ARE WE HEADED INTO A RECESSION?
The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. -- 2001 International Journal of Forecasting I look forward to the day when economists manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people, on a level with dentists. -- John Maynard Keynes
Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth Forecast Four Quarters Prior vs. Actual 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Recession Forecast (Four Quarters Prior) Actual '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and United States Bureau of Economic Analysis
Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth Forecast Four Quarters Prior vs. Actual 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Recession Forecast (Four Quarters Prior) Actual '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and United States Bureau of Economic Analysis
Forecasts: Short Term Reliability United States GDP Growth Forecasts (Calendar Years) Percent Change from Previous Year September Forecasts for Following Year January Forecasts for Predicted Year May Forecasts for Predicted Year Source: The Economist
Forecasts: Short Term Reliability GDP Growth Forecasted Difference From Actual Growth for 2000-2017 The Economist Poll of Forecasters Average Growths, 15 Rich-World Countries Source: The Economist
Economic Expansions in the U.S. 1945-48 1949-53 1954-57 1958-60 1961-69 1970-73 1975-80 1980-81 1982-90 1991-01 2001-07 2009-19 Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 June 2019 would mark the longest economic expansion in modern history Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Wall Street Journal, Applied Analysis
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis 74 Franklin Nat l BK 82 LatAm Debt Annual GDP Growth and Financial Events Recession 87 Stock Market Crash Annual GDP Growth 90 S&L Crisis 00 Tech Bubble 07 Subprime Crisis '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18
Comparative Analysis of Periods of Expansion and Real GDP Growth Trough Peak Duration (Qtrs.) Real GDP Compound Annual Growth Rate Q4 1949 Q2 1953 15 7.6% Q2 1958 Q2 1960 9 5.5% Recent Expansion has experienced the slowest GDP growth in history Q4 1970 Q4 1973 13 5.1% Q1 1961 Q4 1969 36 4.9% Q3 1980 Q3 1981 5 4.3% Q1 1975 Q1 1980 21 4.3% Q4 1982 Q3 1990 32 4.3% Q2 1954 Q3 1957 14 4.0% Q1 1991 Q1 2001 41 3.6% Q4 2001 Q4 2007 25 2.9% Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and Applied Analysis Q2 2009 To Date 37 2.3% Average 22 4.4%
Market Volatility Index (VIX) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Recession VIX Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
RECESSION IS INEVITABLE
1 Debt 2 End to Aggressive Monetary Policies 3 Prolonged Government Shutdown 4 International Trade Instability 5 Global Housing Crisis 6 Global Conflict
1 Debt 2 End to Aggressive Monetary Policies 3 Prolonged Government Shutdown 4 International Trade Instability 5 Global Housing Crisis 6 Global Conflict
Public Debt as a Percent of GDP 120% 100% 104.2% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Debt Trends In Trillions Corporate Debt Consumer Debt Student Debt $7.0 $4.5 $1.8 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $5.0 $6.2 $4.0 $3.5 $4.0 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1.6 $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $3.0 $2.5 $1.0 $0.8 $0.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System $2.5 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 $2.0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 $0.4 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
THE FUNDAMENTALS
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Fastest Growing State in the Nation #1 Nevada Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2017 vs. 2018) Population Growth Lower Higher Rank State Annual Growth 1 Nevada +2.09% 2 Idaho +2.05% 3 Utah +1.87% 4 Arizona +1.74% 5 Florida +1.54% 6 Washington +1.48% 7 Colorado +1.42% 8 Texas +1.34% 9 South Carolina +1.25% 10 North Carolina +1.10% US Average +0.62%
Pittsburgh, PA Chicago, IL St. Louis, MO Detroit, MI Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Baltimore, MD Philadelphia, PA San Francisco, CA Cincinnati, OH San Diego, CA Boston, MA Miami, FL Kansas City, MO Washington, DC Minneapolis, MN Portland, OR Riverside, CA Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Houston, TX Atlanta, GA Seattle, WA Tampa, FL Phoenix, AZ San Antonio, TX Charlotte, NC Dallas, TX Las Vegas, NV Orlando, FL Population Growth Largest 30 MSAs 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2016 vs. 2017)
