Analysts Weigh In On Persistent Memory...

Analysts Weigh In On Persistent Memory...

Your Experts Today Jeff Janukowicz, IDC Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates Jim Handy, Objective Analysis 2

Perspective on the Market and Persistent Memory Jeff Janukowicz Research Vice President IDC

Forecasting The best way to predict your future is to create it. - Abraham Lincoln 4

Our Digital Universe Zetabytes* 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Information Created WW 2005 = 0.1 ZB 2010 = 1.2 ZB 2015 = 9.3 ZB 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Information Created Source: IDC Digital Universe Study 2020 = 44 ZB Measured by the digital data we create, capture, and replicate each year Over the last many years, data has become richer However, in the advent of the Internet of Things, machine to machine communication, and intelligent systems, data is being captured in many more ways. Much of the data that is created is never stored for more than microseconds as data is created in the process of delivering content to devices that are requesting it for various reasons. *A Zettabyte = 1 million Petabytes 5

Storing our Digital Universe Zetabytes 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 WW Installed Bytes Used Bytes Information Created Source: IDC Digital Universe Study and Where in the World is Storage Study A storage device is rarely filled up to its capacity By 2020, we estimate a 50% utilization rate across all storage mediums. The resulting gap between the content we create and the content we store is called transient data This is where services are provided (e.g., OTT), real-time analytics and decision making occur, and where our digital world evolves along side of our physical world. Data is moving from the background into the foreground as a valued commodity IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Twitter: @IDC 6

Memory / Storage Hierarchy Registers Performance Cache Memory DRAM Persistent Memory NAND Flash SSDs Performance Optimized HDD Capacity Optimized HDD Cost Effective Tape / Optical 7

The New Paradigm DRAM DRAM Flash Perf Optimized A lot more Flash Perf Optimized Capacity Optimized Capacity Optimized Historical Today Near Future 8

The New Paradigm Fact is, Datacenters come in all different shapes and sizes with variable workloads but they all will have one thing in common hot and cold data In a real time world Need find a way to intersect Data at the Speed of Life 9

Challenge of Creating a new Paradigm 5,000 WW Enterprise SSD Unit Shipments by Interface 4,000 Units (Ku) 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 SAS sata Other PCIe Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Source: Worldwide Solid State Storage Quarterly Update: 3Q16 Summary Nov 2016 - Doc # US40809016 10

Closing Thoughts The best way to predict your future is to create it. - Abraham Lincoln To capitalize on the opportunity: Embrace the new paradigm Taylor the solution for the targeted applications Build an Ecosystem

Persistent Memory, IOPS, & Latency Jim Handy, Objective Analysis Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates

Agenda IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A 13

Agenda IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A 14

How Many IOPS Is Enough? Brief On-line survey of IT managers needs: IOPS Capacity Latency Primary applications System bottleneck Original data 2012. Update 2016 Report interprets the results in depth: 150 Pages, 147 Figures, 9 Tables Analyzed by application showing changes with time Survey continues at TinyURL.com/IOPSsurvey 15

Respondents Application Types Mail server and mail storage, 4% Archiving and backup, 6% Video Creation or Distribution, 6% Databases, 43% Scientific or Engineering, 9% OLTP, 22% Cloud storage or services, 10% Source: How Many IOPS Is Enough? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. 2016 16

How Many IOPS Do They Need? Percent of Responses 40% 30% 20% 10% 76% between 10K and 1M IOPS The 2016 data shows a 54% higher mean in IOPS required that the 2012 data 0% 10 100 1K 10K 100K 1M 10M IOPS Required Source: How Many IOPS Is Enough? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. 2016 17

IOPS by Form Factor HDD SATA/SAS NVMe/PCIe Memory Channel 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 IOPS Supported 18

Latency vs. IOPS Requirements 10 Latency (seconds) 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 SAN HDD SSD 0.00001 0.000001 DRAM 0.0000001 1E-08 Cache 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 IOPS Source: How Many IOPS Is Enough? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. 2016 19

Agenda IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A 20

2020 Emerging Memory Market >$2B 3D Xpoint (Optane at Intel and QuantX at Micron) or RRAM to provide intermediate layer between DRAM and NAND Flash Intel announced that its upcoming Optane nonvolatile memory will ship in the second quarter of the year as 16GB and 32GB M.2 expansion cards. Micron will also ship in Q2 Company s readying RRAM products, including some noise about carbon nano-tube products in 2017 2015 Emerging Non-Volatile Memory & Spin Logic Technologies and Manufacturing Report, Coughlin Associates

STT-MRAM Everspin IPO, Other start-ups in wings ES STT MRAM with 1 Gb capacities-- replace DRAM/SRAM? Global Foundries and others-- embedded MRAM (GF emram 22FDX) Low Power Requirements make MRAM a great option for battery powered IoT products and automobiles 22

Agenda IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A 23

NAND Flash Cycles Will Continue $50 $40 Annual NAND Revenues ($ Billions) $30 $20 $10 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: NAND Flash Update, 4Q16 Objective Analysis, 2016 24

Optimistic 3D XPoint Revenue Forecast $2.5 Annual 3D XPoint Revenues ($Billions) $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 2017 2018 2019 Source: A Close Look at the Micron/Intel 3D XPoint Memory Objective Analysis, 2015 25

Flash M&E Revenue Share Is Growing 2015 2021 2016 Digital Storage in Media and Entertainment Report, Coughlin Associates 26

Agenda IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A 27

Report Availability IOPS report available for immediate download online at: www.objective-analysis.com Or order all three through Coughlin Associates at: http://www.tomcoughlin.com/techpapers.htm 408-202-5098 Tom@TomCoughlin.com 28