Hoover IP2 @Stanford 5G Technology Dr. Kirti Gupta Vice President, Technology & Economic Strategy, Qualcomm Inc. January 10, 2019 The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of anty affiliation
The Fundamental Challenge of Wireless Communication Efficient usage of the scarce radio frequency spectrum Wireless communications involve transmitting and receiving radio signals over portions of radio frequency spectrum allocated by regulatory bodies Billions of dollars in R&D have gone into creating the technologies and IP incorporated in standards from 1G to 4G -- all targeted towards optimizing usage of scarce spectrum 2
Investment in Enabling Technologies Forming Underlying Standards Each new generation of mobile devices and networks takes roughly a decade of risky R&D to invent, and then collaboration among engineers from across the industry who jointly develop the standards R&D Commercial 1980 1988 1995 2002 2008 2014 2020 1G Non-Interoperable Systems Analog Communications Analog voice NOT POSSIBLE: Roaming, text, email, apps, or streaming media 2G <0.5 Mbps Regional Systems Digital Voice Simple Data 1987: GSM 1988: CONCEPTION OF CELLULAR CDMA 1995: CDMA IS-95A Digital voice + text International roaming enabled 3G 63+ Mbps First Global Systems Mobile Broadband (High-speed Internet) Apps Enabled 1997: EV-DO 1998: EV-DV 2000: CDMA 2000 1X 2000: WCDMA REL99 2002: EV-DO REL 0 2006: HSDPA REL 5 2007: HSUPA REL 6 2009: HSPA + REL 7 Enhanced voice Email and mobile internet Applications enabled 4G 300+ Mbps Streaming Media 2002: OFDM 2009: LTE REL 8 2011: REL-A 10 New business models First data rates Streaming media at high speeds 5G New Paradigm Internet of Things (IoT) Billions of small devices wirelessly connected. Smart cities, smart homes, mobile enhanced infrastructure, and more. 2010: 5G TECHNOLOGY 2018: LTE REL 15 2019: LTE REL 16 3
5G: The Next Frontier of Mobile Technology Healthcare Connected Cars Smart Homes Smart Cities 5G Enhanced Mobile Enhanced mobile broadband Mobile devices Networking Multi-Gbps data rates Extreme capacity Uniformity Deep awareness Mission-critical services Automotive Robotics Health Ultra-low latency High reliability High availability Strong Security Massive Internet of Things Wearables Smart cities Smart homes Low cost Ultra-low energy Deep coverage High density 4
5G will enable a critical infrastructure and a diverse set of industries Enabling connectivity of billions of devices with different needs Wearables Smart Cities Smart homes Ultra-low energy 10+ years of battery life Ultra-low complexity 10s of bits per second Ultra-high density 1 million nodes per Km 2 Extreme capacity 10 Tbps per Km 2 Deep coverage To reach challenging locations Massive Internet of Things Enhanced Mobile Broadband Extreme data rates Multi-Gigabits per second Strong security e.g. Health/government/financial trusted Mission- Critical Control Deep awareness Discovery and optimization Ultra-high reliability <1 out of 100 million packets lost Ultra-low latency As low as 1 millisecond Extreme user mobility Or no mobility at all Automotive Robotics Health Mobile devices Networking 5
5G: Example of New System Innovation Examples: Mobilizing mmwaves, shared spectrum, scalable numerologies to meet diverse deployments 5G mmwave (e.g. 24 32 GHz in EU) Smart beamforming and beam tracking Tight interworking with sub6 GHz Optimized mmwave design for mobile Increase coverage and minimize interference Increase robustness, faster system acquisition To meet cost, power and thermal constraints 6
Expected economic growth with 5G 5G: The Next Frontier of Mobile Technology Extreme throughput multi-gigabits per second Ultra-low latency down to 1ms e2e latency Uniform experience with much more capacity Revenues 3.5 Trillion worldwide 89% 88% Expect increased productivity Expect industries to emerge 22 Million Jobs worldwide 5G 91% Expect new products and services 85% Expect small business growth and more global competition Source: Karen Campbell, et al., The 5G economy: How 5G technology will contribute to the global economy, IHS Economics & IHS Technology (January 2017), PSB. 5G Economy Global Public Survey Report. December 2016. 7
The mobile industry is one of the most R&D intensive Industry R&D as a percentage of revenue Biotechnology 27% Mobile IP innovators and component design 23% Pharmaceuticals 14% Mobile infrastructure suppliers 13% Applications software 12% Health care technology 8% Mobile component manufacturing 5% Aerospace and defense 4% Mobile device OEMs 4% MNOs/MVNOs 1 Mobile device retail 0% <2% ~$100 Billion R&D investment in mobile technologies annually, growing at 9% (CAGR) since 2009 1 Million Person Hours Required to develop 4G technology standards, with 320 companies across 43 countries 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Total R&D investment in the mobile value chain is ~$100 billion a year Source: Julio Bezerra, et al., The Mobile Revolution: How Mobile Technologies Drive a Trillion Dollar Impact, Boston Consulting Group (January 15, 2015) Note: All categories represent a five-year average ( R&D ratio. Mobile-related categories are based on aggregate Capital IQ data, while nonmobile categories are based on global industry classification standard (GICS) codes. 8
Number of Firms The Innovator Implementer Divide in Standards Very few active contributors of technology amongst all participants Total - 1,037 companies Number of cumulative contributions 800 0 Number of 3GPP member firms 600 617 571,366 400 8,882 200 290 24,013 94,106 221,827 60 40 20 10 0 Number of Contributions for 3G, 4G, 5G in 3GPP (1999 2018) Source: Gupta (2017), Handbook of Standard Setting; Baron and Gupta (2018), Journal of Economic and Management Strategy NOTE: contribution counts are not a measure of significance or quality; this chart simply illustrates that a relatively small number of companies have done a disproportionately large amount of 3GPP work. 9
Standards/R&D intensive industries: Stages of development Without a robust patent system, the long term incentives to invest in R&D will be compromised Research Standardized technology development Standards-compliant products are developed Investment Risk: Interoperable networks are deployed Highest Risk Inter-standards competition & market adoption unknown Medium Risk Market adoption unknown Lower Risk Markets adopt technology The patent system helps alleviate the upfront risky investment in R&D, by enabling patent owners to recoup rewards for those handful of inventions that are successful 10