THE FUTURE OF STORAGE Trend for HDD and SSD until 2022 1Q 2018 2018Toshiba Corporation 1
How to not predict the Future I think there is a world market for maybe five computers Thomas Watson, Chairman and CEO IBM, 1943 Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night Darryl F. Zanuck, CEO of 20 th Century Fox, 1946 There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home Kenneth Olsen, Founder and President of DEC, 1977 Rotating storage is going the way of the dodo Linus Torvald, Linux Creator, 2012 2
Hard Disk and SSD (and Tape) The Base for all Data Storage The Base for all Stored Data at Home/User (Smartphone, Tablet, Notebook, PC) at Business Enterprise (CRM, Databases) in the Infrastructure (Surveillance Systems, Industrial Application, IoT) in the Cloud (Website, Streaming Service, Social Network, Web-Shop) 3
Question Will SSD replace Hard Disks? Answer: Definetly Yes Maybe Yes Maybe No Defintely No Mobile & Local User created Data: IOPS & Mechanics Database, Hot Data : IOPS Driven Video and Surveillance Data: Sequential ok, $/GB Driven Cold and Archive Data: $/GB Driven 4
Driving Factor #1: Price per Capacity SSD Capacity Trend Ultra High Capacity 16TB 256TB Price Linear up HDD Capacity Trend Increase Capacity 8TB 10TB (air) 14TB (He) At similar unit cost (few 100$) 5
Driving Factor #2: Total required Capacity 2017 Total HDD Capacity shipped: Enterprise and Client ~672 ExaByte (Mio TB) in 404 Mio Units 5 EB: All Words ever spoken by Human Beings 2017 Total SSD Capacity shipped: ~69 ExaByte in 187 Mio Units Enterprise and Client (less than 10%) It would cost the NAND Industry Hundreds of Billions of Dollars to construct new Fabrication Plants to displace even 25% Within the next 5-10 years, it will be physically impossible to manufacture a sufficient number of SSDs to replace the HDD Base 200mm Investment needed for ONE LEADING EDGE FAB 300mm 450mm >$1B >$5B >$10B Source: Gartner / Trendfocus / TEE Estimates 6
Total Capacity Trend: HDD and SSD Source: Gartner 4Q17 Update 7
TAPE and HDD Disappearing? MP3 Player / Mobilephone Laptop / Notebook / Desktop PC Home NAS Enterprise NAS Enterprise Server / Storage / Backup Cloud Server / Storage / Backup Surveillance Storage Industrial Storage 8
Driving Factor: Power Consumption Net Data to be stored in 2020: 15 ZB (44 ZB total, 29 ZB discard, 13 ZB already installed, new install 2 ZB) With Redundancy (2.5x): 37.5 ZB (without Backup, just Replications in Storage/Datacenter) Average HDD Specification 2020 Capacity (Average) 16 TB Power Consumption per 3.5 Drive 10 W/Drive Storage Ctr+Network per Drive 5 W/Drive 37.5 ZB 16 TB x 15 W = 35000 MW One Large Nuclear Plant: 1000 MW 35 Nuclear Plants? (2014: USA: 100, France: 48) One Large Windmill: 6 MW 6000 Wind Mills?? Source: IDC / TEE Estimates 9
Why Toshiba? COMPETENT STRATEGIC PARTNER Broad portfolio of proven business and consumer HDD suitable for various applications Internal/External HDD, Enterprise/Client HDD, NAS Drives, Surveillance Drives, 2.5 /3.5 HDD, Smartphone storage Fastest growing HDD manufacturer Supplying HDD components to the world s top consumer brands Leading HDD and NAND flash manufacturer 50 years experience in the storage business Engineered in Japan, Toshiba in-house technology Toshiba factories with superior results in terms of improvement and innovation World s First Innovation leader World s first 2.5 PATA HDD (1990) World s first Automotive HDD (2001) World s first 0.85 HDD (2004) Inspired by our vision of Leading Storage Innovation, we are committed to being the leading storage device provider in the storage market. 10
Why Toshiba? TOSHIBA QUALITY, TOSHIBA RELIABILITY Proven enterprise reliability by adhering to highest industry design standards. Rigorous qualification process. *EP = Enterprise OEM 11
Why Toshiba? TOSHIBA COMPETENCY E-shelter Innovation Lab in Frankfurt Exhibitions and Events Laboratory in Düsseldorf 12
Internal HDD Overview CLASS DIFFERENTIATOR Client & NAS Enterprise/ Data Centre 13
Enterprise Capacity MG07 Series Enterprise Capacity Hard Drive - MG07ACA World s First CMR based 14TB Server Hard Drive (an industry first!) Optimized balance of capacity, workload & performance WW fastest 14TB CMR Server HDD Toshiba first Helium-sealed HDD Range of high capacities 12TB, 14TB KEY FEATURES Massive 14/12 TB data storage capacity Based on CMR technology Low power consumption due to helium design SATA 6Gbit/s interface 7200RPM performance, 256 MiB cache 2.5M hour MTTF 550TB/yr. workload rating (10x desktop) Power loss protection (PLP) Rotational vibration compensation technology SED options Advanced Format options KEY BENEFITS Low power consumption (-28% to previous generation) Low latency for optimal performance High power efficiency (IOPS/W) Optimized balance of capacity, workload, performance Enterprise grade durability for optimum uptime reliability Helium-sealed Toshiba Laser Welding Technology For Enterprise server & storage systems with need for capacity Cloud- and hyperscale storage systems Interface Capacities Specifications 6Gbit/s SATA 14TB/12TB Rotational Speed 7200 RPM Buffer Size 256 MiB Sector Length Technology 512e & 4Kn Max Sustained Data Transfer Rate, Outer Diameter Read 260 MB/s (14TB), 254 MB/s (12TB) Workload 550 TB/yr. MTTF 2.500.000 hours AFR 0.35% Unrecoverable Error Rate 10 per 10 16 bits read Power Active 7,6W Active Idle (Idle A) 4,6W Weight (max) Limited Warranty Enterprise archive systems Virtualized storage systems requiring a balance of capacity and performance 770g 5 yrs. Capacity/Sector Size 512E 4Kn Model Numbers 14TB MG07ACA14TE MG07ACA14TA 12TB MG07ACA12TE MG07ACA12TA 14
Toshiba s Commitment to YOU Develop and manufacture the Technologies to store your Zettabytes of Data in an economic way on reliable and performant Hard Disk Drives. Cooperate with all Players in the Value Chain Consultancy, Roadshow Support, Proof-of-Concept Activities And call us, challenge us! We are here for you to implement......the FUTURE OF STORAGE 15
Thank You! (Coffee Break) (caffeine) (ethanol) (nicotine) 16
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