Looking Ahead A Context for the Next Twenty Year Needs Assessment July 2013
A Larger Context for Twenty Year Needs Growing transit demand and complexity of travel paths and times Growing economy changing type, location of jobs A new generation that embraces transit but expects a 21 st Century system Strategic Investments beyond the Core Program needed to sustain ridership growth and regional economy Expanding Workday Makes Its Mark On Transit 1
Travel Demand is Changing Daily transit ridership up 58% since 1992 Subway and commuter up, bus flattening Peak period transit travel to the CBD is flattening Expansion of non-peak (mid-day, nights, weekends) work travel More trips within Outer Boroughs Growing non-work trips Auto use trending down Emerging residential (Bushwick, Williamsburg) and business districts (LI City, White Plains, Downtown Brooklyn) Changes driven by emerging 24/7/365 economy 2
Significant MTA Ridership Growth Over 20 Years Average Weekday Paid Rides Millions 9 8 7 MTA Other NYCT 7.71m 0.67 8.52m 0.97 6 5.39m 5 0.53 4 3 2 4.86 7.04 7.58 1 0 1992 2002 2012 Source: MTA Annual Reports; excludes MTA B&T Crossings 3
Peak Hour Transit Use to CBD is Flattening Subway Arrivals LIRR & MNR Arrivals Thousands 2,500 2,000 Thousands 250 200 214 1,952 189 1,500 150 1,499 150 153 1,000 100 500 941 892 50 78 66 465 350 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 24 Hours 6 10 AM 8 9 AM 24 Hr 6 10AM 8 9 AM Source: NYMTC Hub Bound data 4
Commutation Ticket Sales Trending Down, While Non-Commutation Tickets Sales Growing MNR LIRR 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% %Comm 20% %Comm 10% %NonComm 10% %NonComm 0% 0% Source: MNR and LIRR 2012 Reports 5
Potential Growth in Work Trips to Manhattan 2010 and 2035 Increment, All Modes, by Residence of Workers NYC Residents Suburban Residents Thousands 1,200 1,000 2035 2010 178 Thousands 350 300 2035 2010 59 250 800 133 200 600 400 892 150 16 28 248 635 100 200 50 130 107 9 Manhattan Outer Boro 27 Long Island Mid Hudson Connecticut New Jersey Source: 2010 2035 MTA forecasts 6
Destinations of Outer Borough Workers All Modes Thousands 1,400 1,200 Manhattan Within Boro Other Outer Boro 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1990 2000 2006 8 Source: Census JTW Data, selected years, all modes 7
Annual Crossings for MTA Bridges & Tunnels Trending Down Since 2007 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 Source: MTA B&T data 8 2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Millions 2012 Recessions: 1990 91, 2001, 2008 09
Nationwide Auto Usage is Dropping 9
Key Factors Affecting Regional Travel Changes Population continues to grow and change Impact of Boomers and Millennials Economy in transition: 9 to 5 becoming 24/7/365 Dominance of tech, education, health care sectors Growth of tourism and hospitality Fewer traditional 9 to 5 jobs in FIRE, management, administrative support. Emergence of non-traditional work patterns No longer limited to peak hours and Manhattan CBD Increase in part-time, self-employment, telecommuting-work Emergence of new regional business hubs Suburban employment growth needing more labor Is a New Normal being established? 10
Millions Continued Population Growth in the Region 30 New Jersey Connecticut Mid Hudson Long Island Other NYC Manhattan NYC MTA Region 25 20 8.09 15 10 5.86 6.08 12.9 1.57 1.63 1.71 1.79 2.61 7.1 2.61 6.66 6.95 1.71 1.78 1.93 2.03 2.75 2.83 14.8 8.2 2.09 2.42 3.22 16.9 9.2 5 5.64 5.84 6.47 6.59 7.40 0 1.43 1.49 1.54 1.59 1.82 1980 1990 2000 2010 2035 Source: Census data and MTA forecasts 11
Millennials and Boomers Changing the Region The Millenials (born after 1980) About 22% of regional population Entering the labor force Desire to live in urban settings Did not experience 70s decay Less interest or financial ability in owning a car A tech-savvy 24 hour lifestyle The Boomers (born 1946-1964) 26% of regional population Leaving the labor force Opting to retire in place Have the financial resources to relocate to urban areas for mobility/lifestyle Growing transit dependence More off-peak travel 12
