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Transcription:

FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 601 California Street San Francisco, California 94108 415-392-5763 Tabulations From a Survey of California Likely Voters about the 2016 Presidential Election - prepared for the - Capitol Alert and the Sacramento Bee September 20, 2016 1

Introduction This volume presents the statistical data developed from a September 2016 Field-IGS Poll, conducted jointly by The Field Poll and UC Berkeley s Institute of Governmental Studies using YouGov s online panel. The results in this volume are based on the responses of 1,426 likely voters in California, although some of the questions are based on a random subsample of voters statewide. Data collection was completed September 7-13, 2016 in English and Spanish by YouGov, which administered the survey among California registered voters included as part of its online panel of over 1.5 million U.S. residents. YouGov panel members were invited to participate in the poll through an invitation email containing a link to the survey, and were selected using a proprietary sampling technology frame that establishes interlocking targets, so that the characteristics of the voters interviewed match the demographic, political and regional profile of the overall California registered voter population. To help ensure diversity among poll respondents, YouGov recruits its panelists using a variety of methods, including web-based advertising and email campaigns, partner-sponsored solicitations, and telephone-to-web recruitment or mail-to-web recruitment. Difficult-to-reach populations are supplemented through more specialized recruitment efforts, including telephone and mail surveys. The Field Poll and the Institute of Governmental Studies were jointly responsible for developing all questions included in the survey and its translation into Spanish. After survey administration, the YouGov data file was forwarded to The Field Poll for processing. The Field Poll then took the lead in developing and applying post-stratification weights to more precisely align the sample to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of the California registered voter population both overall and by region. The Field Poll was also responsible for determining which voters in the survey were most likely to vote in this year s election. 2

Guide to Reading the Tables The question or questions upon which the data are based is shown at the top of each table. Tables are percentaged vertically with the raw percentage base appearing at the top of each column. The data have been weighted to known parameters of the statewide registered voter population. All percentages and frequencies reported in each table are therefore weighted tabulations. In instances where percentages are calculated on small bases (e.g., when the base is fewer than 100 respondents) the reader is urged to interpret the data with caution, since results are subject to larger levels of sampling error. Throughout the tables an asterisk is used to denote a value of less than 1/2 of 1%. A hyphen indicates zero value. On some tables the percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions. s of subgroups used in the tabulations may add to less than the total number of respondents due to some respondents not reporting that characteristic. 3

Regional Subgroup Definitions Section Southern CA : Northern CA: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial and Kern counties all other 48 California counties Area Coastal Counties: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte Inland counties: all other 38 California counties Region Los Angeles: Los Angeles county Other South South Coast: Central Valley: SF Bay Area: Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Imperial and San Luis Obispo counties San Diego County and Orange counties Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo Other North: Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity, Tuolumne 4

Questions Asked (ASKED OF ALL LIKELY VOTERS) If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? HILLARY CLINTON-TIM KAINE, DEMOCRATIC PARTY; DONALD TRUMP-MIKE PENCE, REPUBLICAN PARTY; GARY JOHNSON-WILLIAM WELD, LIBERTARIAN PARTY; JILL STEIN-AJAMU BARAKA, GREEN PARTY. (ORDERING OF PARTY TICKETS RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) (ASKED OF A RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF 484 LIKELY VOTERS) What is your overall opinion of Hillary Clinton? VERY FAVORABLE; SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE; SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE; VERY UNFAVORABLE. What is your overall opinion of Donald Trump? VERY FAVORABLE; SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE; SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE; VERY UNFAVORABLE. (ASKED OF A RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF 600 REGISTERED VOTERS, INCLUDING 484 LIKELY VOTERS) Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE STRONGLY; APPROVE SOMEWHAT; DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT; DISAPPROVE STRONGLY. 5

