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Figure 1.2 Regional Market Shares in V2V Communications in 2014 (%) 2014 Figure 1.3 Market Share Forecast of OEM & Aftermarket DSRC Installation Revenues 2019 25.0% Americas Europe Asia-Pacific RoW OEM Aftermarket 1.2 V2X Market Segmentation Overview Figure 1.4 V2V, V2I & V2X Market Segmentation Overview V2X-Connected Car V2V V2I V2P V2H IN-V OEM V2V ETC, EPP DSRC Smartphones By type of Connectivity Aftermarket V2V Road Side Units By Service Provider Page 15
Table 3.3 Total DSRC Installations Forecast 2014-2024 (Million Units, AGR%, CAGR%) Million units 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total DSRC Installations 24.17 25.98 30.82 39.28 55.59 79.16 126.90 181.29 229.63 277.97 332.36 AGR(%) 33.3 7.5 18.6 27.5 41.5 42.4 60.3 42.9 26.7 21.1 19.6 CAGR(%) 2014-2019 26.8% 2019-24 33.2% CAGR(%) 2014-2024 30.0% Figure 3.5 Total DSRC Installations Forecasts 2014-2024 (Million Units, AGR%) M l U n i t s 400 300 200 100 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total DSRC Installations AGR(%) 20 % One of the most important challenges that the V2V market faces in 2014 is the cost of DSRC installation for both the OEMs and vehicle owners. As Table 3.3 shows, in 2014, the average cost of fitting DSRC for OEMs is $194 and for the end-user product buyers $369 respectively. This substantial cost restricts OEMs from offering DSRC solutions for V2V communications as a part of the standard equipment. However, increased competition between aftermarket vendors and OEMs, as the latter will introduce their V2X solutions, combined with economies of scale from the production of DSRC units will drive down the cost of DSRC by 69.1% for OEMs and by 28.2% respectively from 2014 to 2024. The reduction of DSRC s cost will remove one of the most significant barriers to broad adoption of V2V Communication systems. 80 60 40 0 A G R ( ) Table 3.4 Cost of DSRC Installations In New Vehicles for OEMs & Consumers 2014, 2019, 2024 ($) DSRC Installation Cost per vehicle 2014 2019 2024 Price Change 2014-2024 Average Cost for the OEM ($) 194 170 60-69.1% Average Cost for the consumer ($) 369 329 265-28.2% According to NHTSA s report Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications: Readiness of V2V Technology for Application published in August 2014, V2V equipment and supporting communications functions would cost approximately $341 to $350 per vehicle in 2020 with the potential to decrease to $209 to $227 by 2058, as manufacturers learning curve increases. Page 49
6. Expert Opinion 6.1 Expert Opinion-Savari Savari is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, USA and aims to bring self-driving cars to life. Since inception, the company has been working with a consortium of U.S. Department of Transportation and major automotive manufacturers around the world to bring DSRC technology to commercialization. The company is a chosen supplier for various Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) procurements commissioned by the U.S Department of Transportation including the V2V testing in Ann Harbor, the SafeTrip-21, the E-VII program, as well as the Connected Vehicle Technology Research Project. Savary is now working with major Tier-1 suppliers to license its technology into their next generation cars. Visiongain spoke to Ravi Puvvala, Savari s Chief Executive Officer in July 2014 and we are grateful for his contribution. Mr. Puvvala has 20 years of experience working in the telecommunications industry, including leading positions at Nokia and Qualcomm Atheros. He serves as an advisory member with various transportation institutes and government bodies. 6.1.1 Savari s Role in the V2V & V2I Market Visiongain: Please give us a little background about Savari s related products and service offerings in the Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Market. Savari: You have probably heard about self-driving cars. Our company s vision is to make automated vehicles. The difference between self-driving cars and automated vehicles is that the latter is a vehicle which communicates with the infrastructure all the time and ensures that driving itself is safer. For example, consider when you are walking or driving on the road and you are trying to make decisions on your own to cross an intersection e.t.c - it can be very hard to make the right decisions. But if you are in constant communication with the drivers, for example, if you are making eye-to-eye contact with the driver who is about to crash you, it makes it a lot easier to go through an intersection is now absolutely safe. That is the goal of our company, to make the vision of automated vehicles a reality. Page 77
7.1 Leading OEMs in the V2V & V2I Market 7.2 BMW AG Company Overview Table 7.2 BMW AG Overview 2014 (Revenue, Market Cap., Car Production, HQ, Global Car Sales Market Share 2012, No of Employees, Ticker, Contact, Website) Group Revenue 2013: $104.6bn ( 76.05bn) / 2012: $93bn ( 76,8bn) Market Capitalisation ($ml) 76,330 Car Production 2012: 2.065ml cars Global Car Sales Market share 2013: 3.8% No of Employees 2013: 110,351 Headquarters Ticker IR Contact Website Munich, Germany FWB: BMW ir@bmwgroup.com www.bmwgroup.com Source: BMW, Bloomberg, Visiongain 2014 Figure 7.2 BMW Group Car Sales Overview 2011, 2012, 2013 (ml) Figure 7.3 Market Share in 2013 BMW Group s Sales in Selected Regions (%) 2.0 1.65 1.85 1.96 China 1.5 20% 20% Germany 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 2012 2013 BMW Group Car Sales 21% 26% 13% Western Europe North America Rest of the World Source: BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) is a German automobile, motorcycle and engine manufacturing company founded in 1916. The company sells its luxury cars and motorcycles under the brands BMW, Mini, Rolls Royce and Motorrad. BMW operates through 3 segments: Automotive: The Automotive segment develops, manufactures, assembles, and sells cars and off-road vehicles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands, as well as offers Page 89