[Type text] [Type text] [Type text] ISSN : 0974-74 Volume 0 Issue BoTechnology 04 An Indan Journal FULL PAPER BTAIJ 0() 04 [684-689] Revew on Chna s sports ndustry fnancng market based on market -orented development of sports ndustry ABSTRACT Lu Le Tanjn Polytechnc Unversty Tanjn 0087 (CHINA) Sports ndustry fnancng market can t keep long-term stablty. It s manly because there s rratonalty n rsk assessment of fnancng project. Wth the current stuaton rsks n sports ndustry fnancng project should be further studed and buld a complete evaluaton model to change the condton thoroughly. Frstly specfc process of buldng a comprehensve fuzzy apprasal model wll be ntroduced n ths research. Wth the subject of constructon dmenson and constructon foundaton constructon elements wll be dscussed n detal. Secondly the thess wll dscuss comprehensve fuzzy apprasal process of branch rsk probablty from the constructon of factor sets and weght sets makng rsk probablty can be accurately calculated. Constructon of sngle factor assessment matrx and comprehensve fuzzy apprasal wll be dscussed later to calculate rsk probablty accurately. Fnally three evaluaton models ncludng level of evaluaton objects from evaluatng ndexes comprehensve fuzzy apprasal of branch rsk damage degree and comprehensve evaluaton of trunk rsk wll be studed to keep hgh accuracy of rsk probablty calculaton. These are man research deas n ths feld and show the am and content of the research. KEYWORDS Sports ndustry; Fnancal stuaton; Evaluaton model; Rsk probablty. Trade Scence Inc.
BTAIJ 0() 04 Lu Le 68 INTRODUCTION There are certan defcences n the rsk probablty of sports ndustry fnancng market and the stuaton n Chna s also not satsfactory. The research n ths feld s manly from several aspects ncludng comprehensve fuzzy evaluaton model buldng of fnancng projects n sports ndustry and comprehensve fuzzy evaluaton of branch rsk probablty showng the scentfcty and ratonalty n ths feld. FUZZY SYNTHETIC EVALUATION MODEL CONSTRUCTION OF SPORTS INDUSTRY FINANCING PROJECT Constructon foundaton The man foundaton of rsk evaluaton system constructon s that some factors lke specfc results of rsk management plan and rsk dentfcaton are analyzed and consdered to make rsk and negatve effect of nvestment and fnancng n sport projects can be evaluated postvely. However n the ntal stage of sports ndustry fnancng rsks can t be fully reflected. As fnancng projects go on rsk factor wll ncrease []. There are dfferent complextes n dfferent fnancng projects so the accuracy of rsk evaluaton s subjected to data of rsk dentfcaton. Constructon dmenson Generally rsk dentfcaton system constructon of nvestment and fnancng n sports ndustry can be dvded nto four parts. For convenence n the analyss process of fnancng rsks n sports ndustry rsks are evaluated though decson tree flow chart and other specal ways. Rsks n dfferent level are named as follows. Root rsk also the hghest rsk s sports ndustry fnancng rsk. The second hghest rsk manly ncludes systematc rsk and unsystematc rsk. The thrd s branch rsk and the last at the bottom s leaf rsk. So rsk of project nvestment n sports ndustry can be shown n the form of rsk tree. Relatonshps among rsks are fully shown n Fgure. SURMHFWULVNRILQYHVWPHQWDQGILQDQFLQJ LQVSRUWVLQGXVWU\ URRWULVN V\VWHPDWLFULVN XQV\VWHPDWLF ULVN WUXQNULVN SROLWLFDOULVN HFRQRPLFULVN FXOWXUDOULVN WHFKQRORJ\ULVN PDQDJHPHQW ULVN RWKHUULVNV EUDQFKULVN OHDIULVN Fgure : Rsk tree model of nvestment and fnancng project n sports ndustry Two aspects should be consdered to evaluate rsks from the perspectve of the rsk s defnton. One s the calculaton of rsk probablty and the other s the specfc evaluaton of damage brought by rsks. However n the process of sports ndustry fnancng rsk of projects need to be evaluated accordng to the followng steps. In the evaluaton of leaf rsk rsk probablty should be calculated combned wth experts fndngs. Wth the arrangement of fndngs and calculaton structure rsks can be gotten through the fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton. Fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton s also appled to evaluate trunk rsk. Elements from branch rsk and leaf rsk can be combned to calculate rsk probablty. These factors make combned probablty and combned damage effectve and clear provdng the bass and guarantee for rsk calculaton of trunk rsk []. From the weght of root rsk the rsk of hghest layer can be effectvely calculated and correspondng result can be gotten. In ths way rsk of fnancng projects n sports ndustry can be evaluated effectvely. FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF BRANCH RISK PROBABILITY In the rsk tree model there are 6 man projects n the branch and leaf layer. To calculate rsk frequency n ths layer poltcal rsk(r)needs to be the man evaluaton object. And ths project can generate postve fuzzy evaluaton for other fve elements makng the calculaton of R rsk possble. Ths method also can be used n rsk calculaton n other branch
