ERO Reliability Risk Priorities Report Peter Brandien, RISC Chair Member Representatives Committee Meeting November 1, 2016
RISC s Proposed 2016 Risk Profiles Changing Resource Mix Bulk Power System Planning Resource Adequacy and Performance Asset Management and Maintenance Human Performance and Skilled Workforce Loss of Situational Awareness Extreme Natural Events Physical Security Vulnerabilities Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities 2
Risk Evaluation Key Inputs Committee s Subject Matter Expertise Pulse Point Interviews FERC Technical Conference MRC Policy Input Assessment of Risk Profiles High Moderate Low 3
Risk Priority Process Three risk priorities developed: High risks are evolving, with impact and mitigation less clear, requiring the most attention on industry focus to understand and mitigate Moderate risks represent a large potential impacts, with industry consensus on necessary mitigations. Low risks do not mean impact is small, rather the profiles are understood with clearly identifiable mitigation steps, and the risk trend is stable or decreasing. Industry must remain vigilant in addressing Moderate and Low risks to prevent these profiles from being escalated higher 4
Risk Priorities High Risk Profiles Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities Changing Resource Mix Bulk Power System Planning Resource Adequacy Moderate Risk Profiles Loss of Situational Awareness Physical Security Vulnerabilities Extreme Natural Events Low Risk Profiles Asset Management and Maintenance Human Performance and Skilled Workforce 5
RISC s Proposed 2016 Risk Profiles 6
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2017 2020 ERO Enterprise Strategic Plan and Metrics Mark Lauby, Senior Vice President and Chief Reliability Officer Member Representatives Committee Meeting November 1, 2016
Background Adjustments since August: ERO Enterprise vision, mission, core values, and principles refined Contributing activities aligned with Reliability Issues Steering Committee (RISC) risk profile recommendations Longer-term strategic planning captured in the risk profiles Reliability metrics enhanced Initial draft of NERC performance metrics developed Policy input requested for November 2
Key Components ERO Enterprise Goals and Contributing Activities ERO Enterprise Reliability Metrics NERC Performance Metrics 3
ERO Enterprise Goals Five ERO Enterprise goals with activities for the next three years: Goal 1: Risk-responsive Reliability Standards Goal 2: Objective and Risk-informed Compliance Monitoring, Enforcement, and Organization Certification and Registration Goal 3: Identification and Mitigation of Significant Risks to Reliability Goal 4: Identification and Assessment of Emerging Risks to Reliability Goal 5: Effective and Efficient ERO Enterprise Operations 4
ERO Enterprise Reliability Metrics Six enduring ERO Enterprise reliability metrics with measures of success, thresholds, and targets adjusted annually as needed: Metric 1: Fewer, less severe events Metric 2: No gaps in Reliability Standards and compliance monitoring Metric 3: Resource deficiencies are foreseen Metric 4: No unauthorized physical or cyber security access resulting in disruption to Bulk Electric System facilities Metric 5: Reduced reliability risk from noncompliance Metric 6: Reduced risks in targeted areas 5
Metric 6: Reduced Risks in Targeted Areas Events caused by unit forced outages due to cold weather Annual Misoperations rate of performance Number of: Automatic AC transmission outages caused by human error Transmission outages due to AC substation equipment failures Transmission line forced outages due to vegetation 6
NERC Performance Metrics Four metrics for improving ERO effectiveness and efficiency: Implementation of action plans in response to ERO Enterprise Effectiveness Survey results Implementation of ERO Enterprise technology solutions Implementation of Regional Entity oversight plans and adherence to the Rules of Procedure Execution of Business Plan and Budget (BP&B) 7
Strategic Planning Moving Forward Remove year designation (e.g., 2018 2021) and move to everyother-year review cycle Annual BP&B development always based on latest strategic plan Creates on years and off years for risk prioritization and strategic planning 8
Strategic Planning Moving Forward On year (starts 2017, then every-other year): March RISC Reliability Leadership Summit August RISC Reliability Priorities Report (RISC Report) accepted November ERO Enterprise Strategic Plan and Metrics approved; includes measures/thresholds/targets for the following year Off year (starts 2018, then every-other-year): August RISC affirms risk profiles o If there are unexpected emerging risks, RISC Report will be revised and accepted November Measures/thresholds/targets for the following year approved o If there are revisions to the risk profiles in August, the ERO Enterprise Strategic Plan and Metrics may be revised and approved 9