Driver s License Surrenders To Nevada By State State Surrenders Share California 27,275 35.9% Florida 4,668 6.1% Texas 3,607 4.7% Arizona 3,433 4.5% Illinois 2,878 3.8% Washington 2,825 3.7% Hawaii 2,518 3.3% 20,000 or more 3,000 to 19,999 1,900 to 2,999 700 to 1,899 Under 700 Colorado 2,339 3.1% Utah 2,188 2.9% Source: UNLV CBER Note: Based on driver s license surrenders from the DMV for the latest available trailing 12-month data. New York 2,029 2.7%
Primary Reason for Moving to Nevada 46.1% 29.3% 17.7% 12.6% 5.6% Job Retirement Lifestyle Family Health Income of Newcomers $0 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or More Source: United Van Lines National Movers Survey
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Fastest Job Growth in the Nation #1 Nevada Employment Growth Lower Higher Rank State Annual Growth 1 Nevada +3.8% 2 Arizona +3.3% 3 Washington +3.2% 4 Utah +3.1% 5 Texas +3.1% 6 Wyoming +2.9% 7 Colorado +2.8% 8 Florida +2.7% 9 Georgia +2.6% 10 New Hampshire +2.6% U.S. Average +1.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
Detroit, MI Pittsburgh, PA San Antonio, TX Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Chicago, IL Kansas City, MO St. Louis, MO Minneapolis, MN Washington, DC Tampa, FL Sacramento, CA Philadelphia, PA Boston, MA San Diego, CA Riverside, CA Charlotte, NC Denver, CO Baltimore, MD Miami, FL San Francisco, CA Cincinnati, OH Portland, OR Atlanta, GA Dallas, TX Seattle, WA Las Vegas, NV Houston, TX Phoenix, AZ Orlando, FL Employment Growth Largest 30 MSAs 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
Thousands Employment Las Vegas MSA 1,100 Present: 1,026,900 1,000 900 800 700 600 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 500 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Employment Growth Las Vegas MSA Year-over-Year 10% 5% 90 Consecutive Months of Positive Growth 0% -5% -10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -15% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Employment Growth Las Vegas MSA Last 12 Months Leisure and Hospitality 7,900 Government 5,700 Construction 5,500 Professional and Business Services 4,900 Education and Health Services 4,900 Other Services 1,800 Financial Activities 1,400 Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Mining and Logging 0 1,000 800 Net Job Growth: +33,900 Information 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
Unemployment Rate 16% Variance Las Vegas MSA United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Changing the Employment Base Sector 2000 2018 Net Growth Professional and Business Services 76,600 142,000 +65,400 Education and Health Services 43,000 104,100 +61,100 Leisure and Hospitality 235,700 292,800 +57,100 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 129,000 186,100 +57,100 Government 74,200 112,400 +38,200 Other Services 18,900 33,400 +14,500 Financial Activities 39,300 52,300 +13,000 Manufacturing 20,600 24,500 +3,900 Construction 66,900 67,900 +1,000 Mining and Logging 500 400-100 Information 13,200 11,000-2,200 Total 717,900 1,026,900 +309,000
Changing the Employment Base Sector Net Job Growth (2000 vs. 2018) Share Change Professional and Business Services +65,400 +3.2% Education and Health Services +61,100 +4.1% Leisure and Hospitality +57,100-4.3% Trade, Transportation and Utilities +57,100 +0.2% Government +38,200 +0.6% Other Services +14,500 +0.6% Financial Activities +13,000-0.4% Manufacturing +3,900-0.5% Construction +1,000-2.7% Mining and Logging -100 +0.03% Information -2,200-0.8% 2000 2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
More Diversified Diversifying the Job Market 75 Las Vegas Hachman Index 70 65 60 55 50 45 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Applied Analysis
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Fastest Growing Personal Income Personal Income Growth Rank State Quarterly Growth Annualized Growth 1 Nevada +1.52% +6.21% 2 Washington +1.51% +6.16% 3 Arizona +1.33% +5.42% #1 Nevada 4 Colorado +1.29% +5.27% 5 New Hampshire +1.25% +5.12% Lower Higher 6 Oregon +1.25% +5.10% 7 Utah +1.17% +4.75% 8 Pennsylvania +1.16% +4.71% 9 Texas +1.14% +4.65% 10 North Dakota +1.14% +4.63% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q2 2018 vs. Q3 2018)
Average Weekly Hours Nevada By Sector 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Construction 37.5 Hrs Financial Activities 35.9 Hrs. Prof. & Business Svcs. 35.5 Hrs. Trade, Trans. & Util. 33.8 Hrs. Leisure & Hospitality 29.9 Hrs. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Weekly Earnings Nevada By Sector $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Construction $1,137 Financial Activities $965 Prof. & Business Svcs. $946 Trade, Trans. & Util. $659 Leisure & Hospitality $525
ARE WAGES KEEPING PACE WITH THE COST OF LIVING?