686 Revew on Chna s sports ndustry fnancng market based on market -orented development of sports ndustry BTAIJ 0() 04 and leaf layers. In the rsk evaluaton of nvestment and fnancng n sports ndustry specal case can be combned to evaluate rsk level. Buld the factor set In ths part fnancng rsks n the rsk tree model are lsted from three aspects. Frstly government and relevant departments nterfere too much n nvestment and fnancng(r). Secondly relatve legal systems are mperfect(r). Thrdly polcy changes frequently. Factor set of poltcal rsks(r)can be defned as X={RRR}. From ths defnton possble rsks can be analyzed effectvely by specal experence from experts. Qualtatve analyses results of fuzzy characterstcs can be generated from feasblty analyss of mportance. Buld the weght set In the progress of buldng weght sets three factors n poltcal rsks R need to be determned effectvely ncludng mportance degree among R R R. Weght coeffcents a compose the weght set A a a a. And a a 0( ) In the specal rsk evaluaton of fnancng projects n sports ndustry weght of branch rsk should be consdered accordng to the dfferences of objectve condtons fully reflectng the dfferences of weght sets. Weght coeffcents can be determned by expert nvestgaton method determnng weghts of dfferent factors accordng experts scorng []. However sometmes specal weght can t be determned because objectve factors are complcated so analytc herarchy process can be appled to determne weghts. Relatve weght between factors can be determned n accordance wth followng methods. Determne proporton quotent In the comparson of grade factors grade proportons can be assgned by -9 scale method as shown n TABLE. Scale TABLE : Meanng of -9 scale method Meanng Means two elements are equally mportant when they are compared Means the former element s a lttle more mportant than the latter when they are compared Means the former element s obvously more mportant than the latter when they are compared 7 Means the former element s ntensvely more mportant than the latter when they are compared 9 Means the former element s extremely more mportant than the latter when they are compared 468 Mean the above beleve the medan of determnaton If the mportance proporton of element and element j s W j the mportance proporton of element j recprocal and element s W W / W j j j Buld judgment matrx Based on evaluaton crtera the weghts of fve factors are marked and compared to get the judgment matrx of factor weghts as shown n TABLE. W represents the nature meetng three condtons Wj 0 Wj / Wj Wj. TABLE : Judgment matrx of factor weghts R R R R R a/ a a/ a R a / a a / a R a / a a / a Calculate weghts of varous factors Frstly normalze elements n judgment matrx through sequence gettng Wj W j. Secondly add together the sequences of element s from normalzaton gettng W j. Fnally normalze vector elements unformly determnng weght set effectvely [4]. Check consstency In the buldng of judgment matrx f A s more mportant than B B s more mportant than C t s obvously wrong that C s more mportant than A. For ths consstency checkng process s needed. The detaled steps are as follows:
BTAIJ 0() 04 Lu Le 687 Frstly calculate mn e / a e / a e / a and n= n ths process. Secondly ndexes of consstency need to be calculated further makng CI ( mn n) / ( n ). Thrdly search the mean random consstency ndexes RI and RI s shown n TABLE. TABLE : The table of random consstency ndexes N 4 6 7 8 9 0 R 0 0 0.8 0.90..4..4.4.47 Fnally calculate the consstency of relatve consstency ndexes. Generally f relatve ndexes gradually reduce judgment matrx has correspondng consstency or the judgment matrx needs to be adjusted. Buld evaluaton set The buldng of evaluaton set s that of rsk probablty. Ths process can be dvded nto two or more levels accordng real need. It can be dvded nto fve dfferent levels- very large large medum small and very small. Evaluaton set of poltcal rsks are manly composed of three elements. Here R represents poltcal rsks whle Y represents evaluaton set. Y very large medum small y y y For each element n the set each probablty can belong to the grade level of correspondng evaluaton whch forms the fuzzy set also the sngle element set for a certan factor. The elements n ths set range n the scale of [0]. ESTABLISH SINGLE FACTOR EVALUATION MATRIX To establsh sngle factor evaluaton matrx the frst element of rsk factors set of poltcal rsks should be evaluated by expert nvestgaton method and expert scorng method askng the experts n or out of the project to score. Weghted average s regarded as the evaluaton result []. Sngle factor evaluaton of the frst element s 为 R r r r whch s a subset of evaluaton set Y. And r represents the membershp degree of kthk 4 level n evaluaton set for the probablty of jth factor. The sngle factor evaluaton matrx R s: R rrr R R = rrr R r r r FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION Fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton s appled n the calculaton of weght set and the correspondng factor evaluaton matrx to get the evaluaton set B of poltcal rsk. Ths s the specal matrx: rrr AR ( a a a ) r rr ( b b b ) rrr The calculaton of evaluaton factors becomes poltcal factor ndexes. Speakng of the specal meanng poltcal ndex factors should be consdered. In ths stuaton b b and b represent the membershp degrees of very large medum and very small. DETERMINE THE OBJECT LEVEL ACCORDING TO EVALUATION INDEXES The level of poltcal rsk factors can be measured accordng to evaluaton ndexes and there are three ways as follows [6]. Weghted average Ths way takes normalzed ndexes as the factor s weght n correspondng evaluaton set and takes a weghted average of evaluaton elements. Rsk evaluaton set whch s non - quantfable should be quantfed frst then multply t by