Q3 (Banner 1) Likely voters Hillary Clinton - Tim Kaine, Democratic Donald Trump - Mike Pence, Republican Gary Johnson - William Weld, Libertarian Jill Stein - Ajamu Baraka, Green Undecided Southern CA Section Area Region Registration Likely voters Other Northern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely Norther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Vote choice if the election for president were held today 1426 833 593 969 457 353 240 240 238 300 55 670 421 335 1426-1443 832 611 1006 437 392 241 199 230 303 77 641 420 381 1443-100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 717 422 294 548 169 226 113 83 92 184 19 546 25 147 717-49.7% 50.8% 48.2% 54.4% 38.7% 57.6% 46.8% 42.0% 40.1% 60.5% 24.1% 85.1% 5.9% 38.4% 49.7% - 471 287 184 293 177 106 97 84 84 70 30 26 354 90 471-32.6% 34.5% 30.1% 29.1% 40.6% 27.1% 40.1% 42.2% 36.6% 22.9% 38.7% 4.1% 84.2% 23.7% 32.6% - 74 34 40 44 30 13 11 11 11 18 10 9 17 48 74-5.2% 4.1% 6.5% 4.4% 6.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.6% 5.0% 6.0% 13.1% 1.4% 4.1% 12.6% 5.2% - 87 44 43 64 22 30 10 4 16 14 13 36 1 50 87-6.0% 5.2% 7.1% 6.4% 5.1% 7.5% 4.0% 2.2% 7.0% 4.6% 16.9% 5.6% 0.3% 13.0% 6.0% - 94 45 50 57 38 18 11 16 26 18 6 24 23 47 94-6.5% 5.4% 8.1% 5.6% 8.7% 4.6% 4.7% 7.9% 11.3% 5.9% 7.2% 3.8% 5.5% 12.3% 6.5% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Not likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 27 6

Q3 (Banner 2) Likely voters Hillary Clinton - Tim Kaine, Democratic Donald Trump - Mike Pence, Republican Gary Johnson - William Weld, Libertarian Jill Stein - Ajamu Baraka, Green Undecided Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Vote choice if the election for president were held today 1426 695 731 876 355 73 77 45 172 201 179 493 381 760 370 295 293 1116 1443 722 721 937 297 73 84 52 168 236 171 463 405 785 372 285 306 1119 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 717 329 388 410 182 57 51 18 104 135 94 204 179 391 204 121 169 538 49.7% 45.5% 53.9% 43.7% 61.1% 77.4% 60.3% 35.1% 62.3% 57.0% 55.2% 44.0% 44.3% 49.8% 54.8% 42.5% 55.2% 48.1% 471 265 206 356 61 9 21 23 26 33 47 175 189 281 65 124 72 391 32.6% 36.7% 28.5% 38.0% 20.6% 13.0% 24.6% 44.6% 15.8% 14.0% 27.6% 37.7% 46.7% 35.9% 17.5% 43.4% 23.7% 35.0% 74 37 37 57 10-4 3 9 27 8 21 10 34 31 10 29 46 5.2% 5.1% 5.2% 6.1% 3.4% - 5.3% 5.9% 5.6% 11.4% 4.4% 4.5% 2.4% 4.3% 8.2% 3.5% 9.4% 4.1% 87 50 37 55 22 4 4 2 15 24 12 28 9 29 47 11 14 72 6.0% 6.9% 5.1% 5.9% 7.3% 4.9% 4.4% 4.5% 9.1% 10.0% 6.8% 6.0% 2.1% 3.7% 12.6% 3.8% 4.5% 6.4% 94 42 53 59 23 3 5 5 12 18 10 36 18 50 25 19 22 73 6.5% 5.8% 7.3% 6.3% 7.6% 4.7% 5.5% 10.0% 7.2% 7.6% 6.0% 7.8% 4.5% 6.4% 6.8% 6.7% 7.2% 6.5% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 28 7

Q3 (Banner 3) Likely voters Hillary Clinton - Tim Kaine, Democratic Donald Trump - Mike Pence, Republican Gary Johnson - William Weld, Libertarian Jill Stein - Ajamu Baraka, Green Undecided conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education Now and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Vote choice if the election for president were held today 1426 137 267 455 313 235 1002 424-134 251 207 211 144 303 227 590 388 221 1443 144 272 452 310 245 1015 428-135 233 197 208 158 325 261 458 399 326 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 717 10 42 222 247 191 492 224-63 112 96 129 63 181 107 185 227 198 49.7% 6.7% 15.5% 49.1% 79.7% 77.8% 48.5% 52.5% - 46.5% 48.1% 48.8% 61.8% 39.9% 55.7% 41.2% 40.4% 56.9% 60.6% 471 120 195 138 7 4 367 103-37 72 67 54 62 99 126 168 99 78 32.6% 83.1% 71.8% 30.5% 2.2% 1.5% 36.2% 24.1% - 27.2% 30.9% 33.8% 26.0% 39.1% 30.4% 48.5% 36.7% 24.8% 23.8% 74 8 14 31 10 10 38 36-11 15 9 7 9 15 6 26 31 12 5.2% 5.5% 5.3% 7.0% 3.4% 4.1% 3.7% 8.5% - 8.2% 6.5% 4.7% 3.4% 6.0% 4.7% 2.1% 5.6% 7.8% 3.7% 87 2 1 17 30 33 64 23-16 17 12 9 10 13 10 32 20 25 6.0% 1.1% 0.5% 3.7% 9.6% 13.5% 6.3% 5.4% - 12.1% 7.2% 6.1% 4.3% 6.5% 4.0% 3.9% 7.0% 5.0% 7.6% 94 5 19 44 16 8 54 41-8 17 13 9 13 17 11 47 22 14 6.5% 3.5% 6.9% 9.7% 5.1% 3.1% 5.3% 9.5% - 6.0% 7.4% 6.6% 4.5% 8.5% 5.1% 4.4% 10.3% 5.5% 4.3% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Post graduate Field Research Corporation Table 29 8