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2016 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Preliminary Overview John Moura, Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis Members Representatives Committee November 1, 2016
NERC Reliability Assessments 10-year Outlook Peak demand forecasts Resource adequacy Transmission adequacy Key issues - emerging trends Technical challenges Evolving market practices System elements/dynamics Potential legislation/regulation Regional self-assessment Ad-hoc special Assessments 2
Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus #1: Resource Adequacy - Reserve Margins in all assessment areas appear sufficient in the short term; three areas fall under in the long-term 2021 (Year 5) 2026 (Year 10) 3
Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus #1: Resource Adequacy - Unconfirmed retirement sensitivity applied to the reserve margin assessment Organization of MISO States 2016 Survey Regional Haze ruling and CPP in ERCOT MISO ERCOT 4
Non-Coincident Peak Demand Projections 10-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate Peak Demand Energy (MWh) projections follow same trend, annual growth changes from 0.8 percent in 2015 to 0.4 percent for 2016 5
Projected Generation Mix Planned Capacity Additions by Generation Type and Tier, 2017-2026 6
Capacity Contributions from Variable Resources Wind Credit: Average between 10 20 percent Solar Credit: Region-Specific, high-end between 50 and 85 percent 7
Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus #2: Single Fuel Dependency Natural Gas-Fired generation continues to increase capacity projections and rate of growth 2016 NERC-Wide Natural Gas Capacity Projections Compared to Prior Projections 8
Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus #2: Single Fuel Dependency Natural Gas-Fired generation continues to increase capacity projections and rate of growth Areas with High Penetration of Natural Gas Assessment Area 5-year Increase in Gas Capacity (%) 2021 Share of Gas Capacity (%) FRCC 11.3 69.0 WECC-CAMX* 5.6 68.2 TRE-ERCOT** 13.1 63.3 NPCC-New England 13.8 52.3 *WECC-CAMX has ability (limited) to increase imports from interconnection if gas units are forced out of service. 9 **Meshed pipeline grid provides some resilience and mitigation options should a pipeline contingency occur
Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus #3: Nuclear Uncertainty High cost of operation/installations/commissions Aging units Environmental regulation impacts (direct/indirect) State programs/initiatives Local reliability impacted when plants retire 10
Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus #4: Essentially Reliability Services: System requirements need to be studied, planned, and communicated with policy makers Voltage, Frequency, and Ramping capability CAISO experiences their projected duck curve 4 years earlier than forecasted Areas with largely increasing VER (particularly solar PV) foresee ramping challenges quicker than expected 11
#5: Distributed Energy Resources Quickly increasing installations Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2016 Reliability Issues in Focus Observability challenges creates difficulty in measuring impacts Higher penetration of DER results in changes to planning and operational considerations to maintain BPS reliability US, Actual and Forecast Distributed Solar PV Installations (converted to GW-AC) 12 Source: GTM research
Probability-Based Resource Assessment Probability analysis allows NERC and the industry to assess the likelihood of rare events (such as a capacity deficiency) Variable resources increase Reserve Margin confidence bands 13
Additional Emerging Issues Highlighted Demand-Side Management Clean Power Plan implementation Maintaining system strength State of modeling challenges and improvement initiatives System restoration with high penetration of asynchronous resources Increased need for reactive power devices 2017 and 2024 solar eclipse 14
LTRA Timeline Date Week of October 24 November 9 16 November 30 December 14 December 15 Milestone Sent to Planning Committee (PC) and MRC for review PC email vote to accept LTRA Send to NERC Board and MRC for review Board conference call for approval LTRA released 15
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2016-17 Winter Reliability Assessment John Moura, Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis Member Representatives Committee Meeting November 1, 2016