688 Revew on Chna s sports ndustry fnancng market based on market -orented development of sports ndustry BTAIJ 0() 04 quantfed evaluaton ndexes. The ndexes are set n the range of [0 ]. For specal nvestment and fnancng projects ths range can be set accordng to real stuaton. The quantzaton parameters are set as shown n TABLE 4. TABLE 4 : Quantzaton parameters of evaluaton set of rsk probablty Level Very large Large Medum Small Very small Compute sgn P P P P4 P Quantzed value 0.9 0.7 0. 0. 0. The above result shows the rsk probablty wth the form of numbers. In the same way the specfc values of other rsks accordng to branch rsk can be recorded as p p p. P P ( b b b ) P P Maxmum membershp degree method The largest evaluaton factor s what s expected to be chosen from evaluaton factors. The man method s to provde the probablty brought by poltcal rsk factors and determne the specfc locaton from very large large medum small and very small. Ths method produces only one result whch s qualtatve. Fuzzy analytcal method Ths method can get specfc result from rsk probablty shown by evaluaton ndexes whch are vsual and clear. For evaluaton result ndexes should be normalzed and b b b b. The fuzzy and comprehensve evaluaton set after normalzaton s: / / / B b b b b b b b b b 0 0 0 0 FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF BRANCH RISK DAMAGE DEGREE In the analyss of specfc damage degree of rsks the chosen method supposes rsk probabltes are equal. When factors X s X X X the correspondng evaluaton set Y s Y Y Y. If A represents weght set then A s A A A. In ths process specfc analyss from relevant experts s needed to determne ths set. Experts mark sngle factor and multply the weght ndexes by sngle factor evaluaton matrx gettng the comprehensve evaluaton set whch s the specfc ndexes for poltcal rsks. Specfc processng s accordng to evaluaton ndexes through weghted average method. Then the recorded quanttatve ndexes of evaluaton factors need to be reset. In the research of ths part correspondng quanttatve relatons are shown n TABLE. TABLE : Quantzaton table of damage degree of poltcal rsk R Level Very large Large Medum Small Very small Compute sgn C C C C4 C Quantzed value 9 7 C s supposed to be specfc evaluaton value of damage brought by poltcal rsks then 0 0 0 0 0 0 c c b b b c b c b c b c c COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF TRUNK RISK In the above dscusson two factors rsk probablty and damage are analyzed n detal. In the analyss of trunk rsk of hgher level the relatonshp of two factors should be consdered frst [7]. Then the expected value ranges of rsk probabltes and damage of sx knds of rsks are summarzed as shown n TABLE 6.
BTAIJ 0() 04 Lu Le 689 TABLE 6 : Evaluaton results of trunk rsk Trunk rsk Branch and leaf rsk Expected values of probablty Expected values of damage Systematc rsk Unsystematc rsk Poltcal rsk r Economc rsk r Socal and cultural rsk r Technology rsk r4 Management rsk r Other rsks r6 Measurng the probablty and damage degree of trunk rsk s to evaluate the rsk level of trunk rsk on the bass of probablty and damage degree of branch rsk wth factors whch mpacts them consdered. Two methods can be appled. One s combned method whch consders f varous branch rsks consttutng trunk rsk appear at the same tme. Each possble combnaton s lsted and probablty and damage degree of trunk rsk measured by probablty theory. The other s fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton method. Sngle factor evaluaton matrx can be gotten from the evaluaton ndexes of branch rsk. CONCLUSION That s the studyng and research about the fnancng market n Chna s sports ndustry. It focuses on three aspects ncludng comprehensve fuzzy evaluaton model buldng of fnancng projects n sports ndustry and comprehensve fuzzy evaluaton of branch rsk probablty showng the scentfcty and ratonalty of model buldng. Ths research was also hoped to lay a theoretcal foundaton for further work. REFERENCES [] Zhang Dengbn; Problems and solutons of fnancng n Chna s sports ndustry Economc Research Gude (8) 7-7 (0). [] L Jacarang; Fnancng and Development n Sports Industry Sport () 4- (0). [] Zhou Xuelang; The research on fnancng channel of chna s sports ndustry marketzaton Market Modernzaton (0) -4 (0). [4] Yang Janrong; The fnancal envronment buldng of sports ndustry: Market and partcpants Academc Exploraton () 9-94 (0). [] Lu Chuan; The research on fnancng channel and the current stuaton of Chna s Sports Industry Sports Scence Research () -8 (0). [6] Zhou Jng; Research on problems and countermeasures of the nvestment and fnancng system constructon for Chna sports ndustry journal of Chna unversty of petroleum (Edton of Socal Scence) () -4 (0). [7] Zhu Janyong; Feasblty analyss of nvestment and fnancng n Chna s sports ndustry-a case of prvate captal nvestment Journal of Bejng Sport Unversty () 7-0 (00).