Demand Drivers for Broadband: Global Experience and Learnings for India National Broadband Initiative Workshop 16 th April 2010
Inflexion points in Internet / broadband growth across markets have been triggered by different drivers 2 90% Internet / Broadband Penetration, Inflexion Points and Primary Drivers (USA, UK, Brazil, China and India) 2009 BB Penetration 75% UK: Reduction in Access prices by Cable and ADSL providers 29% 23% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% USA: Multiple Applications: Hotmail, ICQ, AOL Messenger, Napster Brazil: PC financing provided by Government to retailer 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 China: Local language content United States United Kingdom Brazil China India and websites 7% 20% 0.7% Source: Analysys Mason, News Articles; google.com/publicdata
Internet adoption in late 1990s in the USA was driven by emergence of variety of web-based applications 3 Applications Adoption Trends of Different Applications in 90s 1 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 mn Exponential Growth in Late 90s 52 68 10 95 30 From 1 mn to 50 mn in 7 months 113 55 136 Internet Subscribers 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 80 50 In the mid to late 90s, multiple applications and services emerged - webmail (Hotmail), instant messenger (ICQ / AOL Messenger), file sharing (Napster), shopping (Amazon) These applications saw immediate adoption as consumers saw the convenience in being able to communicate / share / transact instantly In addition, there were other enablers such as graphical use interface OS (Windows), that enabled a layman to use a PC, together with declining prices for PC making them affordable as a household item Source: Analysys Mason, Report by University of Cambridge Hotmail: Delivering E-mail to the World, 2001
In UK, ~40% reduction in access charges triggered a 25% increase in internet penetration in one year 4 Access Price Broadband Price per Month for 512 kbps (2002) Broadband subscription prices were reduced by up to 45% in 2001 / 2002 Before Reduction ~ 40 Price reduction in 2001; 45% HH coverage Price reduction in April 2002; 60% HH coverage Cable modems gained nearly 60% of UK broadband subscribers due to 2001 price reductions 25 30 22 25 April 2002 reductions in BT's wholesale prices (by 40% for its main residential product) encouraged the ADSL market In addition, self-installation kit with instruction manual increased user convenience and decreased dependence Broadband Subscription Cable Modem ADSL on engineer and truck-roll cost for service providers Source: Analysys Mason, Report by Parliamentary Office of Science & Technology Broadband Internet Access, July 2002
Driver for internet adoption in Brazil and Mexico was low cost financing of PCs by Govt. and service providers 5 Device Price Government Initiative to Finance PC in Brazil Service Provider Initiative to Finance PC in Mexico Sales in 2 weeks for a retailer 1 with financing from state owned bank 400% 14,000 2,800 Before Financing After Financing Under Government s Popular PC project, financing is given directly to retailers to be passed on to consumers Sales of PC increased by up to 400% for retailers who managed to get the financing from Government (strict ownership condition and computer cost limit were put on the firms for receiving financing) Government s promotion had an indirect impact on sales of other retailers (without financing support) Telmex, the leading service provider in Mexico, offered PCs at 12, 24 and 36 month plans; no subsidies were offered & PCs were sold at original cost Service positioning: Instant credit approval, no credit card is required, reasonably priced PCs with low-cost financing; subscription to broadband optional 25% incentive discount given to existing and new broadband customers Nearly 100% of PC buyers were converted to broadband subscribers to benefit from the 25% discount Source: Analysys Mason, News Articles, Report by Pyramid Research Changing Broadband Landscape in Latin America, Nov 2009
In addition to other enablers, local language sites were a key growth driver for the China internet market 6 Local Language Unit: 10,000 300 Cumulative Number of Websites Registered in China 287.8 Local language is the norm for websites in China; there were 2.87 mn websites whose domain names were registered in China by 2008 Adoption of leading information search 200 100 0 150.4 59.6 66.9 69.4 84.3 27.7 37.2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 sites such as Yahoo! and Google was slow due to the availability of Chinese equivalents such as Baidu Availability of information / content in local language can be seen as a key driver for internet adoption in countries / regions with limited English language capabilities Source: Analysys Mason, China Internet Statistics, CNNIC, 2009
