Prepare for Ludicrous Speed! Kelly Urbanik Programs Specialist
Yesterday
Yesterday
The Birth of Ethernet
The Development Cycle 10BASE-T 100BASE-T Gigabit Ethernet Fiber Twisted Pair 10 Gigabit Ethernet Fiber Twisted Pair 40/100 Gigabit Ethernet Category 3 Category 4 Category 5, 5e OM1/2 Category 6A OM3 OM4
Application Speeds - Yesterday 10000 1000 Data Rate 100 Horizontal Backbone 10 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Summary of Yesterday In retrospect, it seems that advances happened at a furious pace Economic growth was strong through most of the period which justified spending on advanced cabling Cabling for future speeds allowed easier migrations
Today
Today
User Generated Content If a picture is worth a thousand words, how much is a video worth? We can read about a roller coaster (500kB)
User Generated Content Or, we can watch a video of a roller coaster ride (25 MB)
User Generated Content Or, we can build a virtual roller coaster for our friends to ride (5 GB)
User Generated Content This also applies to business PowerPoint includes videos
User Generated Content Database generated dashboards require processing power
User Generated Content User manuals are moving to YouTube
User Generated Content Tech support is provided via video chat Amazon Kindle Fire with the Mayday button
More Connected Devices People and connected devices * 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Population Devices (In Billions) 25 12.5 6.8 7.2 7.6 1.8 devices per person 3.5 devices per person 6.6 devices per person 50 1G 10G 40G 100G * Source: Cisco ISBG, 2011 ** Source: Oracle, 2012 *** Source: IDC, Dell Oro, Crehan Research, Intel data from 2011, 2012
More Connected Devices Data Created Doubles Annually People and connected devices * 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Population Devices (In Billions) 25 12.5 6.8 7.2 7.6 1.8 devices per person 3.5 devices per person 6.6 devices per person 50 Zettabytes of data transmitted and stored ** kilobyte, megabyte, gigabyte, terabyte, petabyte, exabyte, zettabyte 1G 10G 40G 100G * Source: Cisco ISBG, 2011 ** Source: Oracle, 2012 *** Source: IDC, Dell Oro, Crehan Research, Intel data from 2011, 2012
More Connected Devices Data Created Doubles Annually Driving Technology Changes People and connected devices * 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Population Devices (In Billions) 25 12.5 6.8 7.2 7.6 1.8 devices per person 3.5 devices per person 6.6 devices per person 50 Zettabytes of data transmitted and stored ** kilobyte, megabyte, gigabyte, terabyte, petabyte, exabyte, zettabyte Millions of Ports *** 1G 10G 40G 100G * Source: Cisco ISBG, 2011 ** Source: Oracle, 2012 *** Source: IDC, Dell Oro, Crehan Research, Intel data from 2011, 2012
And There is Also Power 26+ million ports in 2015 PoE started @ 15W PoE + increased 30W PoE++ considering 60W+ Source: IEEE 802.3; Four Pair Power over Ethernet; Call for Interest March 2013
Current Typical Connection Speeds Workstation 100/1000 BASE-T Category 6 Wireless 1000/10G BASE-T PoE Category 6A Backbone 10G BASE-T/SR Category 6A/OM3
Current Typical Connection Speeds Spine Connection 10G/40G OM4 Server Connection 1G/10G DAC/Cat 6/OM3-4
So Why 10GBASE-T Now?
Why 10GBASE-T Now?
10GBASE-T the Power Problem 10GBASE-T Transceiver Power Trend Power (Watts) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Year 180 130 65 40 28 20 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2015 (nm)
10GBase-T Port Price Decline Price decline following aggressive curve Economies of scale driving further improvements
Why 10GBASE-T Now? Energy Efficient Ethernet (EEE) Power utilization Data center Desktop Power deployment through PoE Backwards compatibility Products are shipping Servers Switches Access points
10GBASE-T Developments Dual port PHYs currently available First 28nm PHYs are now in testing Enables fanless and quad port designs Enabling SOHO routers to appear end of 2015
Application Speeds - Today 100000 10000 Data Rate 1000 100 Horizontal Backbone 10 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Why Cable Matters There is a BIG difference between: A lab with A/C And the Real World DATA Only Temps stay constant 68 F EFTs are eliminated One cable handled carefully VOICE, DATA, POWER Temps in plenum easily reach 120 F+ Multiple sources of EFTs Rigors of installation
Summary of Today The Great Recession slowed spending on technology 10GBASE-T is happening now This will drive backbone and DC to 40 and 100 Gbps in the next several years OM4 is in place to handle 40G; Cat 6A deployment to support 10GBASE-T is just beginning
Tomorrow
Tomorrow
Potential Applications PoE++ HDBASE-T Distance Medicine Holographic Projection Streaming UHD video Joint product development???
IEEE Next Generation PoE Task Force Need to service new applications broadening market potential Nursing stations, large monitors and access points 4 pair delivery to increase system efficiencies At least 49 W but investigating much higher variants (60-100 W)
IEEE 25GBASE-T Task Force Data center focused Specifying 25GBASE-T over copper twisted pairs 30 meter, 2-connector channel Direct attach option being investigated Support for Energy Efficient Ethernet (EEE) Investigating best deployment options for Cat 8 Class 1 and Class 2 Standard in 2016?
IEEE 400GBASE Task Force Data center focused Potentially 16 lanes of 25G 32 strand MPO connector Potentially 8 lanes of 50G Potentially CWDM Push development for 25GBASE-T Standard late 2017?
25GBASE-T Cabling Standards Cat 8 Class 1 cabling comprises: RJ-45 connector for maximum backward compatibility F/UTP or S/UTP cable (overall screen or braid only) Cat 8 Class 2 cabling comprises: ARJ-45 connector for improved performance F/FTP or S/FTP cable (Individually shielded pairs)
Fibers Need to Fit in the Pathways MDP 96F 0.316 Typical Competitor 96F Cable 0.532 MDP cable provides the greatest cable density: MDP takes the least amount of tray space About 40% smaller than leading competitor Enables minimal impact to strained infrastructure Capacity of a 5 Vertical Manager
Fibers Need to Fit in the Pathways MDP 96F 0.316 Typical Competitor 96F Cable 0.532 MDP cable provides the greatest cable density: MDP takes the least amount of tray space About 40% smaller than leading competitor Enables minimal impact to strained infrastructure Capacity of a 5 Vertical Manager More than 2X
Fibers Need to Fit in the Pathways MDP 96F 0.316 Typical Competitor 96F Cable 0.532 MDP cable provides the greatest cable density: MDP takes the least amount of tray space About 40% smaller than leading competitor Enables minimal impact to strained infrastructure Capacity of a 5 Vertical Manager Almost 3X
Summary of Tomorrow The future remains hard to predict, but based on history, we can confidently say Technology change does not stop The individual user drives bandwidth needs Users that are prepared for change can migrate more quickly Preparation is easier than prediction
Prepare for Ludicrous Speed!
Thank you! Any questions? Kelly Urbanik Mike Connaughton, RCDD, CDCD kelly.urbanik@nexans.com mike.connaughton@nexans.com Office: 717-355-7686 Office: 919-577-2313 Cell: 717-283-5747 Cell: 919-802-0310