Cost of Living Index (COLI) vs. Average Weekly Wage Growth Southern Nevada 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 Cost of Living Index Average Weekly Wages Growth '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Council for Community and Economic Research 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
Average Weekly Wage vs. House Price Index (HPI) Growth Southern Nevada 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Average Weekly Wages - Private House Price Index -40% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Housing Opportunity Index Las Vegas MSA 100 90 88.7 80 70 60 50 47.6 40 30 20 13.0 Source: National Association of Homebuilders 10 0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
The Missing Middle 1 in 4 Southern Nevada Households Fall into the Missing Middle 186,000 Households 129,500 Family Households 72,700 Households with Children Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Applied Analysis
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Nevada Private Business by Class Size Private Businesses Clark County 50-99 Employees 2,112 20-49 Employees 6,737 More Than 100 Employees 1,702 54,685 10-19 Employees 9,787 48,214 5-9 Employees 13,271 Less Than 5 Employees 45,804 45,541 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 68% Clark County Share of Statewide Private Businesses 2006 2012 2018
Employment by Class Size Nevada 558,820 202,124 67,533 88,930 132,359 145,038 Less Than 5 Employees 5-9 Employees 10-19 Employees 20-49 Employees 50-99 Employees More Than 100 Employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Impact of $1 Billion Investment Indirect and Induced Job Impacts by Sector Advanced Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Sports & Entertainment 2,580 Jobs 4,470 Jobs 4,890 Jobs Construction Government Manufacturing Professional and Business Svcs. Education and Health Services Information Natural Resources and Mining Trade, Trans. and Utilities Financial Activities Leisure and Hospitality Other Services
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Wednesday, September 12, 2018 CRISIS AND CONSEQUENCES THE EPICENTER OF THE HOUSING BUST IS BOOMING AGAIN. (THAT S A WARNING SIGN.)
Home Closings Las Vegas Area 45,000 New Homes 70,000 Existing Homes 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 47,949 20,000 30,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 9,944 20,000 10,000 Source: SalesTraq 0 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 0 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
New Home Closings Las Vegas Area 45,000 40,000 38,705 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 3,793 9,944 Source: SalesTraq 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
New Home Market Share Las Vegas Area 50% 45% 45.7% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 6.1% 17.2% Source: SalesTraq 0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS CONCERNING, BUT WHERE DO WE STAND?
