Digital Transforma/on Digital Technologies Digital Compe//on Digital Business Models Digital Organiza/ons Digital Work Dr. Holger Schmidt FOCUS Magazine Chief Correspondent Digital Economy Netzoekonom.de 16th February 2016, WirtschaLspoli/scher Club Deutschland, Berlin
The Digital Evolu/on User All Companies! Internet of Things Digital Products and Services Web 1.0 1995 Online- Retail 2000 Social Media 2005 Mobile/ Apps 2010 2015 2020 Time Source: MIT Center for Digital Business
Digital Technologies
Accelerated, reinforcing Technical Progress Mobile (5G- Networks 2020: >100 MB/s) SoLware (Machine Learning, AI, Big Data ) Sensors (10 Years: Price ê 100X) Robo/cs + 3D Printer
Opera/onal Stock of Industrial Robots In 100000 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2013 2014 2015 2018 China US / Canada Japan South Korea Germany Italy France Spain UK Source: Interna/onal Federa/on of Robo/cs
Digital Compe//on
The Tech Approach to disrupt Incumbents 1994 2010 Tech Approach SoLware- Innova/on + Hardware- Innova/on Customer Benefits Convenience Save Money Save Time Beker Products: Convenient Save Money Save Time Beker Design
Redefining Industry Boundaries Product + Service Ecosystem Increasing Compe//on (New entry points for Compe/tors) Lower Price Compe//on more Compe//on on Features and Services
The Train that never arrives too late Velaro (Barcelona - Madrid) 2,5 h for 625 Kilometer 15 Min Delay: Passengers get back full /cket price Combina/on of Sensors and Big Data Analy/cs (Teradata) allows replacement of Parts before they break (Predic/ve Maintenance) Result: No passenger got his money back
Disrup/on: Sales of Large Luxury Cars USA 2015 Tesla S 26566 Mercedes S- Klasse 21934 BMW 7 BMW 6 Audi A7 Mercedes CLS Audi A8 Porsche Panamera 9292 8146 7721 6142 4990 4985
Disrup/on: Growth of Large Luxury Cars US Change 2015/2014 in Percent Tesla S 43,76 BMW 7-4,6 Audi A7 BMW 6-5,1-5,8 Mercedes CLS - 11,9 Mercedes S- Klasse Porsche Panamera Audi A8-13,2-13,2-15,5 Coolness New Features / Maintenance via OTA Update Automated Produc/on / Giga Factory Price doesn t maker
Media Business
Important Sources of News Preferred News Source (EU/USA/AUS/JP) Quelle: Reuters Digital News Report 2015 Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι hs@netzoekonom.de 26 Februar 2016
Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι hs@netzoekonom.de 26 Februar 2016 Reading the news in a Newspaper 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 CAGR - 3,9-3,4-7,5-5,6 Akademiker 14 bis 64 Jahre Junge Akademiker (20-39) 20 bis 29 Jahre 10,0-6,7 14 bis 19 Jahre 0,0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Quelle: Allensbacher Computer- und Technikanalyse (ACTA) 2015
Bedeutung der Medien für Meinungsbildung der 14-64- Jährigen Anteil in Prozent 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 20,6 20,1 7,5 21,3 30,2 21,4 Radio Internet Zeitung 30% 20% 41,7 37,2 Fernsehen 10% 0% 2005 2015 Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von Ins/tut für Demoskopie Allensbach / ACTA 2015
Bedeutung der Medien für Meinungsbildung der 20-39jährigen Akademiker Anteil in Prozent 100% 90% 20,1 18,8 80% 70% 60% 14,6 33,6 Radio Internet 50% 31,2 40% 16,5 Zeitung 30% 20% 10% 33,9 31,2 Fernsehen 0% 2005 2015 Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von Ins/tut für Demoskopie Allensbach / ACTA 2015
Online- Nachrichtenquellen Gesamtbevölkerung Angaben in Prozent Tageszeitung (Website/App) 44,2 Portale (Website/App) 41,7 ZeitschriL (Website/App) Facebook 38,8 38,4 Y Wikipedia Fernsehsender (Website/App) 26,8 26,2 27,9 Radiosender (Website/App) 19,5 Anderes soziales Netzwerk Andere Internetangebote Andere Blogs 12,3 15,3 14,4 Twiker 6,3 Andere Videoportale 4 Quelle: TNS Infratest 2015
Online- Nachrichtenquellen 14 29- Jährige Angaben in Prozent Facebook 61,8 Y 49,3 ZeitschriL (Website/App) Tageszeitung (Website/App) 47 46,4 Fernsehsender (Website/App) Portale (Website/App) Wikipedia 29,5 29,1 32,3 Radiosender (Website/App) Anderes soziales Netzwerk Andere Blogs Andere Internetangebote 19,8 17,7 15,6 13 Twiker Andere Videoportale 4,2 3,4 Quelle: TNS Infratest 2015
Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι hs@netzoekonom.de 26 Februar 2016 Auflagenentwicklung (Abo/EV) der F.A.Z. 350,0 300,0 70,6 250,0 0,9 200,0 66,3 62,6 60,0 58,8 56,7 1,3 1,6 1,9 2,1 2,4 54,9 3,1 51,5 5,5 48,9 13,2 45,1 20,2 40,0 25,0 Einzelverkauf Abo e- Paper 150,0 Abo- Print 100,0 243,9 234,6 231,0 232,0 228,8 225,6 221,6 212,0 199,7 182,7 166,4 50,0 0,0 Q3/2005 Q3/2006 Q3/2007 Q3/2008 Q3/2009 Q3/2010 Q3/2011 Q3/2012 Q3/2013 Q3/2014 Q3/2015 Quelle: IVW
Umsatzquellen deutscher Zeitungen In Milliarden Euro 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Vertriebserlöse Digital Vertriebserlöse Print Online- Werbung Print- Werbung 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Quelle: PWC, ZAW, BDZV
Online- Werbung in Deutschland Umsatz der Anbieter in Milliarden Euro 7 6 5 4 3 2 Andere Unternehmen Suchmaschinen FachzeitschriLen PublikumszeitschriLen Zeitungen 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Quelle: PWC, BDZV
Digitaliza/on of Industries Short Fuse, Big Bang Telco, Media Business Impact Long Fuse, Big Bang Retail Banks Insurance Educa/on Manufactoring Health Real Estate Energy Transporta/on Time Chemistry, Mining, Oil, Gas Short Fuse, Quiet Bang Long Fuse, Quiet Bang Source: Deloike Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι hs@netzoekonom.de 26 Februar 2016
Digital Business Models
The Path of Digitaliza/on: Germany starts at the wrong end Industry 4.0 Customer needs (Current needs/ Future needs) Digitaliza/on of Products / Services Digitaliza/on of Produc/on no no no Business Model?
Plazorm Economy Customer Company/Provider 10 of the 20 most valuable listed Companies in the World are Plazorms
Plazorm Companies by Type Bubble Size represents Market Cap December 1, 2015 Source: Global Plazorm Survey. The Center for Global Enterprise
Das Amazon- Modell Source: FT
Tech- Giants at the Stock Exchange The 10 most valuable listed Companies of the World ($B) 1995 2005 2015 Nippon Telegraph 136 ExxonMobil 401 Apple 657 GE 107 GE 357 Google 516 Exxon 104 Johnson & J. 288 MicrosoL 431 Coca- Cola 90 MicrosoL 274 ExxonMobil 338 Toyota 87 BP 250 Berkshire 332 Philip Morris 71 Time Warner 241 Amazon 316 Roche 70 Ci/group 235 GE 306 Industrial Bank Japan 69 Royal Dutch Shell 230 Facebook 298 Merck 69 Pfizer 184 Wells Fargo 283 Royal Dutch 68 Wal- Mart 182 Johnson & J. 283 Tech- Share Of Top 10 O% 1O% 58% Source: Yahoo Finance
Dax 30 vs Big 4 Market Cap (December 23 2015, $B) 1800 1600 Facebook 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Bayer SAP Daimler Siemens Deutsche Telekom Allianz VW BASF BMW Con/nental Henkel Fresenius Deutsche Post Deutsche Bank Munich Re Linde Fresenuis Medical Care Beiersdorf Adidas Eon Infineon Deutsche Börse HeidelbergCement Vonovia Commerzbank Merck ThyssenKrupp RWE LuLhansa K+S Amazon Google Apple Source: Bloomberg
Digital Organiza/ons
Digital Transforma/on works only Top- Down CEO
Digital Work
The End of Rou/ne Tasks Ar/ficial Intelligence (Machine Learning) will replace many Rou/ne Jobs, first /me in the offices. (Accountants, Controller, IT- Admins, Analysts, Lawyers) 45 Percents of all Tasks can be fully automated Large increase of Labour Produc/vity Germany: 5 Million Jobs can be fully automated
Impact of Industry 4.0 on Jobs in Germany Changes in Manufacturing in 2025 in Percent - 490 000 Jobs IT and Science Jobs Lawyers, Management Jobs Media, Humani/es, Arts Construc/on, Plas/c Merchants Teacher, Professor Retail Merchants Cleaning Disposal Security Guard Services Social Professions Health Professionals Office / Commercial Jobs Traffic / Logis/cs Gastronomy Raw Materials Technical Jobs Assistants Repair Metal Construc/on, Electrical Machine and Plant Control 0,31-0,01-0,17-0,69-0,78-1,00-2,46 0,51-2,98-4,77 1,06 1,10 0,91 0,94-12,79 1,89 1,85 1,51 3,00 3,78 + 430 000 Jobs - 14,00-12,00-10,00-8,00-6,00-4,00-2,00 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 Source: IAB Forschungsbericht 8 / 2015
You go to Bed as an Industry Company and you wake up as a So8ware Company Jeffrey Immelt / GE
Ques/ons? Dr. Holger Schmidt FOCUS Magazin Chief Correspondent Digital Economy Blog: Netzoekonom.de Kontakt: hs@netzoekonom.de Twiker: @HolgerSchmidt / @DigitalTrans_HS Linkedin: Linkedin.com/in/hoschmidt Facebook: Facebook.com/HolgerSchmidt