CHALLENGES TO LTE PROGRESS The Evolution of Mobile Broadband and Regulatory Policy LTE North America, Dallas, Texas, November 21-22, 2013
4G Americas Board of Governors
Exabytes per Month Traffic Growth for Voice and Data Mobile traffic growth expected to continue at around 50 70% CAGR. Key industry sources indicate growth from 26 to 58X by 2020 Global mobile traffic: voice and data 2010-2019 Video is driving the growth, already more than 50% is video-related. New capabilities, such as LTE and HD video, drive the growth even further. More connections per person, large number of M2M type Intelligent Things connected to the Internet 8 Billion mobile broadband subscriptions forecast for 2019 10X mobile data traffic (Ericsson) 12 6 0 66% CAGR 2012-2017 Source: Cisco (2013) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mobile subscriptions (million) Global Mobile Connections Q3 2013 Growth through 2019 HSPA and HSPA+ 537 networks 200 countries 4,000+ HSPA devices launched 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Source: Ericsson (November 2013) LTE 227 networks 85 countries 1,064 devices launched North America leading LTE market, >60% of subscriptions on LTE in 2018 Sources: 4G Americas; World Cellular Data Metrics; GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) Data as of 20 November, 2013 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 9.3 Billion Mobile Subscriptions 2.6 Billion LTE Subscriptions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTE WCDMA/HSPA GSM/EDGE-only TD-SCDMA CDMA Other
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 From 2020 mobile networks need to be ready to cope with the 1000x data challenge Assumptions Realistic traffic increase modeling (M2M/IoT traffic not considered) 10,000 Traffic volume per subscriber +50% per year +25% per year 1,000 1000x Total subscriber base +10% per year 100 10 Mobile broadband penetration reaching 100% by 2020 1 Source: NSN, October 2013
Challenge: Meeting the Expanding Mobile Data Demand
EDGE EVOLVED EDGE DL: 1.89 Mbps UL: 947 kbps Technology Evolution to LTE-Advanced HSPA REL 9 HSPA+ DL: 84 Mbps UL: 23 Mbps 10/10 MHz REL 10 HSPA+ DL: 168 Mbps UL: 23 Mbps 20/10 MHz REL 11 HSPA+ DL: 336 Mbps UL: 69 Mbps 40/10 MHz REL 12 HSPA+ DL: 336 Mbps UL: 69 Mbps 40/10 MHz LTE REL 9 LTE DL: 300 Mbps UL: 45 Mbps 20/20 MHz REL 10 LTE DL: 1.2 Gbps UL: 568 Mbps 40/40 MHz REL 11 LTE DL: 1.2 Gbps REL 12 LTE DL: > 1.2 Gbps 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Throughputs rates are peak theoretical network rates for that technology release. Dates refer to expected initial commercial network deployment except 2011, which shows technologies that year. There are no public announcements of deployment of WiMAX Rel 1.5 nor IEEE 802.16m. X/Y MHz indicates X MHz used on the downlink and Y MHz used on the uplink. Source: Rysavy Research/4G Americas, 2013
Bringing the network closer to the user: Key to 1000x Technology Evolution Tapping into Small Cell USER potential DEPLOYED Typically indoor small cells OPERATOR DEPLOYED Indoor/outdoor small cells 1 4G Relays & Wireless Backhaul ENTERPRISE RESIDENTIAL METRO Wi-Fi integrated with 3G/4G for opportunistic offload Extreme Densification 3G/4G+Wi-Fi Small Cells Everywhere 1 Such as relay and Pico/Metro/RRH small cells for hotspots. RRH= Remote Radio Heads, in addition Distributed Antenna Systems are used in HetNets
Carrier Aggregation fatter pipe to enhance user experience Technology Evolution Up to 20 MHz LTE Carrier #3 Up to 20 MHz Up to 20 MHz Up to 20 MHz LTE Carrier #1 LTE Carrier #4 LTE Carrier #2 Aggregated Data Pipe Up to 100 MHz Up to 20 MHz LTE Carrier #5 Higher peak data rates Higher user data rates and lower latencies for all users More capacity for typical bursty usage 1 Utilizes all spectrum assets
Spectrum Spectrum Scarcity The Mobile industry will need an additional 500 MHz above the existing spectrum base by 2020 NGMN has determined that net spectrum requirement would be between 500 MHz and 1GHZ by 2020 depending on global region. ITU analysis states that spectrum requirements by 2020 for a single network within a single country will range from 1280-1720 MHz. Countries in the Americas will need an additional 557-997 MHz beyond identified spectrum allocations by 2020. --2010 --2007 --2006
Spectrum vs Demand in the U.S. Spectrum 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 11
Spectrum U.S. Spectrum Challenge Possible Spectrum Options Industry Efforts and Potential Returns Advanced Wireless Services extensions Broadcast Television Spectrum Other Federal Spectrum opportunities Other
Maximize Spectrum below 4 GHz for LTE Spectrum Carrier Aggregation New bands ASA Dynamic combination of fragmented spectrum Additional spectrum for LTE by refarming & re-assignment Cleared spectrum prioritized! When needed, unlock spectrum by Authorized Shared Access (ASA)* with predictable QoS Carrier aggregation AWS Extension Bands PCS Extension Bands H Block TV Bands Incentive Auction 3.5 GHz?? 3.5 GHz 1750-1855 MHz? Other underutilized bands? * Also referred to as Licensed Shared Access (LSA) Source: 4G Americas Member Company
A new way of licensing spectrum Authorised Shared Access - ASA Regulatory Innovation Mainstream, Preferred Approach Auctions of Cleared Spectrum Complementary License Model Authorized Shared Access - ASA Unlicensed Approach Wi-Fi example Exclusive Use Ensures Quality of Service Exclusive Shared Use Exclusive use on a shared and binary basis in Time, Location, and/or Frequency domains with Incumbent (government, etc.) Ensures Quality of Service Shared Use Unpredictable Quality of Service
ASA architecture (Licensed Shared Access) Regulatory Innovation ASA Controller (MNO) NW controls access to ASA spectrum Permitted ASA spectrum: Where, When ASA Repository (Incumbent) NW controls access to spectrum (licensed) Regulator Commercial sharing agreement under permission of the Regulator Base station MNO Incumbent) Base station MNO ASA Licensee Incumbent NW controls access to spectrum (licensed, ASA) Multi-bands Device
Increasing Support & Capacity up to 1000x MIMO & Advanced Receiver HetNet / Small Cells Carrier Aggregation ecomp Licensed Shared Access Authorized Shared Access Supplemental Downlink Maximize below 4 GHz AWS-3 : 1755-1780/ 2155-2180 TV Incentive Auctions
4G Americas Areas of Contribution Technical Facilitation and Coordination Regulatory Policy Educational Outreach
2013 White Papers
Thank you! Chris Pearson, President 4G Americas