Q3 (Banner 4) Likely voters Hillary Clinton - Tim Kaine, Democratic Donald Trump - Mike Pence, Republican Gary Johnson - William Weld, Libertarian Jill Stein - Ajamu Baraka, Green Undecided Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Not Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) Yes No A B C Vote choice if the election for president were held today 1426 875 469 685 741 418 299 155 553 318 1108 459 484 483 1443 903 457 728 715 424 292 166 560 324 1119 462 488 493 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 717 430 254 389 327 139 169 88 319 127 590 228 240 248 49.7% 47.6% 55.6% 53.5% 45.8% 32.9% 57.9% 53.2% 56.9% 39.3% 52.7% 49.5% 49.2% 50.3% 471 342 98 197 274 225 94 35 116 165 306 156 169 146 32.6% 37.9% 21.5% 27.0% 38.3% 53.1% 32.3% 21.0% 20.8% 51.0% 27.3% 33.8% 34.5% 29.6% 74 38 32 48 27 21 5 14 34 6 68 24 19 32 5.2% 4.2% 6.9% 6.5% 3.7% 5.1% 1.7% 8.7% 6.0% 1.9% 6.1% 5.1% 3.9% 6.4% 87 38 39 48 38 9 4 15 59 4 83 26 31 29 6.0% 4.2% 8.6% 6.6% 5.4% 2.2% 1.3% 9.1% 10.5% 1.2% 7.4% 5.7% 6.4% 5.9% 94 55 34 46 48 29 20 13 33 21 73 27 29 38 6.5% 6.1% 7.4% 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 8.0% 5.8% 6.6% 6.5% 5.9% 5.9% 7.7% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Field Research Corporation Table 30 9

Q4b (Banner 1) Likely voters (Form B) Southern CA Section Area Region Registration Likely voters Other Northern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely Norther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Overall opinion Hillary Clinton 484 289 195 339 145 129 79 81 77 100 18 234 137 113 484-488 285 203 348 141 139 78 69 76 104 22 218 145 125 488-100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 132 77 55 100 32 46 17 15 17 33 5 111 2 20 132-27.1% 27.1% 27.2% 28.9% 22.8% 33.0% 21.8% 21.2% 22.5% 32.1% 20.5% 50.8% 1.4% 15.8% 27.1% - 96 61 36 74 22 30 17 14 9 26 * 67 4 26 96-19.7% 21.2% 17.6% 21.4% 15.6% 21.5% 21.2% 20.8% 12.1% 25.1% 1.2% 30.5% 2.8% 20.5% 19.7% - 59 35 24 47 12 24 6 6 8 13 3 21 5 32 59-12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 13.5% 8.2% 17.0% 7.4% 8.2% 9.9% 12.8% 12.4% 9.8% 3.6% 25.5% 12.0% - 201 113 88 126 75 40 39 34 42 31 15 19 134 48 201-41.1% 39.5% 43.5% 36.2% 53.4% 28.6% 49.6% 49.8% 55.5% 29.9% 65.8% 8.9% 92.2% 38.1% 41.1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Not likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 31 10

Q4b (Banner 2) Likely voters (Form B) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Overall opinion Hillary Clinton 484 236 248 295 122 22 33 12 64 66 61 172 121 272 120 91 95 380 488 240 248 314 103 24 35 13 57 80 56 158 136 280 115 92 94 385 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 132 56 77 76 36 10 8 2 14 27 19 37 35 77 32 24 32 96 27.1% 23.1% 31.0% 24.3% 35.2% 41.1% 24.5% 11.9% 24.3% 33.8% 34.3% 23.3% 25.9% 27.4% 27.4% 26.1% 34.1% 25.0% 96 46 50 56 21 10 9-18 23 5 29 23 53 25 18 18 77 19.7% 19.4% 20.1% 17.9% 20.3% 43.0% 26.0% - 30.7% 28.2% 8.1% 18.0% 16.9% 18.8% 22.1% 19.6% 19.6% 19.9% 59 28 30 34 11-10 4 10 8 11 23 7 26 23 9 8 50 12.0% 11.8% 12.2% 10.8% 11.0% - 28.4% 27.8% 17.4% 10.2% 18.9% 14.3% 5.3% 9.4% 19.8% 9.6% 9.0% 13.0% 201 110 91 147 34 4 7 8 16 22 22 70 71 124 35 41 35 162 41.1% 45.7% 36.7% 47.0% 33.5% 15.9% 21.1% 60.3% 27.6% 27.8% 38.6% 44.4% 52.0% 44.4% 30.7% 44.7% 37.3% 42.1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 32 11

