WiMAX: Where Does its Future Lie? Presented by: Daryl Schoolar Date: April 27, 2010 Washington DC / Paris
Agenda State of the Market Progress both good and bad Near-Term Drivers Positive and negative Future Prospects Market opportunities Questions & Answers 2
WiMAX STATE OF THE MARKET 3 3
State of the Market The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated Mark Twain You can t always get what you want M. Jagger/K. Richards 4 4
State of the Market 12 Month s of Growth 91 new deployments POPs covered increased by 43% Other signs of life 60 base stations - certified 131 devices - certified 5 5
State of the Market Continued vendor progress with products New base station & device announcements Alvarion, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Motorola, and Samsung to just name a few 802.16m demonstration Samsung & Yota Launch of vendor working group - WCI Greater transparency around shipments and scale of deployments Emphasis moving from number of deployments to the size of the deployment Vendors positioning WiMAX as integral part of their broader infrastructure strategy 6 6
State of the Market Service providers showing progress Packet One (P1): 140,000 subscribers 650 base station sites Yota: over 350,000 subscribers Clearwire: 438,000 WiMAX subscribers 46,000 of WiMAX subscribers come from MVNO partners Network in 27 markets, covering 34 million POPs BSNL: March 2010 launched its first urban market in India Targeting 250,000 subscribers by end of 2010 UQ continues network expansion Now covering 447 municipalities 2,000 base stations installed in just over two months 150,000 subscribers wi-tribe three active networks Jordan, Pakistan, Philippines 80,000 subscribers 7 7
State of the Market Progress not exactly as planned While market focus is on 802.16e, a significant portion of deployments are 802.16d Most deployments are fixed or nomadic, not mobile Device certification has not met the WiMAX Forum s forecasts Majority of mobile operators are selecting LTE over WiMAX More than 64 mobile operators already committed to deploying LTE 24 operators are currently testing LTE 8 8
WiMAX NEAR-TERM DRIVERS 9 9
Near-Term Drivers Near-Term Drivers: Positive Certification of 2.3GHz devices Declining prices of devices $30-$40 USB modems, sub-$100 CPE The WiMAX Forum s Open Retail Certification Program 802.16m demonstrations and progress on product certification/commercialization from the WiMAX Forum and WCI India spectrum auction? Increased momentum from Clearwire s MVNO partners Expands the market Re-enforces the MVNO model More operators coming forward and sharing their stories Stories of success breed market confidence 10 10
Near Term Drivers Near-Term Drivers: Positive Committed infrastructure market Continued product innovation Vendors offering multiple WiMAX solutions High Capacity Base Station Alvarion Huawei Motorola Samsung ZTE Multiple Yes Multiple Multiple Multiple Low/Mid Capacity Base Station Yes Yes Multiple Multiple Yes ASN Gateway In-House & Partners Multiple In- House In-House & Partners Multiple In- House In-House Devices In-House & Partners In-House In-House In-House In-House 11 11
Near-Term Drivers Near-Term Drivers: Negative GSMA forecasting 20 commercial LTE networks by end of 2010 Directly challenging WiMAX s competitive advantage of speed Challenging WiMAX s two-year head start TD-LTE threatening the traditional WiMAX market Qualcomm bidding on spectrum in India Alcatel-Lucent supporting TD-LTE over 802.16m Clearwire/Sprint supporting TD-LTE standard for 2.6Ghz WiMAX vendors also supporting TD-LTE Exit/de-emphasis of market by high-profile vendors Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Nokia Siemens Networks Many WiMAX operators are new, with limited track records Adequate funding Building market mindshare Incumbent competition 12 12
WiMAX FUTURE PROSPECTS 13 13
Future Prospects The Digital Divide still remains Greenfield deployments Fixed-line operators building a mobile service Primarily data driven services More like Wi-Fi on steroids than cellular data Partnerships with established mobile operators Provide network off-load services Niche opportunities utilities, security, etc 14 14
Conclusion Despite the lower profile versus LTE, WiMAX still remains relevant Investments in WiMAX continues WiMAX technology continues to evolve Operators need to offer something different than what is currently offered by mobile operators Look for opportunities outside the traditional service provider space LTE is the 4G choice for most mobile operators 15 15
WiMAX QUESTIONS & ANSWERS 16 16
Thank You Insert Photo For more information, please contact Daryl Schoolar Principal Analyst: Mobile Access (703) 788-3609 dschoolar@currentanalysis.com www.currentanalysis.com Washington, D.C. 21335 Signal Hill Plaza, Suite 200 Sterling, VA 20164, United States Phone +1 703 404 9200 Toll free 877 787 8947 Fax +1 703 404 9300 Paris, France Bureaux de Sèvres - 2, rue Troyon 92316 Sevres Cedex, France Phone +33 (0) 1 41 14 83 15 17 17