Median Home Prices Las Vegas Area $450,000 New Homes $410,000 $450,000 Existing Homes $400,000 $400,000 $350,000 $350,000 $300,000 $300,000 $265,000 $250,000 $250,000 $200,000 $200,000 $150,000 $150,000 $100,000 $100,000 Source: SalesTraq $50,000 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 $50,000 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Fastest House Price Appreciation #1 Nevada House Price Index Growth Lower Higher Rank State Growth 1 Nevada +15.0% 2 Idaho +13.0% 3 Utah +10.4% 4 Washington +9.9% 5 Colorado +9.8% 6 Florida +9.2% 7 Georgia +8.9% 8 Arizona +8.8% 9 California +8.6% 10 Tennessee +7.7% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)
Baltimore, MD Chicago, IL New York, NY St. Louis, MO Washington, DC Portland, OR Boston, MA Cincinnati, OH Pittsburgh, PA San Antonio, TX Philadelphia, PA San Diego, CA Houston, TX Minneapolis, MN Dallas, TX Charlotte, NC Kansas City, MO Sacramento, CA Riverside, CA Los Angeles, CA Detroit, MI Miami, FL Phoenix, AZ Denver, CO Orlando, FL Seattle, WA Atlanta, GA Tampa, FL San Francisco, CA Las Vegas, NV House Price Index Growth Largest 30 MSAs 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 18.1% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)
San Francisco, CA San Diego, CA Los Angeles, CA Seattle, WA Boston, MA Denver, CO New York, NY Washington, DC Portland, OR Sacramento, CA Riverside, CA Miami, FL Baltimore, MD Las Vegas, NV Minneapolis, MN Phoenix, AZ Orlando, FL Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Charlotte, NC Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Tampa, FL San Antonio, TX Atlanta, GA Kansas City, MO St. Louis, MO Cincinnati, OH Pittsburgh, PA Detroit, MI N/A N/A Single Family Median Home Price Largest 30 MSAs $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $294,600 Source: National Association of Realtors (Q3 2018) Note: Pittsburgh and Detroit not reported by the same source.
Growth in Values Since 2005 In Western States Montana Utah Idaho Washington Colorado Oregon Wyoming Alaska New Mexico Hawaii Arizona California Nevada 9% Source: National Association of Realtors (ACS and FHFA) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Nevada Homeowner s Equity Q3 2010 Q3 2014 Q3 2018 Under Water 69.6% Under Water 25.4% Under Water 4.7% Positive 30.4% Positive 74.6% Positive 95.3% Source: CoreLogic
Homeowner s Equity United States Nevada Under Water 4.1% Under Water 4.7% Positive 95.9% Positive 95.3% Source: CoreLogic
SUPPLY-DEMAND DYNAMICS WILL DICTATE FUTURE PERFORMANCE
Employment-Growth-to-Permit Ratio (E/P) 6 4 Las Vegas United States 2.84 2 0 1.95-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 -16-18 Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Census Bureau and Applied Analysis
Effective Months of Availability Multiple Listings Service (MLS) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 United States: 4.2 Months Southern Nevada: 3.3 Months 3.3 Source: SalesTraq '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Median Days on the Market Median Days 46 Days U.S. Average Median Days on the Market Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS, NAR Less Than 31 31 to 45 45 to 60 61 to 75 76 to 165
Median Days on the Market Las Vegas Area Single Family Market 60 50 December 2018: 26 Days December 2017: 19 Days 40 30 26.0 20 10 0 Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners Three Months Ago
Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners Two Months Ago
Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners One Month Ago
Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners Today
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Inventory by Market (Square Feet) Las Vegas Area In Millions 58 Office 130 Industrial 56 Retail 56 54 52 125 120 115 110 54 52 50 Source: Applied Analysis 50 48 46 44 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 105 100 95 90 85 80 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 48 46 44 42 40 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Vacancy Rate by Market Las Vegas Area Office Industrial Retail 26% 18% 14% 24% 22% 16% 14% 12% 20% 12% 10% 18% 10% 8% 16% 14% 17.7% 8% 6% 6.7% 6% 7.4% Source: Applied Analysis 12% '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 4% '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 4% '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Net Absorption (Square Feet) Las Vegas Area In Millions Office Industrial Retail 2.0 8 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2 Source: Applied Analysis -2.0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18-6 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18-0.4 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Under Construction and Planned Space (Square Feet) Las Vegas Area In Millions 12 Office Industrial Retail 16 16 10 14 14 8 12 10 12 10 6 8 8 4 2 6 4 2 6 4 2 Source: Applied Analysis 0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Planned Under Construction 0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: OFFICE
CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: OFFICE
CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: INDUSTRIAL
CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: INDUSTRIAL
CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: RETAIL
CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: RETAIL
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Billions Taxable Retail Sales Clark County Trailing 12-Month Total $50 $45 Present: $43.6B $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation
Taxable Retail Sale Growth Clark County Trailing 12-Month, Year-over-Year 20% 15% 10% 94 Consecutive Months of Positive Growth Source: Nevada Department of Taxation 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17
Taxable Retail Sale Growth Clark County Ten Largest Sectors 2017 vs. 2018 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods [6.1%] 12.2% Bldg. Material, Garden Equip. & Supplies [4.1%] 8.5% Health & Personal Care Stores [2.1%] Rental &Leasing Services [3.7%] Food & Beverage Stores [3.1%] General Merchandise Stores [8.2%] Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers [11.3%] Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores [7.8%] Electronics & Appliance Stores [2.5%] 6.2% 5.7% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 2.2% 1.1% Food Services & Drinking Places [23.8%] -2.8% Source: Nevada Department of Taxation (October 2017 vs. October 2018) Note: Excludes Miscellaneous Store Retailers sales due to classification changes.
