ) a 1... a m θ 1 p(θ 1 ) y 11... y 1m : : : : θ n p(θ n ) y n1... y nm ¾ š W EL>MVL?BMQH>I?=EAL>NJVL?@F ÀHBX L A=CCHRG@ H>?Q@LC@ H> F@EL>F V=QHBC AQ=FM?BJ?=>CHF@QC BX@ V=GG=ÀH>ID ÁÂÃÄÅÆÇÃÈÉÄÊD Ë Ì ÍÎ Ï ÎÐÍ ÑÐÒ D>=?XL>I@ Ó Ì Ô Õ ÎÔÖ D@B@>F H>I BX@HQAQ=FM?BH=> GH>@ RMNH>I L >@À EL?XH>@ Ø Ì ÙÐÚ Û DRM HGFH>I L >@À AQ=FM?BH=> XLGG ÀHBX >@À @ÜMHAE@>B Ý Ì ÞÒÒ ß Ô àï ÎÔ DVH>FH>I LFFHBH=>LG RMCH>@CC ALQB@QC V=QAQ=FM?BH=> áæâäåãçèæãã ÈÆÉäÂÉÄåD ^LQ_@B Q@L?BH=>DLVB@QBX@ F@?HCH=>JBX@ CLG@C?L> ÚÖÞ à Ô Ï ÍÔ =Q ÔÞ à Ô Ï ÍÔæ çäæêäèéäæâäêd êõß ÔÞÎÔ ßà ÒëÚÎ JCX=À> H> F@?HCH=> BLRG@ => BX@ >@B CGHF@ ¾ š 452363/,-8 95 ìíîïðñìîòóï ôõöõ ô ø ù úûõúüý þ ÿ ý ùù ú öõú ýú úöôúý ôö úô ÿü úöôúý ôö úô ž ˆ

* 4/Œ3,8,25 * 5663Œ36-32 Z8 3Œ3, 89 06 * -3Œ36-32 Z8 3Œ8 * 1. 32Ž6 * 8 98256 * Z3,3Œ8 5\.5- š * ˆ//65-ˆ5 89-5.,8-3Š5 3-ˆ 56-2/,6515,256 3, 899 6-8-56 / -ˆ5 /.90 * 12ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 36 6590/Œ /1,0 ìíîïðñìîòóï ôõöõ ô ø ù úûõúüý þ ÿ ý ùù ú öõú ýú úöôúý ôö úô ÿü úöôúý ôö úô!"#!$ %$ &$! š ' ¾ ž( ž š ) ) * *82ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 36.5.565,-50 : 3-6 +œ Ž /663 95 2/,6515,25 * 722/.03,\-/-ˆ565 -ˆ5 89-5.,8-3Š5 3-ˆ -ˆ5,Œ Ž /.6-2865 36 2ˆ/65, -./012 - /340 5 6768 5 9 8: ;<6;= >?8@A> B::C;D76; >;BD;7 5 ;> 5 7 F MO L A; 5 E EG H I JK MNL @=BD;7 5 ;> 5 7 JK J A; 5 GE GG G PQRRSTSRU VW VX YZ [\ ] š ' š ) * *82ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 36.5.565,-50 : 3-6,Œ Ž /663 95 2/,6515,25 * ˆ5 89-5.,8-3Š5 /. ˆ32ˆ -ˆ36,Œ Ž 2/,6515,25 36 56-36 2ˆ/65, -./012 - /340 5 6768 5 9 8: ;<6;= >?8@A> B::C;D76; >;BD;7 5 ;> 5 7 F MO L A; 5 E EG H I JK MNL @=BD;7 5 ;> 5 7 JK J A; 5 GE GG G ^_USTSRU [\ XV XX [X ` a b( ` a b( * +,-./0125 8 8.8Œ5-5. d c d ef * /Œ 3,5-3Œ36-32 8,0 5663Œ36-32 2.3-5.386/-ˆ8- u = du + ( 1 d) u h o p g hijkl g imnj o pqpr o s rt extend uvpuw x yrz{x tt}u~qpu build xu ~uq o ux o q {u o ƒ 20 cooperate 10 ˆ zw ~uq o ux o q {u o Š ŒŒ Ž Œ 0 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 Ž Œ š œ ž Ÿ d d Evaluation of Alternatives (Hurwiz) 50 40 30 status quo