16 Continued Employment Growth in the Region New Jersey Connecticut Mid Hudson Long Island 14 Other NYC Manhattan NYC MTA Region 12 4.99 10.2 Millions 10 8 6 4 3.40 2.83 6.8 0.80 0.93 0.74 0.90 1.09 4.1 1.33 1.34 1.40 3.68 0.98 0.97 1.46 1.60 3.75 1.01 1.07 1.54 1.90 8.2 4.6 1.29 1.40 1.87 2.44 5.7 2 2.78 2.57 2.68 2.71 3.23 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2035 Source: Census data and MTA forecasts 13
Growth in Industries Less Tied to the 9 To 5 Changes in County Employment by Industry 2000-2011 50% 30% 10% 10% 30% 50% Wst Nas Suf Manh US 70% Source: US Census County Business Patterns 14
Is a New Normal Emerging? Changing demographics and employment Growing transit use; peak hour travel flattening New 24/7/365 travel patterns spreading ridership to hours where capacity exists Transit travel to suburbs and among outer boroughs growing where capacity exists 15
Moving Ahead Prevent capacity and reliability backslide, maintain SOGR/NR Complete projects addressing longstanding problems Build full-length Second Avenue Subway Possible strategies to address current trends and support future growth: Overcome subway capacity obstacles Optimize the transit, commuter rail, and bus network Create a 21st Century transit system Develop a resilient MTA network 16
Complete Full-Length 2 nd Ave Subway Addresses Longstanding Problems and Continued Growth Crowding on the Lex 456 Access to transit on East side to support population and economic growth 8.5 Route miles 16 new stations 1 renovated station 2 services, Transfers to other subway lines Phase 1 (Existing) Lexington Ave / 63 rd St Station Phase 2 Phase 2: 96th Street- 125th Street Phase 3: 72nd Street- Houston St Phase 4: Houston Street-Hanover Sq. Phase 4 Phase 3 17
Overcome Subway Capacity Obstacles Develop network improvements to address future congestion points, e.g.: CBTC expansion Nostrand Junction Corridor capacity studies New entrances to address access at key stations 2035 Capacity Needs assuming committed network: ESA, full length SAS and 7-Line 18
Optimize the Subway and Bus Network Additional SBS service for intraborough/non-cbd travel with City commitment to street improvements Additional subway transfer points Possible use of abandoned / underutilized ROW for new non-cbd transit? 19
Optimize the Rail Network and Build New Markets LIRR Ronkonkoma 2 nd track Encourage infill development near stations and commercial hubs LIRR branch service opportunities MNR Penn Station Access West of Hudson capacity Penn Station long range capacity 20
Build a 21st Century Transit System Advance technological innovations expected by a new generation of customers Real-time information and displays in stations and on vehicles System-wide electronic fare and toll payment Accessible phone/wifi service Evaluate car/bus design approaches Open train sets (maximizes floor space) Wider, more numerous bus doors (speeds loading) Respond to flattening of peak and increasing off-peak travel demands Track maintenance windows Fleet requirements CBTC to expand capacity and reliability 21
Build and Operate a Resilient MTA A resilient transportation network is critical to the region s economic outlook Continued collaboration with regional, state, and federal partners Rebuild and strengthen critical infrastructure against future storms to improve resiliency of network Develop enhanced design guidelines that support resilient infrastructure 22
Next Steps Continue outreach to stakeholders September 2013 briefing on core capital needs to CPOC Publish Twenty Year Needs document Launch development of 2015-2019 Plan Present 2015-2019 Plan 23