EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Smart Grid Deployment Tracker 3Q 2011 Smart Meter and Smart Grid Projects, Meter Data Management, Communications Networks, and Smart Grid Systems Integrators: Project Tracking, Vendor Selection Share, and Unit Shipments NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at sales@pikeresearch.com. Published 4Q 2011 Neil Strother Senior Analyst Bob Gohn Vice President, Research
Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction This release of Pike Research s Smart Grid Deployment Tracker includes data for both 2Q and 3Q 2011, along with some revisions in how we present the regional vendor selection shares. Instead of looking at only U.S. vendor selections in North America, this release broadens the view to include what is happening in Canada as well and for good reason. It has been a busy period for vendors in the Canadian smart grid market, as reflected in many of the charts and tables that cover North America in this tracker. Pike Research has also added a new group of providers that we follow: the meter data management (MDM) vendors. The importance of their products continues to grow as utility managers learn how to glean deeper understanding and benefits from the mountain of data that smart meters and smart grids can generate. We will continue to watch this segment with keen interest as it evolves. 1.2 New Market Activity The two most recent quarters of 2011 have seen a significant rise in announced deployments of smart meters, with almost 2 million endpoints being announced in 3Q in the United States to go along with the 5.5 million that came earlier in Canada. Clearly, there is momentum among utilities for smart grid gear and services. The big mover in 3Q 2011 was Consumers Energy, which selected SmartSynch to help it build an AMI system for its 1.8 million electric customers in Michigan. This followed the two major Canadian announcements of 2011 that set the pace in North America: BC Hydro chose Itron to supply it with 1.8 million OpenWay smart meters over the next two years as part of its smart metering program Hydro-Quebec chose Landis+Gyr to supply the bulk of the 3.75 million smart meters the utility plans to install during the next 5 years In the United States, the City of Fort Collins (Colorado utility) chose Elster as the provider of its new smart grid deployment. This includes both electric and water meter endpoints. Other vendor announcements involved smaller U.S. utilities that are just now taking steps to move to smart grids. These announcements continue a trend we noticed earlier in 2011, when smaller municipal and cooperative utilities started to follow in the footsteps of some major utilities that had already begun the process. In the Chinese market, Holley Metering and Echelon announced they would partner to develop advanced metering products for that surging country. No definitive meter numbers were announced, but Holley is a major Chinese supplier and will no doubt be on the hunt as dozens of vendors try to win their share of the massive metering rollout of some 300 million endpoints over the next 5 years. 1
1.3 Vendor Selection Share Analysis In North America, Landis+Gyr maintained its leadership position at 25% in terms of cumulative smart meter vendor selection shares during 3Q 2011. The vendor was helped in a big way by the Hydro-Quebec deal. Second place Itron maintained a solid showing at 22%, thanks to its big win at BC Hydro. Sensus and GE Energy are next in line; they were neck and neck at 16% in 3Q 2011. Chart 1.1 Cumulative Meter Manufacturer Vendor Selection Share, North America: 3Q 2011 Unknown 13% Echelon 1% SmartSynch 1% Landis+Gyr 25% Elster 6% GE Energy 16% Itron 22% Sensus 16% (Source: Pike Research) 1.4 Smart Meter and AMI Communications Node Shipments Pike Research estimates that global smart meter shipments reached 19.2 million in 3Q 2011, with about the same number of associated AMI communications nodes shipping. This represents a 5% increase over 2Q 2011, which itself was a 4% increase over 1Q 2011. As was the case earlier this year, the large majority of the global shipments were attributed to China. Smart meter shipments in China continue to grow. However, the actual configuration and use of these within AMR or AMI systems remain cloudy. When China is excluded from the mix, worldwide shipments actually dropped over 7% in 2Q compared to 1Q, but recovered in 3Q with 11% growth over 2Q. The North American market had the greatest share of smart meter shipments in 3Q, as shown in Chart 1.3 below. This volatility is attributed to North America, where some major deployments are beginning to wind down as the new Canadian deployments mentioned above are just beginning. Excluding China, North America remains the largest smart meter market. 2
