FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 601 California Street San Francisco, California 94108 415-392-5763 Tabulations From a Survey of California Likely Voters Measuring Voter Preferences on Prop. 64 (Marijuana Legalization) and Prop. 63 (Firearms, Ammunition Sales) - prepared for the - Capitol Alert and the Sacramento Bee September 23, 2016 1
Introduction This volume presents the statistical data developed from a September 2016 Field-IGS Poll, conducted jointly by The Field Poll and UC Berkeley s Institute of Governmental Studies using YouGov s online panel. The results in this volume are based on the responses of 942 likely voters in California, although some of the questions are based on a random subsample of voters statewide. Data collection was completed September 7-13, 2016 in English and Spanish by YouGov, which administered the survey among California registered voters included as part of its online panel of over 1.5 million U.S. residents. YouGov panel members were invited to participate in the poll through an invitation email containing a link to the survey, and were selected using a proprietary sampling technology frame that establishes interlocking targets, so that the characteristics of the voters interviewed match the demographic, political and regional profile of the overall California registered voter population. To help ensure diversity among poll respondents, YouGov recruits its panelists using a variety of methods, including web-based advertising and email campaigns, partner-sponsored solicitations, and telephone-to-web recruitment or mail-to-web recruitment. Difficult-to-reach populations are supplemented through more specialized recruitment efforts, including telephone and mail surveys. The Field Poll and the Institute of Governmental Studies were jointly responsible for developing all questions included in the survey and its translation into Spanish. After survey administration, the YouGov data file was forwarded to The Field Poll for processing. The Field Poll then took the lead in developing and applying post-stratification weights to more precisely align the sample to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of the California registered voter population both overall and by region. The Field Poll was also responsible for determining which voters in the survey were most likely to vote in this year s election. 2
Guide to Reading the Tables The question or questions upon which the data are based is shown at the top of each table. Tables are percentaged vertically with the raw percentage base appearing at the top of each column. The data have been weighted to known parameters of the statewide registered voter population. All percentages and frequencies reported in each table are therefore weighted tabulations. In instances where percentages are calculated on small bases (e.g., when the base is fewer than 100 respondents) the reader is urged to interpret the data with caution, since results are subject to larger levels of sampling error. Throughout the tables an asterisk is used to denote a value of less than 1/2 of 1%. A hyphen indicates zero value. On some tables the percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions. s of subgroups used in the tabulations may add to less than the total number of respondents due to some respondents not reporting that characteristic. 3
Regional Subgroup Definitions Section Southern CA : rthern CA: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial and Kern counties all other 48 California counties Area Coastal Counties: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Mendocino, Humboldt, Del rte Inland counties: all other 38 California counties Region Los Angeles: Los Angeles county Other South South Coast: Central Valley: SF Bay Area: Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Imperial and San Luis Obispo counties San Diego County and Orange counties Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo Other rth: Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del rte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity, Tuolumne 4
