1/14/211 From Recovery to Expansion: How and When The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Sh Schar Faculty Chair and University it Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University uary 14, 211 Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight Quarter y 29 October 21 uary 211 29 Q1 -. -4.9** Q2-2.1 -.7** Q3.6 1.6** Q4 1.1.** 21 Q1 1.4 3.7** Q2 2.7 1.7** Q3 2.3 1. 2.6** Q4* 33 3.3 19 1.9 37 3.7 211 Q1* 2.2 2.2 3.8 Q2* 2.2 3.1 Q3* 2.7 2.4 Q4* 3.7 3.3 *Projected **Actual GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
1/14/211 U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator 29 21 211 GDP 3 rd Quarter of Previous Year -.% + 2.2% + 2.6% ISM Manufacturing Index 32.4 [-].9 [+] 7. [+] ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 37.3 [-] 48.7 [-] 7. [+] U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator 29 21 211 Personal Income -.2% +.4% +.3% Consumer Confidence Present Consumer Confidence Expectations 29.4 [-] 18.8 [-] 23. [+] 43.8 [-] 7.6 [+] 71.9 [-] Retail Sales -1.8% 1.3%.8% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
1/14/211 U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator 29 21 211 Job Growth (-Dec) - 33K - 11K 13K Unemployment 6.7% 1.% 9.4% New Unemployment Claims 492K 432K 388K U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator 29 21 211 New Home Sales -2.9% 11.3%.% Existing Home Sales -8.6% 7.4%.6% 3-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage.1%.8% 4.86% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
1/14/211 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions 12 % Change in GDP 1 8 6 4 2 197-Q1 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 21-Q4 29-Q2 1 2 3 4 6 Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (29 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast) U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 26 213 % Forecast > > > > > > > 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
1/14/211 114. 112. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices 26 21 RECESSION > > > 11. LI L.I. 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 98. 96. C.I. -6 Feb-7-7 Aug-7-7 Feb-8-8 Aug-8-8 Feb-9-9 Aug-9-9 Feb-1-1 Aug-1-1 6 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices 6 MFG NON-MFG 4 4 3 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1/14/211 THOUSANDS 3 1-1 -3 - -7 Annual Change in Jobs US 194-21 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS 3 1 Dec = + 1,26-1 -3 - -7 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
1/14/211 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 27 December 29 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs -1,63 Retail Trade -1,26 Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing -2,192 Financial Construction -1,79 Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total - 8,363, 3 791-44 -7-474 -2-377 69-37 -2-2 -1-1 - 1 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Job Change by Sector December 29 December 21 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -2 (s) Total = 1,124 422 366 116 24 136-72 -1 6 6 28-37 -4-2 2 4 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
1/14/211 s 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average) 417 U.S. Unemployment Rate % 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 9.4 % GI Fcst 1 9.7 11 9.3 12 8.7 13 8.1 14 7.3 1 6.7 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
1/14/211 Consumer Confidence 16 14 12 1 Expectations 8 6 4 Present Situation ti 2 1 Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 4 3 2 1-1 Consumer Prices 21-21 Forecast > > > > > > 21 214 213 212 211 21 29 28 27 26 2 24 23 22 21 Source: BLS, Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
1/14/211 Interest Rates 21-21 8 Forecast > > > > > > 7 6 4 3 2 1 Fed 3-Yr $/barrel 12 1 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > > > 8 6 4 2 Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
1/14/211 % 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2 4.7 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays 3 3. 3.4 2. 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.4 -.3-1.2 1.8 Forecast > > > > > 3.2 2. 2. 2.1 1.8 Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 3 2 U.S. Economic Performance 1 GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures -1 State & Local Federal -2 Bus. Inv. -3 Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
1/14/211 The Washington Economy US GDP and Washington GRP % 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Washington GRP US GDP 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
1/14/211 Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% 12-Month Moving Average -3.% -4.% Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 1.%.%.% -.% -1.% 12-Month Moving Average -1.% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
1/14/211 Thousands 16 12 8 4-4 -8 Avg. = 36, -8 Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1991-21 36 38 44 61 7 92 2 117 6 71 63 41 23 1 13-3 -2 21 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s 1 Annual Job Change MOTYC 1 - -1 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
1/14/211 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia 6 4 2-2 -4 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban yland 6 4 2-2 -4 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
1/14/211 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia 6 4 2-2 -4 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change s Annual Data 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 28 29 21 26 24 22 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
1/14/211 s Annual Data 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 22 24 26 Annual Job Change District of Columbia 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 22 24 26 Annual Job Change Suburban yland 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
1/14/211 s Annual Data 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 22 24 26 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change - Manufacturing s Annual Data 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
1/14/211 Annual Job Change - Information s Annual Data 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 28 29 21 26 24 22 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Transportation and Utilities s Annual Data 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 28 29 21 26 24 22 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
1/14/211 Annual Job Change - Construction s Annual Data 1 1 - -1-1 -2-2 -3 28 29 21 26 24 22 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change - Financial s Annual Data 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 28 29 21 26 24 22 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
1/14/211 s Annual Data 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 Annual Job Change - Retail 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 Wholesale Trade 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
1/14/211 s Annual Data 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 State & Local Government 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 Professional and Business Services s Annual Data 22 24 26 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
1/14/211 s Annual Data 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 Leisure & Hospitality 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 Other Services 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
1/14/211 s Annual Data 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 Education and Health Services 26 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 22 24 26 Federal Government 28 29 21 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
1/14/211 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financiali Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 29 21 - -4-3 -3 1 (s) Total 49,2 1 2-2 -1 1 2 3 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1 1 12 13 19 (s) 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 1 Largest Job kets Job Change 9 1 Washington + 49,2 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
1/14/211 Unemployment Rate 14 12 1 8 6 4 1.2 DC 9.3 U.S. 6.3 SMD 6. MSA 4.8 - NVA 2 Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted % 14 12 1 Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate ember 21 1 US 8 9.3 6. 6 4 2 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
1/14/211 Economic Forecast Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ 16 14 Total 12 1 8 6 Procurement 4 2 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27
1/14/211 Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area Total Federal Procurement in the Region for Past 3 Years = $794 Billion 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 $ Billions 1 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 36.6% Federal 34.9% Procurement 19.2% Other: Health/Education, Media GMU Center for Regional Analysis 28
1/14/211 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 D.C. 1.1 -.6 1. 1. 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.4 Sub. MD -4.3-26.8 1. 1. 13.6 14.9 1.6 14.6 No. VA 3.6-24. 9. 22.1 2.7 22.3 22.6 2.3 REGION 9. -1.9 21. 48.1 44. 46. 47.8 44.2 Average Annual Change 199-21 = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 29-214 based on 21 Benchmark data from BLS 7 % 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Economic Outlook (GRP) 21 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 29
1/14/211 % 8 6 4 2-2 -4 GDP/GRP 2-21 Washington U.S. 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis policy-cra.gmu.org GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3