Chart 1.2 Smart Meter Shipments by Region, World Markets: 3Q 2011 North America 17% China 72% Latin America 1% Europe 7% Middle East/Africa 0% Asia Pacific (except China) 3% (Source: Pike Research) Chart 1.3 Smart Meter Shipments by Region, World Markets excluding China: 3Q 2011 Asia Pacific (except China) 10% Middle East/Africa 1% Europe 26% North America 58% Latin America 5% (Source: Pike Research) 3
Section 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1... 1 Executive Summary... 1 1.1 Introduction... 1 1.2 New Market Activity... 1 1.3 Vendor Selection Share Analysis... 2 1.4 Smart Meter and AMI Communications Node Shipments... 2 Section 2... 4 New Market Activity... 4 2.1 Overview... 4 2.2 Consumers Energy... 5 2.3 City of Fort Collins... 5 2.4 China... 5 Section 3... 7 Vendor Selection Share Analysis... 7 3.1 Introduction... 7 3.2 Meter Manufacturer Vendor Selection Share... 8 3.3 Communications Modules Vendor Selection Share... 9 3.4 Systems Integrators... 10 3.5 Meter Data Management Vendors... 11 Section 4... 12 Smart Meter and Communications Node Shipments... 12 4.1 Introduction... 12 4.1.1 Definitions... 12 4.2 Global Meter and AMI Communications Node Shipments... 14 4.2.1 China Challenge... 15 4.2.2 Global AMI Communications Nodes by Technology... 16 4.2.3 Global Smart Meters by Meter Type... 18 4.3 North American Meter and AMI Communications Node Shipments... 20 4.4 Europe Meter and AMI Communications Node Shipments... 21 4.5 Latin America, Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific Markets... 23 Section 5... 24 Table of Contents... 24 Section 6... 25 Table of Charts and Figures... 25 Section 7... 26 Scope of Study... 26 Sources and Methodology... 26 Notes... 26 24
Section 6 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Cumulative Meter Manufacturer Vendor Selection Share, North America: 3Q 2011... 2 Chart 1.2 Smart Meter Shipments by Region, World Markets: 3Q 2011... 3 Chart 1.3 Smart Meter Shipments by Region, World Markets excluding China: 3Q 2011... 3 Chart 3.1 Cumulative Meter Manufacturer Vendor Selection Share, North America: 3Q 2011... 8 Chart 3.2 Cumulative AMI Communications Vendor Selection Share, North America: 3Q 2011... 9 Chart 3.3 Cumulative Systems Integrator Selection Share, North America: 3Q 2011... 10 Chart 3.4 Cumulative MDM Vendor Selection Share, North America: 3Q 2011... 11 Chart 4.1 Smart Meter Shipments by Region, World Markets: 3Q 2011... 14 Chart 4.2 Smart Meter Shipments by Region, World Markets excluding China: 3Q 2011... 15 Chart 4.3 AMI Node Shipments by Technology, World Markets: 3Q 2011... 16 Chart 4.4 AMI Node Shipments by Technology, World Markets excluding China: 3Q 2011... 17 Chart 4.5 Smart Meter Shipments by Meter Type, World Markets: 3Q 2011... 18 Chart 4.6 Smart Meter Shipments by Meter Type, World Markets excluding China: 3Q 2011... 19 Chart 4.7 AMI Node Shipments by Technology, North America: 3Q 2011... 20 Chart 4.8 Smart Meter Shipments by Meter Type, North America: 3Q 2011... 21 Chart 4.9 AMI Node Shipments by Technology, Europe: 3Q 2011... 22 Chart 4.10 Smart Meter Shipments by Meter Type, Europe: 3Q 2011... 22 Table 2.1 New Smart Grid and AMI Deployments Announced, United States: 3Q 2011... 5 Table 4.1 Smart Meter and AMI Definitions... 12 25
Section 7 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this Smart Grid Deployment Tracker to provide participants in the emerging smart grid market (equipment and hardware vendors, utilities, software companies, installation and service providers, and other system component manufacturers) with a tracker of global smart grid and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) deployments. This report tracks smart grid and AMI deployments with a focus on new market activity and a market share analysis of smart meters, AMI communications modules, and smart grid systems integrators. In short, the purpose of this Smart Grid Deployment Tracker is to comprehensively document the utility industry s smart grid advanced meter and communications module deployment announcements across global regions. SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research s analysts and the firm s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. NOTES Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2011 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 26
Published 4Q 2011 2011 Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1 303.997.7609 http://www.pikeresearch.com This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC ( Pike ). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication. 27