Questions Asked Proposition 63: FIREARMS. AMMUNITION SALES. INITIATIVE STATUTE. Requires background check and Department of Justice authorization to purchase ammunition. Prohibits possession of large-capacity ammunition magazines. Establishes procedures for enforcing laws prohibiting firearm possession by specified persons. Requires Department of Justice s participation in federal National Instant Criminal Background Check System. Fiscal Impact: Increased state and local court and law enforcement costs, potentially in the tens of millions of dollars annually, related to a new court process for removing firearms from prohibited persons after they are convicted. If the election were being held today, how would you vote on Proposition 63? YES; NO; UNDECIDED Proposition 64: MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION. INITIATIVE STATUTE. Legalizes marijuana under state law, for use by adults 21 or older. Imposes state taxes on sales and cultivation. Provides for industry licensing and establishes standards for marijuana products. Allows local regulation and taxation. Fiscal Impact: Additional tax revenues from high hundreds of millions of dollars to over $1 billion annually, mostly dedicated to specific purposes. Reduced criminal justice costs of tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were being held today, how would you vote on Proposition 64? YES; NO; UNDECIDED 5
Prop 63 (Banner 1) Likely voters (Form C) Answer Total Southern CA Section Area Region Party Registration Likely voters Other rthern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely rther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Version C vote choice Proposition 63 483 281 202 318 165 112 83 86 81 105 16 226 146 111 483-493 279 214 331 162 128 83 68 83 105 26 219 141 133 493-100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 296 161 135 213 83 83 47 31 44 74 17 181 39 76 296-60.1% 57.9% 63.0% 64.4% 51.2% 64.7% 57.3% 45.6% 53.2% 70.4% 64.4% 82.7% 27.7% 57.0% 60.1% - 150 87 63 86 63 33 25 28 31 23 9 14 89 46 150-30.3% 31.1% 29.3% 26.1% 39.1% 26.0% 30.8% 41.2% 37.0% 21.7% 35.6% 6.6% 63.1% 34.8% 30.3% - 47 30 16 31 16 11 10 9 8 8-23 12 11 47-9.5% 10.8% 7.7% 9.4% 9.7% 8.9% 11.9% 13.2% 9.8% 7.9% - 10.7% 8.8% 8.2% 9.5% - 1 1-1 - 1 - - - - - - 1-1 - 0.1% 0.2% - 0.2% - 0.5% - - - - - - 0.4% - 0.1% - t likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 91 6
Prop 63 (Banner 2) Likely voters (Form C) Answer Total Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Version C vote choice Proposition 63 483 235 248 291 119 31 25 17 55 74 55 165 134 247 136 100 98 380 493 246 247 316 101 29 29 19 59 88 52 157 137 250 146 97 103 384 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 296 123 173 184 69 17 20 5 41 55 33 88 79 145 94 57 66 226 60.1% 50.1% 70.0% 58.4% 68.6% 59.4% 70.9% 27.5% 68.5% 62.9% 63.1% 56.5% 57.6% 58.1% 64.6% 58.5% 64.3% 58.9% 150 100 50 106 23 5 5 11 11 19 17 60 43 85 35 30 30 119 30.3% 40.5% 20.2% 33.6% 22.7% 16.0% 17.9% 58.0% 18.0% 21.2% 32.5% 38.6% 31.4% 33.9% 23.9% 30.9% 28.6% 30.9% 47 22 24 25 9 7 3 3 8 13 2 8 15 19 17 10 7 39 9.5% 9.1% 9.8% 7.9% 8.6% 24.6% 11.2% 14.5% 13.5% 15.3% 4.4% 5.0% 11.0% 7.8% 11.5% 10.7% 6.6% 10.2% 1 1-1 - - - - - 1 - - - 1 - - 1-0.1% 0.2% - 0.2% - - - - - 0.7% - - - 0.2% - - 0.6% - Field Research Corporation Table 92 7
Prop 63 (Banner 3) Likely voters (Form C) Answer Total Very conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education w and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Very Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Version C vote choice Proposition 63 483 47 83 163 108 79 334 149-50 86 72 62 52 98 78 204 136 65 493 49 80 158 109 94 334 158-58 81 71 59 59 99 87 153 147 105 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 296 6 21 98 81 86 189 107-41 46 45 38 33 60 44 84 91 77 60.1% 12.9% 26.5% 62.4% 74.5% 91.5% 56.4% 67.8% - 70.4% 56.3% 63.0% 64.5% 56.5% 60.9% 50.9% 54.5% 61.7% 73.5% 150 39 53 42 14 2 114 36-12 23 23 14 24 31 31 54 42 22 30.3% 78.8% 66.8% 26.5% 12.8% 1.7% 34.0% 22.7% - 20.5% 28.5% 31.9% 24.6% 40.4% 31.4% 35.8% 35.5% 28.6% 20.7% 47 4 5 17 14 6 32 15-5 12 4 6 1 8 12 15 14 6 9.5% 8.3% 6.8% 10.7% 12.7% 6.8% 9.4% 9.5% - 9.2% 15.2% 5.1% 10.9% 2.1% 7.7% 13.3% 10.0% 9.2% 5.8% 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - - - - - 1 - - - 1-0.1% - - 0.4% - - 0.2% - - - - - - 1.0% - - - 0.4% - Post graduate Field Research Corporation Table 93 8