Q4b (Banner 3) Likely voters (Form B) conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education Now and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Overall opinion Hillary Clinton 484 39 97 157 103 82 345 139-49 81 61 74 43 119 83 192 127 82 Post graduate 488 43 107 151 102 78 353 135-48 78 59 71 44 124 94 157 131 106 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 132 3 12 39 41 37 95 37-11 19 14 28 10 38 22 33 44 34 27.1% 7.1% 11.2% 25.7% 39.8% 47.7% 27.1% 27.4% - 23.5% 24.2% 23.5% 39.5% 23.7% 30.8% 23.5% 20.7% 33.4% 32.2% 96 2 7 29 32 27 63 33-9 18 14 18 7 18 15 24 32 25 19.7% 4.5% 6.4% 19.3% 31.0% 33.9% 17.9% 24.3% - 18.2% 23.0% 23.3% 25.4% 17.1% 14.3% 15.8% 15.4% 24.7% 23.4% 59-6 21 17 13 34 25-8 9 9 6 6 16 10 21 17 11 12.0% - 5.7% 13.9% 17.0% 16.4% 9.5% 18.4% - 15.8% 11.3% 14.9% 8.8% 13.2% 12.9% 10.3% 13.5% 13.0% 10.1% 201 38 82 62 12 2 160 40-20 32 23 19 20 52 47 79 38 36 41.1% 88.3% 76.7% 41.1% 12.2% 2.0% 45.5% 29.9% - 42.4% 41.5% 38.3% 26.3% 46.0% 42.1% 50.4% 50.4% 28.9% 34.3% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Field Research Corporation Table 33 12

Q4b (Banner 4) Likely voters (Form B) Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Not Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) Yes No A B C Overall opinion Hillary Clinton 484 296 165 238 246 143 107 46 187 104 380-484 - 488 305 162 249 239 152 103 47 185 101 387-488 - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% - 132 84 45 70 63 31 32 17 53 26 106-132 - 27.1% 27.5% 28.0% 28.0% 26.2% 20.4% 30.6% 36.5% 28.5% 25.8% 27.5% - 27.1% - 96 54 41 50 46 11 16 9 58 11 85-96 - 19.7% 17.7% 25.1% 20.2% 19.2% 7.4% 15.9% 19.5% 31.4% 10.8% 22.1% - 19.7% - 59 33 22 32 26 11 12 7 28 6 53-59 - 12.0% 10.9% 13.4% 13.0% 10.9% 7.3% 11.5% 15.5% 15.4% 5.9% 13.6% - 12.0% - 201 134 54 97 104 99 43 14 46 58 143-201 - 41.1% 44.0% 33.5% 38.8% 43.6% 65.0% 42.0% 28.6% 24.7% 57.5% 36.9% - 41.1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Field Research Corporation Table 34 13

Q5b (Banner 1) Likely voters (Form B) Southern CA Section Area Region Registration Likely voters Other Northern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely Norther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 289 195 339 145 129 79 81 77 100 18 234 137 113 484-488 285 203 348 141 139 78 69 76 104 22 218 145 125 488-100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 69 34 35 39 30 11 13 10 13 13 9 6 56 8 69-14.1% 11.9% 17.3% 11.1% 21.5% 8.3% 16.5% 14.1% 16.7% 12.7% 40.3% 2.5% 38.5% 6.2% 14.1% - 84 63 21 63 22 27 18 18 12 8 1 10 56 19 84-17.3% 22.1% 10.6% 18.0% 15.4% 19.7% 23.0% 25.8% 16.2% 7.7% 4.5% 4.4% 38.8% 14.8% 17.3% - 61 32 30 43 18 13 8 11 10 20-17 24 20 61-12.6% 11.0% 14.7% 12.4% 12.8% 9.2% 9.7% 16.4% 13.4% 18.8% - 7.7% 16.9% 15.9% 12.6% - 272 155 117 203 69 87 40 29 41 63 12 186 8 78 272-55.7% 54.4% 57.5% 58.3% 49.3% 62.7% 50.9% 41.8% 53.7% 60.8% 55.2% 85.4% 5.6% 62.2% 55.7% - 2 2 - * 1 * - 1 - - - - * 1 2-0.3% 0.5% - 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% - 1.8% - - - - 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% - Not likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 35 14

