ITU Sub-Regional Seminar on IMT-2000 (Warsaw, 2-4.10.01) IMT-2000 Towards Global Implementation Fabio Leite, Project Manager, IMT-2000
The Information Society High-speed Internet M-commerce Video-phone & multimedia
Digital Divide = Telecoms Divide 100% User distribution, by income group 340 million 725 million 927 million 6 billion 15% High income 57% Upper-mid income 50% 74% 65% Lower-mid income Low income 0% Internet users Mobile users Telephone lines Population Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database (January 2001).
Industrial Challenge of the 21 st Century COMMERCIAL Is there a market? FINANCIAL Are the investments going to be made? TECHNOLOGICAL Are the standards set and equipment available? Operator s investment: US$ 0.5 trillion (licence + infrastructure + marketing)
Cumulative Revenue: US$ 1 trillion! Source: UMTS Forum (April 2001)
Mobile Market Smoking among boys and girls and ownership of mobile phones among those aged 15-24 (UK). Teenagers are giving up cigarettes in preference to fashionable mobile phones.... The mobile phone is an effective competitor to cigarettes in the market for products that offer teenagers adult style, individuality, sociability, rebellion, peer group bonding and adult aspiration.", British Medical Journal, Nov.2000
Mobile Internet Dilemmas Access is generally metered, per-minute Voice mail and messaging charged by air-time Content providers share airtime revenues Access is generally unmetered, flat-rate E-mail is perceived to be a free application Content providers gain revenue principally through advertising or subscription In a mobile-internet world: Which business model takes precedence? Who does the billing? How are revenues shared between content provider, service provider and portal?
IMT-2000 Licenses No. of licenses 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 2000 2001
3G License Prices Revenue as % GNP: 2.4 UK Average price per pop.: 595 US$ 2.5 Germany 562 1.1 France 180 Vodafone 13% 1.2 0.7 Italy Netherlands 175 160 Others 35% Hutchison 11% Austria Portugal 36 88 NTT DoCoMo 10% Australia Switzerland Norway 17 10 32 British Telecom 7% 9% 7% 8% Telefónica MobilCom Source: 3gnewsroom (4.01) Deutsche Telekom Finland, Sweden Source: ITU, http://www.itu.int/ti/industryoverview/at_glance/umts2001.htm 0
IMT-2000: Towards Global Implementation hype UK / Germany 3G auctions NTT DoCoMo launch Mobile multimedia mass market de-hype First successful network launches in Europe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 time Source: Bosco Fernandes, Siemens AG
IMT-2000: ITU s Role Spectrum Terminal circulation arrangements Standards Licenses Assistance Field trials IPR access
Spectrum: the starting point
IMT-2000 Frequency Spectrum after WRC-2000 800 850 900 950 1000 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 ITU Allocations IMT 2000 IMT 2000 IMT 2000 MSS IMT 2000 MSS IMT 2000 Europe GSM UMTS GSM 1800 DECT MSS UMTS MSS UMTS China Cellular GSM GSM 1800, PCS IMT 2000 MSS IMT 2000 MSS Japan, Korea (w/o PHS) PDC PDC PHS IMT 2000 MSS IMT 2000 MSS North America Cellular P C S MSS Reserve A D B E F A B C MSS C D E F Brasil, Venezuela Cellular Cell. Cell. IMT 2000 IMT 2000 ITU Radio Regulations: 750 MHz of spectrum identified for IMT-2000
Standards-setting will never be the same again
2G? 3G Evolution & Convergence TDMA C-EDGE W-CDMA GSM GPRS EDGE cdma2000 cdmaone 1xRTT GSM MAP Core Network IMT DS IMT MC High-Packet Technology IP Core Network 2001 1xEV IS41 Core Network 2004
Towards a Fully Harmonized 3G System W-CDMA cdma2000 HSDPA 1xEV-DV GSM MAP IS-41 All-IP All-IP evolved (3GPP) (3GPP2) evolved High Packet Access System All-IP based Core Network Let s not do 2G all over again!
Benefits of Globally Harmonized 3G Networks Increased 3G penetration and usage Manufacturers development costs spread out across a larger installed base Ability for customers to roam with their services across regions, countries and systems Increased ability of the Information Technology, Internet and Personal Computer industries to provide mobile applications, solutions and subscriber devices Smooth and compatible evolution path from existing 2G infrastructures
Regulating for implementation
Global Circulation of IMT-2000 Terminals Right of users to carry their personal terminals into a visited country, and the ability to use them wherever possible : without causing unacceptable interference; considering health and safety requirements. Actions towards an agreed international framework to facilitate global circulation: ITU-R WP8F: Recs. IMT.RCIRC & UNWANT (technical basis) Consultation by ITU-SG: on basic principles of no individual license; no additional terminal certification or type approval; and customs arrangements. Informal consultation meetings: ITU & EC/CITEL/APT. IMTEM = IMT Electronic Mark (terminal identifier w/ regulatory data to be used only where legally required)
IMT-2000: ITU s Role Coordinator Facilitator Guarantor
Imagination Meeting Technology For more information: Fabio Leite, Project Manager, IMT-2000 International Telecommunication Union E-mail: Fabio.Leite@itu.int Web: http://www.itu.int/osg/imt-project