Prop 63 (Banner 4) Likely voters (Form C) Answer Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Total t Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) A B C Version C vote choice Proposition 63 483 296 156 224 259 140 99 53 191 100 383 - - 483 493 302 158 242 251 140 90 65 199 102 391 - - 493 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - - 100.0% 296 172 107 147 149 63 58 50 125 51 245 - - 296 60.1% 56.8% 67.6% 60.7% 59.5% 45.4% 65.0% 76.8% 62.7% 49.8% 62.8% - - 60.1% 150 110 29 68 81 62 26 11 51 39 110 - - 150 30.3% 36.6% 18.5% 28.2% 32.4% 44.2% 29.1% 16.4% 25.7% 38.6% 28.2% - - 30.3% 47 19 22 26 20 15 5 4 23 12 35 - - 47 9.5% 6.4% 13.9% 10.9% 8.1% 10.4% 5.2% 6.8% 11.6% 11.6% 8.9% - - 9.5% 1 1-1 - - 1 - - - 1 - - 1 0.1% 0.2% - 0.2% - - 0.7% - - - 0.2% - - 0.1% Field Research Corporation Table 94 9
Prop 64 (Banner 1) Likely voters (Form A&C) Answer Total Southern CA Section Area Region Party Registration Likely voters Other rthern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely rther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Version A vote choice Proposition 64 942 544 398 630 312 224 161 159 161 200 37 436 284 222 942-955 547 408 658 296 254 163 130 154 199 55 423 275 256 955-100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 575 340 235 425 150 180 93 68 78 122 35 298 110 167 575-60.2% 62.2% 57.5% 64.5% 50.6% 70.8% 57.0% 52.0% 50.3% 61.2% 64.2% 70.4% 40.0% 65.1% 60.2% - 300 164 136 184 116 58 58 48 65 58 12 89 146 64 300-31.4% 30.1% 33.3% 28.0% 39.0% 22.9% 35.8% 36.8% 42.5% 29.3% 21.9% 21.1% 53.2% 25.1% 31.4% - 77 39 38 46 31 15 9 15 11 19 8 35 19 23 77-8.0% 7.1% 9.2% 7.0% 10.4% 6.0% 5.7% 11.2% 7.2% 9.5% 13.9% 8.3% 6.8% 8.9% 8.0% - 3 3-3 - 1 2 - - - - 1-2 3-0.3% 0.6% - 0.5% - 0.3% 1.4% - - - - 0.2% - 0.9% 0.3% - t likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 95 10
Prop 64 (Banner 2) Likely voters (Form A&C) Answer Total Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Version A vote choice Proposition 64 942 459 483 581 233 51 44 33 108 135 118 321 260 488 250 204 198 736 955 482 473 623 194 49 49 39 111 156 115 305 268 505 257 193 212 734 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 575 289 285 386 110 33 24 22 66 103 79 188 138 281 183 110 123 445 60.2% 60.0% 60.4% 61.9% 56.6% 67.3% 47.7% 57.3% 60.2% 66.0% 68.6% 61.7% 51.5% 55.7% 71.2% 57.2% 57.9% 60.7% 300 169 131 182 71 13 19 15 36 40 27 98 99 182 49 69 74 224 31.4% 35.1% 27.7% 29.2% 36.6% 25.9% 39.0% 38.9% 32.6% 25.5% 23.6% 32.1% 37.0% 36.0% 19.1% 35.9% 34.9% 30.5% 77 23 54 52 13 3 7 1 8 12 9 19 28 39 25 13 15 62 8.0% 4.7% 11.4% 8.4% 6.8% 6.8% 13.2% 3.8% 7.3% 7.9% 7.8% 6.3% 10.6% 7.6% 9.7% 6.8% 6.9% 8.5% 3 1 2 3 - - - - - 1 - - 2 3 - - 1 2 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% - - - - - 0.6% - - 0.9% 0.6% - - 0.4% 0.3% Field Research Corporation Table 96 11
Prop 64 (Banner 3) Likely voters (Form A&C) Answer Total Very conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education w and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Very Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Version A vote choice Proposition 64 942 98 170 298 210 153 657 285-85 170 146 137 101 184 144 398 261 139 955 101 165 300 208 167 662 293-87 155 139 138 114 201 167 300 268 220 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 575 28 69 176 154 138 397 177-52 104 75 79 66 136 80 170 176 148 60.2% 27.9% 41.9% 58.7% 73.9% 82.7% 60.0% 60.6% - 59.5% 67.2% 54.3% 57.5% 58.1% 67.8% 48.1% 56.7% 65.7% 67.4% 300 64 89 90 39 15 209 91-17 45 50 49 44 51 74 100 77 49 31.4% 63.5% 54.0% 30.1% 18.7% 9.2% 31.5% 31.2% - 19.4% 29.3% 35.7% 35.6% 38.1% 25.6% 44.2% 33.4% 28.8% 22.2% 77 9 7 31 15 14 54 23-18 5 14 10 4 10 13 30 14 20 8.0% 8.6% 4.1% 10.2% 7.4% 8.1% 8.1% 7.9% - 21.0% 3.5% 10.0% 7.0% 3.8% 5.1% 7.7% 9.9% 5.1% 9.3% 3 - - 3 - - 2 1 - - - - - - 3 - - 1 2 0.3% - - 1.1% - - 0.4% 0.3% - - - - - - 1.6% - - 0.3% 1.1% Post graduate Field Research Corporation Table 97 12
Prop 64 (Banner 4) Likely voters (Form A&C) Answer Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Total t Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) A B C Version A vote choice Proposition 64 942 579 304 447 495 275 192 109 366 214 728 459-483 955 599 295 479 475 272 189 119 375 222 733 462-493 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 575 340 196 298 277 123 89 76 287 89 485 273-302 60.2% 56.7% 66.4% 62.1% 58.3% 45.1% 47.2% 63.8% 76.6% 40.3% 66.2% 59.0% - 61.3% 300 215 68 144 156 128 82 25 65 120 180 152-148 31.4% 35.9% 23.1% 30.0% 32.8% 46.8% 43.6% 21.0% 17.4% 54.2% 24.5% 32.8% - 30.1% 77 41 31 37 40 22 17 18 20 12 64 37-40 8.0% 6.9% 10.4% 7.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.8% 15.2% 5.3% 5.6% 8.8% 8.0% - 8.1% 3 3-1 2-1 - 2-3 1-2 0.3% 0.5% - 0.2% 0.5% - 0.5% - 0.6% - 0.4% 0.2% - 0.5% Field Research Corporation Table 98 13