Operational Overview Interesting Day Overview: February 213
Interesting Day Overview High PCLP SMPB ( ) Bacton ASEP Scaleback w/c Dec 31st Jan 7th Jan 14th Jan 21st Jan 28th Feb 4th Exit Constraint Exit Constraint Bacton ASEP Scaleback 2
Nomination Imbalance & NG Trades (mcm) 3 14 th January: High PCLP 6 43 5 4 42 15 th Jan 16 th Jan 41 4 3 39 2 1 38 37 36 35-1 34 33-2 -3 32 31-4 3 5: 3: 1: 23: 21: 19: 17: 15: 13: 11: 9: Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Total Shipper Imbalance Linepack (mcm)
355 35 345 34 Linepack (mcm) 335 33 325 32 315 5: 4 Supply & Demand Hourly Variation from 1/24 Rate 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 3: 1: 23: 21: 19: 17: 15: 13: 11: 9: HVOL (mcm) Interconnector Exports ldzofftake ntsindustrial ntspowerstation Storage injection Interconnector Imports Storage Withdrawal Terminal supplies Actual Linepack
Week commencing 14 th January: Linepack Swing Supply & Demand Profile impact on Actual Linepack 37 14/1/213 15/1/213 16/1/213 17/1/213 18/1/213 19/1/213 2/1/213 6 365 5 36 4 355 3 Linepack (mcm) 35 345 34 335 33 2 1-1 -2 325-3 32-4 315-5 31-6 1: 19: 13: 1: 19: 13: 1: 19: 13: 1: 19: 13: 1: 19: 13: 1: 19: 13: 1: 19: 13: Terminal Supplies Storage Withdrawal Interconnector Imports Interconnector Export LDZ Offtake Powerstation Storage Injection Industrial Actual National Linepack 5 Variation from 1/24th rate (mcm)
21/2 vs 211/12: Linepack Variation Comparison of within day max-min range of NTS linepack (mcm) 35 35 3 3 In day range of linepack (mcm) 25 2 15 1 25 2 15 1 5 5 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Range of linepack swing 21/2 Rolling 3 day average swing 21/2 Range of linepack swing 211/12 Rolling 3 day average swing 211/12 6
Nomination Imbalance & NG Trades (mcm) 7 14 th 15 th 16 th January 6 5 4 14 th Jan 15 th Jan 16 th Jan 43 42 41 4 3 39 2 1 38 37 36 35-1 34 33-2 -3 32 31-4 3 3: 21: 15: 9: 3: 21: 15: 9: 3: 21: 15: 9: Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Total Shipper Imbalance Linepack (mcm)
16 th January: DN & Power Station Diurnal Take 25 HVOL Profiles - Supply and Demand 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 8 HVOL mcm 9: 11: 13: 15: 17: 19: 21: 23: 1: 3: 5: Interconnector Export Industrial LDZ Offtake Power Station Storage Injection Sub Terminal Interconnector Import Storage Withdrawal
LDZ & CCGT Offtake Rate (mcm) 16 th January: LDZ & CCGT Demand Previous 7 days 38 4 37 35 3 36 25 35 2 34 15 1 33 5 32 9 Linepack (mcm) 9: 11: 13: 15: 17: 19: 21: 23: 1: 3: 5: Actual LP LDZ 16113 LDZ 7-day Average CCGT 16113 CCGT 7-day Average
15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 16 th January: 1p/therm Prices and NG Actions 3 2 1 Actions (mcm) 1 Prices (p/therm) 9: 11: 13: 15: 17: 19: 21: 23: 1: 3: 5: Action Taken SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell
Prices (p/therm) 16 th January: Market Response 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 11 Flow Rate (mcm/d) 9: 11: 13: 15: 17: 19: 21: 23: 1: 3: 5: Interconnector Storage LNG SMP Buy
4 3 2 NG Trades (mcm) 1-1 -2-3 -4 12 16 th January: End of day position 43 42 41 4 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 5: 3: 1: 23: 21: 19: 17: 15: 13: 11: 9: Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Linepack (mcm)
Bacton ASEP Scalebacks 18 th & 21 st January 213
4 3 2 NG Trades (mcm) 1-1 -2-3 -4 14 16 th 17 th January 43 16 th Jan 17 th Jan 42 41 4 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Linepack (mcm)
18 th January: Start of Day Context Linepack (mcm) 45 44 43 42 41 4 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 Actual LP PCLP National Target LinePack Opening LinePack DFN Demand 15
18 th January: NG Actions Bacton ASEP Interruptible capacity scaled back. Release of additional firm entry capacity at Bacton withheld. 16
18 th January: Outturn 45 4 44 43 3 42 41 2 Actions (mcm) 4 39 38 37 36 35 1-1 34 33-2 32 31-3 3-4 9: 11: 13: 15: 17: 19: 21: 23: 1: 3: 5: NG Sell NG Buy Actual LP PCLP National Target LinePack Opening LinePack DFN Demand 17 Linepack (mcm)
NG Trades (mcm) 18 th 19 th 2 th January 43 42 41 4 39 38 18 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 18 th Jan 19 th Jan 2 th Jan 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Linepack (mcm)
21 st January: Events Norwegian Supply loss at Langeled (approx 25mcm EoD) The forecast increase in flows at IoG to cover this supply loss combined with an already heavy system and high Bacton flows cause a concern over a potential constraint at Bacton. Firm capacity release restricted at Bacton ASEP & Interruptible capacity scaled back 11: Interruptible capacity restored & firm capacity released 19
43 42 41 4 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 21 st January: Outturn 4 3 2 NG Trades (mcm) 1-1 -2-3 -4 9: 11: 13: 15: 17: 19: 21: 23: 1: 3: 5: NG Sell NG Buy National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Actual Linepack DFN Demand 2 Linepack (mcm)
Exit Constraint 23 rd & 25 th January 213
NG Trades (mcm) 21 st 22 nd 23 rd January 43 42 41 4 39 38 22 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 21 st Jan 22 nd Jan 23 rd Jan 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP Linepack (mcm)
23 rd January: SW LDZ and Power Station demand Higher demand in SW for for LDZ and Power Stations on the 23 rd January 4 18 3.5 Power Station Demand (mcm) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 17 LDZ Demand (mcm).5 19/1/213 2/1/213 21/1/213 22/1/213 23/1/213 Langage PS Marchwood PS Seabank PS SW LDZ Actual (D+1) 16 19/1/213 2/1/213 21/1/213 22/1/213 23/1/213 SW LDZ Actual (D+1) 16.96 17.21 17.19 17.38 17.53 Langage PS 1.68 1.38 1.86 2.7 2.48 Seabank PS.7 2.3.5 3.47 Marchwood PS.1.4 1.85 3.7 3.25 23
23 rd January: NG Actions Reconfigure the NTS Flow swap agreed Short Term NTS Flexibility Restriction issued in SW and SE Off-Peak Exit Capacity scalebacks initiated Locational offers and Exit Capacity surrender offers requested 24
25 th January: NG Actions Short Term NTS Flexibility Restriction issued in SW and SE No further actions required. 25
Lessons Learnt First time we have undertaken Exit Actions No Capacity Surrender offers received Some process learning with our control room Any feedback? Email: Jenny.Phillips@nationalgrid.com Phone: 1926 653977 26