( * /,6305. 899 6-8-56 5Š5,-6 51899: 93[59: * -ˆ16 2/,6305. -ˆ5 Œ žœ / /1-2/Œ56 /. 582ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 g hijkl g imnj o pqpr o s rt uvpuw x yrz{x tt}u~qpu xu ~uq o ux o q {u o ƒ ˆ zw ~uq o ux o q {u o ª «š ˆ5 rij /.-ˆ5 89-5.,8-3Š5 aj 3, 6-8-5 θi 36 5189 -/ -ˆ5 03 5.5,25 5-55,-ˆ5 56-89-5.,8-3Š5 3, \3Š5, 6-8-5 8,0 m θi aj rij = max{ yik} yij k = 1 ˆ//65 -ˆ5 89-5.,8-3Š5 ˆ8Š3,\-ˆ5 9586- Œ8 3Œ1Œ.5\.5- g hijkl g imnj o pqpr o s rt uvpuw x yrz{x tt}u~qpu xu ~uq o ux o q {u ± ²³ ² o ±²µ ± µ ± ˆ zw ~uq o ux o q µµ {u ± µ µµ ± µ² ² µµ ± µµ o µµ ± µ ¹ º šš» ¼½¾ À» ½Á¾ à ÄÅÄÆ Ã Ç ÆÈ ÉÊÄÉË Ì ÍÆÎÏÌ ÐÈÈÑÉÒÅÄÉ ÌÉÐÒÉÅ Ã ÉÌ Ã Å Ô ÛÝ Ú ÏÉ Ã Ó ÓÕ Ö ØÙ ÛÜÚ ÎËÐÒÉÅ Ã ÉÌ Ã Å ØÙ Ø ÏÉ Ã ÕÓ ÕÕ Õ Þßààáâáàã äå äæ çè éê ëìãáâáàã éê æä ææ éæ íîïðáñ ò d= óôõö äå è äø æ äæ æ éç ä ùúìûúüß äø éé éê éä ýßþïßã çæ è çæ çê ÿ * + :/1 5.5 -ˆ5 Œ8,8\5. ˆ32ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 /190 :/1-8[5 ˆ: * +6 -ˆ36.5899: -ˆ5 56-89-5.,8-3Š5 ˆ: ],05. ˆ32ˆ 23.21Œ6-8,256 3-36 56- * ˆ8-28, :/1 68: 8 /1- -ˆ5 Ž Ž œ 89-5.,8-3Š5 722/.03,\-/ -ˆ5 8,89:636 ˆ5,6ˆ/190 5 3- -8[5, /. 6ˆ/190 3-5 -8[5, 8-899 ÿ 766566 -ˆ5.565,- 50 052363/, 2.3-5.38 * 4562.3 5-ˆ5.5Š895,- 2ˆ8.82-5.36-326 / 582ˆ2.3-5.3/, * ˆ8-0/:/1 -ˆ3,[ 8 /1- -ˆ52.3-5.38 ; WQ@ BX@N?=EAQ@X@>CHRG@ ; WQ@ BX@N Q@LGHCBH? ; WQ@ BX@N MC@VMG V=QAQL?BH?@ ; XH?X HC N=MQVLK=MQHB@?QHB@QH=> * +6 -ˆ5.5 863,\95 56-2.3-5.3/, ˆ32ˆ 8,0 ˆ: ž

¾ š / 5 [,/ /. 56-3Œ8-5 -ˆ5 œ,, Ž / 6-8-56! "#$ "$! % &' % ( % ) *+,- "$!. &',- ) % )),) * Z/05 5952- -ˆ5 Œ/6-./ 8 956-8-5 * * 52-50/8915 */ * 52-50 Z/,5-8.: /8915 *Z/ ž ' ) 0 œ Z8 3Œ365-ˆ5 5 52-50 Š8915 93 1 23456 1 37849 1 349 :5;< 1 <7273= >?@?A> BAC DE?DFG HAIJG KCCLDM@?D GDKMD@>DG >@JD> N OP N Q NR S T UV IFKMD@>DG >@JD> W OP UV RN RR U R XYZ[\][^ c _`ab[ N N Q V + V cw O UVd c N O NR+ V ef cw O RN d c N S T + V gh ij cw O RR d V c N O UV + V gh ij cw O U R d ii n EVi = p(θ j )y j= 1 ji Expected value of alternatives 50 40 30 20 10 stable area 0 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 probability of increased sales status quo extend build cooperate expected probability of increased sales (75%) p P(θ) a 1 a 2 a 3 θ 1 2/9 8 4 20 θ 2 3/9 7 15 10 θ 3 4/9 6 5 0 HK@> BXHC F@?HCH=> BLRG@ D O@B@QEH>@ ÀXH?X LGB@ Q>LBHK@ HC R@CB L??=QFH>I B= LGG BX@?QHB@QHL ko=eh>l>?@j P@CCHEHCBH?J AB HEHCBH?J lmqàh k d=0.7m J ~LAGL?@J U@IQ@BJ ^=F@J A@?B@F nlgm@ mæ OQLÀ L?XLQB @KLGMLBH>I BX@ lmqàhoc?qhb@qh=> V=Q d [0,1]æ O= C@>CHBHKHBN L>LGNCHC æ 59 -ˆ5 8.Œ5. ˆ/ 36 052303,\ ˆ32ˆ 2./ -/ 98,- 3, -ˆ5 825 / 1,25.-83, 58-ˆ5. 8,0.5619-3,\2./ :3590 Weather probability.55.15 30 Normal Drought Rainy Plant soybeans $ 10 5 12 Plant corn 7 8 13 profit per acre

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