In summary, the adoption drivers are lower device and access prices in addition to relevant content / apps 7 11 Device Price High PC price is a barrier to internet / broadband adoption by mass market 22 Access Price / Experience Access price has to come down, without a deterioration in end user experience 33 Local Content / Applications Availability of locally relevant content will increase the utility of internet / broadband Source: Analysys Mason
Device financing, bundling and shared access could be the mechanisms to increase device affordability 8 11 Entry Level PCs and Netbook Prices in India (INR 000s) 27 Initiative Bundled Devices Description Devices bundled with service plans: Due to a monthly relationship with the consumers, carriers are well positioned to offer bundled devices In Europe, almost all netbooks are sold by carriers bundled with a data plan 14 12 Financing Options Similar to the initiative in Brazil, Government can finance the distributor / retailer to boost PC sales USO fund can be used to extend this financing scheme Desktops Laptops Netbooks Shared Access Device Government has plans to create 116K CSCs as access points for 600 K villages; 40 K CSCs have already been rolled out Implementation of such initiatives should be accelerated coupled with consumer education Source: Analysys Mason
In addition, broadband access price needs to decline to increase acceptance by the middle income segments 9 22 Broadband Access Price as % of Monthly Income 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Annual HH Income 16.0% 5.0% 8.0% Unlimited Plan Lowest Cost Plan 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% <90K 90 200K 200 500K > 500K Household 54% 41% 4% 1% Broadband prices have reduced to INR 125 per month with usage limit of 125 MB; initial deposits / installation charges of INR 875 However consumers are not comfortable with fixed plans as they are wary of their usage and the actual charges they may have to pay Unlimited plans start at INR 500 per month; this forms more than 8% of monthly income for 95% of the households On average, Indians spend 12% on housing & utility and 2 3% on communications Broadband access cost has to decline further for majority of households to incur it as part of monthly expenses For the urban areas, this is likely to be driven by market competition; in rural areas, Government initiatives are required to make access more affordable Source: Analysys Mason, BSNL, Tapping into the Indian Consumer Market, McKinsey & Company, June 2007
Given the low levels of English literacy, availability of local language sites will help drive adoption of internet 10 33 Languages Spoken in India (Number of speakers, mn) Indian Language Websites 600 551 800 713 400 600 400 200 0 125 91 85 84 Hindi English Bengali Telugu Marathi 200 0 Hindi 153 117 97 Tamil Telegu Bengali 57 Gujrati 40 38 34 Kannada Punjabi Marathi Only about 10% of the population is English speaking, however there are only 1,250 non-english sites Low number of local language sites reflects the poor availability of localized online content to be accessed by semi-urban and rural masses Initiatives are required to create local language content relevant for majority of the population Source: Analysys Mason, IAMAI Report, Number of Local Language Sites in India stands at a Pathetic 1249!, Jan 09
Policy initiatives and market interventions are required to grow the broadband market in India 11 Projected Broadband Subscriber Growth Market changes required Reduction in broadband access prices 45.5 mn Bundling of devices with service plan 483% 3G / WiMAX: 53% Development of websites in local language Policy initiatives Cable Modem: 14% Usage of USO Fund for financing / subsidizing access devices 7.8 mn DSL / Fiber: 33% Policy initiatives to encourage development of websites in local language 2009 2014 Source: Analysys Mason
To kickstart this growth potential, all Govt transactions beyond a certain value can be mandated to be electronic 12 Modes of Payment to Government of India Account Cash Cash Demand Draft Issued at bank branch Indian Postal Order Currently, all payments to Government authorities are either through demand draft, postal order, treasury chalan or online payments 1 Non-online processes are cumbersome and requires the payee to visit a bank, post office or the treasury office. Only few entities use the online system Cash Cheque Bank Account Credit / Debit / Prepaid Card Issued at Post Offices Treasury Chalan Issued at Treasury Offices Online Payment Payment from Government is also mostly check based If it can be mandated that all Government transactions beyond a certain level (e.g. INR 50K) be electronic, any entity dealing with the Government and Government offices will require internet access and electronic banking for conducting ongoing business Note 1. Online payments is only for some transactions such as payment of property tax that can be online Source: Analysys Mason
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