Public Disclosure Authorized AFRICA Gabon Transport & ICT Global Practice IBRD/IDA Adaptable Program Loan FY 2012 Seq No: 9 ARCHIVED on 25-Jan-2016 ISR22499 Implementing Agencies: Public Disclosure Authorized Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:28-Mar-2012 Planned Mid Term Review Date:31-Oct-2014 Original Closing Date:31-Dec-2016 Project Development Objectives Effectiveness Date:06-Mar-2013 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:30-Jan-2015 Revised Closing Date:31-Dec-2016 Public Disclosure Authorized Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the project is consistent with the PDO for the CAB Program: To contribute to increasegeographical reach and usage of regional broadband network services and reduce their prices in the territory of the Republic ofgabon. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Component 1 - Enabling environment:(cost $6.07 M) Public Disclosure Authorized Component 2 - Connectivity:(Cost $47.00 M) Component 3 - Project Management:(Cost $2.93 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial 1/25/2016 Page 1 of 9
Implementation Status and Key Decisions This ISR (sequence 9) is based on a supervision mission conducted in Gabon from September 14 till 25, 2015. Major milestones in project implementation have been achieved since the September 2015 mission, and disbursement rate increased from 18% at the end of May 2015 to 46% at the beginning of January 2016. The private wholesale operator (Axione of France) has been duly created, registered and made operational and has obtained the license to operate in Gabon ; five commercial contracts with local telecoms operators and Internet Service Providers (ISPs) have been signed as of early January 2016 for the international connectivity on the ACE submarine cable as well as for the national submarine cable between Libreville and Port-Gentil (financed by counterpart funding). Following the notification on November 23, 2015 that the disbursement conditions for the international ACE connectivity were lifted, an immediate disbursement was made to refinance $5.64 million ; as indicated during the Mid Term Review mission, the Gabonese authorities used this refinancing to make available early January 2016 the full counterpart funding on the Project Implementation Unit project account. Works - passive infrastructure of the national backbone are progressing on several fronts simultaneously to burry the PVC ducts and build the technical centers. The Bank is closely monitoring safeguards compliance. Bids for the active equipment required to carry traffic over the passive infrastructure of the national backbone are expected by early March 2016. The Internet Exchange Point (GabIXP), which is operational since December 2014, was selected in July 2015 by the African Union (AU) to become the first of the two Regional IXPs for Central Africa. Pursuant to the Memorandum of Understanding on the CAB4(Gabon)-CAB3(Congo) cross border fiber interconnection signed on February 6, 2014 in Brazzaville, bidding documents for the backbone works under CAB4 and under CAB3 have been made consistent with each other to ensure that the fibers to be built in Gabon and in Congo will effectively connect in Lekoko (border Gabon-Congo) and the teams in Gabon and Congo are progressing towards this objective at comparable pace. Finally technical assistances to define a national broadband stimulation strategy and to revise the basic telecoms Law and the 2nd generation ICT laws are expected to be launched early February 2016. Results were updated with data as of end of June 2015, because data as of end of December 2015 are not yet available. 1/25/2016 Page 2 of 9
Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool 1/25/2016 Page 3 of 9
Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Moderate Moderate Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Moderate Moderate Stakeholders -- Moderate Moderate Other -- Moderate Moderate Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results Project Development Objective Indicators International Internet Bandwidth (Bits per second per person) (Number, Custom) Value 4620.00 11170.00 13141.00 14712.00 The indicator is on track with End target. Access to Internet Services (number of subscribers per 100 people) (Number, Core) Value 14.00 69.00 59.00 28.00 The indicator is far above forecast and is expected to be far above End Target. The real need for Internet in Gabon described in the PAD has been addressed by a sound competitive dynamic both in the mobile broadband market (3G/4G licenses awarded in March 2014 to both Airtel Gabon and Gabon Telecom/Moov) and in the fixed broadband market (between Gabon Telecom/Moov and independent Internet Service Providers) fuelled by anticipation of the new ACE connectivity ; five commercial contracts with local telecoms operators and Internet Service Providers (ISPs) have been signed as of early January 2016. The value achieved as of End of December 2014 is likely to decrease 1/25/2016 Page 4 of 9