Q5b (Banner 2) Likely voters (Form B) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 236 248 295 122 22 33 12 64 66 61 172 121 272 120 91 95 380 488 240 248 314 103 24 35 13 57 80 56 158 136 280 115 92 94 385 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 69 31 38 54 13-1 2 5 8 10 21 25 45 10 14 10 56 14.1% 12.8% 15.4% 17.1% 12.5% - 2.8% 12.2% 9.6% 9.6% 17.1% 13.3% 18.5% 16.1% 8.9% 14.7% 10.5% 14.5% 84 46 39 65 10 3 3 3 1 13 7 28 35 56 9 19 20 63 17.3% 19.0% 15.6% 20.6% 9.9% 12.4% 9.8% 24.4% 2.3% 16.4% 12.1% 17.8% 25.6% 20.0% 8.1% 20.6% 21.1% 16.3% 61 32 29 38 9 3 8 3 4 16 6 25 10 41 10 10 17 43 12.6% 13.3% 11.9% 12.0% 9.2% 12.8% 23.2% 24.2% 7.0% 20.2% 11.3% 15.5% 7.4% 14.6% 8.8% 11.1% 18.6% 11.2% 272 131 141 158 69 18 22 5 45 43 33 85 66 136 85 49 45 223 55.7% 54.4% 57.0% 50.3% 67.0% 74.9% 64.2% 39.1% 79.0% 53.4% 59.5% 53.4% 48.4% 48.7% 74.3% 53.5% 48.2% 58.0% 2 1 * - 2 - - - 1 * - - - 2 - - 2-0.3% 0.5% 0.1% - 1.5% - - - 2.2% 0.4% - - - 0.5% - - 1.6% - Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 36 15

Q5b (Banner 3) Likely voters (Form B) conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education Now and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 39 97 157 103 82 345 139-49 81 61 74 43 119 83 192 127 82 Post graduate 488 43 107 151 102 78 353 135-48 78 59 71 44 124 94 157 131 106 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 69 17 38 13 1 1 58 11-10 10 11 8 5 9 23 28 13 6 14.1% 38.8% 35.2% 8.4% 0.8% 1.5% 16.5% 7.9% - 21.4% 12.9% 19.4% 10.9% 11.6% 7.0% 24.6% 17.6% 9.6% 5.4% 84 16 32 32 1 1 68 16-4 16 5 8 10 30 18 24 23 20 17.3% 37.2% 30.2% 20.8% 0.9% 1.2% 19.4% 11.8% - 8.6% 20.3% 9.3% 11.7% 23.7% 24.4% 18.7% 15.5% 17.5% 18.4% 61 8 17 29 5 1 32 30-5 6 7 5 9 24 7 20 16 18 12.6% 18.5% 15.7% 19.3% 5.3% 1.1% 8.9% 22.0% - 10.0% 8.0% 11.8% 7.2% 21.1% 19.0% 7.1% 12.7% 12.5% 17.2% 272 2 20 78 94 75 193 79-28 46 35 50 19 62 45 85 79 63 55.7% 5.5% 18.8% 51.3% 91.8% 96.3% 54.7% 58.4% - 57.5% 58.8% 59.0% 70.3% 43.7% 49.6% 48.3% 54.0% 60.4% 59.0% 2 - - * 1-2 - - 1 - * - - - 1 * - - 0.3% - - 0.2% 1.2% - 0.4% - - 2.6% - 0.5% - - - 1.3% 0.2% - - Field Research Corporation Table 37 16

Q5b (Banner 4) Likely voters (Form B) Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Not Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) Yes No A B C Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 296 165 238 246 143 107 46 187 104 380-484 - 488 305 162 249 239 152 103 47 185 101 387-488 - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% - 69 48 21 33 36 37 18 4 9 20 49-69 - 14.1% 15.7% 12.8% 13.4% 15.0% 24.5% 17.7% 9.0% 5.1% 20.0% 12.6% - 14.1% - 84 63 15 42 42 40 22 7 15 32 52-84 - 17.3% 20.8% 9.1% 16.8% 17.7% 26.5% 21.2% 14.8% 8.4% 32.0% 13.4% - 17.3% - 61 43 17 37 25 28 15 2 16 23 38-61 - 12.6% 14.2% 10.3% 14.7% 10.3% 18.6% 14.7% 5.2% 8.4% 23.1% 9.8% - 12.6% - 272 150 108 136 136 46 48 34 143 25 247-272 - 55.7% 49.3% 66.7% 54.5% 57.0% 30.5% 46.5% 71.0% 77.3% 24.9% 63.8% - 55.7% - 2-2 2 - - - - 2-2 - 2-0.3% - 1.0% 0.6% - - - - 0.8% - 0.4% - 0.3% - Field Research Corporation Table 38 17