Taxable Retail Sales Clark County Inflation-Adjusted Per Capita (2000=100) $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $13,081 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18e Source: Nevada Department of Taxation; United States Census Bureau; and Applied Analysis Note: 2018 estimate uses taxable retail sales data for the 12 months ending October.
Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending
Millions Visitor Volume Las Vegas Area Trailing 12-Month Total 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Visitor Volume Growth Las Vegas Area Year-over-Year 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% October 1, 2017 Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority -15% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Average Daily Room Rate Las Vegas Area Annual Average Annual Growth $140 $128 15% $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 0.2% $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 TTM -25% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 TTM Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority
Billions Gross Gaming Revenue Clark County Annual Total Annual Growth $10.5 $10.0 $10.2 6% 4% 2% 2.2% $9.5 0% -2% $9.0-4% -6% $8.5-8% -10% $8.0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 TTM -12% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 TTM Source: Nevada Department of Taxation
2019 & BEYOND
SUSTAINABILITY
324,000
State Senator Mo Denis When the Nevada Plan for Funding Education Was Created
MS WV OK UT FL AZ NM SD AR MO ID AL LA KS NC TN SC VA ME CO MT KY TX NE ND IN WA WI GA IA MN NV NH HI OH VT WY DE MI OR IL RI PA AK MD NJ CT MA CA NY Average Teacher Salaries By State $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $57,812 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Source: National Education Association (2018 Estimate)
30 INMI WA NE FL OR UT CA AZ NV Student Teacher Ratio By State 25 26.0 20 15 10 5 0 VT NJ ME NH NY WY CT MO VA ND MA SD MT KS IA WV DE PA TN AK MD SC TX NM GA NC AR OH WI MS AL CO MN LA IL KY RI ID HI OK Source: National Education Association (2018 Estimate)
AZ UT NV FL OK MS NE ID WA LA NM AR OR IN AL WV KY CO NC SC SDHI TN TX WI KS MN MI CA GA OH MT MO IA VA IL RI ND DE ME PA WY MD AK NH CT NJ MA VT NY Teacher Salaries Per Pupil By State $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,227 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Source: National Education Association (2018 Estimate)
42.0 MILLION
NEVADA S DEPENDENCE ON TOURISM 450,100 $18.8B $67.6B 37.5% $1.8B 25.8% Total Jobs Supported Total Wage & Salary Payments Supported Total Economic Output Share of States General Fund Revenue Generated Industry- Specific Fees & Taxes Collected Leisure & Hospitality Share of Total Establishmentbased Employment
Population by Generation United States 26.6% 22.6% 20.2% 22.1% 8.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Silent Generation Baby Boom Generation Generation X Millennials Generation Z
Moscone Convention Center Washington State Convention Center Miami Beach Convention Center Sacramento Convention Center Georgia World Congress Center
54,685
Mehdi Zarhloul
Leila Hale
James Barlow