due to the following factors: consolidation of the market from 4 to 3 operators (Moov has been acquired by Gabon Telecom) which will lead to a clean up of the mobile broadband client databases ; customers moving from 3G prepaid to 4G prepaid mobile broadband; substitution from fixed to mobile broadband. The End Target will be revised during preparation of the Additional Financing, Access to Telephone Services (fixed mainlines plus cellular phones per 100 people) (Number, Core) Value 147.00 174.00 160.00 125.00 The registration of all SIM card owners by the Gabonese mobile operators has taken place till End of March 2015 (against End 2012 as anticipated). It is expected that the combination of the upcoming clean-up of client databases following the consolidation of Gabon Telecom/Moov will be associated with a sharp decrease in the number of mobile cellular subscriptions before the End of the project that should bring the indicator closer to the End Target. Average monthly price of wholesale international E1 capacity link from capital city to Europe (US$/ month/2mbps) (Number, Custom) Value 10500.00 5000.00 5000.00 500.00 Price as of End of June 2015 is still lagging behind forecast because the wholesale operator has not yet started its commercial activities and price is based only on existing SAT3 connectivity. First commercial contract on the new ACE connectivity was signed in October 2015 by the private wholesale operator (Axione) so that price as of End of December 2015 is expected to be in line with forecast. Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Core) 1/25/2016 Page 5 of 9
PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL Value 1545255.00 1672634.00 1672634.00 1740208.00 Date 31-Dec-2010 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2016 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Core Supplement) Value 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 Overall Intermediate Results Indicators Impact on Telecom sector of World Bank Technical Assistance (composite score: 1- low impact to 5-high impact) (Number, Core) Value 0.00 1.60 1.60 4.00 Date 31-Dec-2010 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2016 Average cost of mobile call (three minutes, local, peak) (US$/3 min) (Number, Custom) Value 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.20 Price as of end of June 2015 have not changed compared to end of December 2014. Following the consolidation of Gabon Telecom/Moov, there are now two leading operators (Airtel Gabon and Gabon Telecom/Moov) and a challenger (Azur Telecom). The Government of Gabon has launched a study (financed by the CAB4 project) to assess whether Mobile Virtual Network Operators could contribute to keeping the market dynamic. 1/25/2016 Page 6 of 9
PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL Retail Price of Internet Services (per Mbit/s per Month, in US$) (Amount(USD), Core) Value 218.00 139.00 139.00 80.00 Price as of End of December 2014 was close to forecast (120.00) and did not change because Airtel launched its 4G services with delay compared to Gabon Telecom, as commercial contract for the new ACE connectivity could only be signed after September 2015 when the private wholesale operator has been duly created, registered and made operational and has obtained the license to operate in Gabon. Number of operators and ISPs buying capacity from the regional infrastructure deployed (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 Date 31-Dec-2010 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2016 Commercial contract for the new ACE connectivity could only be signed after September 2015 when the private wholesale operator has been duly created, registered and made operational and has obtained the license to operate in Gabon. First commercial contract signed in October 2015. As of early January 2016 a total of five commercial contracts have been signed. The indicator is therefore on track with End Target. International Communications (Internet, Telecoms and Data) bandwidth (Gbit/s) (Number, Custom) Value 1.20 6.60 6.60 4.90 Date 31-Dec-2010 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2015 -- 1/25/2016 Page 7 of 9
PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL Length of Fiber Optic Network Built (km) (Kilometers, Core) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 1140.00 National backbone works - passive infrastructure have started in April 2015 following completion of the Resettlement Plan and are progressing. Active equipment remain to be deployed (bids expected early March 2016). Increased access to ICT services: Number of localities with broadband Internet access (256Kbps) (Number, Custom) Value 3.00 11.00 13.00 10.00 The indicator is expected to be above target given the competitive 3G/4G mobile broadband market. Overall Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P122776 IBRD-81500 Effective USD 58.00 58.00 0.00 26.91 31.09 46% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P122776 IBRD-81500 Effective 28-Mar-2012 21-May-2012 06-Mar-2013 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Cumulative Disbursements 1/25/2016 Page 8 of 9
Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) P158299-Additional Financing CAB4 1/25/2016 Page 9 of 9