Q5b (Banner 1) Likely voters (Form B) Southern CA Section Area Region Registration Likely voters Other Northern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely Norther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 289 195 339 145 129 79 81 77 100 18 234 137 113 484-488 285 203 348 141 139 78 69 76 104 22 218 145 125 488-100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 69 34 35 39 30 11 13 10 13 13 9 6 56 8 69-14.1% 11.9% 17.3% 11.1% 21.5% 8.3% 16.5% 14.1% 16.7% 12.7% 40.3% 2.5% 38.5% 6.2% 14.1% - 84 63 21 63 22 27 18 18 12 8 1 10 56 19 84-17.3% 22.1% 10.6% 18.0% 15.4% 19.7% 23.0% 25.8% 16.2% 7.7% 4.5% 4.4% 38.8% 14.8% 17.3% - 61 32 30 43 18 13 8 11 10 20-17 24 20 61-12.6% 11.0% 14.7% 12.4% 12.8% 9.2% 9.7% 16.4% 13.4% 18.8% - 7.7% 16.9% 15.9% 12.6% - 272 155 117 203 69 87 40 29 41 63 12 186 8 78 272-55.7% 54.4% 57.5% 58.3% 49.3% 62.7% 50.9% 41.8% 53.7% 60.8% 55.2% 85.4% 5.6% 62.2% 55.7% - 2 2 - * 1 * - 1 - - - - * 1 2-0.3% 0.5% - 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% - 1.8% - - - - 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% - Not likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 35 18

Q5b (Banner 2) Likely voters (Form B) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 236 248 295 122 22 33 12 64 66 61 172 121 272 120 91 95 380 488 240 248 314 103 24 35 13 57 80 56 158 136 280 115 92 94 385 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 69 31 38 54 13-1 2 5 8 10 21 25 45 10 14 10 56 14.1% 12.8% 15.4% 17.1% 12.5% - 2.8% 12.2% 9.6% 9.6% 17.1% 13.3% 18.5% 16.1% 8.9% 14.7% 10.5% 14.5% 84 46 39 65 10 3 3 3 1 13 7 28 35 56 9 19 20 63 17.3% 19.0% 15.6% 20.6% 9.9% 12.4% 9.8% 24.4% 2.3% 16.4% 12.1% 17.8% 25.6% 20.0% 8.1% 20.6% 21.1% 16.3% 61 32 29 38 9 3 8 3 4 16 6 25 10 41 10 10 17 43 12.6% 13.3% 11.9% 12.0% 9.2% 12.8% 23.2% 24.2% 7.0% 20.2% 11.3% 15.5% 7.4% 14.6% 8.8% 11.1% 18.6% 11.2% 272 131 141 158 69 18 22 5 45 43 33 85 66 136 85 49 45 223 55.7% 54.4% 57.0% 50.3% 67.0% 74.9% 64.2% 39.1% 79.0% 53.4% 59.5% 53.4% 48.4% 48.7% 74.3% 53.5% 48.2% 58.0% 2 1 * - 2 - - - 1 * - - - 2 - - 2-0.3% 0.5% 0.1% - 1.5% - - - 2.2% 0.4% - - - 0.5% - - 1.6% - Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 36 19

Q5b (Banner 3) Likely voters (Form B) conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education Now and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 39 97 157 103 82 345 139-49 81 61 74 43 119 83 192 127 82 Post graduate 488 43 107 151 102 78 353 135-48 78 59 71 44 124 94 157 131 106 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 69 17 38 13 1 1 58 11-10 10 11 8 5 9 23 28 13 6 14.1% 38.8% 35.2% 8.4% 0.8% 1.5% 16.5% 7.9% - 21.4% 12.9% 19.4% 10.9% 11.6% 7.0% 24.6% 17.6% 9.6% 5.4% 84 16 32 32 1 1 68 16-4 16 5 8 10 30 18 24 23 20 17.3% 37.2% 30.2% 20.8% 0.9% 1.2% 19.4% 11.8% - 8.6% 20.3% 9.3% 11.7% 23.7% 24.4% 18.7% 15.5% 17.5% 18.4% 61 8 17 29 5 1 32 30-5 6 7 5 9 24 7 20 16 18 12.6% 18.5% 15.7% 19.3% 5.3% 1.1% 8.9% 22.0% - 10.0% 8.0% 11.8% 7.2% 21.1% 19.0% 7.1% 12.7% 12.5% 17.2% 272 2 20 78 94 75 193 79-28 46 35 50 19 62 45 85 79 63 55.7% 5.5% 18.8% 51.3% 91.8% 96.3% 54.7% 58.4% - 57.5% 58.8% 59.0% 70.3% 43.7% 49.6% 48.3% 54.0% 60.4% 59.0% 2 - - * 1-2 - - 1 - * - - - 1 * - - 0.3% - - 0.2% 1.2% - 0.4% - - 2.6% - 0.5% - - - 1.3% 0.2% - - Field Research Corporation Table 37 20

