Lisbon May 3-4, 2017 Evolution to 5G from a 4G/LTE World Alan Hadden www.haddentelecoms.com @alanhadden 1
Global MBB footprint with 4G/LTE Over 80% of world s population may be covered by LTE systems by end 2022 (> 50% today estimated) c. 600 commercially launched LTE networks* in nearly 200 countries - expect 650+ networks total by end 2017 2 billion LTE subs connected (Feb 2017) - 25% market technology share - forecast 4 billion LTE subs in 2020 (Ovum) *includes LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro systems 2
Rapid migration to LTE-Advanced 1 in 3 operators commercially launched LTE-Advanced systems - main industry trend, global - Majority for deployments in EMEA Most support 300 Mbps DL speed (for Cat 6 user devices) - no. of 450 Mbps (Cat 9) growing as device availability improves - even faster speeds being introduced into some markets - Gigabit LTE is a reality with LTE-Advanced Pro systems launched 3
Technology evolution global forecast Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent) 5G LTE WCDMA/HSPA GSM/EDGE-only TD-SCDMA CDMA-only 100 80 2016 2022 2016 2022 50% LTE 2016 2022 50% WCDMA/ HSPA 55% LTE 2016 2022 50% WCDMA/ HSPA 70% LTE 2016 2022 90% LTE 2016 2022 65% LTE 25% 5G 60 65% GSM/ EDGE-only 50% WCDMA/ HSPA 50% WCDMA/ HSPA 25% of subscriptions in North America and 10% in Asia Pacific will be for 5G in 2022 40 40% GSM/ EDGE-only 20 0 Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific Latin America Central and Eastern Europe Western Europe North America Ericsson Mobility Report 4
LTE-Advanced Pro LTE-Advanced Pro users enables the Gigabit LTE era and new business opportunities: 3GPP Release 13 & beyond LTE deployment in unlicensed spectrum NB-IoT and Cat M1 for LPWA applications (cellular IoT) Extends/enhances CA D2D Lower latency Higher order MIMO Advanced antenna features Faster speeds: Gigabit MBB Mission critical PTT and more. Essential bridge from 4G to 5G 19 commercially launched LTE-Advanced Pro networks Some 5G-like features will appear in LTE-Advanced systems: Massive MIMO Network slicing 5
The Internet of Things opportunity Ericsson Mobility Report From 2018 mobile phone connections will be surpassed by IoT 16 billion IoT devices forecast by 2021 IoT includes: Connected cars Machinery Utility meters Remote metering Consumer electronics 6
Current 3GPP CIoT solutions 7
NB-IoT, LTE-M deployments NB-IoT 4 commercial networks (Telus CAN, T-Mobile NL, Telia NO, Vodafone ES) - several more are very close to commercial launch A further 40 networks in 29 countries trialling, demonstrating or planning to deploy - plus commitments to deploy by multi-country operator groups LTE-M 2 commercial networks (Verizon and AT&T both in US) 12 additional networks in 10 countries trialling, demonstrating or planning to deploy Source: GSA 8
Massive MTC LTE-Advanced Pro (Rel-13) addresses the needs of massive MTC use cases as NB1 (aka NB-IoT) feature Rel-14 adds support for positioning, multicast and non-anchor carrier operation Rel-15 adds small cell support plus TDD support for in-band, guard band & standalone operational modes Diagram: Grandmetric blog 9
Current 5G expectations Not only about speed Much more than mobile broadband connectivity 5G enables the industrial Internet Industry transformation Smart Cities / IoT Connected cars...and much more AND.. new spectrum will be needed 10
Opportunities using 5G Cloudification Big data NFV and SDN Connecting the unconnected Enterprise mobility / digital transformation Addressing the needs of vertical industries Major 5G research activities under way q APAC including China q Europe q USA 5G service launch in 2020 may be sooner Autonomous vehicles 5G is the foundation for realising the full potential of the Networked Society and is absolutely necessary: q to address mass-market adoption scale q To enable many new use cases q to allow organisations to move into new markets and build new revenue streams with new business models and use cases 11
5G in a nutshell Source: Viavi Solutions, February 2017 12
5G trial results Participating system vendors: Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, ZTE Source: Viavi Solutions, February 2017 Spectrum bands used range from < 3GHz to 86GHz 13
5G standards 3GPP continues to expand the LTE platform continuing on from Rel-13 to future Rel-14, Rel-15 including enhancements to LTE-Advanced Pro 5G system standardisation is underway in 3GPP March 2017: Agreement on an earlier completion date of March 2018 of Non-Standalone (NSA) 5G NR mode for enhanced MBB (this enables acceleration of standards-based field trials from 2019) Standard for Standalone (SA) 5G NR mode by September 2018 (unchanged) 14
Spectrum for 5G systems New spectrum is needed for 5G Greatest economies of scale will come if number of different bands used for 5G is kept small Leading system vendors* favour these bands as a basis for harmonisation on a global or regional basis 600 MHz, 700 MHz 3.3 3.4 GHz, 3.4 3.6 GHz, 3.6 3.8 GHz, 3.8 4.2 GHz o 4.4 4.99 GHz 24.25 29.5 GHz 29.5 33.4 GHz 37 43.5 GHz 66 86 GHz * Members of the GSA Spectrum Group 15
Rel-15 improvements for LTE 1024QAM to improve spectral efficiency for small cell LTE deployments LAA/eLAA to enable operation in CBRS band (3.5 3.7GHz) in the US Improving LTE operation in unlicensed spectrum Enhancements to V2X Improvements to NB-IoT Diagram: Grandmetric blog 16
5G deployment prospects At least 18 operators announced commitments to deploy pre-standards 5G networks in 13 countries First launches are expected to be in Italy and US 17
Thank you! Alan Hadden www.haddentelecoms.com @alanhadden 18