Reserve Margins are Sufficient for Each Assessment Area 2
Key Findings Fuel Supply Adequate fuel supply anticipated Natural gas continues to be predominant fuel for most areas in winter Transmission System Reliability Adequate for upcoming winter Aliso Canyon and its impacts Total Internal Demand For most areas it has remained flat or decreased 3
Assessment Area Example 4
2016/17 WRA Timeline Date October 24 27 November 7 November 15 Milestone PC email vote to accept WRA Send to NERC Board and MRC for information WRA released 5
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Special Assessment: Single Point of Disruption on Natural Gas Infrastructure John Moura, Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis Member Representatives Committee Meeting November 1, 2016
Background and Assessment Scope Aliso Canyon storage leak underscored potential reliability issues accentuating the need for Special Assessment Evaluate impacts to bulk power system reliability as a result of potential disruptions and the loss of major natural gas infrastructure facilities Target audience: Provide awareness for system planners and operators as well as policy makers and federal, state and provincial regulators 2
Trends Natural Gas Capacity Growth (Year 5) GW 12 10 8 6 4 2-4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Capacity Growth Percentage Growth Generation impacted by fuel supply interruption 10-15 Natural Gas Storage facilities identified for closer evaluation 3
Development Approach I II III IV Identify key natural gas infrastructure facilities Determine the amount of generation capacity impacted Evaluate the resource adequacy impacts Consider contribution of dual-fuel generation Conduct an assessment leveraging available power system studies Provide actionable recommendations Currently Finalizing scope with the technical advisory group MRC review May 2017 4
Advisory Group Composition Approximately 30 members participating on the advisory group Various sectors represented: National Laboratories US and Canadian Natural Gas Associations Regional and FERC Staff Power pools, and utilities Independent System Operators and Regional Transmission Organizations 5
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Recent FERC Activity David Ortiz Deputy Director, Office of Electric Reliability Federal Energy Regulatory Commission November 1, 2016
Order No. 830 Approves TPL-007-1 and Directs Changes Modify the benchmark GMD event definition used in the required GMD Vulnerability Assessments and transformer thermal impact assessments so that the reference peak geoelectric field amplitude component is not based solely on spatially-averaged data. Require entities to collect GIC monitoring and magnetometer data to enable model validation and situational awareness Provide deadlines for Corrective Action Plans: One year for Corrective Action Plans Two years for non-hardware solutions in plans Four years for completion of hardware solutions in plans NERC must submit within 18 months of final rule 2
Order No. 830 Directs NERC to Develop a GMD Research Plan Topics include Area of which spatial averaging should be calculated Earth conductivity models Latitude-scaling factors Aspects of the required thermal impact assessments Any other areas that may impact the development of new or modified GMD Reliability Standards Must make data available publicly NERC must submit the research work plan by May 29, 2017 3
FERC Proposes in NOPR to Approve BAL-005-1 and FAC-001-2 Issued NOPR on September 22, 2016 and comments due by November 28, 2016 Proposed standards clarify and consolidate Existing requirements for frequency control More accurate calculation of Reporting Area Control Error (ACE) NOPR proposes to approve the retirement of Reliability Standard BAL-006-2 Inadvertent Interchange FERC requests additional information regarding proposed retirement of Requirement R15 of BAL-005-0.2b, requiring responsible entities to maintain and periodically test backup power supplies at primary control centers and other critical locations 4
FERC Approves Two Standards on Real-time Reliability Monitoring Order, issued September 22, 2016, approves two Reliability Standards IRO-018-1 Reliability Coordinator Real-time Reliability Monitoring and Analysis Capabilities TOP-010-1 Real-time Reliability Monitoring and Analysis Capabilities Standards address real-time reliability monitoring and analysis capabilities of reliability coordinators, balancing authorities and transmission operators FERC directed NERC to submit a compliance filing by November 21, 2016 to modify violation risk factor designations Requirement R1 of IRO-018-1 to high Requirements R1 and R2 of TOP-010-1 to high. 5