Q5b (Banner 4) Likely voters (Form B) Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Not Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) Yes No A B C Overall opinion Donald Trump 484 296 165 238 246 143 107 46 187 104 380-484 - 488 305 162 249 239 152 103 47 185 101 387-488 - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% - 69 48 21 33 36 37 18 4 9 20 49-69 - 14.1% 15.7% 12.8% 13.4% 15.0% 24.5% 17.7% 9.0% 5.1% 20.0% 12.6% - 14.1% - 84 63 15 42 42 40 22 7 15 32 52-84 - 17.3% 20.8% 9.1% 16.8% 17.7% 26.5% 21.2% 14.8% 8.4% 32.0% 13.4% - 17.3% - 61 43 17 37 25 28 15 2 16 23 38-61 - 12.6% 14.2% 10.3% 14.7% 10.3% 18.6% 14.7% 5.2% 8.4% 23.1% 9.8% - 12.6% - 272 150 108 136 136 46 48 34 143 25 247-272 - 55.7% 49.3% 66.7% 54.5% 57.0% 30.5% 46.5% 71.0% 77.3% 24.9% 63.8% - 55.7% - 2-2 2 - - - - 2-2 - 2-0.3% - 1.0% 0.6% - - - - 0.8% - 0.4% - 0.3% - Field Research Corporation Table 38 21

Q20a (Banner 1) Registered Voters (Form A) Approve strongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove strongly Southern CA Section Area Region Registration Likely voters Other Northern Coastal Inland L.A. South Other Central SF Bay NPP/ Likely Norther Democrat Republican CA counties counties County Coast South Valley Area Other voter CA Approve or disapprove Barack Obama is handling his job as President 600 343 257 398 202 146 97 100 114 121 22 281 169 150 459 141 600 347 253 418 182 164 98 85 100 124 29 265 164 171 462 138 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 177 101 76 138 38 58 25 18 23 44 8 135 7 35 149 28 29.5% 29.1% 30.0% 33.1% 21.1% 35.5% 25.6% 20.9% 23.3% 36.0% 27.6% 51.1% 4.2% 20.4% 32.2% 20.4% 169 89 79 110 59 33 30 26 30 39 10 96 18 55 109 60 28.1% 25.7% 31.4% 26.2% 32.5% 20.1% 30.5% 31.0% 30.4% 31.7% 33.7% 36.1% 11.2% 32.0% 23.6% 43.1% 73 47 27 53 21 24 9 13 11 16-23 23 27 46 27 12.2% 13.4% 10.7% 12.6% 11.4% 14.5% 9.5% 15.9% 11.1% 12.8% - 8.8% 14.2% 15.7% 10.0% 19.9% 179 109 70 117 63 49 34 26 35 24 11 10 115 55 156 23 29.9% 31.6% 27.6% 27.9% 34.5% 29.9% 34.5% 31.3% 35.2% 19.6% 35.8% 3.8% 69.9% 31.9% 33.9% 16.7% 2 1 1 1 1 - - 1 - - 1 1 1-2 - 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% - - 0.8% - - 3.0% 0.3% 0.5% - 0.3% - Not likely voter Field Research Corporation Table 115 22

