s Evolution Evgeni Karakanovsky Director Business Development and s MobilTel EAD UMTS Forum member Many countries decided on IMT-2000 Today s s Market Status June 2002 worldwide Voice > 1 billion users SMS > 30 billion SMS/month Data > 50 million i-mode, WAP, GPRS subscriptions Seite 1
Revenue Trends Source: Durlacher report on mobile commerce Central and Eastern European Market data Total users (analogue and digital standards) Source End 2002 End 2003 End 2004 End 2005 End 2006 EMC 64Mn 79Mn 92Mn 103Mn 113Mn Siemens 74Mn 99Mn 125Mn 148Mn 169Mn Seite 2
Most popular Data Applications in early Data Markets Percentage use of data services Japan I-mode (NTT DoCoMo) access breakdown, September 2000 E-Mail, SMS 36 25 11 11 Information Transaction 1 29 12 Other (GPRS...) 95 12 Games 6 N/A 3 1 N/A 0 4,3 N/A 3 GSM Countries SMS, GPRS, HSCSD N/A 20 Ring tone/screen download Directories Korea n-top (SK Telecom) access breakdown, August 2000 N/A ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003 Changing Lifestyles & End-user Habits 1990 Find out a nice movie and buy a ticket 2000 2005 Paper guide & telephone Online guide & online ticket reservation Real-time guide with nearest cinema & mobile ticketing Phone, postcards & pictures E-mails, attachments, SMS, videos etc. Video-telephony, Photo messaging via mobile Board games Gameboy, Playstation etc. (Interactive) gaming Sending a hello from vacation Gaming ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003 Seite 3
s Value Chain The old voice centric mobile industry: Connectivity Provisioning & CRM user interface The new mobile data industry: Applications Network Aggregation and Sales creation management Application Application Platform Development Operation Gateway s Connectivity Systems & business integration Provisioning & CRM Source: Siemens ICM N M P (2001) Source: EU Commission Report 6/2002 Seite 4
UMTS extends the business chain for 3rd Party s Commercial Commercial ITU/3GPP IMT-2000 IETF/ISO Internet UMTS Terminal Radio network Core network Network applications Portals ISP s providers Business Chain ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003 UMTS Categories Intranets Internet Internet s PSTN UMTS s Intranet Access Internet Access Business Laptop Business + Consumer Laptop PDA Customized Infotainment Consumer Multimedia Messaging Location Based Business + Consumer Business + Consumer Voice Phone Phone SmartPhone ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003 Seite 5 SmartPhone PDA
3G Revenue Growth till 2010 $350,000 Worldwide Revenues - All s Revenues ($M) $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Simple Voice Rich Voice Location-Based s Business MMS Internet Access Consumer MMS Intranet/Extranet Access Customised Infotainment $50,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Telecompetition Inc., February 2001 Internet Access: 3 % Operator Revenues (2010) Billing for Airtime ISP Provider Portal Access Connectivity ISP Business Consumer 3G Operator Internet Applications: Messaging (E-Mails, SMS, MMS) Download video, music, streaming VoIP, Video over IP m-banking m-commerce (m-purchasing), trading www travel www Infoservices Seite 6
Intranet/Extranet Access: 15 % Operator Revenues (2010) Billing for Airtime Provider Access IP network ISP Firewall / Security Connectivity, Roaming Corporate Portal Corporate ISP Office, Business 3G Operator Enterprise Enterprise Applications: Messaging (E-Mails), Travel assistance (www) Sales, Technical s Teleworking, Access to Corporate Database Video Telephony, Conferencing Fleet Management, Warehouse Customized Infotainment: 28 % Operator Revenues (2010) Billing for Profile Affinity Partner Provider ISP Portal Revenue Sharing Portal Business Consumer 3G Operator 3 rd Parties Applications: Information (photo, video, music download) Gaming www Travel m-shopping, banking, e-wallet, micro-payment Education (Schools, Universities) voice portal messaging, Chatting (SMS, MMS) video portal ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24 th January 2003 Seite 7
Multimedia Messaging: 15 % Operator Revenues (2010) Billing for MMS Download Customer Profile MMS Server Billing for Messaging Connectivity Roaming 3G Operator Applications = Extension of SMS: MMS: Image, Video, Unified Messaging postcard, video/audio clip (3rd Party) MS Office documents Machine-to-Machine Music chatting Photo messaging Video messaging ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003 Location based s: 3 % Operator Revenues Fees Profile Location Portal Revenue Sharing 3G Operator Applications: Navigation (person, car) Localised Info (yellow pages) Location based m-commerce Telematics Trading (vehicle, goods, person) ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003 Seite 8 Location Context 3rd Parties
Rich Voice: 34 % Operator Revenues Billing Airtime Profile Voice/Video over IP Circuit switched voice/video Roaming Charge Connectivity Connectivity Roaming 3G Operator Applications: Telephony/Conferencing Videotelephony, Conferencing, Presence Telemedicine Teleworking (building industry etc.) Multimedia communication (IMS) Transmission Times /Fixed Networks Transfer Time Data Volume E-mail 5 kbyte SMS with photogr. 5 kbyte (JPEG 2000) Web page 20 kbyte Document 100 kbyte 3 min Audio CD 2 Mbyte MP3 10s Videoclip 600 kbyte MPEG4 2nd Generation GSM - GPRS Fixed PSTN / ISDN 3rd Generation UMTS 9,6 kbps 50 kbps < 64 kbps 128 kbps 384 kbps 2 Mbps 8 s 1,7 s 1,6 s 1,2 s 0,5 s <0,5s 8 s 1,7 s 1,6 s 1,2 s 0,5 s <0,5s 20 s 4,5 s 4 s 2,4 s 0,8 s <0,5s 2 min 35 s 25 s 12 s 4 s <1s 40 min 9 min 6,5 min 3 min --- 1) --- 1) 10 min 2,5 min 1,5 min 45 s 15 s 2) acceptance 1) Optimal CD Quality Streaming = 128 kbps 2) Videostreaming Seite 9
How will s Differ in the Regions of the World? i Requirements vary in the regions regarding services and applications i Wireless access to the Internet may be the first driver for 3G in many countries in order to get faster penetration public WLAN access will be complementary i Specific s will come from 2G evolution: MMS, Rich Voice, LBS, Infotainment 3G leads to new Business Models Information and Voice CONTENT CONNECTIVITY (Internet) MOBILITY Internet Access Intranet/ Extranet Access Customised infotainment Multimedia Messaging (MMS) Locationbased s Rich Voice and Simple Voice ISP Portal Specialised s Seite 10
Multimedia Messaging Revenues by Region in 2005 and 2010 Revenues ($bio) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 North America Asia Pacific Europe Rest of World Consumer Business Source: UMTS Forum The UMTS Forum Estimates show that Wireless Access accelerates Internet Penetration compared to wireline access (for business, for schools, private) UMTS s will dominate in the global market place Economy of scale Global Industry Support for Evolution from 2G to 3G Seite 11
Thank you for your Attention! UMTS Forum Russell Square House 10-12 Russell Square London WC1B 5EE United Kingdom Website: www.umts-forum.org Seite 12