Q20a (Banner 2) Registered Voters (Form A) Approve strongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove strongly Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino African- American Asian/ Pac Isle Other 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Married/ domestic partner Single/ Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH Approve or disapprove Barack Obama is handling his job as President 600 271 329 340 169 34 40 17 105 90 77 190 138 297 181 122 141 453 600 282 318 360 137 35 45 23 93 103 78 178 148 312 171 117 152 441 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 177 71 106 103 39 19 11 5 30 27 24 47 50 94 51 32 45 130 29.5% 25.0% 33.5% 28.5% 28.8% 55.1% 23.3% 21.8% 32.3% 25.8% 30.4% 26.3% 33.6% 30.2% 29.9% 27.1% 29.2% 29.6% 169 78 90 84 45 12 23 5 38 45 23 36 26 80 67 22 54 113 28.1% 27.7% 28.4% 23.3% 32.6% 34.3% 51.3% 22.0% 41.2% 44.1% 29.6% 20.2% 17.4% 25.6% 39.0% 18.8% 35.2% 25.7% 73 32 42 38 27-5 3 14 16 10 26 8 38 23 13 24 47 12.2% 11.3% 13.1% 10.7% 19.7% - 10.8% 14.1% 15.0% 15.5% 13.0% 14.3% 5.3% 12.2% 13.3% 10.8% 15.6% 10.6% 179 102 78 134 26 4 7 10 11 15 20 69 65 100 30 50 29 149 29.9% 36.0% 24.5% 37.1% 18.9% 10.6% 14.5% 42.1% 11.5% 14.6% 26.0% 38.6% 43.8% 32.1% 17.4% 42.5% 19.3% 33.9% 2-2 2 - - - - - - 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 0.3% - 0.5% 0.4% - - - - - - 0.9% 0.5% - - 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 116 23

Q20a (Banner 3) Registered Voters (Form A) Approve strongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove strongly conservative Conservative Political ideology Follow gov/public affairs Household Income Education Now and $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 H.S. Some Most of Some of then/ Under Moderate Liberal - - - - $100,000+ graduate college/ liberal the time the time hardly $20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 or less 2-year at all College graduate Approve or disapprove Barack Obama is handling his job as President 600 59 108 195 129 87 339 166 88 60 116 99 87 62 104 105 254 162 79 600 60 107 203 122 84 344 162 84 56 104 93 90 66 124 129 189 161 122 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 177 3 6 56 59 48 113 45 15 20 26 23 25 22 52 34 53 50 41 29.5% 4.8% 5.7% 27.8% 48.5% 56.9% 32.9% 27.7% 18.4% 35.6% 25.1% 24.4% 28.0% 32.8% 42.2% 26.1% 28.0% 30.8% 33.4% 169 4 18 67 47 25 67 59 40 15 35 28 28 18 23 30 52 58 29 28.1% 6.4% 16.6% 33.1% 38.9% 29.7% 19.6% 36.7% 47.1% 26.7% 33.8% 29.6% 30.8% 27.5% 18.7% 23.1% 27.6% 36.1% 23.6% 73 7 11 30 13 9 28 22 23 9 14 16 9 7 14 19 19 17 19 12.2% 12.1% 10.0% 14.7% 10.9% 10.5% 8.2% 13.8% 26.8% 16.9% 13.7% 17.2% 10.3% 10.9% 11.3% 14.7% 10.0% 10.6% 15.3% 179 45 72 49 2 2 134 35 6 12 28 27 27 19 34 45 65 35 34 29.9% 75.2% 67.6% 24.2% 1.7% 2.9% 38.9% 21.8% 7.6% 20.8% 26.5% 28.8% 30.1% 28.8% 27.8% 35.4% 34.3% 22.1% 27.7% 2 1-1 - - 2 - - - 1-1 - - 1-1 - 0.3% 1.4% - 0.3% - - 0.5% - - - 0.8% - 0.8% - - 0.7% - 0.4% - Post graduate Field Research Corporation Table 117 24

Q20a (Banner 4) Registered Voters (Form A) Approve strongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove strongly Tenure Employment status Religion Born Again Form Not Home- Roman Other Agnostic/ Renter Employed employed Protestant owner Catholic religion nothing (all other) Yes No A B C Approve or disapprove Barack Obama is handling his job as President 600 340 220 288 312 166 129 78 227 150 450 600 - - 600 353 205 300 300 165 134 78 223 156 444 600 - - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - - 177 97 72 98 79 38 43 15 81 39 138 177 - - 29.5% 27.6% 35.0% 32.6% 26.4% 22.8% 32.0% 19.8% 36.3% 25.1% 31.0% 29.5% - - 169 87 66 95 74 30 42 27 70 37 132 169 - - 28.1% 24.6% 32.0% 31.7% 24.5% 17.9% 31.4% 34.6% 31.4% 23.5% 29.7% 28.1% - - 73 43 25 34 39 20 18 14 21 16 58 73 - - 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 11.4% 13.1% 11.9% 13.8% 18.0% 9.6% 10.0% 13.0% 12.2% - - 179 125 42 73 107 77 31 22 51 64 116 179 - - 29.9% 35.4% 20.5% 24.2% 35.7% 46.4% 22.9% 27.6% 22.7% 40.8% 26.1% 29.9% - - 2 1 1 1 1 2 - - - 1 1 2 - - 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% - - - 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% - - Field Research Corporation Table 118 25